UFC 261 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC 261? Sunday 25th April, 2021 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 261? VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, Florida (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 261? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 261
What channel is UFC 261 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 261? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
KAMARU USMAN VS JORGE MASVIDAL
Fair play to Kamaru Usman (18-1) for accepting this rematch. He dominated Jorge Masvidal back in July, so he does not have much to gain in beating him again and it comes with great risk. Usman was originally scheduled to fight Gilbert Burns back then but he pulled out late with COVID-19. However, after beating Masvidal, him and Burns eventually met a couple months ago and it was one of Usman’s greatest accomplishments. Burns is a jiu-jitsu champion and regarded as a better striker whereas Usman is regarded as a boring wrestler. Burns did clip him early, but Usman rallied back and puled off a knockout of his own in the third round.
Jorge Masvidal (35-14) gets his rematch and it is fair enough as he stepped up to replace Burns with less than a weeks’ notice. He is always in good shape, but all his efforts went into starving himself to make weight and so the UFC have rewarded him with another opportunity and full training camp.
PREDICTION
In the first fight, Usman predictably grappled Masvidal for five rounds to secure a decision. He landed five out of 16 takedowns with nearly 17 minutes of control time. Masvidal managed to land 66 significant strikes but he was too depleted to have any answers for Usman’s relentless wrestling.
So, with more time to prepare, will Masvidal be able to defend the takedown? The answer is no but the more pertinent question is with a better weight cut, will he have enough energy to create enough space in the first couple rounds to find the killer blow?
Maybe not, but he will definitely be better prepared and will have more chance this time around and if anybody is going to take a risk in trying to finish a fight, it’s Masvidal. That said, Usman also has more time to prepare specifically for Masvidal and he knows what it feels like to clinch and wrestle with him. He also has more time to prepare for Masvidal’s combinations and potential onslaughts.
That said and considering the odds, Masvidal has more chance of landing a knockout in the rematch, so he is worth a punt, but we expect Usman to complete the same mission. It will no doubt be harder for him, but he has the ability to drain Masvidal again.
Prediction: Usman via Decision
Value Bet: Masvidal via KO/TKO
WEILI ZHANG VS ROSE NAMAJUNAS
Weili Zhang (21-1) is finally back to defend her strawweight strap after that epic war with Joanna Jedrzejczyk. It was over a year ago now but considering the punishment they both absorbed, the 13-months lay-off may be a blessing in disguise. It was a very close fight that could have gone either way, but she has won 21 fights in a row now and obliterated Jessica Andrade to win the title. She is the biggest combat star in China right and her talent warrants it but it means there is a lot of weight on her shoulders.
A measly record in comparison, Rose Namajunas (9-4) is the next worthy challenger after earning a split decision over Jessica Andrade back in July. It was sweet vengeance as Andrade snatched the title a year prior with a murderous slam knockout. She was winning the fight but one mistake in holding on to a kimura made her pay in devastating fashion. But now she has the hunger back for the title and she will be grateful she can prepare for a different opponent after consecutive rematches with Jedrzejczyk and Andrade.
PREDICTION
The second title fight on the UFC 261 is destined to be a banger. They are two of the most skilled and well-rounded fighters in the division. They are tremendous grapplers, but we expect the majority of this fight to play out on the feet. Any grappling will likely be a result of a scramble with Namajunas looking to pounce on Zhang’s back.
Wherever this goes, the exchanges are going to extremely technical. Expect Zhang to be aggressive throwing leg kicks with Namajunas armed and ready to counter with her three-inch arm and three and a half-inch leg reach advantage.
Zhang has the power and may utilise it in the clinch, but she will want to do most her work with powerful combinations. She will have to be careful though as Namajunas has terrific movement which can enable her to leap in the pocket and throw hard straight punches down the pipe.
Both women can finish but this has the makings of a tactical five-round battle and whoever can master the range the best should come out on top. Zhang is the favourite and we give her the nod but Namajunas represents the value as the underdog.
Prediction: Zhang via Decision
Value Bet: Namajunas via Decision
VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO VS JESSICA ANDRADE
The flyweight queen Valentina Shevchenko (20-3) returns for the fifth defence of her crown. The division is rather hollow but there is no doubting that Shevchenko is one of the best and most skilled female fighters of all time. The only woman ahead of her is Amanda Nunes who she fought twice up a weight class taking her to two decisions with a lot of fans believing she did enough to earn the split decision in the second fight. Since that loss, she has gone on a tear, outclassing Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the title and then swatting away Jessica Eye, Liz Carmouche, Katlyn Chookagian and Jennifer Maia in her last fight although she had to go through some adversity against Maia who managed to win a round.
