UFC Vegas 25 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 25? Sunday 2nd May, 2021 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 25? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 25? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 25 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 25? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
DOMINICK REYES VS JIRI PROCHAZKA
Dominick Reyes (12-2) has dusted himself off after suffering the first two losses of his career and is hungry to get back on winning track. He earnt a title shot against one of the greatest fighters of all time after just six UFC fights. He erased Chris Weidman and then met Jon Jones as the heavy underdog. However, he put on an exceptional performance. He went the distance and won at least two rounds comfortably with many believing he won three. It was a great fight but disappointing result however, he was awarded with another title fight Jones vacated the title. He was paired with Jan Blachowicz and the Pole ran through with and finished him in the second round. It was the first time Reyes has been completely outclassed so it will be interesting to see how he responds.
Jiri Prochazka (27-3-1) is the challenger and he has been catapulted straight into the pile of contenders after just one UFC fight. However, he is clearly a weapon with star potential with a staggering 24 knockouts out of his 27 wins. He knocked out former title challenger Volkan Oezdemir on his debut which was his ninth knockout in a row. He has been fighting for Rizin since 2015 and is the former light heavyweight champion. His only loss in his last 23 fights was to Muhammed Lawal in the 2015 World Grand Prix final but he avenged the loss four years later with a knockout of his own.
PREDICTION
Prochazka was very patient, making the leap to the UFC when he thought he was ready and so far it has paid off as the UFC are fast tracking him towards a title shot but his should be his toughest test to date.
Prochazka will boast a three-inch reach advantage and he makes the most out of it with dynamic movement and technique. He is very aggressive and hunts the head and can be quite elaborate moving with his hands down, but his power is obviously no joke and Reyes cannot afford to eat many shots.
Reyes is also very dynamic but is a more orthodox striker. As Prochazka keeps his hands low and his weight on his front foot, Reyes will look to counter as he rushes in alternating between the calf, body and the head with his thunderous left kick. However, as Reyes is a southpaw, he will also be open to Prochazka’s kicks.
This should be a great fight with the majority of it taking place on the feet so considering their power, a knockout is likely. Expect the first three rounds to be very even but Reyes’ cardio and experience going five rounds with Jones should help him finish stronger. Prochazka is the favourite and we can easily see him getting a knockout but this is bound to be a close fight that could fall either way.
Prediction: Reyes via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Reyes via KO/TKO or Decision
CUB SWANSON VS GIGA CHIKADZE
Fan favourite, Cub Swanson (27-11) is back on the march after bouncing back from a four-fight skid. He has been fighting the best for over a decade now and ran into monsters. The skid started in 2017 getting submitted by Brian Ortega. He then lost a unanimous decision to Frankie Edgar before getting submitted again by Renato Moicano and then lost a split decision to Shane Burgos. However, he was then paired with jiu-jitsu phenom, Kron Gracie and crushed the hype with a classy unanimous decision. Unfortunately, he was then forced out for a year after tearing his ACL grappling in the Quintet Ultra with Jake Shields but came back in December to notch the 12th knockout of his career against Daniel Pineda.
Top prospect, Giga Chikadze (12-2) got four fights in last year although he did deal with a few dropouts. Either way, he is still undefeated in the UFC. He earnt split decisions over Brandon Davis and Jamall Emmers for his first two UFC outings and then won two more comfortable unanimous decisions over Irwin Rivera and Omar Morales. He returned less than a month later but it was a mismatch, picking the smaller Jamey Simmons apart before knocking him out in the first round.
PREDICTION
This is fantastic matchmaking with the prospect taking a step-up in competition against the veteran and stylistically, they are destined to put on a show. They are both quality strikers – Swanson fights in his trademarked unorthodox style and Chikadze fights long and will boast a four-inch height and reach advantage.
Expect Chikadze to try and maintain the distance by keeping Swanson at the end of his range with kicks. Swanson tends to eat a lot of leg kicks so Chikadze will be homing in on the top of the knee and calf.
Swanson will look to utilise his movement to get in the pocket and unleash unpredictable combinations attacking the legs, body and head but he needs to be the aggressor to close the distance.
This should be a very exciting battle on the feet and it is hard to count Swanson out with his durability, power and experience. However, unless Swanson throws in a few takedowns to expose the Georgian’s grappling, Chikadze should be able to win the rounds with his output landing more strikes.
Prediction: Chikadze via Decision
ION CUTELABA VS DUSTIN JACOBY
‘The Hulk’ Ion Cutelaba (15-6(1)) is back to put on another show. He is 4-5 in the UFC now but he is one of the most exciting fighters in the light heavyweight division. He was at his rampaging best when he knocked out Henrique da Silva, Gadzhimurad Antigulov and Khalil Rountree who he elbowed into oblivion after getting submitted by Glover Teixeira. He was then paired with Magomed Ankalaev but Cutelaba played possum so well that the ref fell for it and stopped the fight early. They eventually met their rematch eight months later in October, but Ankalaev removed all doubt of his striking superiority with a first round knockout.
