UFC Vegas 26 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 26? Sunday 9th May, 2021 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 26? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 26? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 26 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 26? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
MICHELLE RODRIGUEZ VS MARINA RODRIGUEZ
Michelle Waterson (18-8) returns for her 11th UFC fight and although she has been in the upper echelon for years, she just has not quite made it into the top contender bracket. After three impressive decision wins over Cortney Casey, Felice Herrig and Karolina Kowalkiewicz, she earnt a number one contender fight with the former Queen of the division Joanna Jedrzejczyk. She was ultimately outclassed losing a unanimous decision and suffered two losses on the bounce after Carla Esparza scraped another split decision. A theme of the strawweight division – it was her time to pick up a split decision which was over Angela Hill back in September.
Marina Rodriguez (13-1-2) took Waterson’s place back at UFC 257 after she had to pull out of her fight with Amanda Ribas and talk about making the most out of an opportunity. She was understandably the heavy underdog against the top prospect and after getting wrestled for the first round, she pulled off a brilliant knockout in the second. This also came after a split decision loss to Esparza which could have easily gone her way so there is no doubting the striker’s potential.
PREDICTION
This bout gets promoted into the main event slot and it is a huge whole to fill with Cory Sandhagen vs TJ Dillashaw falling through. These ladies will not draw in the same numbers, but it is a very exciting match-up and it is a great chance to prove their worth in a five-round fight. It is also up at flyweight which will suit Rodriguez more as Waterson is even undersized at 115 lbs.
They are both technically sound strikers with Waterson coming from a Karate background and Rodriguez a Muay Thai background so the stand-up battle will be fascinating. Rodriguez is the bigger woman and will boast a three-inch height and reach advantage.
Rodriguez has the momentum coming off that brilliant knockout, but Waterson has crucial five-round experience, and a key factor could be her grappling. She can wrestle with brilliant jiu-jitsu and we know how easily Rodriguez can be taken down.
That said, Esparza was lucky to earn a split decision with her wrestling heavy approach and we know what happened in the second round against Ribas. So, this will depend on Waterson’s strategy.
Rodriguez has the weight, range and power advantage so, her movement will have to be on point to avoid getting clipped or trapped in her clinch. If she decides to grapple, she will have to work hard for five rounds at maintain control.
As Rodriguez has never gone past the third round and was not preparing for 25 minutes, Waterson’s wrestling could make all the difference in the championship rounds wearing her out. So, if Waterson can mix things up and avoid getting hurt on the feet and in Rodriguez’ clinch, her wrestling can drain her energy to sway the judges.
Rodriguez will have a significant size advantage on the night which will make her power even more threatening and is why she is the favourite but Waterson’s wrestling could easily take the fight away from her. It is a tough fight to call and has split decision written all over it.
Prediction: Waterson via Decision
Value Bet: Waterson via Decision
DONALD CERRONE VS ALEX MORONO
Another year, another year of dustups for the legend Donald Cerrone (36-15(2)). He walks out for his 37th UFC fight and has averaged nearly four fights a year since his pro debut in 2006 which is freaky to maintain at the age of 38 after going through so many wars. It may be starting to catch up with him after going without a win in his last five. He went on a four-fight skid getting knocked out by Tony Ferguson, Justin Gaethje and Conor McGregor and losing a unanimous decision to Anthony Pettis but reeling off those names only makes you realize he is still fighting the best fighters in the world. Cerrone then hoped to bounce back against Niko Price back in September but they fought to a draw which later got over turned to a ‘no contest’ due to Price testing positive for marijuana.
Alex Morono (18-7(1)) keeps Cerrone on the card as he was originally scheduled to fight Diego Sanchez, but the UFC decided to cut him for reasons we are sure we will hear about soon. Anyway, this has opened the door for Morono to step up for his biggest ever fight. He fought three times last year and 2020 could not have started any worse. Khaos Williams assassinated him with a first round knockout to snap a three-fight win streak but he responded with a unanimous decision over Rhys McKee. However, he felt the difference in calibre as he then took on Pettis who swayed all three judges.
PREDICTION
This will certainly be a more even contest than Sanchez. Morono is in his physical prime and he is incredibly well-rounded. He is also taking on an ageing veteran who has not won in five fights and his motivation for this will understandably be less for this fight than his previous glamour ties.
Morono is a black belt in Taekwondo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu so he will bring it to Cerrone wherever the fight goes. The key for Morono is to be aggressive and force the pressure. He will not bring anything to the table Cerrone has not seen before so he needs to start strong and a good tactic would be to target the weakened mid-section of Cerrone. His cardio may also be an issue with a short training camp so expect a strong first round.
