UFC Vegas 24 - Full Card Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 24? Saturday 17th April, 2021 - 23:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 24? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 24? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 24 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 24? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ROBERT WHITTAKER VS KELVIN GASTELUM
The former middleweight champion and one of the most humble fighters in the sport, Robert Whittaker (22-5) makes the walk to the octagon regaining momentum after his knockout loss to Israel Adesanya back in 2019. That title fight loss snapped an incredible nine-fight winning streak, but he looks back to his best with unanimous decisions over top contenders – Darren Till and Jared Cannonier.
Paulo Costa was the next animal lined up for Whittaker but as he has had to pull out, Kelvin Gastelum (16-6(1)) steps up to the plate for another mouth-watering clash. He is also fresh off a classy unanimous decision win over Ian Heinisch which came after a three-fight skid. He also lost to Israel Adesanya giving the champion his toughest ever fight at middleweight in a five-round war. He also lost a decision to Darren Till but a split one and then got submitted by Jack Hermansson.
PREDICTION
They are both former welterweights, but Whittaker is a natural 185 er whereas Gastelum should be down at 170 lbs and if he just committed to losing a bit of excess timber, he would be one of the most threatening title contenders.
Anyway, Whittaker has the size and power advantage complimented by a two-inch reach and three-inch height advantage. Gastelum is used to fighting the bigger fighter and is clearly very accomplished at it, however, besides hand speed, Whittaker has the edge in every area.
They are both quality wrestlers, but we expect this to remain on the feet. Whittaker should have the defence to avoid Gastelum’s rapid 1-2 down the pipe and be able to pile on the combinations. Expect a close opening two rounds but for Whittaker to get stronger as the fight goes on. His cardio will allow him to up the pace and volume, landing on Gastelum the more he fatigues.
Expect Whittaker to throw leg kicks and that jab from the waist catching Gastelum as he tries to close the distance and the looser Whittaker gets the more likely his patented combination finishing with the head kick will land. Gastelum will be expecting that combination but Whittaker’s set-ups will make it so hard to defend against especially as the shorter fighter.
We expect another hard-fought but polished performance from Whittaker with Gastelum’s toughness dragging this to the bell.
Prediction: Whittaker via Decision
JEREMY STEPHENS VS DRAKKAR KLOSE
A fan favourite since his UFC debut all the way back in 2007, Jeremy Stephens (28-18(1)) is without a win in his last five fights. He has come up against absolute monsters which is a testament to his calibre at this stage of his career. He got finished by Jose Aldo before losing a unanimous decision to Zabit Magomedsharipov. He then had that frustrating ‘no contest’ with Yair Rodriguez due to an eye poke in the first few seconds and then went on to lose a unanimous decision in the rematch. Now he is coming off the wrong end of an incredible Calvin Kattar performance which he finished off with a brutal elbow.
Drakkar Klose (11-2-1) is also coming off a brutal knockout. He was building up some momentum with three unanimous decisions in a row over Lando Vannata, Bobby Green and Christos Giagos. However, he crossed paths with the surging Beneil Dariush who is in the form of his life. He actually hurt Dariush but the veteran came back with an electrifying knockout in the second round.
PREDICTION
Stephens moves up to lightweight for this bout which is a decision that may have been pushed along by the fact he missed weight in his last appearance. Klose has had a couple fights fall through this year so he has had a long training camp.
Despite Stephens moving up, they are almost identical physically and Stephen’s knockout power will still carry up a division so we can expect him to look for the knockout set up by kicks and combinations.
They were both knocked out badly in their last fights, but they have good chins. They also have great cardio so we could see a high volume, three-round war and whoever can mix in takedowns and leg kicks most effectively should get the nod.
Prediction: Stephens via Decision
Value Bet: Klose via Decision
ANDREI ARLOVSKI VS CHASE SHERMAN
Andrei Arlovski (30-20(2)) replaces Parker Porter as if he is a newcomer needing an opportunity. He is actually the longest serving UFC fighter making his debut over 21 years ago. He is still slugging it out with the new young blood and picking up wins. He picked up unanimous decisions over Philip Lins and Tanner Boser but met one young gun with too much firepower. He took on Tom Aspinall two months getting outclassed and eventually submitted in the second round.
Although he only fought once last year, Chase Sherman (15-6) has been on a resurgence since getting cut from the UFC in 2018. He went on a three-fight skid losing to Shamil Abdurakhimov, Justin Willis and Augusto Sakai to go 2-5 in the UFC. However, he picked up three knockouts in a row under the Island Fights banner and won his comeback fight against Ike Villanueva with a second-round knockout.
