UFC 264 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC 264? Sunday 11th July, 2021 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 264? T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 264? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 264
What channel is UFC 264 on? BT Sport Box Office (£19.99) BT Sport 2 (prelims)
Where can I stream UFC 264? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
Dustin Poirier vs Conor McGregor
Red Panty Night over a title fight makes sense for Dustin ‘The Diamond’ Poirier (28-7). He set up the trilogy after a phenomenal performance back in January handing Conor McGregor his first ever knockout loss. He has blossomed into one of the very best fighters in the division and if you ignore the loss to the lightweight ‘GOAT’ Khabib Nurmagomedov in September 2019, he is boasting a kill streak with the following monsters: Anthony Pettis (submission), Justin Gaethje (knockout), Eddie Alvarez (knockout), Max Holloway (decision), Dan Hooker (decision) capping it off with the knockout of McGregor – not even Nurmagomedov’s hit list is that impressive. Now the UFC vet is looking to make it 2-1 and then go on to finally wrap that title around his waist.
Conor ‘The Notorious’ McGregor (22-5) was a different animal at featherweight and made light work of Poirier back in 2014 but MMA life is tougher up the divisions especially when you are inactive. Since winning the lightweight title back in 2016 when he cleaned up Alvarez, McGregor has only fought three times – getting submitted by Nurmagomedov (2018), dusting Donald Cerrone (2018) and the loss six months ago. Poirer’s experience and cage time with the best in the division was an advantage McGregor simply could not match but now he has a chance to save his lightweight legacy and learn from his mistakes at UFC 264.
PREDICTION
Those mistakes were not preparing for Poirier’s leg kicks. ‘The Diamond’ can do everything from knocking you spark out to wrestling you down and wrapping up a submission, so he is very difficult to train for, but McGregor needed an answer for those kicks during the fight. He will no doubt have an answer prepared already in training camp, but Poirier has a whole arsenal ready to fire.
As you can see, McGregor’s power was too much in their first fight so he head-hunted until the knockout came. That threat is clearly still there as he hurt Poirier early in the second fight, but the vet homed in on the calf to disable him until he was a sitting duck.
If this goes five rounds you have to back Poirier. He not only has the cardio, but he has the experience winning five round wars over the likes of Holloway and Hooker as well as going four rounds with Gaethje before knocking him out. McGregor’s cardio is not as bad as people make out, but championship-round Poirier will be too much. He obviously is not going to submit Poirier, so he has to go for the knockout.
He certainly has the power and Poirier eats a lot of shots. The first round is going to be tense and McGregor will look corner Poirier against the fence with kicks to set up his missile of a left hand but that weapon will decrease in firepower as the rounds go on.
Poirier has the nous to fight smart for the first round. We can still expect his leg kicks but also a takedown if the fight goes past the third round. McGregor has underrated takedown defence but if his energy is sapped, Poirier will be able to take him down with ease and depending on how depleted he is, a submission will open-up.
We can see McGregor focusing too much on the leg kicks and get caught with something he does not see coming but we can also see him putting on a striking clinic. He has more speed, more power and is a more technical striker than Poirier. He even has the arrogance to employ his own game plan of calf kicks, so we are ready for a notorious showing.
However, if Poirier plays it smart, he will weather the early storm while keeping up a decent output and may look to grapple early to tire him out. For the first two rounds, McGregor’s straight left and uppercut could spark the beginning of a vintage TKO but if the fight goes past two rounds, expect a Poirier knockout or submission.
Prediction: Poirier via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Poirier via Submission
GILBERT BURNS VS STEPHEN THOMPSON
Kamaru Usman devastated Gilbert Burns (19-4) back in February. Not just physically but mentally as he was left heartbroken in the middle of the cage. He has had some time to reflect and is back hoping to pick up where he left off before the title fight where he strung together a phenomenal six-fight streak taking the scalps of Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Mike Davis, Alexey Kunchenko, Gunnar Nelson, Demian Maia and Tyron Woodley. The jiu-jitsu ace has become a weapon in every facet of the game and now faces a completely different test to get his title hopes back on track.
After going 1-3-1 between 2016-2019, many had written Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson (16-4-1) off. He fought to a draw and lost a majority decision to a prime Tyron Woodley in his title fights, earnt a classy unanimous decision against Jorge Masvidal but then lost a unanimous decision to Darren Till which could have easily gone either way. He was then on the receiving end of a shock superman punch knockout from Anthony Pettis who stepped up a division for the fight. After that run, he then had two super tough matchups against two of the most dangerous fighters in the division but lower ranked so he had a lot to lose. However, he showed his class once again by earning two more unanimous decisions over Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal snapping their colossal win streaks.