However, unless Morono can hurt Cerrone early ‘Cowboy’ should be too good and too experienced to get caught. If he is motivated, he should hurt Morono starting with his jab and then opening up with his ferocious kicks and smooth combinations. This is a great opportunity for Morono and he can easily capitalise on an unfocused Cerrone but we are backing the veteran who can win the fight in a variety of ways.
Prediction: Cerrone via Decision
Value Bet: Morono via Decision
NEIL MAGNY VS GEOFF NEAL
After getting knocked out and failing a drug test that kept Neil Magny (24-8) out for 16 months, he returned last year and made sure nobody had forgotten about him racking up three super impressive unanimous decisions against Li Jingliang, Rocco Martin and former champion Robbie Lawler. However, his resurgence took a hit when he met Michael Chiesa on Fight Island. He went into the fight as the favourite but got out grappled for three rounds to lose a unanimous decision.
Geoff Neal (13-3) is also coming off a loss stifling his momentum. He quickly became the bogeyman in the division after bulldozing through his first five UFC opponents. After flatlining Frank Camacho with a head kick, outpointing Belal Muhammd and then knocking out Niko Price and Mike Perry, everyone was avoiding him. Apart from Stephen Thompson who put on a technical clinic and outpointed Neal on the feet to earn a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
What a cracker of a fight this will be as both welterweights look to climb back up the rankings. Magny only loses to elite grapplers and knockout artists. Neal is not going to go for a flying triangle any time soon but he is a monster of a striker with devastating power in all limbs so we can expect him to hunt the knockout.
Although Magny has been mauled by the likes Chiesa, Rafael dos Anjos and Demian Maia, he is a top grappler himself and we can expect him to call upon his clinch and wrestling here. He will boast a familiar five-inch reach advantage and he will look to utilise it with his jab and tie his arms around Neal in the clinch.
Magny can win this fight by closing the distance, tying Neal up in the clinch and dragging him to the floor controlling the rounds. However, Neal’s power could be the game-changer here, if he can explode out of Neal’s body-lock and maintain the distance, he can catch Magny with one of his bombs.
Neal has decent wrestling himself but if he can use it to keep the fight on the feet, we back him to land power leg kicks, jabs and ultimately the killer blow, but he will have to start strong as Magny’s cardio can take the fight away from him in the later rounds. As Magny is the underdog, he is the smart money, but we are leaning towards a vintage Neal knockout.
Prediction: Neal via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Magny via Decision
MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA VS MAURICE GREENE
The former gatekeeper of the light heavyweight division, Marcos Rogerio de Lima (17-7-1) now punches the tickets for hopeful heavyweights seeking a new contract. Barring his first two UFC fights which he won, the Brazilian has endured a consecutive win-loss record since 2014 and is now 6-5 in the promotion. Since moving up a division in 2018, he outpointed Adam Wieczorek who has not fought since, got submitted by Stefan Struve, TKO’d Ben Sosoli who has also not fought since (both him and Wieczorek convicted of criminal activity) and is now coming off a dominant submission loss to Alexander Romanov who will be a force in the division.
Hoping a win will grant him residence in the division for at least one more fight, Maurice Greene (9-5) faces the gatekeeper after losing three out of his last four. After winning his first three UFC fights against average competition, he got knocked out by Sergei Pavlovich and then submitted by Alexey Oleynik. He bounced back with a strange submission over Gian Villante but then ran into Greg Hardy who knocked him out back in October.
PREDICTION
The route to victory for both men is clear and that will be for de Lima to hunt the knockout and Greene to drag the Brazilian to the mat and cinch up a submission.
Greene has a significant seven-inch reach and six-inch height advantage, but de Lima’s speed will enable him to negate that range and he has the technique to win the stand-up battle. He is a dangerous striker and his leg kicks will be his best weapon against Greene.
Greene’s reach will be more threatening on the ground as he tries to tie his long limbs together to choke and submit de Lima and that has got to be his strategy considering the glaring weakness and five submission defeats on de Lima’s record.
The longer this stays on the feet, the more likely de Lima will land a knockout but if the fight goes to the ground, Greene has a good chance of getting another submission and that is the value bet as he is the underdog but de Lima’s class on the feet should shine through.
Prediction: De Lima via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Greene via Submission
CARLOS DIEGO FERREIRA VS GREGOR GILLESPIE
Carlos Diego Ferreira (17-3) returns after getting his superb six-fight win streak snapped. The streak did not contain many glamour names, but he swatted away some beasts including Rustam Khabilov, Mairbek Taisumov (unanimous decision) and a submission over Anthony Pettis. He was steaming towards title contention until a rematch with a prime Beneil Dariush beckoned and he unfortunately fell short in another decision but a closer split one this time.
