UFC 259 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC 259? Sunday 7th March, 2021 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 259? UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 259? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC 259 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC 259? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
JAN BLACHOWICZ VS ISRAEL ADESANYA
Jan Blachowicz (27-8) has been awarded the glamourous superfight for his first light heavyweight title defence. A nice story and good timing for the Pole who’s only loss in his last nine fights was a knockout to Thiago Santos back in 2019. That loss has broken up a sensational streak and he has won his last four with not only quality names but beautiful knockouts. He bounced back from the loss with that glorious left hook to floor Luke Rockhold, followed it up with a split decision over Jacare Souza and is now coming off two more knockouts. He folded Corey Anderson like laundry and then walked down the striker Dominick Reyes and finished him off with that sharp left hand to claim the vacant title.
Israel Adesanya (20-0) had a lot to prove entering the UFC. The kickboxer was 11-0 and completely unproven at the elite level of MMA but in the space of just three years he has risen through a tank of middleweight sharks and has already made two defences of his middleweight title. He took the torch from Anderson Silva two years ago and then earned the interim title against Kelvin Gastelum proving he can win a five-round war. He has not looked back since then and made shockingly easy work of the worthy champion Robert Whittaker with a knockout and then eased past Yoel Romero in an uneventful decision. He is now coming of his most impressive performance where many believed Paulo Costa would give him his hardest test but as we predicted, he schooled the Brazilian on the feet and frankly embarrassed him finishing him off in the second round.
PREDICTION
The stage appears set for Adesanya to become the double champion. He is the new poster boy of the UFC and the striking phenom is expected to simply walk up a division and take Blachowicz’s belt, but the closer you look at this match-up the more intriguing it is.
Adesanya’s range has been his greatest ally with flawless technique to accentuate his striking to the fullest but he will only have a two-inch arm and minimal half-inch leg reach advantage.
Blachowicz has proven so many people wrong in his last fights and he has always known for being a super durable grappler, but his recent knockouts prove he is a threat here. He does not just have a powerful left hand, he is a diverse and technical southpaw with polished kicks.
Ideally, Blachowicz will want to utilise his weight, power and grappling advantage but he will have to be very strategic and use his striking to close the distance. Adesanya is so illusive and if you shoot in, he will be waiting to clip the chin with one of his eight limbs so Blachowicz needs to threaten with his kicks and hope he can corner him against the fence and tie him up in the clinch.
Adesanya is still young in the game and his takedown defence is still improving and as we saw in his fight with Derek Brunson, he slipped out of the takedown attempts effortlessly and countered like a sniper. Blachowicz is not an an out-and-out wrestler like Brunson but his underrated striking is crucial to setting up takedowns or catching Adesanya off guard by striking out of the clinch like he did to Rockhold.
However, Adesanya will be prepared for this and his composure will be key to sliding out of trouble and controlling the range. Blachowicz’s striking is great but nowhere near Adesanya’s level and unless the Pole can stun him with body kicks or his left hand, Adesanya will have all the space he needs to avoid any takedowns and play with his food.
Prediction: Adesanya via Decision
Value Bet: Blachowicz via Decision
AMANDA NUNES VS MEGAN ANDERSON
The only active double champion, Amanda Nunes (20-4) heads to the APEX for her seventh UFC title defence and third defence of the featherweight crown. She arguably holds the most impressive streak ever in MMA taking the scalps of all the best female fighters that have ever lived. She is on an eleven-fight streak and is not slowing down. After moving up a division and knocking out the most feared female fighter at the time, Cris Cyborg to win the featherweight title, she went on to obliterate Holly Holm and earn a unanimous decision over Germaine de Randamie at bantamweight and then hopped back up to earn another unanimous decision over Felicia Spencer back in June.
