UFC Vegas 29 - Full Card Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 29? Sunday 20th June, 2021 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 29? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 29? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 29 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 29? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
CHAN SUNG JUNG VS DAN IGE
Every fan and their dog enjoys a Chan Sung Jung (16-6) fight. ‘The Korean Zombie’ returns to put on another show but he would probably prefer a more active run. After five years out with injuries and mandatory military service he has gone 3-2. In his first fight back in 2017, he buried Dennis Bermudez in the first round and only returned 21 months later. He met Yair Rodriguez in an epic war and was about to win a decision until Rodriguez decided to pull out a backwards up elbow to crumple Jung with seconds to go. The Zombie managed to get two fights in 2019 and notched up two more knockouts and ‘performance of the night’ bonuses over Renato Moicano and Frankie Edgar. Roll on another year and Jung re-emerged but he came up against a prime Brian Ortega who seemed to evolve into a striker over night a earn a unanimous decision.
Dan Ige (15-3) is the Korean Zombie’s dance partner for the night and as much as he wants to put on a show, the win is all that matters. After losing his UFC debut to Julio Arce, Ige racked up six impressive wins. He earnt two split decisions in 2020 over Mirsad Bektic and Edson Barboza which is still baffling as to how two judges gave him the nod but it set up a fight with Calvin Kattar and unfortunately he was outclassed in a unanimous decision. However, he responded with arguably his best win to date by starching Gavin Tucker with the first punch he threw.
PREDICTION
Ige is full of confidence after that knockout and the Zombie struggled to get into the Ortega fight. If he is off the boil here, then Ige will keep up the pressure and put on a suffocating pace for five rounds.
They match-up very well. Jung is taller but they have a similar reach and they are both high volume strikers and very underrated grapplers. They are extremely well versed in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and judo however, this should be more of a stand-up battle.
Expect Jung to go about business as usual and rely on his chin and cardio to keep pressing forward with crisp boxing looking to connect with his power. As good as his chin is, it is there to be hit so expect Ige to counter and slow Jung down with leg kicks.
This is destined to be a a close and violent scrap. We can see some heavy trades from the bell which could end up in a knockout either way. The Korean Zombie’s last seven fights have been scheduled five-rounders and he is made for war. We back him to get the win with Ige’s chin forcing the judges to make the call but this is tough to call.
Prediction: Korean Zombie via Decision
ALEXEY OLEYNIK VS SERGEY SPIVAK
The old warhorse Alexey Oleynik (59-15-1) may finally be slowing down after a mere 75 fights, but he has made a habit of bouncing back after devastating losses. After getting knocked out by Curtis Blaydes (2017), he responded with submissions over Junior Albini (2018) and Mark Hunt (2018). He then clapped by Alistair Overeem (2019) and Walt Harris (2019) to bounce back with his 46th submission over Maurice Greene (2020) followed by a split decision over Fabricio Werdum (2020). He is now coming off his eighth and ninth knockout losses which were to Derrick Lewis (2020) and Chris Daukaus (2021), so will he return to life again or has father time finally caught up with him?
Sergey Spivak (12-2) has only had 14 professional fights, but he has amassed some quality experience already. He also tasted Harris’ gloves suffering the first knockout of his career on his UFC debut. He responded with a brilliant submission over Tai Tuivasa but he then suffered his second loss getting outpointed by Marcin Tybura. However, he is gaining some momentum again after winning a majority decision over Carlos Felipe and coming off a knockout over Jared Vanderaa.
PREDICTION
Both men are grapplers by trade and we know how Oleynik will approach this one. He will swing wildly from the hip hoping to land one of his unorthodox hooks, eventually create a scramble and drag Spivak to the ground and pounce on a submission.
Spivak also likes to set up takedowns with strikes so it will be interesting to see how he approaches this and whether he enforces his own game plan or looks to counter Oleynik.