PREDICTION
Burns’s striking has come on leaps and bounds adding technique to his natural power and he was piecing Usman up on the feet. However, Usman’s jab and piston right hand broke him down until finishing him off on the ground.
Usman’s striking is effective, but it is very basic and if he can pierce the defence as easily as he did, you have to expect Wonderboy to have a field day with hist vast arsenal of punches and kicks. Burns has the power to cause a Pettis-style upset but Thompson is the most polished striker in the division and will have learnt from previous mistakes.
Expect Burns to test himself on the feet but he has to call upon his bread and butter and get his hands on Thompson. This will turn into a battle between one of the best strikers in the sport and one of the best jiu-jitsu practitioners in the sport.
Wonderboy has good takedown defence, and that karate movement allows him to bounce out of range before a finger gets put on him. He will also boast a four-inch reach advantage which will help him strike from range and prevent Burns from entering pocket where he is most dangerous.
Thompson is too illusive to get knocked out or taken down in the centre of the octagon so Burns needs to corner him against the fence and set up a clinch by bursting into range. If he can tie Thompson up, he can control him against the cage and if he can drag him onto the mat, Wonderboy will be in serious trouble.
So many outcomes are possible here but it all depends if Burns can close the distance effectively. If he can't get in the pocket or tie Wonderboy up, he will be absorbing a lot of damage from range which will test his suspect chin. Wonderboy can knock Burns out but over three rounds he will have to be more aggressive and considering the threat of the Brazilian on the feet and ground, it is likely to be a more calculated point match from the kickboxer. The only result we can not see happening is a Thompson submission.
Prediction: Thompson via Decision
Value Bet: Burns to win
TAI TUIVASA VS GREG HARDY
Tai Tuivasa (11-3) has rediscovered his mojo after dropping all three of his losses in a row. He was on top of the world after earning a unanimous decision over the legend Andrei Arlovski in 2018 but then met his match in Junior dos Santos who knocked him out to suffer the first loss of his career. He then lost a unanimous decision to Blagoy Ivanov and got submitted by Sergey Spivak. After a year out to lick his wounds and fill some holes in his game, he responded with a vintage knockout over Stefan Struve and made quick work of late replacement Harry Hunsucker back in March to rack up his 10th career knockout.
For all Greg Hardy’s (7-3(1)) flaws he is making a good crack of his MMA career and is clearly showing an appetite to improve and take on anyone in the division. Arguably, his most impressive feat so far in his young career was stepping up as a late replacement to fight Alexander Volkov and take him to a decision. It was a lobsided loss, but he impressed and followed it up by starting 2020 with a unanimous decision win over Yorgan de Castro and then knocked out Maurice Greene in October. He ended the year suffering his first knockout however, courtesy of Marcin Tybura proving he is nowhere the upper echelon of the division yet.
PREDICTION
The UFC have placed this fight very high on the blockbuster card expecting fireworks. The fuse may be long and the pace may be slow, but once they let their hands fly, fireworks is exactly what we can expect.
They are both incredibly dynamic and explosive. They may take a while to feel each other out, bopping just outside of range throwing feints attempting to get a read on each other before exploding into the pocket.
Hardy will boast a three-inch height and five-inch reach advantage, and we know all about his athleticism, so he has the ability to uncork some ferocious power and cause an upset. He is also continuing to evolve at American Top Team so he will be more calculated with adding in combinations.
Despite giving up some size and power, Tuivasa is the more seasoned striker and will have the better cardio. He also has one-punch knockout power, but the smart play will be to conduct a measured first round and then look to force the pace and find a home for his kettlebell hands.
Hardy is capable of an upset especially with the rate he is improving but we are backing Tuivasa to notch the 11th knockout of his career.
Prediction: Tuivasa via KO/TKO
IRENE ALDANA VS YANA KUNITSKAYA
Irene Aldana (12-6) received a harsh reality check in her last fight. After a unanimous decision win over Vanessa Melo and dishing out Ketlen Vieira’s first loss and knockout with a delicious left hook, she was on the cusp of a title shot if she got past Holly Holm. Many backed Aldana but the perennial top contender oozed her class once again, dominating every exchange and even landed five takedowns to walk away with a classic unanimous decision.