Arguably the most formidable contender to Shevchenko, Jessica Andrade (21-8) who stepped up from strawweight back in October to fight Chookagian and punctured her with a beautiful liver punch, eventually putting her away in the first round to seal a title shot. She is one of the most experienced women on the roster now with title fight experience. She is the former strawweight champion and started her career up at 135 lbs and the stage is now set for an epic showdown.
PREDICTION
What makes this Shevchenko’s toughest test in the division is the fact we finally saw a hole in Shevchenko’s game which was her takedown defence. A very slight hole as Maia only got take down once but the huge underdog had almost eight minutes of control time and Andrade is a great grappler with brute strength.
Andrade is also a heavy underdog but if she can employ a game plan of wrestling for five rounds and hurt Shevchenko with ground-and-pound, she could earn a decision here.
However, fight IQ has never been her strong suit and the warrior in her will want to trade to with the champion. She showed good improvement with her head movement in the Rose Namajunas rematch, but Shevchenko is levels above on the feet.
Shevchenko has a four-inch height and reach advantage and the technique to violently punish Andrade. If the Brazilian wrestles and clinches for five rounds she has a slight chance and it is worth a punt as the heavy underdog but if she decides to trade, Shevchenko will expose her defence.
Prediction: Shevchenko via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Andrade via Decision
URIAH HALL VS CHRIS WEIDMAN
Uriah Hall (16-9) is finally getting a run going with a three-fight win streak. He has fought a plethora of middleweight monsters, but he has been inconsistent with his performances. He lost four in five, losing a unanimous decision to Robert Whittaker and getting TKO’d by Derek Brunson, Gegard Mousasi and Paulo Costa but it looks like he has turned a leaf now. He responded to the Costa pounding by erasing Bevon Lewis with a counter right hand, earnt a split decision over Antonio Carlos Junior and is coming off a brilliant TKO win over the legend Anderson Silva.
Another man who has struggled to stay afloat in the sea of monsters is Chris Weidman (15-5). After taking the title from Anderson Silva and defending it against two other legends Lyoto Machida and Vitor Belfort, he has gone 2-5. It is not just the losses that have been crushing, it is the fact they were all emphatic knockouts. Luke Rockhold, Yoel Romero, Mousasi, Jacare Souza and Dominick Reyes have all stolen some of Weidman’s brain cells, but he did earn a dominant decision over Kelvin Gastelum after the Mousasi fight and is coming off a hard-fought unanimous decision over Omari Akhmedov.
PREDICTION
If you look down at Weidman’s record, he has not beaten an out an out striker since Belfort in 2015. Gastelum is a great boxer but he was completely undersized and got man-handled by Weidman. Akhmedov is also decent but that was more of a grappling contest.
Unfortunately for Weidman, he is up against another top tier striker and his chin will be sweating. If he can take Hall down and keep him there he can win but that is easier said than done and Hall has all of the momentum. He has the speed, technique and power to land on the damaged chin of Weidman before he enforces his wrestling, and we expect another painful night for the former champion.
Prediction: Hall via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Weidman via Submission
ANTHONY SMITH VS JIMMY CRUTE
After losing three in four, Anthony Smith (34-16) is back on the winning trail after a ‘performance of the night’ and submission over Devin Clark. He was struggling for form leading into that fight back in November, but it was understandable as the losses were to Jon Jones for the title, Glover Teixeira and Aleksandar Rakic. Smith is not championship calibre, but he is still top tier and anyone with title aspirations will have to get through him.
That somebody is Jimmy Crute (12-1) who is only 25 but has all the makings of a future contender. His only setback so far was to Misha Cirkunov who wrapped him up in a glorious Peruvian Necktie. That loss seemed to light a fire under him as he blitzed past his next two opponents. He bounced back by submitting Michal Oleksiejczuk with a kimura and then sparked out Modestas Bukauskas back in October.
PREDICTION
What a fight to kick off the main card. This is by far Crute’s biggest test, but an impressive win could catapult him into the top five. Crute has not gone past the first round since submitting Paul Craig in the third round back in 2018 and his cardio will have to be on point as Smith is a durable and seasoned five-rounder.