Spivak just needs to get out of the first round unscathed. If he can avoid the looping bombs and defend the takedowns and chokes including Oleynik’s Ezekiel choke which he sets up on the feet, he should finish stronger. Spivak has better cardio and can really test that damaged chin.
If Oleynik can tie Spivak up or land on top, Spivak will be in trouble. At this stage of his career, he is not looking to play it safe, and his aggressiveness could get him in trouble. We can see an early finish falling to either man but if it goes past the first round, you have to back Spivak for a decision or late knockout.
Prediction: Spivak via KO/TKO
MARLON VERA VS DAVEY GRANT
Marlon Vera (16-7-1) returns after his three-round tussle with the King of Rio – Jose Aldo back in December. It was his biggest test inside the octagon and put up a good fight but was ultimately outclassed in a unanimous decision. It came after his high-profile TKO over Sean O’Malley where he pinpointed a kick to the top of the calf, hitting a nerve a finishing the fight with his killer instinct. That was in response to another unanimous decision loss which was to Song Yadong although he was unlucky to not get a nod from one of the judges at least so the Ecuadorian is now 10-6 and still in his prime.
Davey Grant (13-4) seemed to have transformed into a knockout artist after lockdown. He had a tough start to his UFC career. After making it to the final of The Ultimate Fighter 18, he got submitted by Chris Holdsworth. That was all the way back in 2013 and it took him over two years to return suffering from a series of injuries. He met Vera for the first time on his comeback and pulled off a unanimous decision. However, he then went on to get submitted by Damian Stasiak and Manny Bermudez suffering from more injuries in between. He scraped past Grigorii Popov in a split decision before the pandemic hit in and returned to starch Martin Day and Jonathan Martinez.
PREDICTION
Their first fight was over five years ago, and they have both improved since, but Vera has developed a lot further as Grant has battled injuries. Vera’s experience makes him the firm favourite to win the rematch and we are also backing him to seek vengeance.
Grant can easily cause the upset if he lands clean like he did on on Day and Martinez, but Vera should have too much class to make any mistakes. Like Grant, Vera is also a brilliant grappler so although this will be a competitive scrap with a mixture of striking and grappling, Vera should have the edge in every department and can win in a variety of ways.
Prediction: Vera via Decision
JULIAN EROSA VS SEUNG WOO CHOI
Julian Erosa (25-8) is experiencing a resurgence and it took three stints in the UFC to find it. He made his debut all the way back in 2015 winning a split decision over Marcin Wrzosek but then got knocked out by Teruto Ishihara. He picked up a few wins locally before knocking out Jamall Emmers on the Contender Series in 2018 to earn a second chance but went on to lose all three fights – Devonte Smith (knockout), Grant Dawson (unanimous decision) and Julio Arce (knockout). He got cut and then picked up another win for CageSport at the start of 2020 but returned stepping up on short notice to fight Sean Woodson. He was a huge underdog and ended submitting him with a brilliant D’arce choke. The UFC awarded him with another fight a took it with aplomb knocking out Nate Landwehr with a flying knee and now believes e will continue the momentum.
Seung Woo Choi (9-3) has not experienced quite the rollercoaster ride, but he has also turned his UFC career around. He received a baptism of fire on his UFC debut, taking on the beast Movsar Evloev on short notice. He lost a unanimous decision and then got handed Gavin Tucker getting submitted in the third round. However, he ended 2019 on a high after the two losses by earning a unanimous decision over Suman Mokhtarian. Choi did not return until February this year but earned a more impressive unanimous decision over Youssef Zalal and is now hoping to be more active and build a streak.
PREDICTION
This should be a very exciting clash as neither man likes to take a back step. Erosa will not be boasting his usual reach advantage as Choi is also a lanky featherweight. They are very similar physically and both well-rounded as quality strikers who can grapple.
