UFC Vegas 27 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 27? Sunday 23rd May, 2021 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 27? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 27? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 27 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 27? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ROB FONT VS CODY GARBRANDT
Rob Font (18-4) is coming off the biggest win of his career in knocking out former title challenger Marlon Moraes back in December. He survived the early submission attempts to rally back at the end of the first round to finish him via TKO. It was an incredible performance battling back from adversity and it marked a third impressive win in a row after unanimous decisions over Sergio Pettis and Ricky Simon.
Cody Garbrandt (12-3) has experienced quite the UFC career already and he still only 29 years old. He blitzed his way to the UFC title putting on one of the best bantamweight performances we have seen in the octagon by earning a unanimous decision over Dominick Cruz. However, he then got knocked out twice by TJ Dillashaw in their grudge title fights and then he got knocked out by Pedro Munhoz. It was a dark period for Garbrandt who was also battling injuries, but he pulled out a vintage performance in his last fight with a stunning walk-off knockout over Raphael Assuncao.
PREDICTION
This is going to be a one hell of a clash and technical tear up. They are both phenomenal strikers – Garbrandt is a boxer with ferocious speed and power and Font is technically sound with one of the best jabs in the division and importantly, he will boast a significant six-inch reach advantage.
If Font can get a read on Garbrandt, identify the range and learn when to counter, that jab could paint Garbrandt’s face a new colour. Font needs to be patient and if he can start to land, he will need to prepare himself for an angry Garbrandt who is as dangerous as it gets but will be open for more counters.
A patient Garbrandt is one of the most dangerous strikers in the division and we saw that to an extent in the Assuncao fight, but if he starts to eat a few Font jabs, it is hard to see him not biting down on the mouthpiece and throwing bombs leaving his chin exposed.
If Garbrandt does not get tempted into a brawl and throws more leg kicks and even calls upon his wrestling to mix his offence up, he can easily dictate the fight. He also has five-round experience which Font does not so this really depends on how Garbrandt approaches the fight.
That said, he needs a flawless performance to get past Font. He can not afford to make any mistakes and certainly not lose his head and start swinging for the fences. This could turn in to a war, picking up the pace and volume with each round and a knockout is likely.
Garbrandt has all of the tools to win and if he is smart, he will throw in takedowns and leg kicks to help set up a killer blow, but he been lured into a knockout three times. Font has never been knocked out and we can easily see him picking up a finish here. This can go either way, but we have a feeling Garbrandt is going to deliver an even better version of himself on the night.
Prediction: Garbrandt via KO/TKO
YAN XIAONAN VS CARLA ESPARZA
Yan Xiaonan (13-1(1)) has quietly risen up the strawweight ranks and another win will put her right into the title picture. She is unbeaten in her last 12 and has had six UFC fights winning all of them via unanimous decision. She has seen off Kailin Curran (2017), Viviane Pereira (2018), Syuri Kondo (2018), Angela Hill (2019), Karolina Kowalkiewicz (2020) and most impressively Claudia Gadelha in November last year.
Carla Esparza (17-6) has been lingering around the title picture since she became the first UFC strawweight champion back in 2014. She is 8-4 in the UFC and after dropping two on the bounce to Claudia Gadelha (split decision) and Tatiana Suarez (TKO) she has strung four wins together to get back in the frame. She scraped past Virna Jandiroba, Alexa Grasso, Michelle Waterson and Marina Rodriguez in decisions but was very lucky to win all of those.
PREDICTION
Esparza just has a knack of winning close fights. She is an average striker, but a quality wrestler and has managed to sway several judges into awarding her with 10 decision and there will be no surprise that she will try and win another decision with her wrestling here.
Xiaonan has a clear striking advantage and If the fight stays on the feet, she will piece Esparza up at will but very few women can defend Esparza’s takedowns. Worryingly for Xiaonan, she does not have the best takedown defence.
Grasso, Waterson and Rodriguez are all great strikers too and there is a case for all three winning a decision, but the judges clearly favour Esparza’s style of simply maintaining top control and it will be a matter of time before Esparza lands a takedown. We expect Xiaonan to put up a good fight and hurt Ezparza when she can but we can also see another controversial decision.
