UFC Vegas 20 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 20? Saturday 27th February, 2021 - 23:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 20? UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 20? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 20 on? BT Sport 3
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 20? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
JAIRZINHO ROZENSTRUIK VS CIRYL GANE
Jairzinho ‘Bigi Boy’ Rozenstruik (11-1) is back on the knockout train after finishing Junior dos Santos back in August. An important win because three months prior he got caught in a Francis Ngannou whirlwind and although there was no technique on offer, Ngannou clipped him with his unholy power just 20 seconds into the fight. Many have taken a nap in his coffin but now Rozenstruik wants to remind everyone that he is right behind Ngannou as one of the most devastating knockout artists in the UFC.
He takes on the biggest heavyweight prospect in the UFC Ciryl Gane (7-0) who has only had four UFC fights, but his raw talent has propelled right up the ladder. After submitting Raphael Pessoa and Don’Tale Mayes he picked up his first decision win over Tanner Boser which earnt him a fight with the former heavyweight champion dos Santos. He passed the biggest test of his career with flying colours finishing him via TKO.
PREDICTION
The only thing holding Gane back has been his activity with illness and several cancellations, so it is not quite clear how high his ceiling is yet. He has all the tools and if he can get past Rozenstruik as well as dos Santos it will show he also has what it takes mentally.
That is because he needs a game plan against the experienced kickboxer with one-punch knockout power. If he wants to stand-and-trade with Rozenstruik, he is going to have to bee calculated and patient like Overeem was and unleash his power at the right time.
It is hard to pick against Rozenstruik in a stand-up battle with his experience, but we have not seen Gane in any trouble yet and he still has room for improvement. He has a grappling, athleticism and three-inch reach advantage and if he can put it all together he can finesse Rozenstruik and set up traps for a finish.
It is very hard to pick between these two and Gane gets the nod with his patience and evolution being key while Rozenstruik offers all the value as the underdog. What we do know is that this will be a classy battle between Rozentruik’s kickboxing and Gane’s Muay Thai with ferocious power and may even see Gane’s submission game. This is going to be a great fight.
Prediction: Gane via Decision
Value Bet: Rozenstruik via KO/TKO
NIKITA KRYLOV VS MAGOMED ANKALAEV
After Nikita Krylov (26-7) went 1-2 in his second stint in the UFC it seemed his name was not written in the UFC stars after showing so much potential. However, his losses were to Jan Blachowicz via submission and Glover Teixeira via split decision and they do not look bad at all now as those guys have gone on to show the best form of their careers. Blachowicz is now the champion and Teixeira is on a phenomenal five-fight streak. Krylov also submitted Ovince Saint Preux in between those losses and is coming off a unanimous decision over Johnny Walker so he is clearly still a force to be reckoned with at 205 lbs.
Besides getting caught in Paul Craig’s triangle with one second remaining, Magomed Ankalaev (14-1) has been an unstoppable force. That is the sole loss of his career and after that unfortunate debut he has gone on to steamroll his next five opponents. He knocked out Marcin Prachnio, bagged a unanimous decision over Klidson Abreu, dispatched Dalcha Lungiambula with a beautiful front kick and then after their controversial first fight that should not have been stopped, Ankalaev removed all doubt in putting Ion Cutelaba to sleep in the rematch back in October.
PREDICTION
The light heavyweight division is finally getting exciting again and this is mouth-watering match-up is one of many lined up at the moment so either man can get a head start on the top contenders.
Ankalaev is an absolute assassin on the feet and has the power to match his technique. Krylov is also lethal on the feet with knockout power with 10 knockouts on the resume but his experience was displayed in full colour when he decided to call on his grappling skills against Johnny Walker who is ferociously dangerous on the feet.
So, expect a similar game plan from Krylov who will mix in takedown attempts with strikes to avoid Ankalaev’s weapons on the feet. However, Ankalaev is also a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo so he has superb defensive grappling and that will be the key to keeping the fight on the feet long enough to prove his class on the feet, but this should be his toughest test to date.
