UFC 263 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC 263? Sunday 13th June, 2021 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 263? Gila River Arena, Glendale, Arizona (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 263? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 263
What channel is UFC 263 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 263? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ISRAEL ADESANYA VS MARVIN VETTORI
Israel Adesanya (20-1) returns for his third middleweight title defence, but he is coming off a loss for the first time in his MMA career. After going 20 fights without a blemish, he accepted a super fight with the light heavyweight champion. He was the favourite, but Jan Blachowicz proved you need more than skill to hang to with big boys and he put all his weight and experience to good use, subduing Adesanya and walking away with a unanimous decision.
Marvin Vettori (17-4-1) finally gets the rematch he has been calling for since 2018 when they fought to a split decision. He thought he was robbed but he has done everything right since in the cage and has strung together five impressive wins in a row. He bounced back with two unanimous decisions in a row against Cezar Ferreira and Andrew Sanchez before submitting Karl Roberson. He followed that up with two more unanimous decisions over Jack Hermansson and Kevin Holland to earn the only fight he is interested in.
PREDICTION
Their first fight was a close scrap, but Adesanya was more illusive and landed the better strikes over the three rounds. He landed 57 significant strikes to Vettori’s 46 attacking the calf and body with kicks and whipping punches through the guard.
Vettori landed some decent shots of his own with his chin keeping him in the fight. He also landed two out of his six takedown attempts and we can expect him to shoot in more this time around.
When Vettori did manage to get Adesanya down, he was able to control him but did not inflict enough damage before Adesanya got back to his feet. We can see Vettori committing more his takedowns especially after seeing Blachowicz throw him around.
Vettori is clearly a good striker, but he cannot rely on his chin. Adesanya’s range, technique and accuracy will be too much over five rounds and he has only got better since amassing priceless championship experience. Vettori has also improved a lot since including his fight IQ, so we expect him to trade with Adesanya but pounce on a takedown at any opportunity.
There is no doubt, Adesanya will have been working on his takedown defence and get-ups after the Blachowicz fight. They were already decent, but Blachowicz just had too much weight and power. Vettori is not on Blachowicz’s level, but he does have a weight and power advantage. The question will be - can the Italian keep Adesanya on his back.
We expect him to be taken down, but he will not be able to keep Adesanya down for long enough to win three rounds. While they are on the feet, we expect Adesanya to be even more confident with all the range and data saved from their first fight. He knows what weapons Vettori has and he will be ready to leverage his six-inch arm and three and a half leg reach advantage again.
This will still be a close fight with Vettori assuming grappling control for portions of the fight and if he delivers a career-best performance and wrestles for five rounds, he has a chance. However, Adesanya’s piercing kicks to the calf and top of the knee will build up. Once Vettori’s movement begins to slow down, expect Adesanya to up the output firing off body kicks, head kicks and long punches to the dome. He will finish stronger, but Vettori’s granite chin is likely to force this to a decision.
Prediction: Adesanya via Decision
Value Bet: Vettori via Decision
DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO VS BRANDON MORENO
Deiveson Figueiredo (20-1-1) was finally halted during his title reign but he was only slowed down. He was defending his flyweight strap for the second time, and it was an epic fight ending in a draw. So, since his unanimous decision loss to Jussier Formiga back in 2019, he is still unbeaten and building an impressive streak including the names of; Alexandre Pantoja, Tim Elliott, Joseph Benavidez (x2) and Alex Perez.
It is crazy to think the UFC cut Brandon Moreno (18-5-2) in 2018. He lost two unanimous decisions in a row to Sergio Pettis and Pantoja, but he was still young and developing. He quickly returned fighting to a draw with Askar Askarov who has become the hottest prospect in the division. He then racked up wins against Kai Kara-France, Formiga and Brandon Royval to prove he is championship calibre.
PREDICTION
The narrative going into their first fight was whether Figueiredo could finish Moreno with his firepower or would Moreno weather the early storm and turn the fight around with his cardio. However, Moreno went toe-to-toe with the champion and Figueredo displayed some surprisingly good cardio himself creating a five-round war.