Dustin Jacoby (14-5) is experienced but new to the big time after making his UFC debut in October last year. It came after a unanimous decision win on the Contender series against Ty Flores two months prior and he followed it up by chopping up Justin Ledet’s legs and putting him out of his misery in the first round. He has also managed to get a fight in this year in February and it was another successful return earning a unanimous decision over Maxin Grishin to extend his streak to four.
PREDICTION
Jacoby steps in for Devin Clark but this creates a more exciting match-up as these two powerhouses should create fireworks inside the small cage at the APEX.
Jacoby is the bigger, rangier fighter and coming from a kickboxing background, we can expect him to stand in front throwing a range of kicks to the body and legs. Not many decide on that tactic against Cutelaba as he is ferociously aggressive and powerful and needs little invitation to blitz through the middle hunting the knockout.
If Jacoby starts to land, we can expect Cutelaba to call upon his sambo by clinching up or trying to get Jacoby on his back to rain down ground-and-pound. Although he is reckless, he has the power to take the fight away from Jacoby in an instant.
If Jacoby can weather the early storm and bank some leg kicks early, the win will be there for him. He needs to feint and lure Cutelaba in and he has the tendency to bite on any bait.
However, if Cutelaba is more patient, and lands a couple takedowns, his knockout threat will be even more potent and vice vera, if he hurts Jacoby, he will be able to take him down at will. This really depends on what Cutelaba turns up but we are backing him for a knockout either on the feet or on the ground, but Jacoby is the smart money as the underdog.
Prediction: Cutelaba via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Jacoby via Decision or KO/TKO
SEAN STRICKLAND VS KRZYSZTOF JOTKO
After a motorbike accident requiring knee surgery kept him out for two years, Sean Strickland (22-3) is back and it was like he never left. His three losses were to savages – Santiago Ponzinibbio (2015), Kamaru Usman (2017) and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (2018) and after getting knocked out and highlight reeled by dos Santos, he responded by knocking out Nordine Taleb and then suffered the accident. He made his comeback moving up to middleweight in a kind match-up against Jack Marshman earning a unanimous decision and then clearly wanted to make up for lost time by taking on Brendan Allen a couple weeks later and finished him in the second round via TKO.
Krysztof Jotko (22-4) is on a resurgence of his own after a three-fight skid. He lost a split decision to David Branch to halt his momentum and then it got crushed by Uriah Hall and Brad Tavares with TKO’s. However, he bounced back with a unanimous decision over Alen Amedovski, a split decision over Marc-Andre Barriault and is coming off another unanimous decision over Eryk Anders which was nearly a year ago in May.
PREDICTION
They match up very similarly physically, but Strickland will have the power advantage. Strickland is an orthodox boxer and very efficient with his jab and short combinations so Jotko needs to make this an awkward and scrappy fight.
Expect him to mix in takedowns and keep moving from his southpaw stance. Strickland will be open for Jotko to land to his jab and leg kicks but Jotko’s lack of power should swing this in Strickland’s favour.
If Strickland can avoid the takedown and clinch he should have enough to hurt Jotko and even earn a late knockout but this will be a close scrap with Jotko holding all the value as the underdog.
Prediction: Strickland via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Jotko via Decision
MERAB DVALISHVILI VS CODY STAMANN
Merab Dvalishvili (12-4) is steaming towards the title trail and is now getting some top tier competition. After those controversial losses to Frankie Saenz (split decision) and Ricky Simon (submission) he has racked up five dominant unanimous decisions over Terrion Ware, Brad Katona, Casey Kenney, Gustavo Lopez and most recently John Dodson.
Cody Stamann (19-3-1) also relies on the judges with 11 of his 19 wins coming via decision. Besides that remarkable Suloev stretch Aljamain Sterling cinched up on Stamann, all of his UFC fights have gone to a decision. After that loss, he outpointed Alejandro Perez, fought to a draw with Song Yadong, bounced back against Brian Kelleher but is coming off his second UFC loss inflicted by Jimmie Rivera.
PREDICTION
Dvalishvili is a monster of a wrestler and this is an interesting match-up as Stamann is also a powerful grappler. They are the same height, but the Georgian will boast a four-inch reach advantage which will be important when clasping his hands together around Stamann when attempting the takedown.
Despite, Stamann’s grappling abilities, Dvalishvili is on such a level that he will fully commit to the takedowns and try and grind out another victory. Expect him to open-up with feints, short combinations and leg kicks to setup a takedown.