Gregor Gillespie (13-1) emerges from the shadows. He was not terribly active but when he was in the octagon he was like a rabid dog, steamrolling everyone. He won his first six UFC fights and was only getting better utilising his wrestling to finish the likes of Andrew Holbrook (KO), Jordan Rinaldi (submission), Vinc Pichel (submission) and Yancy Medeiros (TKO). He then met Kevin Lee who decided to bring out a new weapon to send Gillespie into the shadow realm landing a perfect head kick. That was back in November 2019 and after his fight with Brad Riddell fell through the week of UFC Vegas 22, Gillespie is finally back.
PREDICTION
After being out for 19 months, left stewing over one of the most violent knockouts in UFC history and then preparing for a striker in Riddell, Gillespie has now been handed one of the toughest matchups in the division.
Ferreira is a high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with incredibly underrated striking and will boast a three-inch reach advantage. He will look to test Gillespie’s confidence on the feet and although he is a warrior, that head kick will inevitably play on his mind.
Ferreira will back is striking and he will not mind being taken down as his jiu-jitsu is off the charts. This will be a real test of character for Gillespie and if he shows any hesitancy, Ferreira will make him pay.
That said, we expect Gillespie to come back strong and waste no time in shooting for the takedown. He is an elite wrestler and his cardio and aggressiveness allows him to find a knockout or submission but Ferreira’s is too good to get submitted and he should be too illusive off his back to get rocked with ground-and-pound.
Ferreira will not be easy to control, but we expect Gillespie to grind out a decision with his wrestling and cardio suffocating the Brazilian.
Prediction: Gillespie via Decision
Prediction: Ferreira via Submission
AMANDA RIBAS VS ANGELA HILL
The Amanda Ribas (10-2) hype train got derailed on Fight Island back in January. She was on a five-fight win streak and dominated her first four UFC fights including a unanimous decision over Mackenzie Dern and a ruthless armbar submission over Paige VanZant. However, after Carla Esparza and Michelle Waterson both pulled out of a fight with Ribas, Marina Rodriguez stepped up and snapped the streak with a brilliant TKO. It was another late and odd stoppage by Herb Dean, but it was a valuable striking lesson for Ribas.
Angela Hill (13-9) is keeping as active as ever. She fought four times last year and picked up two wins by February. She knocked out Hannah Cifers and earnt a unanimous decision over fellow Muay Thai specialist Loma Lookboonmee but went on to lose two very tight split decisions to Claudia Gadelha and Michelle Waterson. However, she bounced back with a comfortable unanimous decision over Ashley Yoder beating her for the second time.
PREDICTION
There will inevitably be question marks over Ribas’ chin after a knockout at strawweight and now she is up against another top striker capable of a knockout. However, this is still Ribas’ fight to lose and getting finished by Rodriguez could be a blessing in disguise for her future ambitions in the division.
She is a great striker herself but now she knows she cannot be complacent against more experienced strikers with a longer reach and Hill falls into that bracket. If she respects Hill’s offence and sticks to her bread and butter by taking Hill down, she will coast to victory.
The Brazilian’s grappling is on another level to Hill who has shown a clear weakness there and we expect Ribas to take her down at will and eventually wrap up a submission.
Prediction: Ribas via Submission
PHIL HAWES VS KYLE DAUKAUS
Phil Hawes (10-2) got three fights in last year and already makes his second outing of 2021. We first saw him on the Contender Series after two knockouts and a submission where he added another knockout to the tally, putting Khadzhimurat Bestaev away in the first round. He has now stretched his streak to six winning his first two UFC fights. They were not well-known names, but they are extremely underrated fighters in Jacob Malkoun and Nassourdine Imavov. He brutally knocked out Malkoun handing him his first ever loss and then in February, he earnt a majority decision over the Frenchman to snap his six-fight win streak.
Kyle Daukaus (10-1) is back on the winning trail after suffering the first loss of his career. However, he did not lose any stock in that loss as he stepped up on short notice to take on Brendan Allen for a UFC debut. The odds were stacked against him, but he put on a show. He eventually lost via unanimous decision but showed a lot of heart and that shone through again earning a unanimous decision over Dustin Stolzfus back in November.
PREDICTION
This looks like a striker vs grappler match-up on paper, but they are very well-rounded. Daukaus does not have one-punch knockout power but he is a dangerous southpaw with quick hands. Hawes is a powerhouse, but he can also grapple with an aggressive clinch that often leads to a takedown.
Hawes has a great level-change when he decides to take the fight to the floor, but Daukaus will welcome a scrap on the mat with his submission threat. He is very tricky on the ground but if Hawes decides to keep top control, he can keep Daukaus pinned on his back.