This fight will most likely be decided on the feet and whoever can force the most volume and pressure. Erosa’s 5.72 significant strikes absorbed per minute is a worry especially considering Choi’s power and solid technique. If Erosa decided to stand and trade for three rounds, we can see him getting knocked out but if he plays it smart and mixes in takedowns, he can seal a decision or even pull off a submission.
This fight can go either way. Erosa is on a roll, but Choi can grapple himself and has the better technique on the feet. Choi is the underdog, so he is worth a punt for a knockout or decision, but we are backing Erosa to continue his momentum.
Prediction: Erosa via Decision
Value Bet: Choi via KO/TKO
WELLINGTON TURMAN VS BRUNO SILVA
Wellington Turman (16-4) returns after his surprise starching courtesy of Andrew Sanchez. After getting a four-fight win streak snapped on his UFC debut when Karl Roberson nudged a split decision, Turman bounced back with an impressive unanimous decision over fellow Brazilian Markus Perez. He was then paired with the grappler Sanchez and got smoked by a simple 1-2 to suffer the first knockout of his career.
It is now Bruno Silva’s (19-6) turn to make his UFC debut and it is about time. He has only lost once in his last 15 fights. That was a submission against Moise Rimbon (Phoenix Fighting Championship) back in 2016 and although he has only fought four times since, they were all savage knockouts. He put away Matheus Mussato (Katana Fight), Gennadiy Kovalez (Russian Cagefighting Championship) and Alexander Shlemenko (M-1) in the first round and finished Artem Frolov (M-1) in the fourth round but that was back in 2018 and we have not seen him since.
PREDICTION
Silva’s long layoff was due to a failed drugs test so despite all the potential, there are a lot of question marks over how he will turn up. It will also be interesting to see how Turman will look as he has not impressed so far in the octagon, but he is still only 24 years-old and still developing.
The first thing he needs to work on is his defence and head movement instead of relying on his chin. Silva has some serios power and if Sanchez can put him out with a simple combination, Silva will have a field day if he does not make any adjustments.
So, the striking exchanges will be interesting but expect a lot of clinch work instigated by Turman. He will try and pin Silva up against the fence and hope to drag him to the canvas and show off his jiu-jitsu skills.
Silva is the favourite and we can see him finding an early knockout if he comes out aggressive but he has not fought in over two years and we do not know how those banned substances helped him previously. So, all the value is with Turman and we are backing him to bounce back and secure a decision or submission.
Prediction: Turman via Submission
Value Bet: Turman via Submission
MATT BROWN VS DHIEGO LIMA
The stalwart Matt Brown (22-18) emerges for the second time in a year for the first time since 2016. That year, he fought three times losing every fight. He got submitted by Demian Maia and got knocked out by Jake Ellenberger and Donald Cerrone. However, he returned nearly a year later to pull off one of the most violent elbows you will ever see, cleaning Diego Sanchez’s clock in brutal fashion. He then followed that up with another brutal knockout to Ben Saunders, two years later in 2019. Any momentum has been stopped dead in its tracks after getting fed to the prodigy Miguel Baeza who knocked him out last May and he is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Carlos Condit in January.
Dhiego Lima (15-8) is also a vet who has had a rough ride in the UFC. He is 4-6 over his two stints the organisation and got a second chance after The Ultimate Fighter Redemption series making it to the final but he got submitted by Jesse Taylor. It seemed the writing was on the wall after he lost again – a unanimous decision against Yushin Okami. However, he resurged by knocking out Chad Laprise and then earning two split decisions over Court McGee and Luke Jumeau. He then got paired with Belal Muhammad and failed again to add a high-calibre opponent to the win column losing another unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
They are evenly matched in the stats department as you would expect from two well-rounded veterans. The only real discrepancy is their striking accuracy and shots absorbed per minute which could be the difference maker on the night.
Brown is more accurate with 54% to Lima’s 38% and considering Brown’s power, particularly at close range, Lima cannot afford to get caught in the clinch or on his back. The Brazilian also eats nearly for significant strikes per minute so he cannot let Brown get comfortable.