Figueiredo landed a staggering 137 significant strikes and Moreno matched him with 132. Moreno also landed four takedowns to Figueiredo’s two. The champion was landing the heavier shots which was swaying the judges, but he got a point deducted after an illegal groin strike in the third round.
If the fight is half as exciting as the first, the fans will be in for a treat, and we expect it to go a similar direction. Expect Figueiredo to open up with savage hooks to the body and head following up with elbows from range.
Moreno’s durability was incredible so it will be interesting to see if all of that damage he absorbed will compromise his chin. Either way, we can expect him to fire back back with his jab and head kicks.
Their defence will have to improve and do not be surprised if Moreno looks for more takedowns to tire out Figueiredo. However, the Brazilian’s explosiveness helped him spring up and burst out of the scrambles and his power and submission threat was also still there in the final round.
Their rehearsal will help the champion as Moreno delivered the best version of himself that night and we feel Figueiredo has even more to offer and if he is healthy and has a smooth weight, we can see him pulling off a finish.
Prediction: Figueredo via KO/TKO
LEON EDWARDS VS NATE DIAZ
Leon Edwards (18-3(1)) could not catch a break since the best win of his career earning a unanimous decision over Rafael dos Anjos back in 2019. Injuries, illness, dropouts and COVID-19 robbed him of many opportunities so he stepped up to fight Khamzat Chimaev when no one else would. However, typical of Edwards’ luck, Chimaev pulled out but, Belal Muhammad filled in. Edwards started the fight brilliantly and was cruising to a decision, but he poked Muhammad in the eye forcing a ‘no contest’. A nightmare but it seems he caught a break as his previously scheduled opponent has reappeared for the biggest name and fight of the Brummies’ career.
Nate Diaz (20-12) graces us with his presence for the first time since his loss to Jorge Masvidal back in November 2019. The doctor stepped in to save his face from falling off much to his annoyance, but it was a good stoppage. It is only the third time he has been finished in his whole career which is incredible considering the opponents he has fought. That win came off the back of fighting an in-form Anthony Pettis after three years out. The odds were stacked against him, but he put on a clinic cruising to a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
Interestingly, this has been turned into a five round fight which has historically favoured Diaz and his freaky cardio, but Edwards will relish this as it is another chance to prove he can perform at the highest level in the championship rounds.
We know Diaz has top tier durability, jiu-jitsu and volume boxing but he brings the same tools to every fight, they are just so good he beats most fighters. So, he is easy to predict, and Edwards will be working on a game plan that will most likely be based around leg kicks, body kicks, clinch work and devastating elbows targeting that scar tissue around the eyes.
Diaz’ weakness is eating too many shots and not checking leg kicks so Edwards will happily rack them up from his southpaw position which will also open up his liver. Edwards will also look to clinch as soon as the distance closes and either work on a takedown or fire off his elbow on the break.
We expect Diaz to be complacent and not feel threatened by Edwards’ weapons which will cause him to absorb a ton of damage. That said, once he finds his rhythm, his boxing and pressure is suffocating, and he will not let off the gas for 25 minutes so Edwards needs to enforce his will while respecting Diaz’ durability and also his jiu-jitsu if the fight hits the deck.
Diaz is worth a punt simply because he is a huge underdog, but we are backing Edwards for a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Edwards via Decision
Value Bet: Diaz to win
DEMIAN MAIA VS BELAL MUHAMMAD
After a brief resurgence following unanimous decision losses to Tyron Woodley, Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman, Demian Maia (28-10) showed life in the old dog by submitting Lyman Good, outpointing Rocco Martin and submitting Ben Askren. However, if you go on a winning streak in the welterweight division, you are going to run into a monster, and that monster was Gilbert Burns who handed Maia his first knockout loss since Nate Marquardt cracked him in 2009.