Megan Anderson (11-4) is next in line and is the last contender of any merit standing in the hollow featherweight division. She is the former Invicta champion and has a record of 3-2 in the UFC with losses to Holly Holm and Felicia Spencer, but she is coming off two dominant wins showing the form that impressed before the UFC. She made quick work of Zarah Fairn Dos Santos wrapping her up in a triangle and is coming of a beautiful knockout over Norma Dumont a year ago.
PREDICTION
Nunes is the greatest female fighter of all time and is better everywhere. She is expected to get the job done standing with the power in her hands and feet but do not be surprised if he calls upon her grappling like she did in the de Randamie fight especially when Anderson has shown weaknesses off her back.
The only way Nunes can lose this is if she is not fully prepared. She has been in eight UFC title fights and beaten the best female fighters of all time and now has another title defence against somebody who hardly anyone expects to win but is pumped up for the biggest moment of her career and will put absolutely everything she has into this opportunity.
Anderson is also a natural 145er and finishes her fights. It could take one mistake for Nunes to get clipped and end up with Anderson hooked in on her back. If she is as motivated as her previous title fights, she will not make a mistake, but this is a strange time at the moment and anything can happen. She is a new mother now with Nina Ansaroff which could motivate her more or cause a distraction in training camp. Who knows but she is so good that this is her fight to lose.
Prediction: Nunes via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Anderson to win
PETR YAN VS ALJAMAIN STERLING
The new bantamweight champion Petr Yan (15-1) makes the first defence of his title in a hugely anticipated clash. Yan has only had seven UFC fights but the only blemish on his record is a split decision loss to Magomed Magomedov back in 2016. Since, he has flourished into his prime with five knockouts in his 10-fight win streak which include his last two performances. Firstly, he knocked out Urijah Faber, but the veteran had just come out of retirement and pulled off a shock knockout over Ricky Simon to falsely lure people to believe he was on Yan’s level. However, Yan took himself to the next level by taking on the former featherweight king Jose Aldo and finishing him in the fifth round to claim the vacant title.
Aljamain Sterling (19-3) finally gets his shot after postponements and it has come at a great time as the ‘Funk Master’ is also in his prime right now. He suffered a painful setback on his road to the title back in 2017 when Marlon Moraes stiffened him with a terrifying flying knee. However, he has compiled arguably the best streak in the division right now including, Brett Johns (unanimous decision), Cody Stamann (submission), Jimme Rivera (unanimous decision), Pedro Munhoz (unanimous decision) and most impressively his recent and ruthless submission over Cory Sandhagen.
PREDICTION
Sterling has not hidden the fact that he plans to take Yan down and hunt a submission. They are both extremely well-rounded but the key for Yan winning is out striking Sterling and he needs to avoid getting tangled up on the canvas.
Yan’s boxing and Muay Thai has always been a thing of beauty but going five-rounds with Aldo and finishing the durable legend proved he has championship calibre striking dangerous for a full five rounds.
Sterling is proving his grappling is championship calibre and he is doing so by mixing everything together so well and that is what he needs to do against Yan. Sterling is a quality striker himself and he mixes in his wrestling seamlessly and can jump on a submission from any angle. Whether he grabs a leg from the back like that amazing Suloev stretch on Stamann or becoming a human backpack like he did to Sandhagen.
Yan has great takedown defence so Sterling needs to be unpredictable and the key will be to strike more especially as Yan is prone to eating too many shots. Just like Khabib Nurmagomedov did to Conor McGregor, it was a right hand that McGregor was not prepared for. If Sterling can catch Yan, there will be various opportunities to tie him up.
Obviously, a risky strategy against one of the most dangerous strikers in the division. If Sterling also fails on the first couple takedown attempts, Yan will be fuelled to go on and dominate the rounds with his striking.
This is such a fascinating match-up and it is going to be a spectacle of world class martial arts. It is hard to pick so Sterling is the smart money as the underdog and 25 minutes is a long time to create scrambles, but we have a feeling Yan could follow up his win over Aldo with an even better performance.