Lima needs to employ a lot of movement and fire off his leg kicks to disable some of Brown’s power. Brown has also shown a weakness to body shots so expect Lima to throw a lot of head strikes to raise the guard before landing a kick to the liver.
We can be safe in the knowledge that Brown will keep pressing forward and will have to be put down to get slowed down. Lima has power but it will be his kicks to the calf and liver that will be his most effective weapons.
This is bound to be a very close fight and although we expect both of them to wear a lot of damage, this will most likely end in a decision.
Prediction: Lima via Decision
ALEKSA CAMUR VS NICOLAE NEGUMEREANU
Aleksa Camur (6-1) got derailed in his last outing. After slaying his first four opponents via knockout, he got a shot on the Contender Series back in 2019. He met Fabio Cherant who was also undefeated at the time but he continued his destruction putting him away with a flying knee to earn the contract. He went to a decision for the first time on his debut but it was a solid performance against Justin Ledet. However, he then met somebody who could wrestle in the large shape of William Knight and got grinded out losing the unanimous decision.
Nicolae Negumereanu (9-1) also rampaged his way to a UFC opportunity. He was running riot in his local Real Xtreme Fighting promotion in Romania, winning his first nine fights and finishing all of them (eight knockouts and three submissions). He submitted Kaiman Kovacs and Dan Konecke before making his UFC debut but he also got out grappled in a unanimous decision loss.
PREDICTION
Negumereanu’s record looks very impressive, but his opponents looked suspect to say the least - nowhere near UFC level. His last fight against Safarov was also over two years ago and was the first time he had gone past the second round.
It is hard to say whether he has been found out or not, but Camur is out to prove he does not belong in the same cage as him. Camur is taller but will be giving up a four-inch reach advantage and considering Negumereanu’s power, he cannot take him lightly.
The Romanian’s biggest threat will be his grappling. We are aware of his submission prowess despite his previous opponents having little understanding of jiu-jitu, but he is also capable of a takedown. He is brutishly strong and if he can throw Camur to the ground and lands on top, he will rain down ferocious ground-and-pound while looking for a submission.
However, we are backing Camur to get back in the win column. He has taken some time off to fill the holes in his game and we expect him to bring an improved version of himself with his speed and technique proving too much for Negumereanu.
Prediction: Camur via Decision
Value Bet: Negumereanu via KO/TKO or Submission
VIRNA JANDIROBA VS KANAKO MURATA
Virna Jandiroba (16-2) is now 2-2 in the UFC after they matched her up with two of the best grapplers in the division. The jiu-jitsu ace arrived to the UFC unbeaten in her 14 fights with 11 submissions and filled in for Livia Renato Souza to take on one of the best wrestlers in the division and former strawweight champion Carla Esparza. She lost a unanimous decision, but it was a great fight trading takedowns. She then got back to old ways by submitting Mallory Martin and Felice Herrig but then got handed the best jiu-jitsu practitioner in the division, Mackenzie Dern. The grappling wizards cancelled each other out forcing more of a stand-up battle with Dern walking away with the unanimous decision.
Since getting submitted in her fifth pro fight by Rin Nakai at the Rizin 2016 Grand Prix, Kanako Murata (12-1) has bulldozed through eight more opponents. She was not fighting cans either with submissions over the likes of Lanchana Green (Rizin), Angela Magana (Rizin), Liana Pirosin (Invicta) as well as a split decision over Emily Ducote (Invicta) before making her UFC debut. She took on the veteran Randa Markos back in November and rose up a level seamlessly dominating with her wrestling.
PREDICTION
The UFC really do not want to give Jandiroba an easy ride as they match her up with another top tier grappler, this time, a decorated Japanese wrestler. Jandiroba is a decent wrestler herself, and it will be very interesting when the fight hits the ground.
