UFC Vegas 31 - Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 31? Sunday 18th July, 2021 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 31? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 31? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 31 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 31? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ISLAM MAKHACHEV VS THIAGO MOISES
Islam Makhachev (19-1) is finally primed to take the torch from his close friend Khabib Nurmagomedov and dominate the lightweight division. His only setback came in his second UFC fight getting iced by Adriano Martins back in 2015. That loss and relative inactivity has kept a lid on the Khabib comparisons, but he is on a seven-fight win streak now and showing all the signs of a future champion. His knockout of Gleison Tibau in 2018 restored some hype and his grappling prowess has been in full display submitting Kajan Johnson before earning unanimous decisions over fellow elite grapplers Arman Tsarukyan and Davi Ramos. He then finally got a top ranked fighter in Drew Dober and Makhachev rose to the occasion with another submission.
Thiago Moises (15-4) has only had six fights but has fought a litter of monsters. He got paired with Beneil Dariush on his debut losing a unanimous decision, responded with a unanimous decision over Kurt Holobaugh but then got handed Damir Ismagulov. The matchups have still been tough, but he is now on a three-fight win streak submitting Michael Johnson and earning unanimous decisions over Bobby Green and most recently Alexander Hernandez in February.
PREDICTION
This is odd matchmaking from the UFC as you would have thought Makhachev would have been given a higher ranked fighter after the Dober win. Moises is a top fighter and a high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt so he will give Makhachev something to think about on the floor.
We have seen similar matchmaking as Ramos is also a high-level black belt, but the Dagestani proved he is not just a grappler. He showed impeccable striking defence avoiding every bomb Ramos threw only absorbing seven of Ramos’ 58 strikes. Makhachev also peppered him with his jab and straight left hand in an all-round very classy showing.
Moises will hope Makhachev decides to stand and trade again as he should edge the exchanges on the feet. He will also back his jiu-jitsu if the fight goes to the floor however, it is tough to see Makhachev land in any trouble.
He could get clipped and rocked falling into a submission, but he looks to have filled those holes in his game and we expect him to stick with his wrestling and nullify the submission threat by keeping Moises on his back and raining down ground-and-pound to seal a decision.
Prediction: Makhachev via Decision
MARION RENEAU VS MIESHA TATE
At 44 years of age, time is finally catching up with Marion Reneau (9-7-1) who has lost her last four fights – all via unanimous decision. Her last win was a submission over Sara McMann in 2018, wrapping her up in a triangle but she went on to get outpointed by Cat Zingano (2018), Yana Kunitskaya (2019), Raquel Pennington (2020) and Macy Chiasson back in March. Reneau is still one hell of an athlete but at 44 and only fighting only once a year against tough fighters, the odds are stacked against you.
One of the originals - Miesha Tate (18-7) dusts of her gloves and emerges out of retirement. We last saw her in 2016 where she lost a unanimous decision to Raquel Pennington. We all knew she could still compete at the highest level as a champion in her prior fight although she passed the torch to Amanda Nunes. But her retirement made sense after that performance as it was limp and she has a lot to offer out of the cage. Thankfully for the fans, she is back with a nice match-up.
PREDICTION
Tate will be rusty and may have lost a little speed and reaction time, but she can get away with it here. Reneau is a technically sound striker but does not have much to offer in terms of firepower and we expect soft striking exchanges to begin with, but the majority of this fight is likely to be a grappling contest.
Reneau is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but Tate is also very skilled on that mat and earnt most her success with her wrestling – skills that will not have left her. If the fight stays on the feet, Reneau can win the rounds point fighting, but the key factor here is her takedown defence which is 50% in the UFC.
She has been taken down in her last 10 fights and we expect Tate to secure a takedown in each round and keep her on the deck which will pave over any cracks in her game coming out of retirement.
Prediction: Tate via Decision
JEREMY STEPHENS VS MATEUSZ GAMROT
Jeremy Stephens (28-18(1)) is 33 fights deep into his UFC career and is still a killer, but he is more proof that staying afloat in the upper echelon of a UFC division is as hard as it gets. He has not won a fight since 2018 when he obliterated Josh Emmett fracturing his skull. He went on to get TKO’d by Jose Aldo, outpointed by Zabit Magomedsharipov and Yair Rodriguez after his first fight with the Mexican ended in a ‘no contest’ due to an early eye poke and then he got a taste of his own medicine when Calvin Kattar violently finished him with a murderous elbow. He is back for the first time since May last year, but he should have fought Drakkar Klose in April but inexplicably shoved him during the face-off injuring Klose’s back.
