UFC 262 - Full Card Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC 262? Sunday 16th May, 2021 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 262? Toyota Center, Houston, Texas (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 262? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 261
What channel is UFC 262 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 262? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
CHARLES OLIVEIRA VS MICHAEL CHANDLER
Charles Oliveira (30-8(1)) walks out for his first title fight after 27 UFC bouts, and it is thoroughly deserved. He has floated in between the featherweight and lightweight division going 18-8(1) but 155 lbs is clearly his class with a 11-3(1) record blossoming into a consistent killer riding an eight-fight win streak. Oliveira is also not shy on putting on a show with a plethora of records including the most submissions, most ‘performance of the night’ bonuses and the tied most finishes in UFC history with Donald Cerrone. He broke these records during his eight-fight streak where he was finishing opponents for fun including a submission over Kevin Lee and capped off the run with a unanimous decision over Tony Ferguson although he did do his best to take his arm with him during the fight.
Eight months ago, Michael Chandler (22-5) was walking out of the Bellator cage with his 18th win for the organisation. Now, he is fighting for one of the most coveted MMA titles of all time – the UFC lightweight championship. He was Bellator’s golden boy and former lightweight champion, but it was not smooth sailing. When he lost his title in a split decision to Eddie Alvarez back in 2013, he lost twice more – another split decision to Will Brooks and then got knocked out in the rematch. The decisions were controversial, but it sparked a pivotal change in mindset, and he went on to bag seven wins and the lightweight strap again sandwiched by that loss to Brent Primus due to injury. After regaining his title, he eventually lost it to Patricio Freire in 2019, but that loss only seemed to make him better, knocking out Sidney Outlaw and Benson Henderson. He then got the high-profile call-up to the UFC and the ultimate test. He was paired with Dan Hooker for his debut and aced it by knocking out the seasoned striker in the first round.
PREDICTION
What a fight we have and what an opportunity for both men to claim Khabib Nurmagomedov’s throne which he kept warm for three years. Stylistically, this is a mouth-watering match-up. We have the submission machine Oliveira whose long accurate striking has got more dangerous with each fight and the power wrestler Chandler with kettlebells for hands.
Historically, Chandler has relied on his explosive wrestling and jiu-jitsu to dominate the fight on the floor which disguises his threat on the feet. Oliveira will happily welcome a takedown as he will have the confidence to stretch his submission record. He will also back his three-inch reach advantage and range to win the stand-up battle.
Chandler will feel he can control Oliveira on the floor with his wrestling, but we expect his ‘plan A’ to be putting the Brazilian away on the feet. He has the speed and athleticism to explode into the pocket and land a calculated bomb. So, both fighters will believe they can get the job done on the feet and on the floor which will create a barnburner.
They are very different fighters, but very evenly matched. The game changer could be their cardio. Oliveira has never gone past the third round whereas Chandler has six times with title fight experience. A finish could fall either way early in the fight, but if it goes into the championship rounds, you have to back Chandler with a possible late finish on a fatigued Brazilian.
Prediction: Chandler via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Chandler via Submission
TONY FERGUSON VS BENEIL DARIUSH
Tony Ferguson (25-5) has lost his last two fights which inevitably means a lot of people are going to write him off. But let’s remember those losses were to Justin Gaethje and Charles Oliveira who were both in the form of their life and although ‘El Cucuy’ was outclassed, those losses came after one of the best winning streaks we have seen. He racked up 12 wins in a row which was the lightweight record at the time and included the likes of Josh Thompson (decision), Edson Barboza (submission), Rafael dos Anjos (decision), Kevin Lee (submission), Anthony Pettis (TKO) and Donald Cerrone (TKO).
Ferguson has now been fed another veteran who is in the form of his life in Beneil Dariush (20-4-1). After Dariush got knee’d into a different month by Barboza, drew with Evan Dunham and then got knocked out by Alexander Hernandez, it looked like the talented vet would never live up to his potential. However, he has proceeded to go on a six-fight tear including exceptional wins over Drew Dober (submission), Drakkar Klose (knockout), Scott Holtzman (knockout) and is now coming off a split decision win over Carlos Diego Ferreira to make it 2-0 against the Brazilian snapping his own impressive six-fight win streak.
PREDICTION
The co-main event is destined to be a banger. They are both absolute animals who can finish a fight however they want and as their defence does not quite live up to their offence, we are likely to see a very violent battle.
After going on a momentous win streak to then get brutally finished on the feet and then schooled on the ground, it is completely normal to experience self-doubt. However, Ferguson is not normal and as he operates on a different frequency to other fighters let alone the average joe, we cannot write him off just yet.