Prediction: Ankalaev via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Krylov via Decision or Submission
MONTANA DE LA ROSA VS MAYRA BUENO SILVA
Montana De La Rosa (11-6) did well just to get two fights in last year with all the cancellations. She dominated Mara Romero Borella to a unanimous decision which was a great response to her first loss in the UFC eight months prior when Andrea Lee bagged the unanimous decision. Unfortunately, De La Rosa fell on the wrong side of a unanimous decision again in her last fight against Viviane Araujo.
Mayra Bueno Silva (7-1) also fought twice last year winning one and losing one and it was the first time we saw her since 2018 when she submitted Gillian Robertson on her UFC debut. However, it was a rusty return losing a unanimous decision to Maryna Moroz but she got back to normal with a merciless submission over Borella.
PREDICTION
Do not expect a striking masterclass here as they are grapplers by trade. De La Rosa is a wrestler who actively looks for submissions and Silva is a jiu-jitsu specialist which on paper at least, will create an awkward fight.
We could see De La Rosa rely on her wrestling to assume top control defending Silva’s submission attempts off her back or their grappling could cancel each other out to create a limp striking battle.
The only likely finish is a Silva submission with a close decision also likely if De La Rosa tries to wrestle for three rounds or they decide to strike but this is tough to predict.
Prediction: Silva via Submission
PEDRO MUNHOZ VS JIMMIE RIVERA
Pedro Munhoz (18-5(1)) has failed to kick on from that fire fight with Cody Garbrandt two years ago. Few people would have backed against the knockout artist in a brawl but when their fight spilled out, it was the Brazilian that landed the killer blow exposing the former champion’s defence. Since, then he has fought twice but lost a unanimous decision to Aljamain Sterling although he is now at the front of the line of title contenders and then lost a very tight split decision to Frankie Edgar back in August to drop down the pecking order.
Jimmie Rivera (23-4) has also hovered in the top 10 bantamweights with only the best repelling him from the top tier. Marlon Moraes was the first to derail him with that crisp head kick knockout and then after earning a vintage unanimous decision win over John Dodson, the best in the division right now, Sterling and champion Petr Yan handed him unanimous decision losses to kick him out the queue. Rivera now hopes to get back on track after the battle of the barrels where he earnt the 17th decision of his career over Cody Stamann.
PREDICTION
Munhoz was the 17th victim in Rivera’s 20-fight win streak back in 2015 but so much has happened since and both fighters have gained priceless experience making this a fascinating match-up.
Hopefully, we will see a mixture of striking and grappling. Rivera is a technically sound boxer with solid wrestling and Munhoz is a dangerous kickboxer with a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Rivera has the edge when it comes to speed and will be able to maintain a suffocating pace for 15 minutes. So, Munhoz needs to land clean on Rivera and fire in leg kicks ready to pounce with his guillotine if Rivera catches the leg in a takedown attempt. He needs to hurt Rivera to at least slow him down but will give up a reach with his tiny arms so he will have to be calculated.
If Rivera can maintain his excellent striking defence (61%) and avoid getting clipped by Munhoz, he will have the cardio and output to steal the rounds and earn another decision.
Prediction: Rivera via Decision
ANGELA HILL VS ASHLEY YODER
Angela Hill (12-9) is a lot better than the record suggests. She has been fighting the best strawweights in the world since she started in MMA and has also got unlucky in a few decisions. After three excellent wins knocking out Ariane Carnelossi and Hannah Cifers before earning a unanimous decision over fellow Muay Thai specialist Loma Lookboonmee, she met Claudia Gadelha for a big step up. She looked great against the grappler and somehow lost a split decision and then followed that up with another split decision loss against Michelle Waterson which was a great battle.
Ashley Yoder (8-6) walks out for her eighth UFC fight, but it does not seem she will ever break into the upper echelon of fighters. She lost to Hill on her second UFC appearance via unanimous decision and Mackenzie Dern handed her a third loss in a row with a tight decision which has been a theme of her career. She responded with close decision wins over Amanda Cooper and Syuri Kondo before close decision losses to Randa Markos and Livia Renata Souza and is now coming off a more convincing unanimous decision win over Miranda Granger.