The fight will start on the feet where Smith will back himself and he will boast a two-inch height and reach advantage but as we saw in his last fight, Crute has fight-ending power in his hands.
Crute’s best route to victory may be resorting to his grappling. He is not quite on Teixeira’s level but if he can have half the success, he should be able to control Smith for long enough to earn a decision.
Smith is very dangerous on the ground and a jiu-jitsu contest will be a spectacle as they are both monsters on the mat. Overall, there is not much between them besides experience. Crute has gone five rounds twice but not at this level whereas Smith has gone five rounds with the likes of Jones.
Crute will need to bring out one of his best performances to date and we are backing him to earn a decision and if his conditioning is there, a late finish is possible.
Prediction: Crute via Decision
ALEX OLIVEIRA VS RANDY BROWN
The crafty veteran Alex Oliveira (22-9-1(2)) returns for his 20th UFC fight and is now 11-7(1) after losing his last outing. He was supposed to fight Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, but he pulled out giving Shavkat Rakhmonov the opportunity for his debut. As far as late replacement debutants go, the Kazakhstani is as tough as they come – unbeaten in 12 and proved he is more than worthy of a spot on the roster getting through the Brazilian with ease and submitting him in the first round. A perfect debut.
Randy Brown (12-4) is also coming off a loss. He took on top contender Vicente Luque and suffered the fate of many getting knocked out. He is now 6-4 in the UFC and has decent wins over the likes of Bryan Barberena and Warlley Alves but needs to be more consistent to make a dent in the welterweight division and Oliveira is the perfect opportunity for that.
PREDICTION
It is great to see this fight back on after Brown pulled out of their UFC Fight Night 186 date as it is destined to be a barnburner. Both guys struggle for consistency and are both capable of an impressive finish but only if they turn up.
Brown is the rangier fighter which will help as Oliveira likes to strike from a distance with front and leg kicks. The striking exchanges will be interesting but they both also like to mix in takedowns so we can expect a bit of everything here and it will be a very even contest.
A variety of results are possible and a strategy of leg kicks with the odd takedown is likely for both men. A Brown decision is most likely, but this is one to stay clear of if you are betting.
Prediction: Brown via Decision
DWIGHT GRANT VS STEFAN SEKULIC
Dwight Grant (10-3) is coming off that wild exchange with Daniel Rodriguez in August. He clipped Rodriguez early and it looked like he had finished the job, but Rodriguez rallied and threw back hurting Grant and eventually finished him. It was the first knockout loss of Grant’s career and his second loss in the UFC after Zak Ottow claimed a split decision on his debut. Grant responded with a TKO over Carlo Pedersoli and a split decision of his own over Alan Jouban and now he is desperate to get back in that win column.
Stefan Sekulic (12-3) is also coming off a loss losing a unanimous decision on his debut to Ramazan Emeev and that was back in September 2018. He fought his whole career for the Serbian Battle Championship promotion going 12-2 but the UFC is a big step-up in competition as he experienced against Emeev and he is going to have to dust off the cobwebs and bring an improved version of himself here.
PREDICTION
Sekulic is a solid fighter. He is a strong grappler and a diverse striker, but he needs to keep this fight on the ground against Grant. Grant is the better striker and he cannot afford to trade with him especially after not fighting for so long.
If Sekulic can secure a takedown, he can take the fight away from Grant with his heavy ground-and-pound. However, Grant has good takedown defence and the longer the fight stays on the feet the more you have to back him.
He may get taken down but expect Grant’s hands to be the difference. Sekulic is the heavy underdog and the value is on him grinding out a decision with his grappling but we are leaning towards a Grant knockout.
Prediction: Grant via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Sekulic via Decision
KARL ROBERSON VS BRENDAN ALLEN
Karl Roberson (9-3) has had a miserable year. It started with his heated clash with Marvin Vettori last June. Makhmud pulled out of their original bout, Roberson then missed weight badly and had to pull out last minute as it turns out he was suffering from rhabdomyolysis. The fight with Vettori was rescheduled and he missed weight again. The fight when ahead and he got steamrolled losing via submission in the first round. He was then scheduled to fight Dalcha Lungiambula in December, but he had to pull out that and their rescheduled fight due to COVID-19 symptoms. So, now it will be a win if he just makes it to the octagon on weight this weekend.