The damage Ferguson has absorbed will be a worry with Dariush’s knockout power especially as his preferred method of defence is to swallow his opponents’ fists. Dariush has all of the momentum and he will be confident he can hurt Ferguson on the feet like Gaethje did and out grapple him like Oliveira did.
If they decide to grapple, the scrambles will be thrilling but we expect the majority of this to play out on the feet and it could easily turn into ‘rock em sock em robots’. There are question marks over Ferguson now, but this is a good match-up for him as Dariush is also very hittable. They both thrive in scrappy fights, but Ferguson is made for it.
Their durability should drag this into the third round where Ferguson will be in his element with his unwavering cardio and he we fancy him to remind everyone he is still a dog with a late knockout.
Prediction: Ferguson via KO/TKO
KATLYN CHOOKAGIAN VS VIVIANE ARAUJO
Katlyn Chookagian (15-4) is becoming a great litmus test for somebody with title aspirations. She got absolutely mauled and dominated during her title fight with Valentina Shevchenko and got TKO’d again by Jessica Andrade lasering a devastating punch to the liver. Outside of losing to championship calibre opponents, she has looked exceptional. She earnt two comfortable unanimous decisions over Joanne Calderwood and Jennifer Maia before her title shot. She earnt another unanimous decision over Antonina Shevchenko in response before losing to Andrade and is now coming off another unanimous decision over Cynthia Calvillo who many thought would rise up to challenge Valentina.
If Viviane Araujo (10-2) can get past Chookagian then she is the real deal. The only time we have seen her slip up in the UFC was against Jessica Eye losing a unanimous decision. She knocked out Talita Bernado and earnt a unanimous decision over Alexis Davis prior to that and has notched up two more unanimous decision after the loss outpointing Montana De La Rosa and Roxanne Modafferi.
PREDICTION
This is a fantastic match-up between two contrasting strikers. Chookagian is all about volume popping orthodox long jabs, punches and kicks whereas Araujo has rare power for the division and looks to target the chin and calf with leg kicks.
Chookagian boasts her usual height advantage but they have the same reach so the exchanges will be very interesting. Araujo is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and it would be great to see those skills as Chookagian is a decent grappler herself.
On paper, Araujo should win the stand-up battle with her power and also has the grappling in her locker but Chookagian has a habit of winning close fights and she keeps up the same pace for three rounds which may be a weakness for Araujo.
This is a step-up in competition for the Brazilian, but it is a great opportunity to display that power and if she can out strike Chookagian, the UFC will surely throw her in a title mix. She is a great pick as the underdog, but this has split decision written all over it and Chookagian’s cardio and knack of swaying the judges makes us lean towards her.
Prediction: Chookagian via Decision
Value Bet: Araujo via Decision
SHANE BURGOS VS EDSON BARBOZA
We only saw Shane Burgos (13-2) once last year and that was a unanimous decision loss to Josh Emmett which snapped an impressive three-fight win streak. He submitted Kurt Holobaugh in 2018, scraped past Cub Swanson with a split decision in 2019 and then TKO’d Makwan Amirkhani six months later and if he rediscovers that form this weekend, he will catapult himself towards the top five rankings.
Edson Barboza (21-9) has performed at an elite level for a decade now and has inevitably ran into lightweight monsters including the likes of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Kevin Lee, Justin Gaethje and Paul Felder so his record has taken a beating. After that rematch and split decision with Felder which he arguably won, he decided to shred more meat off the bones and try his hand down at featherweight. He was welcomed to the division by Dan Ige, but he was robbed in a split decision. On a controversial three-fight skid, Barboza bounced back with a classy unanimous decision over Amirkhani.
PREDICTION
This is a mouth-watering match-up and the perfect way to kick off the main card and we can expect a violent battle on the feet. Barboza will bring his standard explosive self with the slickest and most dangerous kicking game in the division and Burgos will bring his incredibly tough, forward pressure and technical boxing.
It is going to create one hell of a scrap and they match up identically physically. Barboza has the power advantage but Burgos’ endurance and durability will keep him in the fight until the bell.
Barboza’s technique, speed and power should enable him to have more of an efficient output and land more damaging blows. If his weight cut goes smoothly, he may have the explosiveness to land the knockout, but Burgos’ is expected to eat whatever is served up but falling short in a decision.