Prediction: Esparza via Decision
JUSTIN TAFA VS JARED VANDERAA
Justin Tafa (4-2) walks out for his fourth UFC fight and only seventh pro fight. He won the Australian Xtreme Fighting Championship by knocking out Jeremy Joiner on his second appearance highlighting just how deep the roster is over there. He defended the title with another knockout, this time over David Taumoepeau but then got a taste of his own medicine on his UFC debut when Yorgan de Castro landed one of the cleanest and devastating knockouts you will see. He bounced back with another TKO over Juan Adams but is now coming off a split decision to Carlos Felipe back in January.
Jared Vanderaa (11-5) is also coming off a loss on his UFC debut which was back in February. After knocking out Harry Hunsucker on the Contender Series, he got his UFC opportunity but tasted the difference in competition after Sergey Spivak put him away in the second round suffering the first knockout of his career.
PREDICTION
Vanderaa really is a mountain and will boast a six-inch reach and four-inch height advantage. That will not deter Tafa who will go about business as usual in breaking Vanderaa down with legs and hunting a knockout.
Vanderaa is also a powerful striker and can grapple which we can expect to see if Tafa starts to get the better of the striking exchanges. If Vanderaa can get Tafa on his back, the Australian will be in trouble but this is a decent match-up for Tafa.
He should be able to to offload his power strikes from his southpaw stance while being able to defend Vanderaa’s weapons. Tafa is also very young in his career improving with each fight and we expect him to bag his fifth win.
Prediction: Tafa via KO/TKO
FELICA SPENCER VS NORMA DUMONT
Felicia Spencer (8-2) returns after the second loss of her career, but even though she lost a unanimous decision, it was arguably one of her most impressive performances. That is because she was taking on the women’s ‘GOAT’ Amanda Nunes and took her five rounds. Spencer’s only two losses have been to the two greatest featherweights including Cris Cyborg who she also took to a decision. With wins in between those losses over Megan Anderson (submission) and Zarah Fairn Dos Santos (TKO), she has had a peculiarly ride so far in the UFC, but she is clearly a stud and looking for her third win in the UFC.
Norma Dumont (5-1) returns to the graveyard of the featherweight division. She took on Anderson on her UFC debut but got sparked in the first round. She dropped down to bantamweight nine months later and looked exceptional against Ashlee Evans-Smith, outclassing the veteran in a unanimous decision. However, 135 lbs is not an easy weight cut for Dumont so she is giving 145 lbs another crack but has a very tough match-up.
PREDICTION
The greatest mystery in the UFC is how the women’s featherweight division is still going with only four active fighters. If these two could cut down to bantamweight, they would be a force, especially Spencer.
She is a good striker and exceptional on the mat as a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. There is also no doubting her toughness after going a total of eight rounds with the two hardest hitting women in MMA history.
So, Dumont has her hands full. She is a good fighter and is still improving. If she can be aggressive and adopt a familiar game plan of stringing her heavy leg kicks together to disable Spencer, she has a chance.
However, she will have to be careful of Spencer catching the kicks and taking her down. The stand-up battle and clinch will be very interesting with Dumont’s power, but once the fight goes to the mat, the tide will swing with Spencer.
In all, Spencer should have the advantage everywhere, especially on the ground. Dumont really needs a finish to pick up the win but if Cyborg and Nunes can not put Spencer away, we do not give Dumont much chance.
Prediction: Spencer via Submission
RICARDO RAMOS VS BILL ALGEO
Ricardo Ramos (14-3) is hoping to bounce back from the second knockout of his career. Ramos met fellow hot prospect Lerone Murphy on Fight Island last year and got caught in an action-packed round. His first knockout loss came on his fourth UFC fight when Said Nurmagomedov folded him with a spinning back kick to the liver. However, the Brazilian has looked exceptional outside those knockouts with five UFC wins including that hellacious spinning back elbow knockout on Aiemann Zahabi and submission on Luiz Eduardo Garagorri.
After a dominant loss to Brendan Loughnane on the Contender Series, it seemed Bill Algeo (14-5) lost his opportunity. However, he bounced back with a unanimous decision win over Tim Dooling for the Cage Fury Fighting Championships and stepped-up replacing Ryan Hall to fight Ricardo Lamas. He was eventually outclassed by the veteran in a decision, but he has been given a contract and kicked off with a unanimous decision over Spike Carlyle back in November.
PREDICTION
These two eventually meet after their UFC Vegas 24 date fell through a month ago. This fight will start on the feet where both fighters will look to be aggressive. They both throw a variety of strikes, Ramos in particular with his kicks and spinning attacks. His low kicks will be a particular threat so Algeo needs to prepare to check them.