Mateusz Gamrot (18-1(1)) bounced back perfectly after suffering the first loss of his career on his UFC debut. Understandably, there was a ton of hype surrounding the first ever double simultaneous champion for KSW in Poland holding the featherweight and lightweight titles, but he ran into another beast. Guram Kutateladze filled in for Magomed Mustafaev and pulled off the upset winning a split decision. It was a deflating loss and Gamrot was handed another tough match-up in Scott Holtzman but he lived up to his reputation by knocking the veteran out in the second round.
PREDICTION
Stephens returns to lightweight for the first time since 2012 when he got knocked out by Yves Edwards. He will be undersized for the division, but his knockout power will be even more ferocious.
Gamrot is a very tough match-up for a welcome back to 155 lbs. He is a big and powerful lightweight who loves to wrestle. He is a good and simple striker, and he will look to utilise his movement to set up takedowns.
He will have to be calculated against Stephens however, as he will be able to get a read on Gamrot’s striking early with all of that cage time on the feet. Stephens will be the smaller man, but he will boast a slight reach advantage and he will look to keep the distance and counter with his blistering right hand.
Stephens will try and set up the right hand with leg kicks and it will be corked for when Gamrot shoots in. The Pole will have to be aware of the uppercut and if he has prepared a game plan in to get the takedown while avoiding Stephens’ power, he should be able to assume some control time.
If Gamrot backs his striking, the exchanges will be very exciting, but it will be a risky strategy. We expect him to take a more grappling heavy approach and he will have to work harder to take Stephens down than Holtzman.
We are leaning towards a hard-fought decision for Gamrot but Stephens as an underdog is a good shout.
Prediction: Gamrot via Decision
Value Bet: Stephens via KO/TKO
RODOLFO VIEIRA VS DUSTIN STOLTZFUS
Rodolfo Vieira (7-1) emerges out of the shame of getting submitted by Anthony Hernandez back in February. The shame is not getting submitted by Hernandez but getting submitted full stop. Vieira is one of the most decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu champions to grace the sport and went into that fight unbeaten having submitted excellent grapplers – Oskar Piechota and Saparbek Safarov in his first two UFC fights. He completely gassed out and Hernandez capitalized on an exhausted Brazilian to hand out a harsh lesson in MMA but most of all, Vieira’s pride will have taken a massive hit losing via submission.
Dustin Stoltzfus (13-2) is also coming off a rare loss. He was sitting pretty on a 10-fight win streak after passing his audition on the Contender Series. He only technically passed as he slammed Joseph Pyfer on his arm, forcing it out of the socket but he was awarded with a debut three months later in November last year. However, his debut did not go to plan as Kyle Daukaus snapped the streak with a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
Vieira will have surely worked on his cardio, but there is only so much it can improve in a short amount of time. He will approach this the same way and look to avoid the striking exchanges and be aggressive in searching for the takedown.
He hunts them tenaciously, but he will have to be cautious shooting in as Stoltzfus is a quality striker with good Muay Thai and he will be waiting to throw kicks and knees down the middle. He also has punishing leg kicks, but it will be too risky to throw them repeatedly as Vieira just needs to catch one to drag the fight into his domain.
Stoltzfus has good ground skills, but most fighters look like amateurs when tangling with the jiu-jitsu wizard. So, it will be a question of whether, Stoltzfus can defend the takedowns and tire Vieira out in the process of find a knockout on the feet.
Stoltzfus has a clear advantage on the feet, but he can only make it count if he can defend the takedown for a round at least. That said, Vieira only needs one to close the show and we are backing him to be more measured than his last performance, secure a takedown and rack up another submission. If this goes past the first round, the money will be on Stoltzfus.
Prediction: Vieira via Submission
Value Bet: Stoltzfus via KO/TKO or Decision
GABRIEL BENITEZ VS BILLY QUARANTILLO
We were supposed to see Gabriel ‘Moggly’ Benitez’s (22-8) first appearance of the year at UFC Vegas 25 in May, but he missed the featherweight limit by four pounds and the fight was cancelled. He returns in better shape and hoping to build on his knockout win back in December after losing two on the bounce to Sodiq Yusuff (TKO) and Omar Morales (Decision). It was an exceptional performance finishing Jaynes with a brutal knee to the liver to go 6-4 in the UFC which is surprising considering his potential.