Prediction: Barboza via Decision
MATT SCHNELL VS ROGERIO BONTORIN
Matt Schnell (15-5) was preparing for the former flyweight title challenger Alex Perez but is just grateful to stay on the main card of a pay-per-view. After losing his first two UFC fights, Schnell went on a tear winning four in a row with decisions over Marco Beltran and Naoki Inoue, following them up with two brilliant triangles on Louis Smolka up at bantamweight and then Jordan Espinosa. However, the streak was spectacularly snapped by Alexandre Pantoja with a first-round knockout. Schnell returned on Fight Island and scraped past Tyson Nam with a split decision, but he is back in the win column and that is all that matters.
Rogerio Bontorin (16-2(1)) was marching up the division after winning his first two UFC fights in 2019. He got the nod in a split decision over Magomed Bibulatov and then TKO’d Raulin Paiva but he is now fighting to prevent a three-fight skid. He got ragdolled by Ray Borg to a unanimous decision and then got his clock cleaned by Kai Kara-France a couple months ago.
PREDICTION
Schnell has all the momentum as well as a three-inch height and reach advantage and he will look to utilise it to the full with his hand speed. They are both superb on the mat but if anyone is going to look for the takedown, it will be Bontorin. If he does get Schnell to the floor, he will try and pounce on the back, but Schnell’s jiu-jitsu should be good enough to see him off.
Schnell will hope to get to work on the feet and use his speed to pop in and out of range piling up the strikes. If he gets the better of the striking exchanges it will likely force some takedown attempts from Bontorin. Anything can happen here, a knockout or decision either way and if there is a submission it will most likely fall to Bontorin. It is going to be a very fast-paced scrap and will be exciting wherever it goes.
If Schnell can get out of the first round unscathed, he has a great chance to finish stronger and pick up the win, but we are backing Bontorin and his firepower on the feet and on the ground. He is also the underdog, so is well worth a punt and we can see the fight finishing in a variety of ways.
Prediction: Bontorin via Decision
RONALDO SOUZA VS ANDRE MUNIZ
It seems father time has finally caught up with Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza (26-9(1)). We have seen him grow from a jiu-jitsu legend to an accomplished Mixed Martial Artist and Strikeforce champion and went on to consistently flirt with a UFC title shot but at the age of 41 he has lost five of his last seven and on a three-fight skid. His last two wins were spectacular knockouts after defeats – After getting knocked out by Robert Whittaker sparked by a head kick, he decided to do the same against Derek Brunson. He then lost a split decision to Kelvin Gastelum and then proceeded to knock out Chris Weidman. However, he is now coming off a unanimous decision loss to Jack Hermansson, a split decision to Jan Blachowicz and a knockout to Kevin Holland.
Fellow grappling phenom, Andre Muniz (20-4) is at the start of his UFC career and he heads to Houston hoping to snatch the torch from Jacare. He has only lost once in his last 15 fights and after a unanimous decision over Bruno Assis and submission over Taylor Johnson, he finally got the call from the UFC. He was paired with Antonio Arroyo who was also making his debut and on a five-fight win streak and managed a unanimous decision. He followed that up by notching the 13th submission of his career pulling off an armbar on Bartosz Fabinski.
PREDICTION
Pitting two jiu-jitsu wizards against each other usually means we will see a striking battle. We know how confident Jacare has become in his hands and Muniz is improving boasting a significant six-inch reach advantage.
That said, Jacare’s advantage on the feet should tell which could force Muniz into a takedown. From here, we should see a fascinating grappling contest.
Muniz but he has all of the momentum and hunger right now, but this is a huge step-up in competition despite Jacare’s form and nearing retirement. The red on his record does not look pretty but the losses are to exceptional competition including the light heavyweight champion Blachowicz who he took to a split decision.
Muniz has a bright future, but stylistically, this is a good match-up for Jacare who has some of the best jiu-jitsu in the sport, better wrestling, better stand-up and as all Muniz’s losses have come via knockout, we are leaning towards a fifth.
Prediction: Jacare Souza via KO/TKO
LANDO VANNATA VS MIKE GRUNDY
Lando Vannata (11-5-2) is back after his fourth ‘fight of the night’. Unfortunately for him, it was another loss. He lost his ‘fight of the night’s’ to Tony Ferguson and David Teymur. He then drew with Bobby Green and put on another show with the veteran but unfortunately lost a unanimous decision. He is 3-5-2 now in the UFC but he brings the excitement factor and he is certainly a talent as he earnt a unanimous decision over Yancy Medeiros before the Green rematch and who can forget that wheel kick on John Makdessi back in 2016.