Yana Kunitskaya (14-5(1)) has gradually climbed the ranks and is now 4-2 in the UFC after her debut back in 2018. It was a debut that is hard to forget as she was summoned from Invicta as their bantamweight champion and fed to Cris Cyborg at featherweight. She showed a lot of courage to take the fight but was predictably erased in the first round suffering her first knockout. She returned down to her division and picked up unanimous decisions over Lina Lansberg and Marion Reneau before getting knocked out again by Aspen Ladd but is back on the unanimous decision train picking up wins over Julija Stoliarenko and impressively over Vieira.
PREDICTION
This is very interesting matchmaking as they both have the tools to expose each other’s weaknesses. Aldana has good takedown defence, but she can be controlled on the ground and Kunitskaya has made a habit of grinding out decisions by tying her opponents up.
Her only losses in the UFC have been knockouts where Cyborg and Ladd simply overwhelmed her with their power. She was actually winning her fight until Ladd decided to go into beast mode and Aldana has some of the most dangerous hands in the division.
Expect Kunitskaya to get a feel on the feet in the first round but as soon as she experiences Aldana’s power, she will shoot in or clinch up. It is the best tactic to nullify her weapons, but she will have to wrestle for three straight rounds.
We expect her to get the odd takedown and control time in the clinch, but Aldana will be able to sprawl and muscle her way out to create room on the feet where she will show her superiority. We expect this to go to the bell with Aldana displaying enough of her striking prowess inflicting more damage to earn the decision.
Prediction: Aldana via Decision
SEAN O’MALLEY VS KRIS MOUTINHO
Thankfully, Sean O’Malley (13-1) is still on the card after Louis Smolka had to pull out with an injury. He is a star of the bantamweight division and has still held on to his stock after getting TKO’d by Marlon Vera back in August last year. It was a pinpoint calf kick that hit a nerve and disabled O’Malley sparking the beginning of the end, but he picked up where he left off in smoking Jose Alberto Quinonez and Eddie Wineland when he met Thomas Almeida in March. He picked him apart and eventually put the Brazilian out of his misery in the third round.
Kris Moutinho (9-4) deserves a lot of credit for taking this fight, but he is being fed to the wolves here and surely there was someone else in the division that was able to step up to fight O’Malley. Moutinho is very experienced with a decent amateur background. He has applied most of his trade for Classic Entertainment and Sports MMA where he went 8-4. He got knocked out by Tony Gravely and Johnny Campbell in 2019 but responded with a knockout of his own against Ashiek Ajim. He then made his debut for Cage Fury Fighting Championships wrapping up a brilliant arm-triangle on Andrew Saiss and now all of a sudden, he is fighting on a Conor McGregor card.
PREDICTION
O’Malley is understandably one of the biggest betting favourites we have seen in a while so considering the odds, the only value is a small bet on Moutinho to win. However, there is only a slight chance of that happening and O’Malley will have to be extremely complacent to make a mistake.
O’Malley is still only 26 but he is one of the most polished strikers in the division and the combination of his technique, range and power make him a serious threat to any fighter in the division. He has a wide range of attacks targeting the whole body and he will have even more confidence here so we can expect a show.
Moutinho is a tough and aggressive fighter. He will also only be giving up two inches in reach, but O’Malley will tower above him, and he has the defence to get out of any trouble Moutinho will have to offer.
This should be a battering from O’Malley, and he is likely to open-up with leg kicks and then start to throw a flurry of flashy strikes – any of which could cause a knockout. Considering Moutinho has been knocked out twice already, it will only be a matter of time before O’Malley lands a killer blow. However, do not be surprised if O’Malley has the arrogance to look for a submission at some point.
Prediction: O’Malley via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Moutinho to win
CARLOS CONDIT VS MAX GRIFFIN
The resurgence we have all been waiting for as Carlos Condit (32-13) has pulled off two wins after losing five on the bounce which raised all sorts of questions for veteran and fan favourite. He was peaking on a stellar 30-8 record when he met Robbie Lawler for the welterweight title back in 2016. It was an epic war falling agonisingly short in a split decision. He then went on to get submitted by Demian Maia, outpointed by Neil Magny and submitted again by Alex Oliveira and Michael Chiesa. He is clearly past his prime with little time left on the clock, but he showed he still has class to offer earning unanimous decisions over Court McGee and Mike Brown who are both coming off good wins at the moment.
Max Griffin (17-8) is also coming off two good wins and arguably his most impressive. He has struggled to impress in the top half of the welterweight division and after dropping decisions to Alex Morono and Alex Oliveira he slumped to 3-6 in the UFC. However, he has just pulled out two incredible performances, almost elbowing Ramiz Brahimaj’s ear off (literally) and then pole-axed Kenan Song back in March to earn his eighth and ninth knockouts.
