UFC Vegas 30 - Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 30? Saturday 26th June, 2021 -19:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 30? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 30? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 30 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 30? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
CIRYL GANE VS ALEXANDER VOLKOV
The Ciryl Gane (8-0) hype train is at full steam after extending his unbeaten record by earning a classy unanimous decision over knockout artist Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Gane has gone from prospect to contender in no time. His fourth and fifth professional fight was only in 2019 where he submitted Raphael Pessoa and Don’Tale Mayes in his first two UFC appearances. The specimen went on to display all his attributes earning a unanimous decision over Tanner Boser and knocking out the former champion Junior dos Santos before his win over Rozenstruik in February.
Alexander Volkov (33-8) heads back to the APEX to steal the spotlight and remind everyone that he is one of the very best heavyweights around right now. His only two losses in the UFC (and in his last 11) were to Derrick Lewis where he bossed the whole fight before getting caught by a nuclear missile with seconds to go and Curtis Blaydes who implemented a boring but flawless game plan by keeping Volkov on his back for 25 minutes. Besides Blaydes, he has looked comfortable in every fight and is coming off two vintage knockouts over Walt Harris and Alistair Overeem.
PREDICTION
Gane has all the hype right now but let’s not forget Alexander Volkov is only a year older with 33 more fights and a Bellator and M-1 title in the locker.
Gane is the most promising fighter in the division as he has the highest ceiling. He is a quality kickboxer with ferocious power and also has a brilliant ground game. He is only eight fights deep into his career, but he has already swept past Junior dos Santos and executed a perfect game plan against Jairzinho Rozenstruik showing fight IQ and composure.
For these reasons, he is the favourite, but we are backing the underdog. Volkov is arguably the most polished striker in the division. Overeem has always held that mantle, but Volkov obliterated him. He uses his height and reach masterfully and uncorks his power when he needs to.
Interestingly, Gane will have a slight inch reach advantage despite giving up three inches in height. However, Volkov is one of few fighters who makes the most out of his leg reach. He will have five-and-a-half-inch advantage here which he will leverage via piercing front kicks to the body.
Volkov will still have to work hard to land as the Frenchman has great movement. Expect Volkov to keep peppering Gane from range and ready to throw knees and uppercuts down the middle when Gane closes the distance and that is Gane’s route to victory.
Besides that mental blip when Lewis decimated him, Volkov has been a step ahead in every striking battle so Gane needs to get the fight to the mat. He has an excellent ground game and needs to get Volkov on his back.
That is exactly how Blaydes won the fight but that said, Blaydes is a different calibre of wrestler and Volkov actually has decent takedown defence. So, Gane needs to be very patient in shooting in and he may decide to kickbox for the first couple rounds.
Here, we expect Volkov to win the early rounds which will force Gane to look for the takedown, but it is unlikely to be enough. We expect Volkov to keep the majority of the fight on the feet where the Russian will display his class earning a decision of late knockout to upset the odds.
Prediction: Volkov via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Volkov via KO/TKO or Decision
TANNER BOSER VS OVINCE SAINT PREUX
Tanner Boser (19-8-1) is still steaming after his split decision loss to Ilir Latifi three weeks ago. It was a very close fight where a couple takedowns swayed the judges but the best remedy for Boser is to get back in the cage as soon as possible. After knocking out Philipe Lins and Raphael Pessoa in consecutive months last year, Andrei Arlovski stifled the momentum with a unanimous decision loss and after the recent split decision, Boser has a chip on his shoulder and ready to let his hands fly.
Ovince Saint Preux (OSP) (25-15) was originally scheduled to fight Maxim Grishin, but his visa issues left him without an opponent. However, if OSP ever needed to prove how game he is, he has done once again by accepting a fight up at heavyweight on short notice. He has had a rough ride recently going 3-5 in his last eight. After a vintage Von Flue choke on Michal Oleksiejczuk, he made his first appearance up at heavyweight but lost a unanimous decision to Ben Rothwell. He responded with a majestic knockout over Alonzo Menifield but is coming off a disappointing knockout loss to Jamahal Hill.