Algeo has a slight height and reach advantage but Ramos’ dynamism and speed should see him edge the exchanges. We also expect some grappling here, they are both black belts in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but a submission is unlikely and instead we should see a lot of scrambles and clinch work.
This will be a close fight, but we are backing Ramos. He has fought better competition and is incredibly well-experienced for his age. He is only 25 and getting better so we expect him to have improved with his leg kicks and clinch work swaying the judges.
Prediction: Ramos via Decision
JACK HERMANSSON VS EDMEN SHAHBAZYAN
Jack Hermansson (21-6) hopes to get back on the title trial after a couple setbacks. He strung a very impressive four-fight streak together collecting the names of Thales Leites (TKO), Gerald Meerschaert (submission), David Branch (submission) and Jacare Souza (unanimous decision) but then got knocked out by Jared Cannonier back in 2019 on home soil. He bounced back with arguably the best win of his career, heel hooking Kelvin Gastelum but his second setback came in December getting outclassed in a unanimous decision to Marvin Vettori.
Edmen Shahbayzan (11-1) is also coming off a setback – a huge one in fact. He stormed to 11-0 winning his first four UFC fights. He scraped past Darren Stewart in a split decision and then knocked out Charles Byrd and submitted Jack Marshman which are not the most impressive of wins, but he went on to knock out Brad Tavares with a head kick to surge into prospect status. However, the then got paired with Derek Brunson as the heavy favourite but got dominated by Brunson’s wrestling before getting ground-and-pounded to a TKO.
PREDICTION
This fight should be the co-main, especially considering some of the pairings on the main card. Both guys are extremely exciting fighters and well-rounded finishers.
To get schooled by Brunson and then get handed Hermansson is odd matchmaking as Hermansson is a proven top tier grappler and the Swede has a lot to lose here. Either way, this should be a great fight with a mixture of striking and grappling.
Hermansson is the favourite. He is not quite as good a wrestler as Brunson but he has extremely dangerous jiu-jitsu. Shahbayzan is a good grappler himself, but he needs to force a pace on the feet. We have seen Hermansson get hurt early and Shahbayzan needs to burst out the gate.
Hermansson will only get stronger as the fight goes on as he has better cardio and if he assumes top control, he can save enough energy to pull off a submission on a tired Shahbayzan and even cinch up a his trademarked ‘Jokertine’.
Prediction: Hermansson via Submission
Value Bet: Shahbayzan via KO/TKO
BEN ROTHWELL VS CHRIS BARNETT
‘Big’ Ben Rothwell’s (38-13) brief resurgence was snapped by Marcin Tybura in his last fight. Rothwell went on a miserable three-fight skid getting outpointed by Junior dos Santos (2016), Blagoy Ivanov (2019) and Andrei Arlovski (2019) compounded by a ban in between for a failed drugs test. However, he bagged his first win in nearly four years coming back to knock out Stefan Struve and followed it up with a split decision over Ovince Saint Preux. However, Tybura filled that loss column back up with a unanimous decision back in October.
Chris ‘Huggy Bear’ Barnett (21-6) steps up as a late replacement after a series of dropouts. Rothwell was scheduled to fight Philipe Lins at UFC Vegas 21 but as he got injured, they were rescheduled for UFC Vegas 26 but Lins fell ill the day before the fight. Lins then had to drop out again for this event handing Askar Mozharov a chance for a debut but as he could not get a visa in time, Barnett fills in and is riding a six-fight win streak including four knockouts in a variety of promotions.
PREDICTION
On paper, this should be a complete mismatch given Rothwell’s experience and significant height and reach advantage. Barnett’s only chance seems to be landing a huge bomb. He is deceptively quick with blistering power, but Rothwell has not been knocked out since 2014 even though he has scrapped with the likes of Matt Mitrione, Junior dos Santos and Andrei Arlovski.
Rothwell is a shadow of his former pre-ban self, but we are firmly backing him here. If he does not land a knockout, you can expect him to completely dominate the clinch with his size and power and as the fight goes on, more opportunities will open up for a submission.
Prediction: Rothwell via Submission
CLAUDIO SILVA VS COURT MCGEE
Claudio Silva (14-2) finally got his 14-fight win streak snapped back in October. The jiu-jitsu ace’s career has been littered by injuries, but he was still racking up win after win. After decisions over Brad Scott and Leon Edwards on his first two UFC fights, he took four years out but it was like he never left returning to submit Nordine Taleb, Danny Roberts and Cole Williams before getting paired with James Krause on Fight Island in October. He ended up losing a unanimous decision, but at least he is back and hopefully he gets in more than one fight in this year.