PREDICTION
Griffin has relied a lot on his wrestling attempting to grind out wins, but he has looked better after letting his hands (and elbows) fly. It suits him to be more aggressive but if he approaches this fight the same way it will suit Condit.
We all know about Condit’s skill on the feet. He has exceptional technique and throws unorthodox combinations effortlessly, striking with all eight limbs. If Griffin decides to back his hands, it will be very exciting for the fans, but you have to back Condit despite all the miles on the clock.
We fully expect Griffin to go back to his wrestling especially as Condit’s clear weakness is his takedown defence. We hope for a stand-up battle but expect Griffin to play it smart. He will make it a boring fight and wear Condit down for three rounds in the clinch, against the fence and hope to get him on his back to earn a decision.
Prediction: Griffin via Decision
MICHEL PEREIRA VS NIKO PRICE
It seems Michel Pereira (25-11(2)) is finally calibrating all of that raw talent. He is coming off two exceptional performances displaying a bit of nous for once. He dominated Zelim Imadaev back in September sealing the Russian’s fate in the third round with a submission and he followed that up with another measured performance three months later. He took on fellow slugger and showman Khaos Williams which was a real test of his temperament, but he avoided the brawl and gassing himself out to collect an impressive unanimous decision win.
Niko Price (14-4(2)) has never carried out a calm and measured performance but that is why we love him. His reckless style has created epic wars and his ability has allowed him to come out on top in many. He boasts knockouts over Randy Brown, Tim Means and James Vick which were broken up by brutal knockout losses to Abdul Razak Alhassan, Geoff Neal and Vicente Luque. After that three-round battering from Luque in May last year, he was given a deserved glamour tie with Donald Cerrone and it lived up to expectation. However, eye pokes from Price forced a draw which was later overturned due to a failed drugs test.
PREDICTION
Price has got to poke the beast instead of the eye and coax Pereira into a brawl. Pereira has looked great recently, unleashing his power and flair at the right time while mixing in takedowns to control the fight and pace himself.
That Pereira should cruise a victory over Price as he has the better technique and is more powerful. However, Price has a knack of bringing the dog out in fighters and if he can flick Pereira’s switch and force him into wild exchanges, throwing unnecessary flair, there where be numerous opportunities to find his chin and empty his energy bar.
If the fight goes to Price’s way, it will be a war and we would lean toward Price getting a late knockout. If it goes Pereira’s way, there will still be some thrilling exchanges, but the Brazilian will be in more control and throw in takedowns to make sure he wins the rounds.
Prediction: Pereira via Decision
Value Bet: Price via KO/TKO
RYAN HALL VS ILIA TOPURIA
Ryan Hall (8-1) finally gets a fight. The jiu-jitsu wizard has not had a proper chance to get his MMA career off the ground due to injuries, grappling commitments and the fact that nobody wants to fight him which makes sense as he is unranked but has one of the most dangerous ground games in the division. He is unbeaten in the UFC although he has only fought four times since his debut in 2015 with his last win coming two years ago winning a unanimous decision over Darren Elkins. Dan Ige was one of a few scheduled fights for Hall, but he had to pull out due to injury and fortunately, another winning contender has stepped up in time for the stacked UFC 264 card.
No wonder Ilia Topuria (10-0) has accepted the fight sitting on an unbeaten record and brimming with confidence after his first two UFC fights. He earnt a unanimous decision over Youssef Zalal on his debut and followed it up with a first-round knockout over Damon Jackson. Topuria also made a name for himself with his submission prowess with seven submissions and after that knockout, he feels invincible.
PREDICTION
Topuria is also an exceptional grappler and he will not be afraid to tangle on the mat however, Hall is a level above and he will still try and get the fight to the floor in his usual unconventional ways.
Topuria’s striking is a level above Hall’s and it continues to improve, getting better at harnessing his power to find the knockout. However, he can only find Hall’s chin if he can avoid the takedown attempts. Hall will look for single leg takedowns and Imanari rolls to attack the leg and set up other submissions from there.
If Hall does get the fight to the ground, Topuria has the ability to defend the submission attempts and could even land some damage from top position so it will be a very interesting battle.
If the fight goes to the floor, a submission could always be around the corner for Hall, but Topuria is more well-rounded and powerful. If he executes a well thought out game plan, he can earn a decision or even a knockout but one mistake could create a dent in that perfect record.