PREDICTION
OSP’s last fight was disappointing because he decided to stand and trade with a knockout artist when he had a clear advantage in the grappling department. It was frustrating to watch and if he employs the same game plan, he is likely to suffer a similar fate.
Boser is a quality striker. He has heavy hands but moves like a 205er so he will be very confident taking on a light heavyweight. OSP is a big boy, but he has been preparing for Grishin so should be giving up some kg’s.
We know OSP is a beast on the feet and has knockout power, but he has to try and tie Boser up. Even though the Canadian is a heavyweight, he is likely to have the speed advantage and if OSP decides to stand and trade again, Boser will piece him and target his damaged chin.
OSP has a great chance if he approaches this smartly with a strategy, but we are not banking on that at all and predict a Boser win and potential knockout.
Prediction: Boser via KO/TKO
RAONI BARCELOS VS TIMUR VALIEV
Raoni Barcelos (16-1) has been deprived of attempting to extend his impressive nine-fight win streak. He only got to fight once last year after bouts with the likes of Merab Dvalishvili, Raphael Assuncao and Marcelos Rojo all fell through due to medical suspensions, COVID-19 and Assuncao having to pull out. Thankfully, he is back and hungry to continue where he left off after racking up his fifth UFC win. After dispatching Kurt Holobaugh on his debut, he dropped down to bantamweight and submitted Chris Gutierrez and knocked out Carlos Huachin. He then snapped Said Nurmagomedov’s seven-fight win streak with a unanimous decision and followed it up with another over Khalid Taha back in November.
Timur Valiev (17-2(1)) drops down to bantamweight looking to extend his own unbeaten run. Technically he is unbeaten in eight after his knockout loss to Trevin Jones was overturned after Jones popped for marijuana. That was his UFC debut and he treated it like a loss as he should, but he responded well returning six months later in February this year earning a unanimous decision over Martin Day.
PREDICTION
It is crazy that this fight is on the prelims as it will be a showcase of high-level mixed martial arts. They are both elite grapplers – Barcelos is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and National Nogi Championship gold medallist whereas Valiev is a Master of Sports in Sambo and Pankration which is a combination of boxing and wrestling founded in ancient Greece. Add in the fact they are both dangerous strikers, we are in for a treat.
As good as their grappling is, we can see it cancelling each other out forcing a stand-up battle. They have almost identical height and reach but Barcelos will be more confident on the feet as a more dynamic and explosive striker.
Expect Barcelos to be the aggressor, pressing the action and forcing Valiev on the back foot with leg kicks and combinations. Valiev is very durable and will back himself to absorb anything that comes his way while firing back with his own leg kicks and counters.
This is destined to be an even battle and the fight could be decided by whoever can throw in a takedown in between the striking exchanges. This is where Barcelos’ aggressiveness should swing the fight in his favour. If he can force Valiev back to the fence with powerful strikes, takedowns and clinches will open up.
Valiev is an exceptional fighter, but we are backing Barcelos to stretch the streak and hopefully go on to land a ranked bantamweight.
Prediction: Barcelos via Decision
ANDRE FILI VS DANIEL PINEDA
The seesaw career of Andre Fili (21-8) continues. He has kept active which is great but has failed to string three wins together since joining the UFC in 2013. He is 9-7 now but his losses have been to studs including the likes of Max Holloway, Yair Rodriguez, Calvin Kattar, Michael Johnson and Sodiq Yusuff. He lost a unanimous decision to Yusuff at the start of last year and responded typically well by edging a split decision against Charles Jourdain. However, that loss column filled back up in October losing a unanimous decision to Bryce Mitchell.
If Fili’s UFC career has been a seesaw, Daniel Pineda’s (27-14(2)) has been a rollercoaster, and not the most enjoyable one. He went 3-4 in his first stint in the UFC between 2012-2014 where his wins were impressive submissions over Pat Schilling, Mackens Semerzier and Justin Lawrence. After winning 10 out of 12 fights for Legacy, Bellator, Fury including a knockout and submission in Professional Fighters League featherweight quarter and semi-final which were later overturned to two ‘no contests’ due to a failed drugs test, Pineda earnt a second call-up. He marked his return last August with a brutal knockout over Herbert Burns but then got knocked out himself by Cub Swanson.
