UFC Vegas 23 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 23? Saturday 10th April, 2021 - 18:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 23? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 23? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 23 on? BT Sport 3
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 23? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
MARVIN VETTORI VS KEVIN HOLLAND
Everyone was bracing themselves for another angry Marvin Vettori (16-4-1) tirade after hearing the news of Darren Till pulling out, but he is just grateful he still has a fight. It is gutting for everyone than Till broke his collar bone as that fight would have unearthed the next contender for Israel Adesanya’s title. That is a fight that Vettori has been obsessed about since they first met back in 2018 and just falling short in a split decision. He has gone on to notch up four impressive wins including unanimous decisions over Cezar Ferreira and Andrew Sanchez before running through Karl Roberson with a first-round submission and he is now coming off his biggest win in earning another unanimous decision over Jack Hermansson in a five-round battle.
Who else than Kevin Holland (21-6) to step up on short notice and take one of the toughest fights in the division. The most active man on the roster only fought three weeks ago and got dominated for five rounds by Derek Brunson. He got completely out wrestled to get his five-fight streak snapped. He was looking exceptional as well, improving with each fight and after knocking out Jacare Souza, many believed he could go on to fight for the title.
PREDICTION
This is the perfect opportunity to get back on track towards a title shot for Holland, but the odds are stacked against him. An impressive win should put the Italian next in line for Adesanya’s belt and he is getting better with each fight.
Looking at how easy Brunson took Holland down, Vettori will be confident he can do the same. He is not as good a wrestler as Brunson, but he has the power and technique to keep Holland down as he did to Hermansson who is a better grappler. Vettori will also be confident in his striking however and Holland will hope he decides to stand.
Holland has to go for the knockout as over five rounds, Vettori will be too strong, too well-rounded and will have the gas tank to suffocate Holland for five rounds. Vettori is a technically sound striker with a granite chin and has never been knocked out so we are firmly backing him to earn a decision at least but as a heavy underdog with a six-inch reach and knockout power, Holland is worth a punt.
Prediction: Vettori via Decision
Value Bet: Holland via KO/TKO
ARNOLD ALLEN VS SODIQ YUSUFF
We have not seen as much of Arnold Allen (16-1) as we would like only fighting once a year since his UFC debut bar 2019 where he got two fights in. Injuries and opponents pulling out have restricted him to seven UFC appearances since 2015 but he is still undefeated on the big stage. After his comeback win and late submission over Mads Burnell he has won three unanimous decisions in a row over Jordan Rinaldi, Gilbert Melendez and Nik Lentz to stretch the streak to nine.
Sodiq Yusuff (11-1) is also steaming up the featherweight ranks riding his own six-fight win streak and yet to taste defeat in the UFC. His sole loss was a knockout in 2017 to Luis Gomez, but after a unanimous decision over Mike Davis on the Contender Series, he has gone on to win all four of his UFC outings with wins over Suman Mokhtarian (TKO), Sheymon Moraes (unanimous decision), Gabriel Benitez (TKO) and Andre Fili (unanimous decision).
PREDICTION
This is a quality match-up and it will both be their toughest test to date. They are very similar physically and well-rounded. Arnold is the better all-round grappler but Yusuff is more explosive.
The battle will start on the feet where Yusuff will look to be the aggressor and use his power to hurt Allen, but he has good defence (67%) and he will be very hard to outland in his southpaw stance. The striking contest will be very even and Allen will have to mix in his grappling to win the rounds.
Allen is a dangerous striker himself with speed and Yussuf can also be hit as we saw in his fights with Benitez and Fili so Arnold will be confident everywhere, but he has to respect his power.
This is a very tough fight to call, so Arnold is the value bet as the underdog especially if he can land some takedowns, but we are going to back Yusuff who has proven himself against better opposition.
Prediction: Yusuff via Decision
Value Bet: Allen via Decision
SAM ALVEY VS JULIAN MARQUEZ
Sam Alvey (33-14-1(1)) can’t buy a win at the moment. He is coming off a draw with Da Un Jung after losing four on the bounce. His last wins were a knockout over Marcin Prachnio and an uneventful split decision over Gian Villante in 2018 and went on to get knocked out by Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Jimmy Crute and then losing decisions to Klidson Abreu and Ryan Spann.