Thankfully, Belal Muhammad (18-3(1)) has recovered from that nasty eye poke accidentally inflicted by Leon Edwards back in March. He stepped up filling in for Khamzat Chimaev and he wanted a rematch, but he was losing that fight and Maia makes more sense. It is a great test for him, and he plans to pick up where he left off on that impressive four-fight win streak before the Edwards fight where he pocketed Curtis Millender, Takashi Sato, Good and Dhiego Lima into the win column.
PREDICTION
We know how skilled and technical these two are, but it is safe to say this will not be a ‘fight of the night’ candidate. Maia will try and get Muhammad to the floor and wrap up his 14th submission, but Muhammad has very strong wrestling which has been the Brazilian’s kryptonite.
Muhammad has never been submitted in his career but, if Maia grabs his back, it will be game over. However, we believe Muhammad’s takedown defence will be good enough to stay out of trouble. He has defended 85% of takedowns attempted on him in the UFC and we back him to fend Maia’s attempts off for three rounds.
So, this will keep the fight on the feet where Muhammad will have a clear advantage. We cannot see Muhammad landing knockout, but we can certainly see him winning some uneventful rounds after defending the takedowns.
Prediction: Muhammad via Decision
PAUL CRAIG VS JAMAHAL HILL
After going 2-4 in his first six UFC fights, many would have been surprised to see Paul Craig (14-4-1) go four fights unbeaten in the light heavyweight division. His last loss was in 2019 when he got smoked by Alonzo Menifield. He picked himself up and returned three months later to submit Vinicius Moreira. He then fought to a draw with the legend Shogun Rua, submitted Gadzhimurad Antigulov and is now coming off his successful rematch with Shogun, finishing him on the floor with a TKO.
Jamahal Hill (8-0(1)) steps out for his fourth UFC fight protecting his unbeaten record. Going unbeaten on the regional scene is not rare but his stock he knocked out Alexander Poppeck on the Contender Series, earnt a unanimous decision over Darko Stosic and folded and finished Klidson Abreu with a vicious knee to the body but it was later overturned to a ‘no contest’ due to testing positive for marijuana. He then got handed his first proper test in the shape of Ovince Saint Preux and passed it with flying colours finishing the veteran in the second round.
PREDICTION
Craig has never gone the distance and Hill has only gone to a decision three times so we can expect a finish here, but they will go about it in different ways. Craig is the submission artist and Hill is the knockout artist so we know what their intentions will be.
Craig will not be able to stand with Hill, but he will try and make it ugly and close the distance. If Craig can get a hold of him, it will be very interesting to see how Hill fares.
If the fight does go to the floor, Craig will rabidly hunt a submission and we would back him even though we have barely got a glimpse of Hill’s ground skills. Hill will hope he does not have to show us as he will home in on the chin with whatever limb is available.
He will throw knees and uppercuts as Craig shoots in and if the Scot obliges in trading for any length of time, Hill will eat him up. A Craig submission is possible especially with Hill’s weak takedown defence, but we are backing Hill to claim his fifth knockout.
Prediction: Hill via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Craig via Submission
DREW DOBER VS BRAD RIDDELL
Drew Dober (23-10(1)) was absolutely flying after three knockouts in a row. After finishing Marco Polo Reyes in 2019, he entered 2020 with the same intentions sparking out fellow knockout artist Nasrat Haqparast and then Alexander Hernandez four months later in May. However, he then ran into an Islam Makhachev shaped bump which very few lightweights are getting over right now. It was the fourth submission loss of his career so he will be grateful he has been paired up with a fellow striker.
Brad Riddell (9-1) is more than a striker, he is a top tier kickboxer and respected coach at training with champions, Israel Adesanya and Alexander Volkanovski. Riddell was scheduled to fight Gregor Gillespie back at UFC Vegas 22 but unfortunately, it was cancelled due to COVID-19 protocols. He is 3-0 in the UFC with all his fights going to a decision – Jamie Mullarkey (unanimous), Magomed Mustafaev (unanimous) and Alex da Silva Coelho (split) and they were all thrilling battles, so we expect another cracker here.
PREDICTION
It is hard to see this being anything other than a violent and technical war. They are two of the most polished strikers in the division and neither of them take a back step.