PREDICTION
This is a fantastic match-up and is likely to be a ‘Fight of the Night’ contender. They have both failed to cut it in the upper echelon of the featherweight division but they are both very skilled and well-rounded fighters.
The majority of the fight will be contested on the feet where Fili will be more technical and composed whereas Pineda will throw everything into his punches. The same can be said on the floor where Pineda has very aggressive jiu-jitsu.
Pineda’s aggressiveness often gets him in trouble and Fili has the composure and experience to not get embroiled into a brawl and instead counter with precision. Also expect Fili to have a leg kick heavy approach to slow Pineda down. Fili will look to batter Pineda’s calf and mid-section to lower his hands and hunt the dome with a head kick.
Pineda will come out the gate like a bull and he is worth a shout for an early knockout or knock down leading to a submission, but we are firmly backing Fili to get out the first round and then come into his own, dominating on the feet and using his wrestling to defend any takedown attempts.
Prediction: Fili via Decision
Value Bet: Pineda via KO/TKO or Submission
RENATO MOICANO VS JAI HERBERT
Renato Moicano (14-4-1) has had a tough couple years inside the octagon which is inevitable when you enter the murderer’s row of the featherweight division. He fought Jeremy Stephens in just his third UFC fight winning a split decision and then ran into title challenger, Brian Ortega and his guillotine. That was the first loss of his career, but he responded with a unanimous decision over Calvin Kattar and a submission over Cub Swanson. Opponents only got tougher as he spent 2019 getting beaten up and finished by Jose Aldo and the Korean Zombie. He then tried his hand up at lightweight and looked great submitting Damir Hadzovic in under a minute but then got handed an assassin in the shape of Rafael Fiziev getting sparked in the first round.
Poor Jai Herbert (10-2). He made his UFC debut against the old war horse, Franciso Trinaldo who missed weight by four lbs. He carried over his form and talent that helped him compile a six-fight win streak including four brilliant knockouts under the Cage Warriors banner and gave the Brazilian a good fight but was eventually knocked out but took unnecessary damage after Herb Dean stopped the fight way too late again. That was a year ago and as a reward, he has been handed Moicano.
PREDICTION
Moicano has lost three of his last four, but this is still a tough match-up for Herbert in just his second UFC fight. Moicano is a monster on the mat as a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu with submissions over Swanson and Hadzovic who are very good grapplers in their own right. He will have a clear advantage on the ground and is also slick on the feet as a black belt in Muay Thai. Combine this with his experience, the Brazilian is understandably a hefty favourite.
Herbert is a dog, and he has a great chance here. He is a better striker and will boast a five-inch reach advantage. He is a rangy, technically sound striker but also possesses knockout power and after getting slept twice down at featherweight and recently against Fiziev, Herbert has the ability to put Moicano to sleep again.
Herbert’s defence is suspect so Moicano may decide test himself on the feet again and in that case, a Herbert knockout will be a very attractive bet considering the odds. If Moicano calls upon his experience on the other hand, a takedown and subsequent submission will be there for him.
Prediction: Moicano via Submission
Value Bet: Herbert via KO/TKO
KENNEDY NZECHUKWU VS DANILO MARQUES
Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-1) is fresh off his thrilling two-round war and folding of Carlos Ulberg. He welcomed the kiwi to the UFC with violence and many expected him to lose, but Nzechukwu proved he is no joke on the feet. It came after an odd unanimous decision win over Darko Stosic and his sole loss to Paul Craig (submission) so he is gunning to build another streak, but it will be very hard to come by.
He takes on Danilo Marques (11-2) who is also fresh off one of the biggest wins of his career. He was 9-2 heading into the UFC but had not fought for 31 months and was yet to prove himself against any decent competition. However, he eventually made his debut in September last year earning a unanimous decision over Khadis Ibragimov and returned five months later to submit Mike Rodriguez.