Julian Marquez (8-2) made his comeback after nearly three years out two months ago and he made up for last time. He took on Maki Pitolo submitting him in the third round to earn the ‘performance of the night’. It came with great relief as his last win was another submission over Darren Stewart back in 2017 as he lost a split decision to Alessio Di Chirico in 2018.
PREDICTION
Alvey tries his hand back down at middleweight desperate to pick up a win but this is another tough match-up for him. Alvey has all of the experience and has great cardio but there has been no killer instinct in recent fights.
There are also a lot of holes in Marquez’s game for Alvey to exploit but we expect him to stand in front of Marquez in search of a knockout which could be his undoing. There will be a lot of heavy exchanges but one too many for Alvey could be curtains to his UFC career.
Prediction: Marquez via KO/TKO
NINA ANSAROFF VS MACKENZIE DERN
Nina Ansaroff (10-6) returns for her first fight since giving birth to her daughter. Her last fight was over two years ago losing to Tatiana Suarez which snapped a very impressive four-fight win streak including decisions over Angela Hill, Randa Markos and Claudia Gadelha. Suarez is mauling virtually every strawweight when fully fit and Ansaroff actually looked good in that fight outclassing Suarez whenever the fight was on the feet but succumbed to the wrestling powerhouse.
Mackenzie Dern (10-1) is steadily climbing the strawweight ladder evolving with each fight. She is the most decorated female Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner in the UFC so plan ‘A’ is clearly getting the fight to the ground, but she is filling the striking holes in her game as we saw in her last fight with fellow jiu-jitsu ace Virna Jandiroba, out striking her to earn the unanimous decision and go 5-1 in the UFC.
PREDICTION
The game plan will be clear for both women and that will be for Dern to get the fight to the ground and for Ansaroff to keep it on the feet. Ansaroff is a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu but nowhere near the level of Dern so she will want to avoid the takedown at all costs.
Worryingly for Dern, Ansaroff and she has very good takedown defence (77%) and she defended nine of Suarez’s 13 attempts. If the fight does go to the floor, she will be in trouble, but her takedown and submission defence is good enough to keep the fight on the feet long enough to inflict all the damage.
Ansaroff is one of the most underrated strikers in the division and should be able to defend Dern’s takedown attempts and pick her apart on the feet but cannot afford to make one mistake especially with a long layoff.
Prediction: Ansaroff via Decision
MIKE PERRY VS DANIEL RODRIGUEZ
We know how game Mike Perry (14-7) is and he boasts quality wins over the likes of Paul Felder, Alex Oliveira and a dominant decision over Mickey Gall last year but he is now 3-6 in his last nine and has not knocked anyone out since Alex Reyes in 2017. However, his competition has been fierce with losses to, Santiago Ponzinibbio, Max Griffin, Donald Cerrone, Vicente Luque, Geoff Neal and most recently a unanimous decision loss to Tim Means.
Daniel Rodriguez (13-2) is also coming off a disappointing unanimous decision loss. Nicolas Dalby went home with the win as the heavy underdog snapping Rodriguez’s nine-fight win streak including three UFC wins. He stepped up on short notice to submit Tim Means on his debut and followed it up with a unanimous decision over Gabriel Green and a brilliant knockout over Dwight Grant and now he is desperate to get that form back.
PREDICTION
What a way to kick off the main card as this has ‘fight of the night’ written all over it. Perry is struggling at the moment, but he has fought an array of killers and you cannot count him out especially with his toughness.
However, this is a great opportunity for Rodriguez. He has three inches in reach and height on Perry and there is enough tape on him to predict what his game plan will be. Perry can grapple but as soon as Rodriguez starts to land his jab, Perry will bite down looking for a knockout.
If Perry is fully focused and not distracted, he can box Rodriguez and mix in takedowns to earn a decision at least. However, he has been too inconsistent to outclass somebody of Rodriguez’s calibre.
Rodriguez has good takedown defence and he is expected to combine his speed and range to exploit the holes in Perry’s defence with his durability dragging this out to a decision.