PREDICTION
They match up very similarly physically but Arlovski has done the hard yards sharing the cage with the best. Sherman was very active up until last year including his bare knuckle fights in 2019 but he has not had any notable wins for years.
This will be a technical and slow-paced fight on the feet. They both have the power to find the knockout but Arlovski is more seasoned and has the technique to bag the rounds at least. He takes the fight on short notice so the value is with Sherman as the underdog, but we are expecting another Arlovski decision.
Prediction: Arlovski via Decision
Value Bet: Sherman via KO/TKO
ABDUL RAZAK ALHASSAN VS JACOB MALKOUN
‘Judo Thunder’ Abdul Razak Alhassan (10-3) is in the unfamiliar territory of losing his last two. He took on the debutant Mounir Lazzez on Fight Island last year and it was the first time we saw him get completely outclassed on the feet losing a unanimous decision. He returned three months later to a devastating knockout in which he fell on the wrong side of for once. Alhassan is now desperate to get back on winning track with his 100% knockout rate.
Jacob Malkoun (4-1) is also coming off a devastating knockout. He was 4-0 in fights from 2017-2019 and met Phil Hawes for his UFC debut. Unfortunately for him that debut only lasted 18 seconds before getting assaulted with a barrage of punches.
PREDICTION
It will be very interesting to see how they respond to their knockout losses, especially Malkoun. He has buckets of potential but returning after a debut that could not have gone any worse will be the real test of character.
The strategies for both men should be clear. Malkoun can strike but expect him to call upon his wrestling which is only getting better training with Robert Whittaker. Alhassan is expected to resume as normal and hunt the knockout with his thunderous power.
Malkoun has the ability to bounce back but Alhassan has the ability to bury him with one touch of leather.
Prediction: Alhassan via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Malkoun via Decision
LUIS PENA VS ALEXANDER MUNOZ
Luis Pena (8-3) returns and is hoping to bounce back from a loss and get some more consistent performances under his belt. He has a lot of potential but has come up short against strong opposition. He lost a split decision to Mike Trizano on his debut and showed off his talent when he outpointed Steven Peterson and knocked out Matt Wiman but lost another split decision to Matt Frevola. He responded with a unanimous decision win over Steve Garcia but then got submitted by Khama Worthy.
Alex Munoz (6-1) has also tasted the step-up in competition recently. He won his first six fights including a unanimous decision over Nick Newell on the Contender Series back in 2018. He did not quite do enough to earn the contract, but he bagged another win for Trinity Sport Combat earning a unanimous decision over Troy Lamson to get his opportunity. However, he was paired with the knockout artist Nasrat Haqparast losing a unanimous decision but did take him to a decision.
PREDICTION
Pena will be boasting his usual height and reach advantage as the lanky lightweight. He is expected to start the fight in usual fashion by standing tall in his southpaw stance, picking Munoz off at range looking to pile on damage with accumulative strikes as opposed to knockout blows.
Munoz will look to close the distance with his wrestling and get Pena on his back. Pena is very tricky on the floor and will attack the submissions so Munoz will have to be careful especially considering the long limbs of Pena.
Pena’s 45% takedown defence is a real worry here. He has been taken down in all his UFC fights except for the Worthy one where he still got caught in a submission. He may rely on his jiu-jitsu to get him out of trouble and even wrap up a submission himself, but he is better off keeping the fight on the feet and leveraging his range.
Pena has the edge with his experience but we can also see Munoz wrestle his way to a decision as he is the underdog.
Prediction: Pena via Decision
Value Bet: Munoz via Decision
TRACY CORTEZ VS JUSTINE KISH
It is great to see Tracy Cortez (8-1) back as she has a ton of promise. She only fought once last year which was her second UFC fight cruising past Stephanie Egger to a unanimous decision. That made it three comfortable unanimous decisions in a row after beating Vanessa Melo which was also at bantamweight and outpointing flyweight up and comer Mariya Agapova on the Contender Series.
Justine Kish (7-3) is the next challenge for Cortez, and all of her losses have come in her last four fights. She earnt a unanimous decision over Ashley Yoder on her UFC debut before losing two decisions to Felice Herrig and Ji Yeon Kim. She bounced back with an impressive decision over Lucie Pudilova but she got submitted in her most recent fight by Sabina Mazo getting finished for the first time in her career.
PREDICTION
Kish is an excellent kickboxer and should be able to outclass Cortez on the feet, but that is only if she can prevent the takedown. Cortez is a very strong wrestler with great jiu-jitsu and we fully expect her to succeed in getting the fight to the ground especially as Kish only has a 55% takedown defence.
Herrig is also a strong wrestler and was able to take Kish down with relative ease. We expect Cortez to have an even easier night at the office and could even pull off a submission.