They match up very similarly physically ,but Dober will have the power advantage and before his loss to Makhachev, he was channelling all that power into ruthlessly finishing opponents with his hands.
Dober is also a southpaw and he will look to attack the lead calf which can cause destruction with his tree trunk legs. However, this means he will also be open to Riddell’s body kicks and the kiwi will look to set up a high kick when Dober lowers his hands. Riddell’s timing will have to be on point as when he commits, Dober will be waiting to uncork his left hand which can turn the lights off with one punch.
The exchanges are going to be fascinating and they both have the ability to knock each other out but their defence is also exceptional so we can also see a gruelling decision. In the last decade, Dober’s only losses have come to grapplers and as good as Riddell is, we are backing Dober to win another striking battle.
Prediction: Dober via Decision
Value Bet: Riddell via Decision
ERYK ANDERS VS DARREN STEWART
This fight is back on after Eryk Anders (13-5(1)) landed an illegal knee in the first round. It was a very frustrating end for both especially as Anders was coming off a limp unanimous decision loss to Krzysztof Jotko. Anders has struggled to get a run going in the UFC not winning more than two in a row. He is 5-5(1) now in the UFC and he is desperate to pick up where he left off in their fight and get back in the win column.
Darren Stewart (12-6(1)) was gutted after the ‘no contest’ but more because he was losing the round. He was also coming off a loss which was a hard-fought split decision to Kevin Holland and like Anders, he also has not won more that two in a row since joining the UFC and has a record of 5-6(2). He will never make it into the upper echelon, but he has a point to prove in this rematch and a win will be huge for him.
PREDICTION
Their fight did not last long but Anders clearly had Stewart’s number until he landed the illegal shot. He landed 43 significant strikes to Stewart’s 15 and also landed three takedowns.
Stewart showed good defence in Anders’ clinch, but he ate some big shots on the break which helped Anders eventually land the takedown. Anders was mixing in his bombs and knees perfectly with his takedown attempts and tie ups which Stewart had little answer for.
Stewart will be working on these answers, but it is so tough to make the kind of adjustments needed in such a short amount of time and we see this fight going in a very similar direction. Expect Anders to smother Stewart again and landing enough leather to put him away but do not count out the power of ‘The Dentist’.
Prediction: Anders via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Stewart via KO/TKO
LAUREN MURPHY VS JOANNE CALDERWOOD
After her best year in the UFC going 3-0, Lauren Murphy (14-4) returns firmly believing she should be next in line to take on the queen of the division. If she picks up another win, she has a strong argument but, in all honesty, she would just be another number in Valentina Shevchenko’s win column. Nonetheless, she is in the form of her life after knocking out Mara Romero Borella in 2019 and going on to earn a split decision over Andrea Lee, a unanimous decision over Roxanne Modafferi and a submission over Liliya Shakirova.
Joanne Calderwood (15-5) was on the cusp of a title shot herself before taking on Jennifer Maia. She also earned a split decision over Lee after losing a unanimous decision to Katlyn Chookagian but went on to get submitted in the first round gifting her shot to Maia. That was her only fight last year but she returned in January to fight Jessica Eye and pulled off a brilliant unanimous decision win.
PREDICTION
This is destined to be a very evenly contested battle. They are both warriors and are fully expected to trade punches, kicks and takedowns right up until the bell.
They are both well versed, but Calderwood’s strength is clearly her striking and in particular her Muay Thai and kicks. Murphy is a solid boxer and is also a good wrestler so expect Murphy to capitalise on Calderwood’s suspect takedown defence.
The fight will be close wherever it goes and as we see a lot in women’s MMA, when the fighters struggle to finish, takedowns are crucial in swaying the judges and this is where Murphy will have the advantage.
That said, Calderwood is capable of a takedown herself and should be able to avoid any damage on the ground. The longer the fight stays on the feet, the more you have to back Calderwood and her superior technique should help her land the better strikes to claim the rounds.