Prediction: Rodriguez via Decision
Value Bet: Perry via Decision
JIM MILLER VS JOE SOLECKI
Jim Miller (32-15(1)) will edge past Donald Cerrone for the record of the most fights in UFC history as he makes his 37th walk to the octagon and he hopes to stretch his existing record of the most wins in lightweight history of 19. He came up short in his last attempt back in August when he lost a unanimous decision to Vinc Pichel but even at 37 years old with 36 fights under the belt, he is still a weapon particularly on the mat. He submitted Roosevelt Roberts prior to the Pichel loss and before losing a decision to Scott Holtzman, he also submitted Clay Guida and Jason Gonzalez.
He takes on prospect, Joe Solecki (10-2) who is at the other end of his UFC career. He got his opportunity on the Contender Series after and seized it by cinching James Wallace up in a guillotine. He made his debut the same year in 2019 against Matt Wiman who is completely over the hill picking up a unanimous decision and had a tougher test last year against Austin Hubbard but made easy work of him by notching up the seventh submission of his career.
PREDICTION
On paper, this looks like a grappler vs grappler match-up as 60% of their combined wins have come via submission. Miller is as seasoned as it gets but it will be fascinating to see these two tangle on the mat.
Solecki will hold his own but his wrestling could swing this in his favour. He has the youth and the cardio to put on a relentless pace and suffocate Miller with his pressure. As long as he does not get caught in Miller’s guillotine as he shoots in, he should be able to edge the striking exchanges and grind Miller down to earn a decision.
Prediction: Solecki via Decision
SCOTT HOLTZMAN VS MATEUSZ GAMROT
Scott Holtzman (14-4) is 7-4 in the UFC now which is impressive in the stacked lightweight division. His losses were to Drew Dober, Josh Emmett and Nik Lentz all via decision however, he is coming off his biggest setback after getting spinning backfisted on to Beneil Dariush’s highlight reel.
The UFC clearly think highly of Mateusz Gamrot (17-1(1)) pairing him up with Holtzman after coming off a debut loss and rightly so as that loss is the only one on his record. It was a tight split decision with Guram Kutateladze who is a beast with a very bright future. Now, Gamrot is hungry to bounce back and show the UFC fans the talent that made him the simultaneous KSW lightweight and featherweight champion.
PREDICTION
This is a very exciting match-up and a tough one both coming off a loss. We can expect a mixture of striking and grappling here as they are both very well-rounded. Gamrot is expected to lean more on his grappling which will have only got stronger training at American Top Team.
He will have his work cut out trying to take Holtzman down however, as he has very good takedown defence so will we see a lot of striking which will also be a very even contest. Despite Holtzman’s recent knockout, he is extremely durable and Gamrot has never been finished out, so a knockout is unlikely.
This will be a fast-paced scrap for a full three rounds as they both have exceptional cardio and we expect a close decision. There is not much between these two, but we expect Gamrot to assume more control in the clinch and securing a few takedowns which will ultimately sway the judges.
Prediction: Gamrot via Decision
Value Bet: Holtzman via Decision
NORMA DUMONT VS ERIN BLANCHFIELD
Norma Dumont (5-1) is coming off a brilliant performance and her first win in the UFC. She arrived to the octagon unbeaten but she stepped up to featherweight to take on the established Megan Anderson and got knocked out in the first round. So, a lot of people wrote her off going into her bantamweight bout with Ashlee Evans-Smith back in November, but she put on a great performance earning the unanimous decision.
Erin Blanchfield (6-1) makes her UFC debut stepping in for Bea Malecki who had to pull out. She is relatively inexperienced as well with only seven professional fights, but she has fought good competition already and has a bright future. Her only loss was to Tracy Cortez for Invicta who is currently on an eight-fight win streak. Blanchfield also has wins over Kay Hansen (decision), Victoria Leonardo (knockout) and is coming off a unanimous decision win over Brogan Walker-Sanchez all for Invicta.
PREDICTION
Blanchfield is an exciting prospect with knockout power and exceptional Brazilian jiu-jitsu. However, she steps up to bantamweight as a natural flyweight and takes this fight on short notice.
She is talented but we are backing Dumont as a national Sanda champion with a weight and power advantage. We expect her to open up with heavy leg kicks and seal a decision with her grappling subduing Blanchfield enough to sway the judges.