Billy Quarantillo (15-3) has also shown a lot of potential and after winning his first three UFC fights, he was destined for big things in the featherweight division. He knocked out Kamuela Kirk on the Contender Series, submitted Jacob Kilburn on his debut, followed that up with a unanimous decision over Spike Carlyle and stretched his brilliant winning streak to eight by knocking out Kyle Nelson. However, he suffered his first setback in five years at UFC 256 in December losing a unanimous decision to Gavin Tucker.
PREDICTION
This has got to be a ‘fight of the night’ contender. They are both incredibly well-rounded, aggressive and exciting fighters and we should see a bit of everything in this scrap.
The fight will start on the feet where Benitez will throw an array of kicks and hopefully Quarantillo will have practiced checking leg kicks and Moggly arguably has some of the hardest kicks in the division. Quarantillo may try and counter the kick by catching a leg and securing a takedown.
He is an excellent grappler as a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and a huge gas tank, so he will be able to keep up a furious pace for three rounds and could take the fight away from Benitez by keeping his back in the fence and on the ground.
They are evenly matched everywhere but Benitez has that extra pop in his striking which will cause Quarantillo a lot of issues and similarly, Quarantillo can make this a grind my trying to chain takedowns together and tire Benitez out.
We cannot forget Benitez had a failed weight cut attempt only a couple months ago and was training for a different opponent. We could see the impact of this if Quarantillo gets his wrestling boots on. If he decides to stand and trade however, we would back Benitez all day.
Either way this is going to be a close one and we feel this will go the distance which will suit Quarantillo but do not count out a Benitez knockout.
Prediction: Quarantillo via Decision
Value Bet: Benitez via KO/TKO
DANIEL RODRIGUEZ VS PRESTON PARSONS
Daniel Rodriguez (14-2) makes the walk for the second time this year coming off his exciting scrap and unanimous decision win over Mike Perry. His clash in April came in response to his first UFC loss losing a unanimous decision to Nicolas Dalby which snapped a very impressive nine-fight win streak. Rodriguez put his name on the map after stepping up on short notice to submit and upset Time Means and went on to outpoint Gabriel Green and spark out Dwight Grant before running into the Dane. He was hoping to start building another streak adding Abubakar Nurmagomedov to the resume but unfortunately the Russian got injured.
His loss is Preston Parsons’ (9-2) gain as he has been gifted the opportunity to make his UFC debut. The odds are stacked against him, but he is a very tricky customer with all nine of his wins coming via submission. His first loss happened to be courtesy of Perry six years ago for House of Fame. He then picked up three wins before getting subbed himself by Valdir Araujo in 2017 for the Titan Fighting Championships. He is now coming off four subs for Combat Night and you know he will be trying to emulate Rodriguez with a short notice, upset debut win via submission.
PREDICTION
Rodriguez is obviously the better fighter and although he has good jiu-jitsu himself, he will want to try and keep the fight standing and display his superiority on the feet. The smart play would be to weather the early storm and fend off the takedowns for the first round and wait for Parsons to tire.
However, that is not in Rodriguez’s nature, and he will open-up strong with leg kicks looking to set up his right hand. Parsons can crack as well but expect him to clinch up whenever the distance closes. He is very dangerous in the pocket with elbows, and he will not be afraid to throw combinations and head kicks.
Parsons has little to lose and has never gone past the third round even with a full training camp behind him, so we expect him to empty the tank, exchanging heavy leather and pouncing on a takedown at any opportunity to set up a submission.
Parsons is dangerous but Rodriguez should have too much class in every area to make a mistake. He should be able to fend off the takedown attempts and if Parsons decides to stand and trade in the pocket, Rodriguez will make him pay.
Prediction: Rodriguez via KO/TKO
AMANDA LEMOS VS MONTSERRAT RUIZ
We suspected Amanda Lemos (9-1-1) would be a dark horse in the strawweight division and based on her last fight, it certainly looks like it. She got TKO’d on her UFC debut by Leslie Smith but that was at bantamweight – 20 pounds heavier than her natural class. She returned two years later after serving a drugs ban and submitted Miranda Granger down at 115 lbs. She followed that up with a unanimous decision over Mizuki Inoue and then made a huge statement in March taking on the experienced Livia Renato Souza and knocking her out in the first round.
Montserrat ‘Conejo’ Ruiz (10-1) also made a big impression in March. She filled in for Kay Hansen on short notice to take on Cheyanne Buys and dominated her with her wrestling earning a unanimous decision. That win topped up an impressive looking record but her first eight wins were on the Mexican regional scene which does not mean much. Her first leap was fighting Danielle Taylor for Invicta and she lost a unanimous decision to raise a few questions, but she has answered them so far by going on to submit Janaisa Morandin for Invicta and that impressive UFC debut.