PREDICTION
This is a classic striker vs grappler match-up. This will not be the highest level of fight so we can expect them to solely bank on their ‘plan A’. Marques will try and get the fight to the floor and look for a submission and Nzechkwu will leverage his range and power to get the job done on the feet.
Marques is a better striker than Nzechukwu is a grappler, but it will still be too risky trading with the Nigerian. He possesses a monstrous 83-inch reach, six inches on Marques and he will keep him at the end of his jab and look to offload his power straight left and right hook from his southpaw stance.
Marques took Ibragimov and Rodriguez down four times each and Stosic had the same success against Nzechukwu. Craig struggled only taking him down once in 16 attempts, but he managed to ruthlessly cinch up a triangle.
The fight is Nzechukwu’s if he can keep the fight on the feet, but we are backing the Brazilian to at least close the distance to get out of trouble and eventually get the fight to the floor and into his domain. If he has enough time in the rounds, he should grind his way to a submission.
Prediction: Marques via Submission
Value Bet: Nzechukwu via KO/TKO
SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV VS MICHEL PRAZERES
Shavkat Rakhmonov (13-0) is a prodigy and is finally starting to appear on everyone’s radar. The former M-1 and Kazakhstan MMA Federation welterweight champion made his UFC debut last October filling in for Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos to take on the veteran Alex Oliveira. It was his toughest test to date but made light work of the Brazilian. He chopped him down with leg kicks, hurt him on the feet and cinched up a perfect guillotine in the first round.
Up until 2019, Michel Prazeres (26-3) was storming his way towards a title shot. He was riding an eight-fight win streak including a unanimous decision over Gilbert Burns on his debut and capping it with a submission on Bartosz Fabinski. Ismail Naurdiev eventually snapped the streak in February 2019 and then Prazeres popped positive by USADA and was banned for two years and is now ready for his comeback.
PREDICTION
The UFC are clearly not impressed with Prazeres’ substance abuse, so they have handed him a killer. Considering the lay off and Rakhmonov’s soaring form, Prazeres’ is the underdog. He is also a stumpy welterweight who has always struggled to cut to 170 lbs and will be giving up a significant height and reach advantage.
Rakhmonov will boast a whopping 10-inch reach and seven-inch height advantage and has the skill to really make it count. Prazeres will be well aware of this so expect him to call upon his bread and butter. He is a top tier grappler and high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt so he will do everything in his power to get Rakhmonov on his back.
Rakhmonov is also a beast on the mat but there is a question mark over his takedown defence so the grappling exchanges will be very interesting. If Prazeres can get his hands on the Kazakhstani, he has a chance, but he will have to walk through nasty jabs, elbows and knees. Given the seismic range discrepancy and Prazeres’ layoff/natural return, Rakhmonov is likely to keep up his 100% finish rate up before getting tied up.
Prediction: Rakhmonov via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Prazeres via Submission
MARCIN PRACHNIO VS IKE VILLANUEVA
Marcin Prachnio (14-5) finally picked up his first UFC win back in January. He had the worst possible start getting knocked out in his first three UFC fights. He had a good match-up for a debut, getting paired with the veteran Sam Alvey however, he got knocked out in the first round snapping an eight-fight win streak. Then, for some reason, he was handed one of the best strikers in the division, Magomed Ankalaev and was inevitably put to sleep again seven months after his debut in 2018. He emerged in August last year to take on Mike Rodriguez but suffered his third first-round knockout in a row. On the brink of the sack, he took on Khalil Rountree Jr as the underdog but displayed the class we saw at ONE Championship earning a unanimous decision.
Isaac Villanueva (19-10) had a similar start to his UFC career last year. He took on another veteran in the form of Chase Sherman but up at heavyweight and was knocked out in the second round. He dropped back down to 205 lbs to meet Jordan wright but was knocked out in the first round. However, he rediscovered his form against another struggling light heavyweight, Vinicius Moreira and racked up his 16th knockout.
PREDICTION
This is better matchmaking by the UFC especially as they are both coming off recent wins in response to losing streaks. That said, we are backing Prachnio to keep his streak going.