Prediction: Yan via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Sterling via Submission or Decision
ISLAM MAKHACHEV VS DREW DOBER
After three fights falling through last year, Islam Makhachev (18-1) is finally back on his way to the octagon. Fights with Alexander Hernandez and Rafael dos Anjos fell through which has been an unwelcome theme of Makhachev’s UFC career but thankfully he returns after last fighting in September 2019. That was a unanimous decision over jiu-jitsu ace Davi Ramos to stretch his winning run to six. He lost his second UFC fight by getting slept by Adriano Martins but has showcased his grappling prowess since including a knockout of his own over Gleison Tibau back in 2018.
Drew Dober (23-9(1)) and Makhachev were originally scheduled to fight all the way back in 2016 but it fell through due to Makhachev failing a drugs test. Since then, Dober has threatened to break into the upper echelon but had a couple hiccups. He got submitted by Olivier Aubin-Mercier before going on a three-fight win streak but then got submitted by Beneil Dariush to fall back down the pecking order. However, he is back on the march and has never looked better with three knockouts in a row. Firstly, Marco Polo Reyes and then Nasrat Haqparast and Alexander Hernandez last year.
PREDICTION
This is a huge fight for both men as a statement win will could catapult them into the top 10 which is a feat in its own as the lightweight division is littered with animals. Makhachev has promised so much but has not progressed as quickly as he would like with many calling him the next Khabib. Nurmagomedov’s close friend and training partner will always be in a league of his own but Makhachev is not far away when it comes to talent.
The Russian is another beast of a wrestler and one of the very best in the division so he will no doubt call upon these skills in an attempt to throw Dober around the cage and grind him down until he breaks or submits.
The odds suggest this is very likely to happen as Dober is the heavy underdog but everything is coming together for the veteran now and he is knocking people out for fun. He is enormous for the division and he has a clear striking advantage, so he needs to land while he is still fresh.
The worrying stat is Dober’s takedown defence which is only 58%. Hernandez took him down three times in their fight and Makachev is on a different level when it comes to wrestling and he is expected to get the job done with takedowns leading to a potential submission. Dober still managed to knock Hernandez out and that is still a possibility here.
Prediction: Makhachev via Submission
Value Bet: Dober via KO/TKO
THIAGO SANTOS VS ALEKSANDAR RAKIC
Thiago Santos (21-8) is coming off two losses for the second time in his career, but they were to Jon Jones and Glover Teixeira. Who can forget his valiant effort against the light heavyweight ‘GOAT’ where he became the first man to get the nod from a judge against Jones in a split decision and he did so fighting the majority of the fight with a blown out left knee and an injured right. He made a quick recovery considering he was wheelchair-bound for a while but took on Teixeira back in November who is in the form of his career and got out grappled losing a submission. Now he yearns for another sledgehammering streak similar to the one prior the losses that included knocking out the current champion Jan Blachowicz.
Aleksandar Rakic (13-2) has been tearing it up himself with Santos representing one of the final hurdles before a title shot. His blasted his way into the top 10 during a monster 12-fight win streak which included his first four UFC fights. He dipped his toe into the light heavyweight waters with unanimous decisions over Francimar Barroso and Justin Ledet before showcasing his scary power knocking out Devin Clark and Jimi Manuwa which was one of the scariest head kick knockouts we have seen. He then had a blip against Volkan Oezdemir just missing out on a split decision but got straight back on track with a classy unanimous decision against Anthony Smith.
PREDICTION
These guys are absolute monsters with the technique to match their devastating power. They can both grapple, in particular Santos as a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu but their striking is so lethal, grappling has been surplus to requirements so far.
We are in for a treat on the feet and as this is only three rounds it should be even more explosive. Rakic boasts a two-inch arm and four-inch leg reach advantage which will be important the longer this stays technical. If the fight spills out into a brawl either man can fall but Rakic will not want to risk trading careless leather with Santos who is born for a slugfest.