Prediction: Dumont via Decision
JOHN MAKDESSI VS IGNACIO BAHAMONDES
UFC veteran John Makdessi (17-7) returns for what we hope is not another annual appearance. He has only fought once a year since 2016 but he has faired well. He enjoyed a three-fight win streak which were all unanimous decisions over Abel Trujillo, Ross Pearson and Jesus Pinedo but came up short in his 2020 outing when the stalwart Francisco Trinaldo bagged the unanimous decision.
Makdessi welcomes Ignacio Bahamondes (11-3) to the UFC and he has his hands full as he has a ton of potential. Besides a split decision win over Chris Brown for the Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA), he has only fought on the regional scene but only lost one of his last eight fights. After that LFA win in September, he got a shot on the Contender Series and made the most out of it by treating Edson Gomez’ head like a football and front kicking him into unconsciousness.
PREDICTION
Bahamondes is the favourite but this is a huge step-up in competition. He is clearly a very dangerous striker, but he has not fought anyone of note whereas Makdessi has all of the experience and he represents all of the betting value.
The most important stats here is the height and reach where Bahamondes boasts seven inches in reach and height which is significant as this will be a striking battle. Makdessi is an out-an-out striker so he will need to call upon all of that experience to close the distance without getting hit.
Bahamondes is extremely dangerous at range with a range of kicks while switching his stance. He has the youth and we can see him utilising his range to pick Makdessi off from a distance, but Chilean has not proved he can do it at this level (yet) whereas Makdessi has been fighting killers for over a decade, so we are leaning towards a decision for the Canadian.
Prediction: Makdessi via Decision
Value Bet: Makdessi via Decision
YORGAN DE CASTRO VS JARJIS DANHO
After Yorgan de Castro’s (6-2-0) murderous knockout of Justin Tafa on his debut in 2019, he has only gone backwards. He took on Greg Hardy in May last year losing a unanimous decision although he did injure his foot early on, but he is coming off another limp unanimous decision loss in October to Carlos Felipe and desperately needs a win now.
Jarjis Danho (5-1-1(1)) has had two UFC fights but they were in 2016 which were a loss and a draw and he has not fought since. He lost a decision to Daniel Omielanczuk on his debut and fought to a draw with Christian Colombo for the Desert Force promotion so his last win was a knockout over Stefan Traunmueller in 2015.
PREDICTION
Danho is likely to come in with a grappling heavy approach to avoid De Castro’s weapons on the feet while tiring him out. However, we have to go with De Castro simply because Danho has not fought for over four and a half years and even when he was active, he was not impressing anyone in the UFC.
De Castro has been more active and we expect his superiority on the feet to get the job done. He will open up with thunderous leg kicks and wait for an opening to find the chin. Danho is durable so a decision is as likely as a knockout.
Prediction: De Castro via KO/TKO
HUNTER AZURE VS JACK SHORE
Hunter Azure’s (9-1) only loss on the record was when he moved up to featherweight to take on Brian Kelleher. It was a great scrap and he even picked up a ‘fight of the night’ bonus, but he ended up getting knocked out in the second round. He returned four months later in September last year and got straight back in the win column with a unanimous decision over Cole Smith.
Jack Shore (13-0) is yet to taste defeat as he makes his third UFC appearance. He arrived to the UFC after smashing it under the Cage Warriors banner and only went to the bell once. He continued his predator behaviour stepping up into the UFC notching the seventh and eighth submissions of his career over Nohelin Hernandez in 2019 and then Aaron Phillips in July last year.
PREDICTION
This is a great match-up between two young bantamweight prospects and an impressive win will really catapult them up the pecking order.
The striking exchanges will be very interesting and Azure will try and keep the fight on the feet at all costs. Shore will be happy to trade and will be dangerous, but he will be waiting to pounce on any opportunity to take Azure’s back.
Azure is a good grappler himself and he has never been in any real danger on the ground so it will be very interesting to see what happens if the fight goes to the floor. We expect this fight to be very evenly unless Shore gets an early takedown.
Azure has good takedown defence but Shore’s wrestling will be relentless. If Shore can defend the heavy shots and leg kicks and time his takedown attempts, he can find the opening he needs to take the back or earn top position to ultimately find another submission.