We have not seen anywhere near enough of Mike Grundy (12-2). He has only fought twice since 2017 which was a unanimous decision win over Fernando Bruno under the Aspera banner. That earnt him a call-up to the UFC where he met and knocked out fellow Englishman Nad Narimani. Sitting on a nine-fight win streak, he appeared 16 months later in July last year and he finally met his grappling match losing a unanimous decision to Movsar Evloev who is a Russian monster in Greco-Roman wrestling.
PREDICTION
Vannata tries his hand down at featherweight but this is a terrible match-up for him. He sill gives up a slight reach advantage to Grundy who is an accomplished freestyle wrestler and we can expect him to shoot in early.
Grundy can strike, but Vannata has a clear advantage on the feet. He keeps his hands low, but his smoothness and flexibility will enable him to offload kicks and combinations at will.
However, he can only land on Grundy if he can keep the fight standing and Grundy’s wrestling is good enough to take Vannata down with ease. Grundy is a savage on the mat and we expect him to maintain top position and look for a submission in between ground-and-pound. Vannata is tricky off his back and has very good jiu-jitsu, but that should only be enough to avoid getting submitted.
Prediction: Grundy via Decision
ANDREA LEE VS ANTONINA SHEVCHENKO
It wasn’t that long ago Andrea Lee (11-5) was riding a seven-fight win streak after three impressive unanimous decisions in her first three UFC outings to stretch her record to 11-2. She had all the tools and a ton of promise but three fights later, she is fighting for her career. After cruising past Veronica Macedo, Ashlee Evans-Smith and Montana De La Rosa she fell short in two split decisions to Joanne Calderwood and Lauren Murphy and is now coming off a limp unanimous decision loss to Roxanne Modafferi.
Antonina Shevchenko (9-2) was also sitting pretty on an unblemished record after her UFC debut. She earnt a unanimous decision over Ji Yeon Kim in 2018 to go 7-0 but went on to lose a split decision to Modafferi. She responded in a great battle with Lucie Pudilova submitting her in the second round but fell again losing a unanimous decision to Katlyn Chookagian. However, she is now coming off her most impressive performance to date knocking out Ariane Lipski back in November.
PREDICTION
There is a clear path to victory here for Lee and that is to get her wrestling shoes on. They both have awful takedown defence, but Lee is a better wrestler and has the ability to control Shevchenko on the mat or fence for the majority of the fight.
Whether Lee adopts this game plan is a different question. They are both well-versed strikers hailing from a Muay Thai background. Shevchenko will hope Lee decides to back her striking and it will create an exciting and technical contest.
As Lee is staring at four losses in a row, you have to expect her to mix in grappling at least. If she can level-change in between combinations and utilise her judo to throw Shevchenko to the canvas, the fight is hers but she will have to be careful in the clinch where Shevchenko is very strong so Lee will be better off shooting for single leg and double leg takedowns.
We expect an even striking contest but as soon as Shevchenko starts to land, Lee will shoot in for the takedown and keep her on her back to wind down the clock and earn a much-needed decision.
Prediction: Lee via Decision
JORDAN WRIGHT VS JAMIE PICKETT
Jordan Wright (11-1(1)) finally got a taste of his own medicine back in November. He got caught stalling on the crossroads of Joaquin Buckley’s brief brief hype train getting knocked out in the second round. That was the first loss of his career going 12 fights unbeaten submitting five and knocking six including Ike Villanueva on his UFC debut.
Jamie Pickett (11-5) is also coming off a loss after eventually making his UFC debut. After bombing two auditions on the Contender Series against Charles Byrd and Punahele Soriano, he managed to knock out Jhonoven Pati on his third attempt in August last year. He went on to make his debut against Tafon Nchukwi four months later but lost a unanimous decision, so it remains to be seen whether he has what it takes to hang in the big time.
PREDICTION
These guys will not exactly be keeping Israel Adesanya up at night, but this should be an exciting stand-up battle between two dangerous strikers. They are the same height and Pickett will boast a three-inch reach advantage, but Wright’s dynamism and karate style should negate that advantage.
We could easily see a knockout here, mainly because of the amount of strikes they eat. Their defence is not the best and they have clear knockout power so whoever has the best head and foot movement should come out on top.
We can expect some clinch work when the distance closes with Pickett more likely to go for the takedown but one of them is going to have to be aggressive and search for the knockout to have any shelf-life in the UFC.
We are backing Wright with Pickett’s chin keeping him in the fight but neither of them have proved themselves against decent competition and it is a tough one to call.