Murata is undersized for the division, but she makes up for it with her power so she will try to win the clinch, get Jandiroba down and keep her on her back while defending the submission attempts. Murata has great jiu-jitsu herself but the Brazilian is a level above so she cannot afford to make any mistakes, even in top position.
We expect a lot of clinch work, sprawls and scrambles which will force portions of this fight on the feet. This is where Murata should have the edge. She has better technique and more power, but Jandiroba will make this a scrap.
We can see this fight turning out similar to Jandiroba’s fight with Esparza and will be a very even battle wherever it goes. Murata can win the striking exchanges and subdue Jandiroba to earn a decision, but she cannot afford to make any mistakes with the Brazilian’s jiu-jitsu. We are backing Jandiroba to to pick up a scrappy decision with a potential late submission, but a Murata decision is the value bet.
Prediction: Jandiroba via Decision
Value Bet: Murata via Decision
KHAOS WILLIAMS VS MATTHEW SEMELSBERGER
The Khaos Williams (11-2) steam train came to a halt back in December. He was riding an impressive eight-fight win streak and got his UFC career off to the perfect start last year. He took on Alex Morono for his debut and then Abdul Razak Alhassan nine months later in November starching them both. He was gaining some serious momentum and turned around only a month later to take on Michel Pereira but lost a close unanimous decision.
Matthew Semelsberger (8-2) is also building some momentum after winning his first two UFC fights. He racked up a split decision win over Zulkarnaiyn Kamchybekov (Cage Fury Fighting Championships) and two knockouts over Kristopher Gratalo (Maverick MMA) and Richard Patishnock (Art of War Cage Fighting) to earn the call-up. He got off to a solid start earning a unanimous decision over Carlton Minus and followed it up with his best to win to date – flatlining Jason Witt in just 16 seconds.
PREDICTION
This is going to be a thrilling scrap, however long it lasts. They both have one-punch knockout power, and they will not hesitate to pull the trigger. They will feel each other out at first, assessing the range but they will waste little time in entering the pocket to trade.
Expect Semelsberger to open up with inside and outside leg kicks hoping for Williams to expose his ribs for a body kick. Williams will not be deterred by Semelsberger’s power and he may even try to catch his kicks so he can fire off his straight right while he is off balance.
If Williams starts to land, Semelsberger may try and shoot in for a takedown or clinch up. Williams is very powerful and has good defence in the clinch. So, we can expect some heavy exchanges between the two broken up by Semelsberger enforcing his grappling.
We can see this being a war ending in a close decision, but a knockout is also very likely. They both have ferocious power in their hands and their ego will not let them retreat and focus on defence. Pereira frustrated Williams with his head movement but Semelsberger does not tend to move his head off the centre line which could be his undoing here.
Prediction: Williams via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Semelsberger via KO/TKO
JOSH PARISIAN VS ROQUE MARTINEZ
Josh Parisian (13-4) came into the UFC hot with a six-fight win streak, knocking out every opponent out in the first-round bar one. He fought for a variety of regional promotions and got the call-up after his second appearance on the Contender Series. First time around back in 2018, a spinning backfist knockout somehow was not enough to earn the contract but he made sure in August putting Chad Johnson to bed with a ruthless knockout. However, he failed his first UFC test against Parker Porter losing a unanimous decision so there are questions marks about whether he can hang in the organisation.
The same questions are hanging over Roque Martinez’s (15-7-2) head after losing his first two UFC fights. He came to the UFC with mixed fortunes for Rizin and Deep but was coming off knockouts over Seigo Mizuguchi (Deep) and Hideki Sekine (Rizin). However, he was completely outclassed on his debut getting mauled and submitted by Alexander Romanov and then made a quick return two months later later November but lost a unanimous decision to Don’Tale Mayes.
PREDICTION
Whoever loses will be lucky to keep their job here. They are not going to make a dent in the rankings anytime soon, so they need wins at this level just to keep their head above water.