The best days are firmly behind Court McGee (19-10) with just one win in his last six which were all decisions, so he is lucky to still have a job in the UFC. He lost two unanimous decisions to Ben Saunders and Sean Strickland before picking up that win and unanimous decision over Alex Garcia. He is now on a three-fight skid losing a split decision to Dhiego Lima and two more unanimous decisions to Sean Brady and Carlos Condit.
PREDICTION
Silva has the impressive record, but we do not know how many good years he has left in him at 38 years old. That said, he does not have many miles on the clock and needs little effort to get the job done on the mat.
Silva will be confident everywhere but his easiest route to victory will be dragging McGee to the floor despite the fact McGee has never been submitted. In fact, he has only been finished once in his 10 losses, so he is very durable.
McGee’s best chance of winning is to keep the fight or try to defend the submission attempts for the first two rounds and wait for Silva’s gas to tank to empty and then pile on the output in the third round to seal a decision.
However, McGee has not shown enough to get past somebody of Silva’s calibre for nearly 10 years. His lack of takedown defence is also a worry and we expect Silva to bag another submission and most likely a rear-naked choke.
Prediction: Silva via Submission
BRUNO GUSTAVO DA SILVA VS VICTOR RODRIGUEZ
After going without a win in his first three UFC fights, Bruno Gustavo da Silva (11-5-2(1)) finally got his dub and what a performance it was. After softening JP Buys up with an early low blow and eye poke, he TKO’d him in the second round. That win came after a ‘no contest’ with Khalid Taha and two unanimous decision losses to two flyweight beasts in David Dvorak and Tagir Ulanbekov.
Victor Rodriguez (7-3) heads to the APEX for the second time after a miserable debut. He racked up four knockouts in a row on the local scene prior and took the fight on short notice, but he was rewarded by getting handed an emerging bantamweight prospect Adrian Yanez. Yanez made easy work of Rodriguez finishing him off with a head kick in the first round.
PREDICTION
Da Silva is a very good fighter, but this is a much kinder match-up for Rodriguez, fighting in his usual weight class at 125 lbs. He is an exciting fighter and will try and bring the pace mixing in strikes with clinch work.
Based on what we have seen, da Silva should be the clear favourite. Rodriguez has looked good on the regional scene but that means nothing in the UFC. Da Silva should be able to hurt Rodriguez with his straight right and calf kicks and also has grappling to call upon to get Rodriguez on his back to pour on the ground-and-pound,
Prediction: Da Silva via KO/TKO
JOSH CULIBAO VS YILAN SHA
Josh Culibao (8-1-1) arrived to the UFC unbeaten but he is without a win in his first two UFC fights. He met Jalin Turner on his debut, but he ended up getting knocked out in the second round. He then met Charles Jourdain in a great fantastic back-and-forth battle but ultimately fought to a draw.
He welcomes Yilan Sha (17-6) to the UFC. He strung some decent wins together in the Wu Lin Feng promotion in his native China. However, when Zhu Rong who also now fights in the UFC knocked him out in the first round back in September, he had a couple fights for Jue Cheng King also in China. He earnt a unanimous decision over Nuerdebieke Bahetihan and then submitted Tanzhao Wang.
PREDICTION
Sha was very active last year fighting six times with that knockout to Rong being his only hiccup. Culibao only fought twice without a win but that UFC experience will serve him well and we should see an exciting fight here.
We expect this to be a very close contest with the majority of it taking place on the feet. If Sha adopts a game plan of taking Culibao down he can easily wind down the clock, but we have not seen enough of him to know if he can.
We are giving Culibao the nod looking better on the feet and utilising his height and reach advantage to earn a decision, but this is a tough one to call.
Prediction: Culibao via Decision
DAVID DVORAK VS RAULIN PAIVA
David Dvorak (19-3) continues his monster run with eyes on a flyweight title shot in the near future. He is on a 15-fight win streak with a few decent wins, but it is his first two UFC fights that have got people talking. He earnt a unanimous decision over Bruno Gustavo da Silva on his debut in March last year and followed it up with another unanimous decision six months later over Jordan Espinosa.