PREDICTION
Yoder landed three takedowns in their fight back in 2017 but Hill out struck her to get the nod from the judges. The game plan will be the same for Yoder and she will look to close any distance and tie Hill up with her grappling, drag her to the ground and work on a submission.
However, since that fight, Hill has looked a lot more impressive and has continued to evolve. Her striking was always better than Yoder and she is even more finely tuned on the feet now as well as her takedown defence which will be key to keeping the fight where she wants it. A finish is very unlikely considering all of Yoder’s fights have gone to a decision.
Prediction: Hill via Decision
ALEX CACERES VS KEVIN CROOM
Alex Caceres (17-12(1)) is in the best form of his UFC career winning three on the bounce. He is 12-10(1) in the promotion now and the UFC clearly like to match him up with prospects and submission artists. After feeding him into Kron Gracie’s rear-naked choke two years ago, he has not lost. He won a unanimous decision against Steven Peterson and then spoilt the party by beating the next submission prospect Chase Hooper and frankly embarrassed him in a unanimous decision. He then followed it up with a submission of his own against Austin Springer.
Kevin Croom (21-12(1)) heads to the APEX with 10 submissions under his belt and should of had his 11th on his UFC debut. He stepped up on late notice and caused the upset against Roosevelt Roberts catching him in a guillotine however, it was later overturned to a ‘no contest’ due to testing positive for marijuana after the fight.
PREDICTION
Caceres put on a clinic against Hooper who was a massive favourite on the night. He stuffed the takedowns and outclassed him on the feet and he needs to emulate that performance against Croom.
Croom is more well-rounded than Hooper but he is still not on Caceres’ striking and technique is on a different level, so he will be wise to look for the submission. However, he is still expected throw down with Caceres hoping to catch him early like he did Roberts so he can jump on a choke.
If the fight does go to the floor, Caceres is in trouble, but the UFC veteran has too much experience and his calmness will help him dictate the pace and keep enough space to snipe from his southpaw stance. It should be enough to earn a decision but Croom is a wildcard and anything can happen.
Prediction: Caceres via Decision
Value Bet: Croom via Submission
ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ VS THIAGO MOISES
Donald Cerrone and Drew Dober have been stumbling blocks on Alexander Hernandez’s (12-3) road towards the top, but he is still young and it remains to be seen if he has the makings of beating that calibre of fighter or if he still has room to improve. He did knockout Beneil Dariush who is on fire right now but with the help of a cheap shot. He also managed to earn a unanimous decision against Francisco Trinaldo in between his losses and is coming off an efficient knockout over Chris Gruetzemacher but now needs to past the next test up a level.
That level is Thiago Moises (14-4) who has also had a couple losses stifle his rise. He lost unanimous decisions to Dariush and Damir Ismagulov which happens to some of the best, but he is coming off two wins although they were not dominant. Michael Johnson was piecing him on on the feet until Moises decided to snatch his ankle and submit him at the start of the second round and he is coming off a unanimous decision over Bobby Green but was fortunate to sway all the judges.
PREDICTION
If either fighter want to get near the top 10, they have to get an impressive win here and it is a very interesting stylistic match up. Hernandez is an explosive striker with a wrestling base and Moises is well-rounded but a beast on the mat as a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
So, Hernandez may decide to avoid tangling on the mat completely and rely on his speed on the feet to find a knockout. He will also have looked at Johnson’s first round against Moises and although Hernandez does not have the technique of Johnson, he has the power and we expect him to back his hands.
We back Hernandez to earn a decision at least and use his wrestling as a ‘plan B’, but his arrogance could work against him. If he takes Moises too lightly, he will pay for it especially if he makes a mistake on the ground.
Prediction: Hernandez via Decision
Value Bet: Moises via Submission
SABINA MAZO VS ALEXIS DAVIS
Sabina Mazo (9-1) is another exciting prospect and has started her career at flyweight. The 23-year-old suffered the first loss of her career on her UFC debut losing a unanimous decision to Maryna Moroz but she has steadily improved since. She returned with a much more comfortable outing and unanimous decision over Shana Dobson and followed it up with a closer split decision win over JJ Aldrich. She is now coming off her most impressive performance in submitting Justine Kish back in September.