Parisian will have a significant size and power advantage. He has to cut weight to make the 265 lb mark whereas Martinez is just an overweight light heavyweight. He will be giving up a seven-inch reach and six-inch height advantage and will make a difference.
Martinez has the edge in speed and cardio but as this is likely to be a slow-paced fight, we expect Parisian to land the heavier shots and leverage his weight in the clinch to control Martinez against the fence. He should be able to smother him and if he can secure a takedown, he will be easy prey for Parisian’s ground-and-pound.
Prediction: Parisian via KO/TKO
JOAQUIM SILVA VS RICK GLENN
After tearing up the regional scene, Joaquim Silva (11-2) had a great start to his UFC career back in 2016/17. He knocked out Andrew Holbrook on his debut and followed it up with a split decision win over Reza Madadi. However, he inevitably tasted the step-up in competition and has lost two of his last three. He lost a unanimous decision to Vinc Pichel, responded with another knockout, putting Jared Gordon out on his feet. He then ran into Nasrat Haqparast suffering the first knockout of his career in August 2019 and we have not seen him since.
Rick Glenn (21-6-1) has also been out of the cage for a hot minute recovering from injuries including hip surgery. His last fight was in November 2018 where he lost a unanimous decision to Kevin Aguilar. So, his last win was three years ago when he scraped past Dennis Bermudez in a split decision which came in response to losing a unanimous decision to Myles Jury, so he is 3-3 in the UFC now but like Silva, he just wants to get back in that cage and fight more regularly.
PREDICTION
Glenn makes his comeback up a division at lightweight which will be a more comfortable cut for him. It is great to see these two back, but it is hard to predict how they will show up after being on the sidelines for so long. They are both in their physical prime, but they have suffered a lot of injuries so only their training partners know what kind of shape they are in.
What we do know is that they are both exceptional strikers and the majority of this fight should remain on the feet. Glenn will not be boasting his usual reach advantage, but he will have four inches of height on Silva. Expect Glenn to fight long sticking behind his jab with Silva looking to counter with venom.
The Brazilian is expected to try and chop Glenn down with leg kicks and he is particularly dangerous off his lead left leg. They both have knockout power, but we expect a more attritional yet entertaining striking battle. Glenn has not knocked anyone out since 2016 but is yet to eat dust himself so we can see this going to the bell.
It can go either way and it is one to stay clear of from a betting point of view considering their layoff. Glenn could steal a couple rounds with the odd takedown and his output, but we are leaning towards Silva with his speed and power advantage.
Prediction: Silva via Decision
LARA PROCOPIO VS CASEY O’NEILL
Lara Procopio (7-1) returns to the APEX fresh off her unanimous decision win over Molly McCann. It was a huge win for her after not fighting since August 2019 where she lost her UFC debut. She was left to stew on that split decision loss to Karol Rosa for a long time and dropped down to flyweight on her return but dominated McCann with her grappling securing seven takedowns and controlled the whole fight with nearly 12 minutes of control time.
Casey O’Neil (6-0) made her debut in February, and it could not have gone better. After winning her first four fights for the Eternal MMA promotion and knocking out Christina Stelliou for UAE Warriors, she got the call-up and mauled Shana Dobson with her grappling and putting her out of her misery in the second round with a TKO.
PREDICTION
This is an interesting match-up between two grappling machines. Despite defending an armbar, Procopio spent most her last fight in top position, but O’Neill will not settle there and if she does land on her back, she will be aggressive with submission attempts.
That said, we can expect O’Neill to shoot in with her own takedown where she will try and pounce on the Brazilian’s back. We can expect a lot of scrambles as they both try and attain a dominant position which will also create time on the feet as they reset.
O’Neill will have a slight height and reach advantage and we expect her striking to have improved. She is only 23 years-old and we can easily see her bring a completely new and updated version of herself. Procopio will be a huge test and is the favourite for a reason and her power could earn herself enough control to steal a decision, but we have a feeling the underdog will prove to be the value bet.