Stamann is very powerful and he will not be easy to take down but considering his lack of knockout threat, Dvalishvili will shoot in at will chaining his takedowns together and keep putting Stamann on his back with the cardio to keep up a relentless pace for three rounds.
Prediction: Dvalishvili via Decision
POLIANA BOTELHO VS LUANA CAROLINA
Poliana Botelho (8-3) is now 3-2 in the UFC but her losses were to two top-tier grapplers. After showcasing her savage striking in her first two UFC fights earning a unanimous decision over Pearl Gonzalez and finishing Syuri Kondo in the first round with a beautiful body kick, she ran into Cynthia Calvillo. Calvillo was one of the best grapplers in the division and now fights up at flyweight and it showed by cinching up a first-round submission. Botelho then moved up to flyweight herself and cruised past Lauren Mueller in a decision but then ran into Gillian Robertson. She did well to fend off the submission attempts but lost another unanimous decision.
Luana Carolina (6-2) is coming off her first loss since her professional debut and it was a brutal one. She took on Ariane Lipski in July last year and she pounced on a kneebar giving it a good wrench before Carolina screamed out in pain. It was a nasty way to snap a six-fight streak as well as the ligaments in her knee. Fortunately, it was only a partial tear to her ACL and now she is back and ready to pick up where she left off by beating Priscila Cachoeira on her debut.
PREDICTION
Botelho will be grateful she is not up against another grappler. Carolina also prefers to stand and strike and she is very good at it so we can expect an exciting scrap.
Carolina will look to throw hard kicks and clinch up when Botelho steps into range, but she has to be careful of Botelho’s power. Botelho is a specimen and although she is not a great grappler, she is strong in the clinch.
Botelho comes into her own when there is space and will relish trading with Carolina. Carolina will be very dangerous especially when she switches up her kicks, but Botelho’s power should make the difference in a close fight.
Expect a very tight and exciting stand-up battle with power and technique on display. We are backing Botelho to get the nod, but it can go either way.
Prediction: Botelho via Decision
Value Bet: Carolina via Decision
RANDA MARKOS VS LUANA PINHEIRO
Randa Markos’ (10-10-1) record has taken a pounding but that is the price you pay when fighting the majority of your career in the UFC. She was part of the first crop of strawweight fighters and has consistently fought top competition. Her last good win was submitting Angela Hill back in 2019 but she has gone1-4 since. She lost a unanimous decision to Claudia Gadelha, bounced back with a slit decision win over Ashely Yoder but has gone on to lose against three top prospects – Amanda Ribas, Mackenzie Dern and Kanako Murata.
Luana Pinheiro (8-1) hopes to climb into that prospect bracket and she is carrying all the momentum making her debut. She is on a six-fight streak with six first-round finishes including two submissions and a knockout for the Brave Combat Federation. She continued that form on the Contender Series back in November, knocking out Stephanie Frausto so after winning a decision on her pro debut, she has gone on to win all her fights in the first round.
PREDICTION
Pinheiro has rare finishing ability for a strawweight but taking on an experienced veteran will be the true litmus test of her abilities. Pinheiro is obviously very aggressive and will look to force the pressure again here.
She will try and walk Markos down with strikes and corner her against the fence to clinch up and eventually drag her to the canvas to unleash her ground-and-pound. However, Markos is very crafty on the ground and will be constantly looking for a submission.
Pinheiro has a clear power advantage, particularly in her hands. If the fight stays on the feet, you have to back the Brazilian and if she goes for the takedown, she has the power to pile on the damage in top position, but it will be risky to tangle with Markos.
Pinheiro has all of the momentum and should be able to overwhelm Markos but you cannot count out the huge discrepancy in experience so she has all the value as the underdog but Pinheiro’s aggressiveness should get the job done here.
Prediction: Pinheiro via Decision
Value Bet: Markos via Decision
KAI KAMAKA III VS TJ BROWN
After seven unanimous decisions in a row, Kai Kamaka (8-3) finally fell. It was his second UFC appearance and third fight of 2020, but he ran into Jonathan Pearce. It was a great back-and-forth battle but Pearce was just too much for Kamaka and eventually finished him with ground-and-pound. This came only two months after his successful UFC debut against Tony Kelley.
TJ Brown (14-8) is still looking for his first UFC win. He got his opportunity in the UFC by submitting Dylan Lockard on the Contender Series back in 2019 which capped a four-fight streak with two knockouts and two submissions. However, he got submitted by Jordan Griffin on his debut and then lost a unanimous decision to Danny Chavez six months later in August last year.
PREDICTION
Brown is the slightly bigger fighter with a two-inch height and three-inch reach advantage, and this should be an attritional battle with a lot of volume in strikes and takedown attempts but do not expect any highlight reel finishes.