Part of the first crop of female UFC fighters, Alexis Davis (19-10) is at the other end of her career and struggling to keep afloat among the new breed. Her last wins were in 2017 earning decisions over Cindy Dandois and Liz Carmouche but she has become the gatekeeper of the division losing three unanimous decisions in a row to Katlyn Chookagian, Jennifer Maia and Viviane Araujo.
PREDICTION
This is a great match-up for Mazo as Davis has all the experience but is past her best, so this is a great opportunity to build her stock. They also both move up to bantamweight so it will be very interesting to see how they look.
We expect Davis to look better up at 135 lbs and you cannot count her out with her experience. Mazo is improving with every fight but Davis has the nous to take the fight away from Mazo by tying her up and keeping her pinned to the cage.
That said, we firmly back the favourite who may not be as technical as Davis but is a lot more dangerous on the feet especially with her kicks and has the speed to outland Davis to a decision.
Prediction: Mazo via Decision
Value Bet: Davis via Decision
VINCE CACHERO VS RONNIE LAWRENCE
Vince Cachero (7-3) returns and hopes to make amends for his debut loss back in August. He had a tough first fight in fairness against Jamall Emmers but he took him to a unanimous decision. He has now lost three of his last four after Casey Kenney handed him his first loss knocking him out in their bantamweight title fight for the Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) followed by a split decision loss to Liudvik Sholinian. He broke up the losses with a TKO over Marvin Garcia before the call-up and now welcomes a newcomer and is desperate to get a new run going.
Ronnie Lawrence (6-1) makes his debut and is coming in riding a three-fight win streak. He lost a unanimous decision to Steve Garcia for Bellator back in 2018 but he bounced back with a TKO over Michael Ricketts and a unanimous decision over Garrett Armfield before earning the coveted contract by earning another unanimous decision over Jose Johnson on the Contender Series in September.
PREDICTION
Ronnie Lawrence is coming of age and is in red hot form after causing the upset on the Contender Series. He showed maturity in displaying his grappling but if the brawler comes out in him we will see an exciting showdown as Cachero will not back down.
A stand-up contest will a great three-round battle and Cachero has decent takedown defence, but it may not be enough to escape his grasp and prevent Lawrence stealing the rounds. If Cachero can stifle the takedown attempts he can easily win a decision with his output on the feet but we expect Lawrence’s wrestling along with his more powerful strikes and spinning kicks to impress the judges more and earn the decision.
Prediction: Lawrence via Decision
DUSTIN JACOBY VS MAXIN GRISHIN
Dustin Jacoby (13-5) returns for his second UFC fight after knocking Justin Ledet out of the UFC. He handed him his fourth loss on the bounce after chewing up his leg and finishing him off in the first round leading to him getting cut from the promotion. That made it three wins in a row after his unanimous decisions over Cody East at heavyweight and Ty Flores on the Contender Series back at 205 lbs.
Maxin Grishin (31-8-2) made a similar statement in his last fight back in October. He finished Gadzhimurad Antigulov after fending off his takedown attempts in what turned out to be his last fight in the UFC. That was a much smoother outing and glimpse of his potential after he stepped up on short notice to take on established UFC heavyweight Marcin Tybura. He lost that debut but took the veteran to a decision.
PREDICTION
This is a great match-up to kick off the UFC Vegas 20 card with their knockouts setting this up perfectly. They are much better than their previous opponents and a statement win would add them to the pile of emerging light heavyweight contenders.
They are both heavy-handed sluggers and will actively search for the knockout. Grishin has more experience but Jacoby’s kickboxing experience will make up for that if the fight remains of the feet.
We expect them to exchange leather, kicks and not spend much time focusing on their defence. Jacoby especially throws looping shots leaving his chin exposed and we expect one man to fall.
We back the Russian to get the better of Jacoby with counters and if his leg kicks begin to land, he can call upon his grappling to take Jacoby to the ground. If the takedown is his ‘plan A’ we could see a decision but if Grishin comes out firing a knockout is most likely.