Prediction: Topuria via Decision
TREVIN GILES VS DRICUS DU PLESSIS
Dricus du Plessis (15-2) is coming off his memorable debut and knockout win over Markus Perez. It was a cagey round as Perez was controlling the fight, but du Plessis showed his killer instinct by countering a spinning backfist attempt and putting the Brazilian away. That win kept up his 100% finishing rate with six knockouts and nine submissions so all the fans are exciting for his first appearance of the year.
Trevin Giles (14-2) has responded brilliantly to his sole losses. He kickstarted his UFC career with two knockouts but then got submitted by Zak Cummings and Gerald Meerschaert. He bounced back by squeaking past James Krause in a split decision who stepped up last minute and followed that up with a knockout over Bevon Lewis and a unanimous decision over Roman Dolidze handing the Georgian his first ever loss.
PREDICTION
Du Plessis’ debut would have done wonders to his confidence. It looked like he was carrying some UFC jitters and he was not offering much at all for Perez until he pounced on a mistake. He will need all the confidence as Giles is a stud and this is a tough match-up for him.
Du Plessis will have an eye on Giles’ two submission losses and feel there is a route to victory there. However, Giles’ submission defence is underrated. Although he struggled against Krause who is a welterweight and had no time to prepare, he is a high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and Giles fended him off for three rounds.
That said, we expect the majority of this fight to remain on the feet. Giles can dictate it by being the aggressor and starting quickly like he did in the Lewis fight. He has the power to overwhelm du Plessis, but his fight IQ has never been his strong suit. If the South African settles early, he can get a read on Giles and get the better of the exchanges by offering a more varied attack with leg kicks.
This is a very tough fight to call and a knockout could fall either way considering their power but we feel this has the makings of a gritty violent battle on the feet with both guys having the durability to go to a decision with Giles sneaking home.
Prediction: Giles via Decision
JENNIFER MAIA VS JESSICA EYE
Jennifer Maia (18-7-1) seemed to emerge as a title contender out of nowhere. Maybe it is more of a reflection of how shallow the division is as she earnt a title shot coming off a one-fight win streak. Like many, she lost a unanimous decision to Katlyn Chookagian but then submitted Joanne Calderwood to earn a date with the Queen. She was inevitably trounced however, she took Valentina Shevchenko to a decision and even won a round with her wrestling to establish herself as a top ranked flyweight.
Jessica Eye (15-8(1)) has been slugging it out in the UFC for over seven years now and is still giving top fighters a run for their money. She earnt her title shot back in 2019 after a slightly more impressive three-fight win streak earning decisions over Kalindra Faria (split), Jessica Rose-Clark (unanimous) and Katlyn Chookagian (unanimous). However, she did not do as well as Maia getting absolutely obliterated with a head kick. She responded with an impressive unanimous decision over Viviane Araujo but is coming off two unanimous decision losses to Cynthia Calvillo and Joanne Calderwood.
PREDICTION
Eye’s problem has been her consistency and if she turns up on form, she will give Maia a very tough night displaying her experience and boxing. She has two inches in height and reach over Maia, but the Brazilian is also a technically sound boxer, so we should see some exciting exchanges.
Maia has great movement and will punish Eye with hooks if she does not move her head. However, Maia’s easiest route to victory is getting Eye on her back. Although she does not attempt many takedowns and only has 56% success, she is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and managed to subdue Shevchenko for the best part of a round who is one of the best grapplers in women’s MMA.
If the whole fight remains on the feet, it will be close but as soon as they tangle up, Maia will take the fight away from Eye and may even pull off another submission.
Prediction: Maia via Decision
OMARI AKHMEDOV VS BRAD TAVARES
Omari Akhmedov (21-5-1) continues to steadily add studs to his record. He has quietly gone about his business in the middleweight division and the only fighter he has lost to since 2016 is Chris Weidman who out wrestled him to a unanimous decision last August. After he got knocked out by Sergio Moraes (2015) and the Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (2016) he notched up decisions over Kyle Noke, Abdul Razak Alhassan, Tim Boetsch, Zak Cummings and Ian Heinisch including fighting to a draw with Marvin Vettori in 2017. He has fought once since his loss to Weidman, and it was a wild one for his standards and he came out victorious against Tom Breese submitting him in the second round.