If Daukaus can create scrambles and land on top of Hawes however, the fight will be in his domain. That said, Hawes has the ability to keep the fight where he wants it. If he paces himself, he should be able to hurt Daukaus on the feet and then control him in the clinch and land in top position to offload ground-and-pound.
Prediction: Hawes via Decision
MICHAEL TRIZANO VS LUDOVIT KLEIN
Michael Trizano (8-1) suffered the first loss of his career two years ago and we have not seen him since. He looked like an exciting lightweight prospect after winning The Ultimate Fighter in 2018. He earnt split decisions over Joe Giannetti in the final and then Luis Pena four months later. He then decided to drop down to featherweight where he took on Grant Dawson but became his 10th submission victim.
Ludovit Klein (17-2) also earnt the top prospect tag after crowning a superb eight-fight win streak with a stunning head kick knockout over Shane Young on his UFC debut. He is an electrifying fighter flying the flag for Slovakia and all but one of his 17 wins have ended in a finish (eight knockouts and eight submissions).
PREDICTION
Klein is a tough fight for anyone let alone with a two-year lay-off. He will be as dangerous as always threatening a range of kicks from his southpaw stance. His Muay Thai will cause problems but Trizano is also a striker by trade and he will be preparing for that left high kick.
Considering they are both strikers and tend to eat shots, this is likely to be a war exchanging a lot of heavy leather. If Trizano has been more active and shown some decent wrestling he would be a good shout but as this is likely to stay on the feet, you have to back Klein and his explosiveness. Klein has the power to hand Trizano his first knockout loss, but we have a feeling this is going to be a violent battle to the end.
Prediction: Klein via Decision
Value Bet: Trizano via Decision
JUN YONG PARK VS TAFON NCHUKWI
‘The Iron Turtle’ Jun Yong Pak (12-4) returns after only fighting once since December 2019. That was a unanimous decision over Marc-Andre Barriault which came after a submission loss to Anthony Hernandez on his UFC debut. ‘The Iron Turtle’ is now 2-1 in the UFC after earning another unanimous decision over John Phillips, but he now hopes to be more active and work his way up the division.
‘The Cameroon Express’ Tafon Nchukwi (5-0) is also hoping to launch himself up the middleweight division. He has only had five professional fights, but he has already made some noise. He knocked out his first four victims which including William Knight for the Cage Fury Fighting Championships. He also flatlined Al Matavao on the Contender series which a monstrous head kick and continued the run by earning a unanimous decision over Jamie Pickett on his UFC debut.
PREDICTION
Park has the experience but Nchukwi is coming in with a five-inch reach advantage and successful Muay Thai background making him the slight favourite.
His power is devastating and once he gets into a rhythm with his elbows, knees and combinations ending with that chopping leg kick, Park will be in serious trouble. Park packs a punch himself, but he needs to mix in takedowns.
‘The Iron Turtle’ is a quality boxer and counter striker, but he cannot afford to risk eating shots considering Nchukwi’s power. Overall, Nchukwi’s power, range and weight should be too much for Park, dominating the clinch and hurting him with combinations and kicks but Park is worth a shout as the underdog especially as his durability should keep him in the fight longer than Nchukwi is used to.
Prediction: Nchukwi via Decision
Value Bet: Park via Decision
CHRISTIAN AGUILERA VS CARLSTON HARRIS
After completing a demolition job on his UFC debut finishing Anthony Ivy, Christian Aguilera (14-7) got choked back down to earth on his second UFC appearance clashing with the undefeated Sean Brady and falling into his guillotine in the second round. That was the seventh loss of his career, but he has fought decent competition for the Legacy Fighting Alliance
Carlston Harris (15-4) makes his UFC debut, but he has also fought some decent calibre fighters and boasts unanimous decisions over the likes of of Michel Pereira (2015) and welling Turman (2016). He is also coming off a brilliant win over Saygid Izagakmaev, wrapping him up in a d’arce choke to hand the Russian his second ever loss.
PREDICTION
Harris is also very handy on the ground, but this is a better match-up for Aguilera than Brady. Aguilera will come in with his boxing heavy approach and he likes to mix in takedowns but he will be wise to keep this on the feet and at a distance.
Harris can strike from range, but he is most deadly in the clinch and when he can cinch up a body lock to set up a submission. Aguilera has the power to land a knockout and hurt Harris with leg kicks, but his takedown defence is a worry.
If the fight stays on the feet you have to back Aguilera but if Harris can can get his hands on him, he has the grappling skills to subdue him and even pull off a submission but this is a very close fight to call.