Rakic is the favourite but that is only because Santos has lost his last two. Performance-wise, the only question mark was his game plan against Teixeira, and this is obviously a more favourable match-up for him.
However, his knee injuries are impossible to ignore when he relies on his legs to generate all his power especially his kicks. Rakic also has thunderous leg kicks and if he lands just one clean on Santos’ knee, you just do not know how it will hold up.
Decisions or knockouts either way are likely and a Santos decision represents all the value if you are betting especially if he is as patient as he was in the Blachowicz fight. However, Rakic is expected to pull out a composed performance and his leg kicks could dictate how long the fight lasts.
Prediction: Rakic via Decision
Value Bet: Santos via Decision
DOMINICK CRUZ VS CASEY KENNEY
The clearest indication of how stacked this card is, is that Dominick Cruz (22-3) is on the prelims. We have not seen the excellence and grace of the former bantamweight champion since his third UFC title defence against Urijah Faber back in 2016. Everyone knows injuries have ravaged his career and he has only fought twice since that vintage unanimous win. He lost the title to Cody Garbrandt who pulled out the best performance of his career in 2016 and Cruz eventually returned to fight the new champion Henry Cejudo but got caught with a huge knee which led to suffering the first knockout of his career.
He has accepted an extremely tough match-up in Casey Kenney (16-2-1). He is unranked but is one of the toughest fights to take at the moment. His only loss in his last 10 was to Merab Dvalishvili and he is currently on a three-fight win streak submitting Louis Smolka and earning unanimous decisions over Heili Alateng and Nathaniel Wood.
PREDICTION
Kenney’s record does not compare to Cruz although very few records do but he is improving with every fight and has hardly any holes in his game. He is an outstanding grappler with black belts in judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu and is also very slick on the feet.
However, if just a glimpse of the old Cruz shows up, he will show Kenney a slickness on the feet he as never seen before. Cruz was suffering from plantar fasciitis before the Garbrandt fight which would have hugely hampered his footwork and very few fighters were beating Cejudo at the time they fought let alone with a four-year layoff.
That said, not winning a fight for four years is impossible to ignore and Kenney could pick up the biggest win of his career, but then again Cruz could also end up schooling him. It will not be a classic Cruz matador performance, but not fighting on the prelims and a five-round title fight will only help him and we back him to show enough of that footwork and movement to avoid taking any serious damage and counter with precision to get back to his old winning ways.
Kenney is understandably the favourite based on current form, but if Cruz starts quick with a solid first round, all the value is with him.
Prediction: Cruz via Decision
Value Bet: Cruz via Decision
SONG YADONG VS KYLER PHILLIPS
Song Yadong (16-4-1(1)) is back on his quest in climbing the stacked bantamweight ranks. His last fight was at featherweight but more for convenience with fellow bantamweight prospect Marlon Vera. Song ended up walking away with a unanimous decision, but the fight was incredibly close and on another night, the decision could have fallen to Vera. That win came off a draw with Cody Stamann and Yadong is now unbeaten in nine.
Kyler Phillips (8-1) is another exciting and talented prospect, but he still has a lot of work to do to penetrate the rankings. He has won his last three and looked exceptional in his two UFC fights. He met Gabriel Silva on his debut earning a unanimous decision and then made easy work of the dangerous newcomer Cameron Else, finishing him off with violent elbows in the second round.
PREDICTION
The UFC matchmakers may have shown their hand in who they thought won the Vera fight by pairing Yadong up with an unranked fighter. That said, on paper this has the makings of an epic scrap.
Phillips looks like the real deal and has buckets of potential. He is electric on the feet with flashy yet effective spinning kicks complimented by a solid grappling game. Yadong is also incredibly well-rounded and extremely dangerous on the feet with a lot of power in his hands.
Yadong has the edge when it comes to experience, but they are evenly matched everywhere else. This fight is destined to be a fast-paced and exciting battle with some crazy exchanges on the feet and it could go either way.