Prediction: Wright via Decision
GINA MAZANY VS PRISCILA CACHOEIRA
After going 3-1, Gina Mazany (7-4) was cut from the UFC in 2019. She got submitted by Sara McMann, lost a unanimous decision to Lina Lansberg and got knocked out by Macy Chiasson broken up by a unanimous decision win over Wu Yanan. She was recalled after picking up a TKO for the King of the Cage promotion but was handed another beast in Julia Avila who ravaged Mazany taking 22 seconds to finish her. She returned for her third fight of 2020 in November with kinder match-up in Rachael Ostovich walking away with her fourth career TKO.
After losing her first three UFC fights, a lot of people wrote Priscila Cachoeira (9-3) off as a UFC calibre fighter. However, her debut was a short notice fight against the weapon Valentina Shevchenko who mauls every flyweight right now and then she lost unanimous decisions to Molly McCann and Luana Carolina who who are good fighters. She had all the pressure on her coming off those losses, but she displayed the skill that got her into the octagon by knocking out Shana Dobson. However, that was 15 months ago and it was only Dobson, so time will tell on whether she can last in the UFC.
PREDICTION
This fight should be a battle between Mazany’s grappling and Cachoeira’s striking. Mazany can hold her own on the feet but the Brazilian is very powerful and aggressive with little consideration for her ground game so the smart strategy will be to take her down.
Under the tutelage of James Krause, that is exactly what we expect Mazany to do to pick up the win. Cachoeira will be dangerous when they are standing but her aggressiveness may work against her by walking into a takedown. As long as Mazany does not get caught, we fully expect her to wrestle her way to a decision.
Prediction: Mazany via Decision
KEVIN AGUILAR VS TUCKER LUTZ
Kevin Aguilar (17-4) could be fighting for his UFC career as he balances on a three-fight skid. After scraping past Joey Gomez with a split decision on the Contender Series and then going on to win his first two UFC fights via unanimous decision against Rick Glenn and Enrique Barzola, Aguilar was sitting pretty on a nine-fight win streak and juicy 17-1 record. However, the former LFA featherweight champion lost a unanimous decision to Dan Ige, got knocked out by Zubaira Tukhugov and is coming off a split decision loss to Charles Rosa.
He now welcomes Tucker Lutz (11-1) to the UFC desperately needing a win. Lutz has also graduated from the Contender Series with two appearances and wins last year. He earnt a unanimous decision over Chase Gibson in September and repeated the feat two months later against Sherrard Blackledge to get the call-up.
PREDICTION
Aguillar has the experience but Lutz has all of the momentum having not lost since his pro debut in 2015. The majority of his fights came under the Shogun banner where he did not fight anyone of note or with a decent record, but he has the confidence.
Lutz is well-round with some decent wrestling in the locker, but he will have to mix in his strikes well to land a takedown as Aguilar has some good takedown defence. Aguilar will hope this fight stays on the feet as he is a solid striker, in particular his boxing.
They both tend to absorb a lot of strikes and this could come down to output on the feet. It will be a very close contest but if Lutz can test the weathered chin of Aguilar while mixing in some takedowns, he can clinch it.
Prediction: Lutz via Decision
Value Bet: Aguilar via Decision
CHRISTOS GIAGOS VS SEAN SORIANO
Christos Giagos (18-8) was getting ready for Joel Alvarez, but the Spaniard had troubles with his visa so unfortunately cannot make it to the octagon. Giagos is coming off a solid unanimous decision win over Carlton Minus after he filled in himself for Rick Glenn who had to pull out of the fight. That win came after a unanimous decision loss to Drakkar Klose which broke the momentum of beating Damir Hadzovic and Mizuto Hirota which were two more unanimous decisions.
Sean Soriano (14-6) steps up to replace Alvarez and makes his second stint in the UFC after getting cut back in 2015 going 0-3. He has not been very active fighting only six times since 2016 but he has only lost once in that time. That was a submission to Bruce Boyington for CES MMA and he bounced back with a knockout over Saul Almeida (CES MMA), a unanimous decision over Jose Mariscal (Cage Fury Fighting Championships) and he is now coming off a win two months ago knocking out Noah Lahat (UAE Warriors).
PREDICTION
Minus is not the best name on Giagos’ record, but it was a quality performance to breeze through him on short notice. His only UFC losses have come to Charles Oliveira who is fighting for the title on this card and Klose, so he has some pedigree.
However, if he does not pace himself better, this fight will slip away from him. If Soriano can weather the first round and Giagos begins to fade, he can start to out land and even throw in some takedowns.
If Giagos fights smart or blitzes the first round, he can easily pick up the win but after a high-paced first round, expect Soriano to come into his own and snatch the later rounds to seal a decision.