Brad Tavares (18-6) has also added some studs to his win column over the years but has not quite been as consistent as Akhmedov. He made his UFC debut all the way back in 2010 and has a healthy record of 13-5. He has not been terribly active suffering injuries but between 2016-2018 he picked up four good dubs in a row over Caio Mahalhaes, Elias Theodorou, Thales Leites and Krzysztof Jotko. However, that forced him into Israel Adesanya’s path to the title losing a unanimous decision and then got knocked out by Edmen Shahbazyan. That was in 2019 and he returned in January this year to pick up a quality unanimous decision over Antonio Carlos Junior.
PREDICTION
This is low down on the card, but it will be high-level mixed martial arts. We expect the first round to play out on the feet and depending on how the exchanges go, Akhmedov will call upon his wrestling.
He has a clear advantage in the grappling department and Tavares is a slick and seasoned striker. Akhmedov is a quality striker himself and will test his skills but we expect Tavares to get the better of the exchanges, landing more significant strikes which will force Akhmedov to shoot in.
Tavares will make Akhmedov work very hard for the takedown as he has excellent defence, but we believe the Russian will manage to secure one at some point and maintain control on the mat. The longer he waits, the more openings Tavares will have but we are backing him to subdue him long enough to sway the judges for another decision.
Prediction: Akhmedov via Decision
ZHALGAS ZHUMAGULOV VS JEROME RIVERA
There were high hopes for Zhalgas Zhumagulov (13-5) when he made his debut. He was coming off a very impressive four-fight win streak under the Fight Nights Global banner and claimed some big scalps. He earnt two unanimous decisions over Shaj Haque (2017) and Tyson Nam (2018) and then handed Tagir Ulanbekov his sole career loss the same year. He capped off the streak by edging past former UFC vet Ali Bagautinov but he failed to follow those performances up in the UFC losing unanimous decisions to Raulin Paiva and Amir Albazi.
Jerome Rivera (10-5) has also failed to step up to the UFC level. He submitted Gene Perez (Jackson’s MMA Series) and Kendrick Latchman (Legacy Fighting Alliance) before earning a unanimous decision over Luis Rodriguez on the Contender Series to get the call-up. However, he is 0-3 in the UFC now getting knocked out by Nam on his debut, losing a unanimous decision to Francisco Figueiredo and then getting knocked out again, this time by Ode Osbourne in the first round.
PREDICTION
Both fighters have the pressure of fighting to save their UFC career, especially Rivera who will surely get the snip after four losses in a row. He will boast a significant six-inch height and reach advantage but has to make it count.
He has decent leg kicks which he mixes well into combinations and he has to set the pace with them. He will need to control the range by peppering Zhumagolov from a distance, circling with his jab and throwing heavy shots when the Kazakhstani steps into range.
However, Rivera’s lack of knockout power swings this firmly into Zhumagulov’s favour. He will be confident of walking Rivera down, closing the distance and being able to absorb his shots. Rivera throws a lot of volume, but Zhumagulov is the better striker and he has the technique to win the exchanges as well as having a takedown in the locker to sway the judges and earn a decision.
Prediction: Zhumagulov via Decision
ALEN AMEDOVSKI VS YAOZONG HU
Alen Amedovski (8-2) has had a rough couple years since making his UFC debut. In December 2018, he marked his second Bellator appearance by smoking Ibrahim Mane in 12 seconds to notch up his eighth knockout in a row stretching his perfect record. He made his long-awaited debut in April 2019 against Krzysztof Jotko but suffered his first loss via unanimous decision and then got paired with John Phillips five months later but got a taste of his own medicine in getting knocked out in the first round and we have not seen him since.
Yaozong Hu (3-2) is also coming off his first two losses in his first two UFC bouts. Although he does not have eight knockout wins in the bank, his last fight was in November 2018 and has served a 10-month ban for a failed drugs test. He started his professional career with a submission and knockout for the Daecheng Wuyi promotion in China and then earnt his second knockout over Abror Yakhyaev for Glory of Heroes. On his debut he got submitted by Cyril Asker up at heavyweight and then got outpointed by Rashad Coulter at light heavyweight to cap his unflattering record.
PREDICTION
Hu drops down to his more natural weight class. He is the bigger man and is five inches taller but will be giving up a two-inch reach advantage.
This fight may not last long as they both have blistering knockout power, especially Amedovski who only requires one touch of leather. The Macedonian will no doubt hunt the chin and Hu will be there to hit. His defence is average and if he backs his size advantage to eat his power and knock him out with his own, it could be the end of his UFC career.
If Hu can utilize leg kicks, constant head movement and mix in takedowns, he has a chance, but we are backing Amedovski to find the killer blow within two rounds.