They are very young and whoever loses will have a lot of time to get back to the top so we hope they hold nothing back. We give Yadong the edge as he has proven himself already at the top level, but Phillips has every chance of collecting the biggest in of his career.
Prediction: Yadong via Decision
Value Bet: Phillips via Decision
JOSEPH BENAVIDEZ VS ASKAR ASKAROV
The longest serving flyweight Joseph Benavidez (28-7) is back after those brutal back-to-back title fight losses to Deiveson Figueiredo last year getting knocked out in the first fight and then submitted in the second to remove all doubt. It seems the perennial contender will never get his hands on the UFC gold after his fourth failed attempt and there is no doubting he is still a top contender but he has a very tough match-up to remind everyone of that.
Askar Askarov (12-0-1) is not a household name yet but he is unbeaten and has all the potential to fight for a title himself in the near future. He put his name on the map on his UFC debut by fighting to a hard-fought draw with the recent title challenger Brandon Moreno and then went on to earn unanimous decisions over Tim Elliott and Alexandre Pantoja last year to announce himself as the new contender in the division.
PREDICTION
Benavidez is coming off two devastating losses and he is up against a young and hungry beast who is not even in his prime yet. It is an odd fight for Benavidez to take as despite Askarov’s pedigree, he does not have anything to gain besides holding on to his high ranking which he has always held.
Askarov is an incredible wrestler and his striking is getting better and better, but he will not bring much to the table Benavidez has not seen before and this will all depend on what Benavidez turns up. If he is motivated, he has the speed and experience to win all the exchanges.
However, if Benavidez simply wants a win to make up for the recent losses and takes Askarov too lightly, he is going to have a very miserable night. The value is with Benavidez as the underdog but Askarov is a future title contender and this could be his fast-track pass.
Prediction: Askarov via Decision
Value Bet: Benavidez via Decision
ROGERIO BONTORIN VS KAI KARA-FRANCE
We last saw Rogerio Bontorin (16-2(1)) a year ago at UFC Fight Night 167 where Ray Borg snapped his four-fight win streak with a unanimous decision. After racking up the 11th submission of his career on the Brazilian Contender Series back in 2018, he went on to earn a split decision over Magomed Bibulatov and then force the doctor to stop his fight with Raulin Paiva for his last win but that was back in August 2019.
Kai Kara-France (21-9(1)) is also coming off a loss which came on Fight Island at UFC 253. It was a thrilling clash for as long as it lasted but Brandon Royval came out on top with a submission in the second round. This was his second loss in his last three with Brandon Moreno outpointing him back in December 2019 but Royval and Moreno are two of the best in the division and they are Kara-France’s only losses in his last 11.
PREDICTION
Borg completely ragdolled Bontorin subduing his threat on the ground but he is going to have to call upon some of his own wrestling here to find a submission on Kara-France who has a clear advantage in the striking department.
Bontorin was unable to display his Brazilian black belt skills against Borg but if this fight goes to the ground it will be a completely different story. Bontorin will work hard for the takedown but Kara-France has a very impressive 90% takedown defence in the UFC and this should enable him to keep the fight on the feet long enough to win the rounds with his superior striking.
Prediction: Kara-France via Decision
TIM ELLIOTT VS JORDAN ESPINOSA
The ‘OG’ of the flyweights, Tim Elliott (16-11-1) is still churning out the fights in his second stint in the UFC. His career was in the balance last year after losing three on the bounce, but they were to three of the best in the division. He got submitted by the current champion Deiveson Figueiredo in October 2019, lost a unanimous decision to prospect Askar Askarov three months later and then got submitted again by Brandon Royval. However, he got back in the win column on Fight Island by earning a unanimous decision over Ryan Benoit.
Jordan Espinosa (15-8(1)) has only had five UFC fights and has struggled to make any kind of dent. He won his debut with a unanimous decision over Eric Shelton but went on to get submitted by Matt Schnell and Alex Perez. He picked up a unanimous decision over Mark De La Rosa but is coming off another unanimous decision loss to David Dvorak to go 2-3 in the UFC.