Prediction: Shore via Submission
LUIS SALDANA VS JORDAN GRIFFIN
Luis Saldana (14-6) makes his UFC debut after four straight finishes. He has not been very active, but he is a very exciting fighter who has finished all 14 of his wins (seven knockouts and seven submissions). After a second loss on the bounce in 2017, he has only fought four times, but he racked up two knockouts and a submission before meeting Vince Murdock on the Contender Series and knocking him out to earn the coveted contract.
Jordan Griffin (18-8) also got his opportunity after impressing on the Contender Series. He submitted Maurice Mitchell back in 2018 but he has had a tough time in the octagon since. He had a very difficult debut in the form of Dan Ige losing a unanimous decision and then losing another to Chas Skelly. He bounced back with a submission over TJ Brown but that is his only win in the UFC as he is coming off another unanimous decision loss, this time to Youssel Zalal which was back in June.
PREDICTION
Both fighters do not have the most impressive records, but this should be an exciting scrap. They match up similarly physically and are both well-rounded.
Griffin is an aggressive southpaw who likes to force the pressure so expect Saldana to have a game plan of countering him as he rushes in. Griffin likes to rush forward with strikes and shoot in for the takedowns and Saldana is clearly very good on the ground as well but expect the majority of this to stay on the feet.
If Saldana can control the distance he should walk away with the win. Griffin can catch Saldana rushing in and if he hurts him, he can drag the fight to the floor but we expect Saldana to do enough to earn his first decision at least and if Griffin is reckless, there could be a knockout.
Prediction: Saldana via Decision
SAM ALVEY VS JULIAN MARQUEZ
Da Un Jung (13-2) flies to Fight Island while flying on a 12-fight win streak. The South Korean arrived to the UFC with question marks about whether he can transfer his performances in the regional scene to the upper echelon of the UFC and so far he has passed with flying colours. He met Khadis Ibragimov who was unbeaten at the time for his debut and guillotined him in the third round and now he is coming off a ruthless knockout over Mike Rodriguez back in December.
He now has a UFC veteran to get past in the form of Sam Alvey (33-14(1)). He walks out for his 19th UFC fight, but he is on a lonely four-fight skid. After starching Marcin Prachnio and outpointing Gian Villante, Alvey got knocked out by Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Jimmy Crute before losing close decisions to Klidson Abreu and Ryan Spann.
PREDICTION
Alvey has all the experience but the pressure is on him to prevent losing five in a row which could be terminal to his UFC career. Unfortunately for him this is not a great match-up either.
Alvey will stand and trade with anyone but Jung is durable and has serious power in his hands. We are all aware of the power Alvey possesses in his hands but if he decides to exchange with Jung, it will not pretty.
Alvey needs to keep moving and mix things up to try and set up a knockout blow as Jung is lethal at close range. He is also extremely dangerous on the floor with heavy ground-and-pound with a submission threat.
Alvey will make it difficult for the South Korean but the odds are stacked against him here.
Prediction: Jung via KO/TKO
IMPA KASANGANY VS SASHA PALATNIKOV
Impa Kasanganay (8-1) returns after falling victim to one of the most electrifying knockouts of all time inflicted by Joaquin Buckley. It is a shame the brutal knockout will continuously be repeated on highlight reels as Kasanganay is a such a humble guy but that is the fight game and dedicated fans will still be aware of his pedigree. He entered that fight back in October as the favourite and unbeaten, fresh off his unanimous decision win over Maki Pitolo and now hopes to continue where he left off after that debut.
Sasha Palatnikov (6-2) had a perfect UFC debut back in November. He arrived to the UFC fresh off a knockout over Paulo Henrique for the UAE Warriors promotion which came in response to getting knocked out by Mounir Lazzez. He had a tough match-up in Louis Cosce but got in three valuable rounds before sealing the third knockout of his career.
PREDICTION
Despite getting spinning back kicked on to every media outlet going, Kasanganay can strike. However, his best route to victory is to call upon his wrestling and stifle the weapons of Palatnikov.
Interestingly, Kasanganay moves down to welterweight which could be a great move considering his skill set but we do not know what that knockout has done to him mentally and any hesitancy against Palatnikov could be curtains.
The Hong Kong native is a technical and ferocious striker and he will patiently hunt the chin but we expect Kasanganay to put his athleticism and power into his wrestling and subdue Palatnikov for three rounds to earn a decision.