Prediction: Calderwood via Decision
Value Bet: Murphy via Decision
MOVSAR EVLOEV VS HAKEEM DAWODU
Movsar Evloev (14-0) is quietly climbing up the stacked featherweight ranks. After cleaning up the M-1 Challenge bantamweight division, he entered the UFC at 145 lbs on a new mission and so far, he has completed every task. He earned unanimous decisions over Seung Woo Choi, Enrique Barzola and Mike Grundy which finally got people talking as the Englishman is an accomplished freestyle wrestler. Evloev then followed that up with a split decision over Nik Lentz back in January.
Hakeem Dawodu (12-1-1) is also a highly touted featherweight prospect. The only loss on his record came on his debut getting submitted by Danny Henry back in 2018 but since then he has gone on an impressive five-fight streak edging some very tough battles. He scraped past Kyle Bochniak with a split decision before knocking out Yoshinori Horie and then went on to earn two more hard-fought split decisions over Julio Arce and Zubaira Tukhugov.
PREDICTION
This is a fantastic match-up as they are both soaring towards the top 10 rankings and have a clash of styles. Dawodu is an electric striker with knockout power and Evloev is an elite wrestler. That said, they are not one-dimensional.
Dawodu will look to keep the fight on the feet and counter with venom, whether that be hooks when Evloev throws the jab or straight punches when he throws leg kicks. Evloev is expected to still exchange on the feet, but it will be to set up a takedown.
Dawodu has an 85% takedown defence in the UFC, but he has not fought an out-an-out wrestler like Evloev before. We expect it to be a matter of time before the Russian lands a takedown so Dawodu needs to be aggressive and hunt the chin as Evleov will keep up a suffocating pace for 15 minutes chaining together takedown after takedown.
The Canadian has knockout power but we have not seen enough recently to suggest he can put Evloev away early, so we are backing the Russian to seal a decision with his grappling.
Prediction: Evloev via Decision
PANNIE KIANZAD VS ALEXIS DAVIS
Pannie Kianzad (15-5) is in the form of her life right now. After losing the final of The Ultimate Fighter 28, getting submitted by Macy Chiasson, she picked up an easy win of the local scene and returned to the UFC to lose a unanimous decision to Julia Avila. It seemed the writing was on the wall for her UFC career, but she has turned everything around with three brilliant unanimous decision wins over Jessica-Rose Clark (2019), Bethe Correia (2020) and most recently Sijara Eubanks back in December.
Alexis Davis (20-10) was part of the first crop of female fighters to blaze a trail in the UFC. She is not quite the fighter she once was and after three unanimous decision losses in a row to Katlyn Chookagian (2018), Jennifer Maia (2019) and Viviane Araujo (2019), one more loss could have been terminal to her UFC career. However, she bounced back up to bantamweight and earnt a unanimous decision of her own with a classy performance against Sabina Mazo.
PREDICTION
The Mazo win was huge for Davis, and she put all of her experience and power to good use. However, Kianzad will have the weight and power advantage here and she also has solid boxing so this is a tough fight for the veteran.
Davis needs to call upon her experience again and fall back on her grappling. Kianzad is full of confidence and has the edge on the feet with her speed and power. This will all depend on what their strategy is, especially as a finish is very unlikely.
We are backing Kianzad to sway the judges by winning the stand-up battle and inflicting more damage, but Davis has the ability to grind out a decision with her grappling if she decides to.
Prediction: Kianzad via Decision
CHASE HOOPER VS STEVEN PETERSON
After Chase Hooper (10-1-1) bounced back from an Alex Caceres schooling a year ago, he is hoping to build some more momentum in 2021. The submission ace extended his unbeaten record on his UFC debut with a flawless performance against Daniel Teymur, finishing the Swede off with a TKO in the fist round. It seemed he was fed Caceres for a submission, but the veteran reminded everyone of his class. Hooper was then paired with Peter Barrett back in September and he got back in the win column with a brilliant heel hook.
Steven Peterson (18-9) is also coming off a highlight reel finish but that was back in September 2019 and we have not seen him since. He flatlined Martin Bravo with an incredible spinning backfist which came with huge relief preventing a three-fight skid with unanimous decision losses to Luis Pena and Caceres. Those losses saw him go 1-3 in the UFC so that spinning backfist was a career saver.