The Pole is slightly rangier and has the technique and speed advantage, but Villanueva is a big lump and packs a punch. Prachnio ate some heavy shots from Rountree, but his chin has to be compromised after those three knockouts and Villanueva only requires one touch of leather to walk away with another knockout.
As long as Prachnio can get out of the first round, we expect his cardio to enable him to throw more volume and land the more significant strikes to wear Villanueva down and find a knockout.
This is going to be a slugfest and considering their power and damaged chins, a knockout is very likely and can fall either way. Villanueva is the underdog so all the value is on him, but Prachnio should have the class to earn his second UFC win.
Prediction: Prachnio via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Villanueva via KO/TKO
JULIA AVILIA VS JULIJA STOLIARENKO
Julia Avila (8-2) is returning after her first UFC loss and really her first proper defeat. She mangled her finger to put a premature end to her fight with Marciea Allen back in 2018 for Invicta. After that, she went on a tear knocking out three of her four opponents. She earnt a unanimous decision on her UFC debut against Pannie Kianzad and quickly disposed of Gina Mazany but Sijara Eubanks proved to be the first hump in the road for Avila taking the unanimous decision in September.
Thankfully Julija Stoliarenko (9-4-2) is healthy again after collapsing on the scale before their original fight in March. It was scary to see her feint like that and it was a result of a gruelling weight cut. She is also looking to bounce back after her unanimous decision loss to Yana Kunitskaya in August. The Russian halted any progress in the UFC after the armbar machine racked up four armbars in a row for various promotions and a split decision over Lisa Verzosa before getting another shot in the big time. Stoliarenko’s first opportunity came in The Ultimate Fighter 2018 as a featherweight, but she came up short in the final against Leah Letson losing a split decision. She is a different fighter now and is desperate to prove it at in the APEX.
PREDICTION
Both women are finishers which will create an exciting scrap. After Avila got grinded out to a decision, we could see her go back to her old ways of firing out of the gate like a gun. That may not be a bad idea as Stoliarenko is a a very consistent and durable fighter.
The Lithuanian will be preparing for an early onslaught, and she knows if she can drag the fight into the second round and beyond, she can wait for Avila to tire and land a takedown. If the fight goes to the floor, Stoliarenko will be extremely dangerous hunting the submission and as she is a heavy underdog, she is well worth a punt.
But only if she can get out of the first round. If Avila catches Stoliarenko, she has the killer instinct to get the finish and her recent loss will give her extra fire.
Prediction: Avila via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Stoliarenko via Submission or Decision
DAMIR HADZOVIC VS YANCY MEDEIROS
It is fair to say Damir Hadzovic (13-6) has not quite lived up to his potential. He is 3-4 in the UFC with his consistency letting him down. He bounced back from getting clapped on his UFC debut by Mairbek Taisumov by welcoming Marcin Held’s takedown with a colossal knee. He then went on to lose to Alan Patrick, pick up two wins over Nick Hein and Marco Polo Reyes but he has lost his last two fights with a unanimous decision to Christos Giagos and is now coming off a submission to Renato Moicano.
The last three years have been miserable for Yancy Medeiros (17-7 (1)). He only fought three times and got knocked out by Donald Cerrone and Gregor Gillespie before losing a unanimous decision to Lando Vannata in February last year. This skid came after three very impressive finishes over Sean Spencer (submission), Erick Silva (TKO) and Alex Oliveira (TKO) and now the veteran hopes to prove those days are not behind him.
PREDICTION
Both fighters are at a crossroads and desperately need a win. They have also not been very active and considering the pressure of the loser potentially getting cut, we could see a very cagey fight.
This is not usually Medeiros’ style as a very slick and dangerous striker. He will also boast a five-and-a-half-inch reach advantage and he is expected to utilise by keeping Hadzovic and the end of his range.
The Bosnian will be very confident in this match-up especially as Medeiros is not expected to expose his takedown defence and keep this a striking battle. Even though the Hawaiian is coming off three losses, they were to exceptional competition and if this remains on the feet, we expect Medeiros to outland Hadzovic.
We expect this to be a close fight and we can see a knockout falling either way but a Medeiros decision is your best bet especially as the underdog.