Prediction: Cortez via Submission
ALEXANDER ROMANOV VS JUAN ESPINO
Alexander Romanov (13-0) heads to the APEX hoping to follow up from his two perfect UFC showings. ‘King Kong’ entered the UFC 11-0 and extended that record with an arm triangle over Roque Martinez and then an even more efficient and trademarked ‘forearm choke’ over Marcos Rogerio de Lima which was the third time he has pulled that off in his career.
Juan Espino (10-1) is also a man on a mission and since losing his third fight all the way back in 2011, he has gone on a similar tear. However, injury has stifled his progress. Since, winning The Ultimate Fighter by submitting Justin Frazier in 2018, he has only managed to fight once which was last September. However, it was like he never left as he quickly notched the seventh submission of his career with a brilliant scarf hold on Jeff Hughes.
PREDICTION
This fight should really be on the main card as they are two of the most promising prospects in the heavyweight division. They have both steamrolled their competition and now face the biggest test of their career.
They are also both grappling powerhouses, so it is going to be fascinating to see how they approach this. Romanov is an absolute beast in top position, but ‘El Guapo’ is the better out an out wrestler so he could look for the takedown himself or at least prevent landing on his back unless he clips clipped.
We could easily see their wrestling cancel each other out to create more stand-up than they are used to which Espino’s five-inch reach will give him the edge. That said, Romanov’s power could change the course of the fight at any moment especially if he is as aggressive as usual.
We back Espino for a decision as the better wrestler and as he is the underdog, he represents all of the value, but this will be a close clash.
Prediction: Espino via Decision
Value Bet: Espino via Submission
JESSICA PENNE VS LUPITA GODNIEZ
Jessica Penne (12-5) was part of the original crop of UFC strawweights but since she squeaked past Randa Markos with a split decision in the finale all the way back in 2014, she has lost all three of her fights and been out of action since 2017. She has had an absolutely miserable few years starting with injuries and then faced an 18-month ban for a failed drugs test. It was later reduced to six months after proving a physician had prescribed a supplement with the offending substance. She then had two fights scheduled in 2019 where she missed weight and then injured her ankle on the morning of a fight and then got injured again before the rescheduling. Things only got worse for Penne as she was handed a four-year ban that year for a second infraction which was later reduced to 20 months. She was finally ready to compete again last month, but Hannah Goldy pulled out three days before the fight with a positive COVID-19 test. A horror show.
Providing they both make it to the octagon, Penne will be welcoming Lupita Godinez (5-0) to the UFC for her debut. After an extensive amateur career, Godinez made her professional debut in 2018 and has won all five of her fights since including her most recent bout last October for the Legacy Fighting Alliance. She took on Crystal Vanessa Demopoulos earning a majority decision to set up this opportunity to fill in for Goldy.
PREDICTION
Who knows what Penne will look like on the night. She has not won a fight since 2014 and not fought since 2017. Even when she was last active, she was on a bad skid including two knockouts. Although we cannot read too much into those fights especially as the knockouts were to Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Jessica Andrade. It was a long time ago and she will be a different fighter now evolving her game in the gym.
Godinez has amassed some good experience and looked solid so far in her professional career. She will be giving up a four-inch reach advantage, but she has the form, youth and been active. If Penne returns reborn, she could out strike Godinez mixing in takedowns, but we have to back Godinez considering Penne’s tumultuous lay-off.
Prediction: Godinez via Decision
Value Bet: Penne via Decision
BARTOSZ FABINSKI VS GERALD MEERSCHAERT
Bartosz Fabinski (14-4) returns to the octagon after getting two fights in last year. He had a 16-month lay-off after his submission loss to Michel Prazeres and was due to return amidst the first wave of COVID-19. He still managed to fight Darren Stewart, although under the Cage Warriors banner and he put on a wrestling clinic. He ragdolled Stewart around to earn a comfortable unanimous decision however, he went on to lose his next fight getting submitted again by Andre Muniz back in September.
Gerald Meerschaert (31-14) is still recovering from the Khamzay Chimaev whirlwind. His hype train was in full force when they got paired up and Meerschaert was coming off a knockout loss to Ian Heinisch and the fight could not have gone worse for him. Chimaev is known for his wrestling but he sparked Meerschaert out cold in under 20 seconds to add him the the highlight reel. Meerschaert is now 6-6 in the UFC and desperate for a win.
PREDICTION
Fabinski is the slight favourite mainly due to Meerschaert’s form and this is an interesting match-up. Fabinksi’s wrestling is his biggest threat but he has been submitted twice in his last two fights which will only wet the appetite of Meerschaert who has a staggering 23 submission wins on the record.