PREDICTION
The flyweight division has been repopulated with beasts and the standard is getting better and better so as they are both struggling to get a run going, a bad loss here could be curtains to their UFC career.
Elliott has a clear experience advantage even with the losses sharing the cage with the top tier. There is little between them on paper, but Espinosa is the more technical striker whereas as Elliott is a better grappler and his grinding persistence could be the key to getting the win.
Espinosa is also a good grappler himself who looks for the takedown, but he will want to keep this fight on the feet. Elliott is expected to make this a scrappy fight and set up takedowns with his unorthodox striking with his nous earning a decision.
Prediction: Elliott via Decision
KENNEDY NZECHUKWU VS CARLOS ULBERG
Kennedy Nzechukwu (7-1) emerges for the first time in 19 months after he picked up his first win in the UFC. After six impressive wins including two on the Contender Series - a split decision win over Anton Berzin (2017) and a head kick TKO over Dennis Bryant (2018) he got his shot in the UFC but was matched with Paul Craig and became another victim of his triangle choke to suffer the first loss of his career. He bounced back with a unanimous decision over Darko Stosic and now hopes for more cage time this year.
Carlos Ulberg (3-0) walks out for his UFC debut and fourth professional MMA fight and will be better known locally as a model and contestant on the ‘Game of Bros’ reality series in New Zealand, but he is an interesting prospect. He trains with one of the best teams in the world at City Kickboxing with the champions Israel Adesanya and Alexander Volkanovski and he enters the UFC from a successful kickboxing background and King of the Ring winner. He won his first MMA fight in 2011, returned in 2018 and then appeared on the Contender Series back in November brutally knocking out Bruno Oliveira to state his intentions in the UFC.
PREDICTION
A very intriguing fight here as Nzechukwu hopes to hand out a lesson but the UFC have been very clever matching the newbie with a fellow striker. They could have easily matched Ulberg up with a grappler to see if he has what it takes to get far but this is a much more exciting match-up. They are both dangerous strikers with knockout power and will look to pit their strengths against each other.
Nzechukwu will boast a six-inch reach advantage and has the MMA experience but this will be a stand-up battle and Ulberg has the striking experience. He is also very talented and technically better on the feet, so we back him to get the win earning a decision or knockout.
Prediction: Ulberg via KO/TKO
Prediction: Nzechukwu via Decision or KO/TKO
SEAN BRADY VS JAKE MATTHEWS
Sean Brady (13-0) has the makings of being an absolute force in the welterweight division. He entered the UFC at 10-0 with still a lot to prove but he has gone on to earn unanimous decisions over Court McGee and Ismail Naurdiev and is coming off his most impressive win by submitting Christian Aguilera back in August earning a ‘performance of the night’ bonus in the process.
Since moving up to welterweight, Jake Matthews (17-4) has looked exceptional. He is 6-1 in the division with a submission loss to Rocco Martin sandwiched in between the six wins which include a unanimous decision over Li Jingliang and he is coming off two more unanimous decisions over Emil Meek and Diego Sanchez.
PREDICTION
This is a fantastic match-up and a great test for both fighters. Matthews has all of the experience, but Brady has more momentum with his submission as Matthews should have been a lot more clinical against Sanchez. Sanchez is super durable, but it was a mismatch and Matthews should be disappointed to not get the finish.
They match-up very similarly as very big and strong welterweights who are very well-rounded with powerful grappling. This is clearly Brady’s toughest fight, but it is also a tough match-for Matthews as his only loss at welterweight was to Martin who is also a strong grappler with great cardio.
We should see a mixture of striking and grappling at a furious pace and it should be a very even contest. Brady is the favourite as he has barely tasted any adversity so far and he is constantly improving with a good team behind him. He is expected to earn the decision and biggest win of his career, but the value is with Matthews as the experienced, well-rounded and durable underdog.