Raulin Paiva (20-3) also enjoyed a healthy win streak of 12 but at bantamweight including a split decision over Allan Nascimento down at 125 lbs on the Contender Series before getting the call-up to the UFC. He continued his new quest at flyweight by taking on Kai Kara-France on his debut but lost a split decision and lost again to Rogerio Bontorin getting knocked out in the first round to raise serious question marks about his hopes in the division. However, he is now back on track with a knockout over Mark De La Rosa and a unanimous decision over Zhalgas Zhumagulov.
PREDICTION
If Paiva’s weight cut goes smoothly, he has a great chance of snapping Dvorak’s streak. He is very aggressive, powerful and will boast a height and slight reach advantage.
This should be a very fast-paced battle on the feet. Paiva has the power but Dvorak has the speed and mixes his strikes brilliantly especially when he sets up the leg kicks.
Both fighters are capable of a knockout, but we expect three rounds of damage with Dvorak’s speed, output and leg kicks making the difference. Paiva is very durable which will keep him in the fight until the bell, but we are backing Dvorak to earn a decision.
Prediction: Dvorak via Decision
DAMIR HADZOVIC VS YANCY MEDEIROS
It is fair to say Damir Hadzovic (13-6) has not quite lived up to his potential. He is 3-4 in the UFC with his consistency letting him down. He bounced back from getting clapped on his UFC debut by Mairbek Taisumov by welcoming Marcin Held’s takedown with a colossal knee. He then went on to lose to Alan Patrick, pick up two wins over Nick Hein and Marco Polo Reyes but he has lost his last two fights with a unanimous decision to Christos Giagos and is now coming off a submission to Renato Moicano.
The last three years have been miserable for Yancy Medeiros (17-7 (1)). He only fought three times and got knocked out by Donald Cerrone and Gregor Gillespie before losing a unanimous decision to Lando Vannata in February last year. This skid came after three very impressive finishes over Sean Spencer (submission), Erick Silva (TKO) and Alex Oliveira (TKO) and now the veteran hopes to prove those days are not behind him.
PREDICTION
Both fighters are at a crossroads and desperately need a win. They have also not been very active and considering the pressure of the loser potentially getting cut, we could see a very cagey fight.
This is not usually Medeiros’ style as a very slick and dangerous striker. He will also boast a five-and-a-half-inch reach advantage and he is expected to utilise by keeping Hadzovic and the end of his range.
The Bosnian will be very confident in this match-up especially as Medeiros is not expected to expose his takedown defence and keep this a striking battle. Even though the Hawaiian is coming off three losses, they were to exceptional competition and if this remains on the feet, we expect Medeiros to outland Hadzovic.
We expect this to be a close fight and we can see a knockout falling either way but a Medeiros decision is your best bet especially as the underdog.
Prediction: Medeiros via Decision
Value Bet: Medeiros via Decision
RAFAEL ALVES VS DAMIR ISMAGULOV
After having a couple fights fall through, Rafael Alves (19-9) finally makes his UFC debut. He had two false starts at UFC Vegas 19 with Mike Trizano getting injured and then missing weight badly before fighting his replacement Pat Sabatini. This fight was also rescheduled and pushed forward a week so let’s hope this is not cursed. Alves captured the Titan FC interim lightweight champion during his five-fight win streak which included his last bout on the Contender Series back in August where he submitted Alejandro Flores.
Finally, Damir Ismagulov (19-1) is back. He has shown all of the promise of a future title contender, but we have not seen him since August 2019. It was his third UFC fight and third unanimous decision in a row after breezing through Alex Gorgees, Joel Alvarez and Thiago Moises. Those impressive wins capped off a 14-fight win streak and this is not a padded streak as he won the M-1 lightweight title and defended it twice before getting the call-up.
PREDICTION
We have all been waiting a while for these guys to strap their UFC gloves on and it is likely to live up to expectation. Alves is very aggressive and can finish in a variety of ways illustrated by his seven knockouts and submissions.
Expect Alves to throw some flashy strikes, but he will need to be tactical as Ismagulov is a well-polished machine. He is a technically sound and powerful striker complimented by his wrestling.
If Alves, throws a lot of wild shots, Ismagulov will clinically counter, but he needs to keep his hands up more to avoid getting clipped. As long as the Russian can avoid Alves’ knockout power and does not leave his head in a guillotine, we expect him to put on a patient and well-rounded schooling. We completely understand why Ismagulov is the huge favourite but considering the odds and the Brazilian’s firepower, he is worth a small punt.