We fully expect Fabinski to take Meerschaert down but Meerschaert will be confident he can wrap up a submission. Fabinski has shown a weakness there but he did come up against high-level black belts in Prazeres and Muniz and Meerschaert will really have to hurt Fabinski and put him in enough trouble to find a finish, but we give Fabinski the edge on the feet with his grappling earning the decision.
Prediction: Fabinski via Decision
Value Bet: Meerschaert via Submission
AUSTIN HUBBARD VS DAKOTA BUSH
Austin Hubbard (12-5) walks out for his sixth UFC fight and is 2-3 but he has fought killers already. He fought Davi Ramos on his debut losing a unanimous decision. Responded with a unanimous decision of his own against Kyle Prepolec and was rewarded with a fight against the undefeated Olympic wrestler Mark Madsen losing another unanimous decision. He bounced back again by putting a beating on Max Rohskopf forcing him to quit but then got handed the up-and-coming prospect Joe Solecki losing via submission.
One debutant gets traded for another after Natan Levy got injured a week before the fight. Dakota Bush (8-2) steps up to replace him and is coming into the fight with two great wins for the Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA). His most recent was only in January knocking out Austin Clem which came after submitting Brian De Rosario.
PREDICTION
Hubbard will be the favourite but debutants taking a fight on short notice are always dangerous as they have nothing to lose. Also, Bush has been picking up wins for LFA and his only losses have come to Jaleel Willis (2019) and Bryce Logan (2018) who are both solid fighters so you cannot count him out.
They match up similarly physically with Bush having a slight two-inch reach advantage, but Hubbard will have the edge on the feet.
Hubbard’s grappling continues to improve at Elevation Fight Team, but Bush is a very strong wrestler and hunts the back like a predator. We back Hubbard’s experience and skills on the feet to get the job done but we can easily see Bush's wrestling earning a decision or setting up a submission.
Prediction: Hubbard via Decision
Value Bet: Bush via Decision or Submission
ZARAH FAIRN DOS SANTOS VS JOSIANE NUNES
Zarah Fairn dos Santos (6-4) has had two fights in the UFC but they were miserable outings as she was just making up the numbers in the featherweight division. She took on the former title contenders, Megan Anderson for her debut getting submitted in the first round and the finished via TKO on the ground by Felicia Spencer, again in the first round. She now steps down to bantamweight hoping to give a better account of herself.
Josiane Nunes (7-1) makes her debut riding a six-fight win streak. Her only loss was to Taila Santos who has the makings of a future flyweight title contender and she has only improved since. She has not fought anyone of note, but she has knocked out her last five opponents and bang in form.
PREDICTION
The glaring stat is the difference in range. Dos Santos will boast a significant five-inch reach and height advantage which will only become more prominent in the striking battle.
Nunes can crack with proven knockout power, but she will need more than just heavy hands to land on Dos Santos. Her footwork and speed will need to be on point to close the distance and get in the pocket to offload.
However, we expect Dos Santos to control the range and put her extra weight to use by clinching up and unleashing elbows and knees. Nunes is a decent aggressive fighter like Dos Santos but the size discrepancy should make all the difference here.
Prediction: Dos Santos via Decision
TONY GRAVELY VS ANTHONY BIRCHAK
Tony Gravely (20-6) heads to the APEX for his third UFC fight. He had a tough start to his UFC career getting submitted by Brett Johns last January. The Welshman snapped Gravely’s seven-fight win streak, but he bounced back in November earning a split decision over Geraldo de Freitas.
Anthony Birchak (15-7) kicked off his second stint in the UFC since getting released back in 2016. He took on Gustavo Lopez last November and his comeback did not go to plan at all getting submitted in the first round. He went 2-2 in his first stint and things did not get much better losing three fights in a row for Rizin. He picked up a TKO over Adam Martinez (Combate Americas) and a submission over Raphael Montini de Lima (Legacy Fighting Alliance) before taking this opportunity, but he needs to impress at the APEX to have any future.
PREDICTION
Gravely is hidden among all the bantamweight prospects at the moment but he is very underrated. He will give up three inches in height to Birchak but they have the same reach and this is a good match-up for him.
Gravely negated the range of de Freitas brilliantly in his last fight with clinch work and takedowns and we expect him to have a similar approach here. Gravely may strike more and Birchak will hope he does as he is always happy to oblige in a stand-up trade.
Birchak needs to come out aggressive. He could be fighting for his UFC career and any hesitancy will allow Gravely to control the fight with his grappling. We just not have seen enough from Birchak to suggest he has the tools to get past Gravely so we expect a decision at least.