Brendan Allen (15-4) has not had the same trouble making the walk fighting three times last year. He was going into 2020 off the back of a submission win over Kevin Holland and continued that momentum by finishing Tom Breese via TKO in the first round and then earning a unanimous decision over Kyle Daukaus to hand him the first loss of his career. However, Allen got his seven-fight win streak snapped in November by Sean Strickland with a TKO in the second round.
PREDICTION
Allen is understandably the favourite but if Roberson is fully healthy, he has a great chance of not only winning but getting the knockout. He has ferocious power and nearly knocked out Glover Teixeira in their fight, but the glaring stats are Roberson’s three losses which have all come via submission.
Albeit they were to grappling animals, Cezar Ferreira, Glover Teixeira and Marvin Vettori, Allen is not far off off their level and will feel a submission will be there if he can take Roberson down and so do we.
If Roberson is healthy, this is going to be a compelling scrap but if he is not 100%, Allen will take him down and notch the ninth submission of his career.
Prediction: Allen via Submission
Value Bet: Roberson via KO/TKO
PAT SABATINI VS TRISTAN CONNELLY
Pat Sabatini (13-3) finally gets to make his UFC debut. He stepped up on short notice to replace Mike Trizano who was scheduled to fight Rafael Alves at UFC Vegas 19. However, that fight fell through due to Alves missing weight by a mere 12.5 lbs – a UFC record. Anyway, Sabatini has a new dance partner and cannot wait to get in the octagon. He is 5-1 in his last six and coming off a knockout over Jordan Titoni and a submission over Jesse Stirn for the Cage Fury Fighting Championships.
Tristan Connelly (14-6) is that partner and we have not seen him since 2019 but it was a memorable showing. He stepped up on short notice to take on Michel Pereira who’s hype train was in full force at the time. He stepped up a weight class where Pereira is a huge welterweight as it is and pulled off the upset. He weathered the early storm, waited for him to gas out and then cruised the last couple rounds. He has been out since recovering from neck surgery due to an injury he sustained in a car accident in 2018 but thankfully, he is healthy and raring to go.
PREDICTION
Connelly now drops to featherweight highlighting that size discrepancy against Pereira and he will have a two-inch height advantage, but he will still be giving up two inches in reach to Sabatini.
The debutant in the favourite considering Connelly’s lay-off but this should be closer than the odds suggest. Connelly will be a threat on the feet and Sabatini will be happy to trade but expect him to shoot in for a takedown within the first round.
Sabatini is a top wrestler and a savage on the mat. Connelly got taken down twice by the fatigued Pereira and although the Brazilian is a lot more powerful, we expect Sabatini to have similar success and earn a decision with his grappling or even a late submission with a flawless performance.
Prediction: Sabatini via Submission
Value Bet: Connelly via Decision
DANAA BATGEREL VS KEVIN NATIVIDAD
Danaa Batgerel (8-2) bounced back in the perfect way after his UFC debut loss back in 2019. He won three on the bounce with two knockouts over Aldar Budanaev and Sukhbold Sodnomdorj and submitted Haitao Ti before getting the call-up. He was paired up with Heili Alateng and lost a unanimous decision but he then got a kinder match-up in the smaller Guido Cannetti and proceeded to starch him in the first round.
Kevin Natividad (9-2) is now hoping to emulate Batgerel and bounce back emphatically from a debut loss. He was riding an impressive five-fight win streak including three knockouts but got a taste of his own medicine on his debut back in October. Miles Johns welcomed him to the UFC, but it was not a friendly one, dishing out a beautiful uppercut in the third round.
PREDICTION
They are both front-foot strikers which will create an exciting scrap. They are almost identical physically and we expect both of them to be aggressive and hunt a knockout.
Natividad needs to approach this differently. He cannot afford to run into Batgerel. He needs to be patient with counter striking and may even be better off calling upon his wrestling.
Batgeral has quality technique and the composure to hurt Natividad without slipping into a brawl. Natividad has also been knocked out badly twice now which is a worry at this weight class. Expect Batgerel to win the exchanges and once he gets a read on Natividad, he should find that killer blow.