They both love a takedown, but both have very average takedown defence we could easily see them swap some control time and in between exchange strikes on the feet. This should be a very close fight and whoever lands more in terms of strikes and takedowns will sway the judges.
Prediction: Kamaka via Decision
LOMA LOOKBOONMEE VS SAM HUGHES
Loma Lookboonmee (5-2) is coming off her most impressive win to date by beating Jinh Yu Frey with a unanimous decision. The Muay Thai world champion is one of a very few number of Thai fighters to delve into MMA and she has been thrown in to the upper echelon early in her career. She has a couple wins for Invicta, beat Aleksandra Albu with a split decision on her UFC debut and then was handed UFC veteran Angela Hill on just her sixth pro MMA fight. It made more sense the fact the Hill is also a striker with a Muay Thai background, but her experience and size showed as she earnt a unanimous decision.
With the same record, Sam Hughes (5-2) makes her second UFC appearance. She fought four times last year with three fights for the Legacy Fighting Alliance. She earnt a unanimous decision over Lisa Mauldin and then suffered the first loss of her career getting submitted by Crystal Vanessa Demopoulos for the Legacy Fighting Alliance but responded with a submission of her own against Danielle Hindley. She is now coming off another loss, but she stepped up on short notice to take on a rampaging Tecia Torres to become the veteran’s first knockout victim.
PREDICTION
Hughes is a striker but the clear strategy for her is to wrestle and exploit Lookboonmee’s lack of ground skills. The Thai has the edge on the feet and will look to unleash her kicks and tie Hughes up in the clinch offloading knees and elbows but she is there for the taking if Hughes takes her down.
The worry for Lookboonmee will always be her size in the strawweight division. She is more of an atomweight and she will be giving up some weight and range as usual here. So, if Hughes decides to grapple, she can find a submission or grind her way to a decision, but the matchmakers know she prefers to strike which will create an exciting stand-up battle where Lookboonmee should bag the rounds.
Prediction: Lookboonmee via Decision
Value Bet: Hughes via Submission
ANDREAS MICHAILIDIS VS KB BHULLAR
We have not seen Andreas Michailidis (12-4) for nearly a year since his UFC debut and it was a miserable outing for the Greek. He took on fellow debutant Modestas Bukauskas and after eating some thunderous elbows at the end of the first round, he was unable to continue. That was his second loss in his last nine fights where he has fought for a variety of promotions. His loss prior to his debut was in 2017 getting knocked out by Vladimir Mineev but he went on to rack up three brilliant knockouts in a row and he would love another at the APEX this weekend.
KB Bhullar (8-1) is also coming off a knockout loss on his UFC debut which was the first loss of his career. He was unbeaten with four knockouts and two submissions in the bank but the difference in competition was clear as he got pieced up and then dropped by a seasoned Tom Breese jab. He now has a great opportunity to prove his worth against another striker desperate for a dub.
PREDICTION
Bhullar has a four-inch height and two-inch reach advantage and needs to use it well and control the range as Michailidis has devastating power and if he can get Bhullar on his back, his ground-and-pound will be deadly.
If the fight stays on the feet, it will be very interesting. Bhullar should have the speed advantage and be able to see Michailidis’ spinning attacks coming but the Greek’s power should make all the difference. They have both been knocked out now, but we are backing Michailidis to land on Bhullar’s chin and walk away with the eighth knockout of his career.
Prediction: Michailidis via KO/TKO
LUKE SANDERS VS FELIPE COLARES
Luke Sanders (13-4) has struggled to stay afloat in the UFC waters since his debut back in 2017. He got finished in his first two fights getting submitted by Iuri Alacantara and then knocked out by Andre Soukhamthath. He prolonged his tenure with a unanimous decision over Patrick Williams but inevitably got submitted by Rani Yahya. He bounced back with a knockout over the former bantamweight king Renan Barao but that was part of his five-fight losing streak and now Sanders is coming off another submission loss to Nate Maness.
Felipe Colares (9-2) has also struggled so far in the UFC, but he has only had three fights. He arrived to the octagon unbeaten but felt the rise in competition as he lost a unanimous decision to Geraldo de Freitas. He responded with a split decision over Domingo Pilarte but is coming off another unanimous decision loss to Montel Jackson.
PREDICTION
This fight is at the bottom of the card for a reason as they have been bantamweight fodder so far, but this is up at featherweight and should be an exciting fight. This has also been stitched together on short notice after they both filled in for TJ Laramie, Damon Jackson and Journey Newson who all pulled out of the fight.
Sanders has not looked very impressive and has been finished in all four of his losses. Colares has been out for over a year since getting dominated by Jackson but he shown great durability and we are backing him to bag the rounds at least.
Colares also a slight height and reach advantage as well as a takedown in the locker which he is likely to utilise to find a submission and if he wins in dominant fashion, it will be curtains for Sanders’ UFC career.