PREDICTION
Lemos has some of the hardest kicks in the division and her power in general is frightening for a strawweight. She has legitimate knockout power which will be Conejo’s biggest threat but that will be completely nullified if her wrestling is on point.
Conejo’s is undersized for the division and will be giving up a four-inch reach and height advantage, so it is crucial she finds away to close the distance and get her hands on Lemos. If she can not find her way into the pocket or close Lemos off on the fence, the Brazilian will chew her up and spit her out.
Best case scenario for Conejo is to keep Lemos pinned against the fence and eventually drag her down to the canvas leveraging a head and arm throw hoping to to wrap up a scarf hold lock which she is very effective with. However, Lemos has good jiu-jitsu and should be able to defend the sub attempts if she lands on her back.
That said, the key factor here is Lemos’ power. She is a brute at strawweight and she should have the power to defend the majority of takedown attempts creating enough time and space to land dynamite with her hands and feet. Conejo is very tough and could easily drag this out to the bell, but we are going for a Lemos knockout but considering the odds, all the value is on a Conejo decision.
Prediction: Lemos via KO/TKO
FRANCISCO FIGUEIREDO VS MALCOLM GORDON
Francisco Figueiredo (12-3-1(1)) is coming off a dominant UFC debut win. The brother of the former flyweight champion, Deiveson is obviously not on his level and his record looked good coming into the UFC, but there not any impressive scalps. He was paired with Jerome Rivera back in January and cruised to a unanimous decision racking up four takedowns but Rivera is not UFC calibre having lost all four of his UFC fights so it remains to be seen how far the Brazilian can go in the division.
Malcolm Gordon (12-5) has also lost all of his UFC fights. He entered the UFC sitting on an impressive 12-3 record with 10 finishes, coming off three straight submissions. However, he got a taste of his own medicine on his UFC debut getting submitted by Amir Albazi and then got knocked out by Su Mudaerji four months later in November last year.
PREDICTION
Figueiredo was able to take Rivera down with relative ease and keep him there. Growing up wrestling on the beaches of Brazil with other farmers has turned him into a strong grappler like his brother and we can expect him to call upon these skills.
He was getting outclassed on the feet and ate a lot of strikes against Rivera which he cannot afford to do against Gordon. He possesses considerably more power and as Figueiredo keeps his hands low, the longer the fight stays on the feet, the more likely it is that Gordon will find a home for one of his hands and switch the lights off.
Figueiredo has the ability to ragdoll Gordon, but he will be vulnerable in between the takedown attempts with his poor striking defence. His wrestling is good enough to grind out another decision, but we expect Gordon to find the chin of the Brazilian at some point and considering the odds, he represents all of the value.
Prediction: Figueiredo via Decision
Value Bet: Gordon via KO/TKO
RODRIGO NASCIMENTO VS ALAN BAUDOT
Rodrigo Nascimento (8-1) has the test of responding to the first loss of his career. He stormed his way to 5-0 on the regional scene and was making the fight game look easy submitting Michal Martinek in the first round on the Contender Series. He followed that up by putting Don’Tale Mayes out of his misery with a rear-naked choke on his debut to keep up his 100% finishing rate. He was then paired with Chris Daukaus but he got stiffened with a beautiful left hook.
Alan Baudot (8-2) is also coming off a brutal knockout loss which was on the same UFC Fight Night 179 card as Nascimento and Daukaus. He stepped up on short notice to take on a giant leap in competition. Sergey Spivak dropped out of his fight with Tom Aspinall and Baudot had the courage to take the fight for his UFC debut, but it was a harsh lesson getting pummelled and finished on the ground by the Englishman.
PREDICTION
A Nascimento submission or Baudot knockout are your best bets here. Nascimento has heavy hands and a dangerous high kick, but Baudot will have a clear speed advantage.
However, he is a natural light heavyweight and fights again up at heavyweight against a big heavy grappler and Nascimento’s path of least resistance will be getting the Frenchman down to the canvas and working on a submission.
Baudot is skilled in judo but if Nascimento can grab a hold of Baudot, he will be able to get him to the floor or be able to reverse a hip toss. We do not back Baudot to execute a calculated game plan, so he really needs to pull out something special for a knockout.
Unless Nascimento gets caught, he should make this look easy.