Prediction: Batgerel via KO/TKO
RODRIGO VARGAS VS ZHU RONG
Rodrigo Vargas (11-4) needs to be way more active as he has only fought once a year since 2017 suffering mixed fortunes. He folded Mike de la Torre with a head kick in 2018 for Combate Americas but then lost his UFC debut a year later to Alex da Silva who earned a unanimous decision. He then took on Brok Weaver last year and was cruising but landed an illegal knee to get disqualified.
Zhu Rong (16-3) now makes his debut and has built up a lot of steam. One of the Chinese graduates from the Wu Lin Feng (WLF), making their UFC debut on the card, Rong is one of the most promising talents coming out of China right now. He is only 21 and on a phenomenal 10-fight win streak including six knockouts and three submissions. His last 14 fights have all been for WLF and he has only lost once getting caught in Guilherme Cadena’s triangle back in 2018. He has fought three times a year since and last fought in January knocking out Deliya Bi.
PREDICTION
This could be fireworks. Vargas is a ferocious southpaw and we can expect him to open up with his lead right hand and create openings to land his left high and calf kick.
Rong will also look to wreak havoc on the feet and he does not need to connect very often possessing some serious knockout power. The striking battle will be gripping but if Rong starts to land, expect Vargas to shoot in for a takedown.
Rong has good takedown defence and will attack with submissions if he does get taken down but he needs to keep this on the feet.
This could go either way but Rong’s activity swings this in his favour and he is still improving rapidly at his age. If he can avoid the calf kicks to his lead right leg from Vargas and defend the majority of the takedowns, we back him to get the job done. A knockout is likely considering his power, but Vargas has a good chin and will be in the fight for three rounds.
Prediction: Rong via Decision
Value Bet: Vargas via Submission
AORI QILENG VS JEFF MOLINA
Another Chinese prospect on the card who has made a name for himself at the Wu Lin Feng promotion, Aori Qileng (18-6) makes his UFC debut. He is coming hot riding a six-fight win streak and has only lost once in his last 11. He fought three times in 2019 submitting E Yong, knocking out Giorgi Borashvili and earning a unanimous decision over Amirlan Amirov. He only fought once last year but it was a brilliant second round knockout over Khizri Abdulaev.
Jeff Molina (8-2) also makes his UFC debut and has won seven fights on the bounce. He has fought for a variety of promotions collecting three knockouts and four submissions. He is coming off his first decision, but it gave him this opportunity taking on Jacob Silva on the Contender Series back in August getting the nod from all three judges in a very close fight.
PREDICTION
They match up very similarly physically and this should be a very competitive scrap. We expect the majority if it to remain of the feet where they will both be aggressive backing their power for a knockout.
They also both have a tendency to eat shots when the fight gets scrappy so we could easily see a knockout here. If Molina starts to land on Qileng, expect him to look for the takedown where he will unleash ground-and-pound until a submission opens up.
This is a very tough fight to call and could go either way but we give Qileng the slight edge with better experience and grappling in the locker.
Prediction: Qileng via Decision
LIANG NA VS ARIANE CARNELOSSI
The newest member of the crop of promising Chinese fighters is Liang Na (13-4) who makes her UFC debut. She is only 24 but has amassed some great experience already. She lost her third and fourth fight back in 2018 – getting TKO’d by Mariya Agapova and submitted by Qihui Yan, but now she is riding a four-fight win streak for the local Wu Lin Feng promotion. After Ekaterina Makarova got DQ’d for striking the back of Na’s head, she has gone on to knock out Asiya Klyutova and submit Xiaocan Feng and Mengnan Liu with her favourite armbar.
We have not seen Ariane Carnelossi (12-2) since her UFC debut back in September 2019. She arrived to the octagon with huge promise. She lost her first professional fight to Amanda Ribas but went on to win her next 12 with eight knockouts and and a submission. However, she was paired with Angela Hill who outclassed on the feet and eventually finished Carnelossi in the third round due to a cut.
PREDICTION
Na boasts a significant six-inch reach and seven-inch height advantage which will be crucial in the striking exchanges as well as in the scrambles on the mat. However, Carnelossi’s equaliser is her power, particularly in her hands so she will look to close the distance and get to work in the pocket.
If Na can use her range to pick the Brazilian off from a distance or get the fight to the floor and look for an armbar she can easily pick up a decision or submission. The only worry is that she has not fought anyone decent.
It is hard to tell how Na will fare against the better opponent, but she does have the attributes to earn her biggest win. That said, are backing Carnelossi to leverage her power to earn a decision but a Liang submission represents the value.