Prediction: Brady via Decision
Value Bet: Matthews via Decision
LIVIA RENATA SOUZA VS AMANDA LEMOS
The former Invicta strawweight champion Livia Renata Souza (14-2) got her UFC career back on track with a unanimous decision win over Ashley Yoder back in August after Brianna Van Buren snapped her four-fight streak. Her first loss was a split decision to Angela Hill losing her Invicta title, but she is 3-1 in the UFC now and hopes to build another streak.
Amanda Lemos (8-1-1) suffered the first loss of her career on her UFC debut against Leslie Smith. That seemed like an age ago back in July 2017 and after serving a two-year ban for testing positive for a banned substance she dropped two divisions from bantamweight to strawweight and kicked off her comeback with a submission over Miranda Granger in 2019. The 20-pound drop has clearly worked as she then met Mizuki Inoue back in August last year earning a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
Lemos at 115 pounds is a beast. She has knockout power, fluid on the feet, can grapple and is still improving. However, Souza is tried and tested at strawweight and all the value is with her as the underdog especially if she takes a grappling heavy approach.
That said, if Lemos can defend the takedown and create space, she will piece Souza up. She has a clear advantage when it comes to speed and power and if her takedown defence is on point she will exploit that but if not, Souza will walk away with the decision.
Prediction: Lemos via Decision
Value Bet: Souza via Decision
UROS MEDIC VS AALON CRUZ
Uros Medic (6-0) makes his anticipated debut protecting his unbeaten record. He racked up five wins for the Alaska Fighting Championship over the course of three years, so he was still completely unproven. However, he met Mikey Gonzalez on the Contender Series in August last year and looked exceptional finishing him with a thunderous body kick in the first round.
Aalon Cruz (8-3) made a similar statement on the Contender Series in July 2019 when he caught Steve Nguyen with a picture-perfect flying knee folding him to the canvas. However, he only made his UFC debut a year ago where he suffered the first knockout of his career getting caught up in a Spike Carlyle rampage.
PREDICTION
Both men are big rangy lightweights and Cruz is even moving up from featherweight. They are both dangerous and aggressive strikers which will create a thrilling scrap. Cruz is used to to being the bigger fighter and will still boast a significant seven-inch reach advantage up a division, but he will not be used to fighting guys as big as Medic.
Medic is the favourite and is expected to win the stand-up battle but although Cruz has not fought in a year, you cannot count him out as he has the power to cause Medic problems. We back Medic to get the job done on the feet and may even finish Cruz off with a submission if he rocks him but there is still value in Cruz as the underdog.
Prediction: Medic via Submission
Value Bet: Cruz via KO/TKO
MARIO BAUTISTA VS TREVIN JONES
Mario Bautista (8-1) steps in for Randy Costa who got injured and is promising big things for his UFC career. The first statement he made was accepting a fight with Cory Sandhagen on short notice for his UFC debut. He got submitted in the first round but put his unbeaten record on the line and has since bounced back with two exciting displays. He beat Jin Soo Son via unanimous decision six months later in July 2019 and met Miles Johns a year ago introducing him to a flying knee and walking away with the TKO.
Trevin Jones (12-6) is grateful Bautista has stepped up to keep a spot on the stacked card. After losing two split decisions on the regional scene, Jones bounced back with two submissions which lead to him filling in for Mark Striegl at UFC on ESPN 15 to fight Timur Valiev for his debut. He was the heavy underdog but pulled off a huge comeback TKO only for it to be overturned to a ‘no contest’ due to testing positive for marijuana. However, he has served his ban and raring to go.
PREDICTION
These guys will kick off the card in style and should put on a very exciting fight. Bautista steps up on short notice so Jones is better prepared and should finish the fight strong but Bautista is technically better in every department with more valuable experience. Bautista is good enough to find a knockout or submission, but it would have to be early and a decision is more likely.