PREDICTION
This is good matchmaking as Peterson has quality jiu-jitsu and takedown defence. We are all aware of Hooper’s strengths and intentions to get Peterson on the mat, so this will be a good test for him as the UFC look to build him up more gradually.
He will boast a four-inch reach arm and leg reach advantage which will help him more with his grappling as he will look to wrap Peterson up with a body lock while looking for a choke. We can expect him to shoot in for a takedown as soon as possible as even he knows that his striking is pretty woeful.
Peterson is very confident in his grappling especially as he has never been submitted but his easiest route to victory is keeping the fight on the feet and lighting Hooper up. Hooper will be relentless in his takedown defence so Peterson’s cardio will need to be on point.
So, this will all depend on whether Hooper can keep Peterson on the canvas and pull off a submission and if Peterson can defend the takedowns. This is one to stay clear of from a betting point of view and unless they battle it out on the ground, it will also be one to stay clear of from a viewing point of view.
Prediction: Peterson via Decision
FARES ZIAM VS LUIGI VENDRAMINI
Fares Ziam (11-3) heads to Arizona hoping to emulate Ciryl Gane in putting France on the map. He got a deserved call-up to the UFC after a five-fight win streak under different European promotions but lost his debut in September 2019 against Don Madge. It took him over a year to return and he had another tough match-up in Jamie Mullarkey but he picked up an impressive unanimous decision.
Luigi Vendramini (9-1) also arrived to the UFC with high hopes but lost his debut. It was back in September 2018 where he stepped up on short notice to fight Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos replacing Belal Muhammad. Few expected to him to pull off the upset and he ended up on the Brazilian’s highlight reel eating a flying knee. Like Ziam, he also took a while to return, two years in fact but he made up for lost time by hunting the chin of Jessin Ayari and finding it with a head kick in the first round.
PREDICTION
This should be a fiery scrap as they are both exciting and aggressive strikers. Ziam comes from a kickboxing background so he will try and keep the fight on the feet whereas Vendramini is also a strong grappler so we are likely to see him try and get Ziam on his back.
Ziam will look to maintain the distance and hurt Vendramini from range with his kicks. He has dangerous leg kicks and a piercing front kick. His range will help him to land boasting a five-inch height, two-inch arm and four-inch leg reach advantage so expect Vendramini to try and burst into the pocket and offload his power with strikes and eventually try and tie Ziam up to take him to the ground.
The Brazilian has very dangerous hands and is a beast on the floor. If you back him, expect a finish but we are backing the Frenchman to defend the majority of takedown attempts like he did against Mullarkey and win the fight with his volume and distance control.
Prediction: Ziam via Decision
CARLOS FELIPE VS JAKE COLLIER
Carlos Felipe (10-1) is back on the march after suffering the first setback of his career which came on his UFC debut. After storming to 8-0 with six knockouts for a variety of local promotions, he met Sergey Spivak and missed out on a majority decision. Three months later, he returned to fight Yorgan de Castro and cruised a unanimous decision, following it up with a much closer split decision win over Justin Tafa.
Jake Collier (12-5) continues his peculiar comeback at heavyweight. After three years out of the game, the former middleweight returned at heavyweight back in July last year. He took a quick beating by Tom Aspinall in what was a complete mismatch but five months later, he looked much better in a kinder match-up – outpointing Gian Villante in a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
Collier did look better but Villante has not looked UFC calibre for about five years, so it remains to be seen whether he can stay afloat in the heavyweight division. He still has very dangerous hands but with that extra timber, he struggles to keep up a pace past the first round.
Felipe gives up three inches in height and reach but he will have the speed advantage which will be crucial as we expect this to be a striking contest. We expect him to be more successful in the boxing exchanges while chopping down Collier with leg kicks.
This will be a slow-paced fight but the exchanges will be heavy so the course of the fight can change in an instant, however Felipe’s speed, output and leg kicks should be too much for Collier and could even set up a late finish,