UFC Vegas 21 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 21? Saturday 13th March, 2021 - 23:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 21? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 21? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 21 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 21? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
LEON EDWARDS VS BELAL MUHAMMAD
At last, Leon Edwards (18-3) is back in the cage. Nearly 20 months he has been on the side lines waiting for a fight he deserves. He finally got that fight with Tyron Woodley at UFC Fight Night 183, but it was the first event to get cancelled due to COVID-19. More time went by and in the meantime Khamzat Chimaev was causing a storm and calling everybody out and Edwards eventually caved in and accepted the fight. In another twist of bad luck they both contracted COVID-19 forcing two scheduling to be cancelled. It seemed Edwards was never going to catch a break but Belal Muhammad has stepped up in attempts to snap Edwards’ eight-fight winning streak with his latest wins being decisions over Donald Cerrone, Gunnar Nelson and Rafael dos Anjos back in July 2019.
Belal Muhammad (18-3) steps up to replace Chimaev fresh off his unanimous decision win over Dhiego Lima last month. Muhammad has also quietly risen up the rankings over the years with his only loss in his last nine fights being a unanimous decision loss to Geoff Neal. Since then, he has eased passed Curtis Millender, Takashi Sato, Lyman Good and Lima in unanimous decisions apart from Sato who he submitted to earn the ‘performance of the night’.
PREDICTION
They match-up very similarly on paper as very strong grapplers but Edwards has the slight edge in the striking department along with a two-inch reach and three-inch height advantage.
Edwards is also the favourite despite the difference in activity and Muhammad is certainly a live dog, but we are backing Edwards. He has continued to train like a maniac and he has a heavy chip on his shoulder desperate to prove a lot of people including his haters wrong by earning a number one contender spot.
He has not earnt many fans which is in part due to his lack of finishing, and we expect him to earn another decision here. Muhammad’s strengths lie in his wrestling, but Edwards has the skill and power to stuff the takdowns and his patented elbows will always be a threat coming out of the clinch.
Muhammad has a very high fight IQ but we have not seen enough from him to suggest he can knock Edwards out or submit him so he will have to out strike or out wrestle him which nobody has done since Kamaru Usman back in 2015.
This should still be a close fight, but Edwards will not slow down for five rounds and if he can target Muhammad’s calf like Lima did, he can slow him down to cruise the championship rounds.
Prediction: Edwards via Decision
Value Bet: Muhammad via Decision
MISHA CIRKUNOV VS RYAN SPANN
We have not seen Misha Cirkunov (15-5) in the cage for one and a half years but what an unforgettable performance it was. Coming off a brutal knockout loss, he met fellow submission artist Jimmy Crute and humbled the young prospect by catching him in a majestic Peruvian necktie. A very welcome ‘performance of the night’ after three brutal losses out of his four fights prior. He got knocked out by Volkan Oezdemir and Glover Teixeira before submitting Pat Cummins and was going into that fight after swallowing a swashbuckling flying knee from Johnny Walker.
Ryan Spann (18-6) also recently got tucked in and put to sleep by Walker and it was his first loss in the UFC snapping an eight-fight winning streak. He earnt a unanimous decision over Luis Henrique on his debut and then put his name on the map by knocking out legend Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. He then picked up the pace following that up with a submission over Devin Clark and a split decision over Sam Alvey which led him into the path of the Walker train.
PREDICTION
Looking at their finishing stats you would think this will be a grappler vs grappler clash with 20 submissions out of their combined 33 wins. However, Cirkunov will be the man thriving if the fight goes to the floor so this could come down to whether Spann and land the knockout before Cirkunov lands a takedown.
Spann boasts a slight height and reach advantage and was close to putting Walker away himself so he has the power to test the damaged chin of Cirkunov. The Latvian’s time off is also a big worry but Spann has been taken down six times in the UFC and if he falls into Cirkunov’s domain on the ground, a submission is there for him.
A Spann knockout or a Cirkunov submission are your best bets here
Prediction: Spann via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Cirkunov via Submission
DAN IGE VS GAVIN TUCKER
Dan Ige (14-3) finally got derailed by Calvin Kattar back in July which was his third fight of 2020. He quietly compiled an impressive six-fight win streak including split decisions over Mirsad Bektic and Edson Barboza although we still do not know how two of the judges gave Ige the nod. He then met Kattar and got outclassed on the feet, but he is back to gate keep the top tier.
Gavin Tucker (13-1) is the prospect eyeing up the top 10 rankings and he is riding a three-fight win streak after suffering the first loss of his career. He rose to 10-0 after his debut but then lost a unanimous decision to Rick Glenn. He has only got better since by submitting Seung Woo Choi and Justin Jaynes before coming off his latest win and unanimous decision over Billy Quarantillo back in December.
PREDICTION
At one point Tucker was preparing for Cub Swanson and Ige was preparing for Ryan Hall so they have a very different match-up, but it is still an exciting one.
They are both very well-rounded and with only three rounds to play with, they are going to bring a furious pace for 15 minutes and this should mainly be contested on the feet. Tucker mixed in his takedowns superbly in his fight with Quarantillo and as he is unlikely to knock Ige out, they could be key to stealing the rounds.
However, Ige is solid everywhere. He has a judo base and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu so he will not let Tucker dictate the fight with takedowns, but it is his experience on the feet that should help him earn the decision.
Although Barboza and Kattar got the better of him, they are elite strikers and he made it competitive. His five-inch reach advantage over Tucker should also help him win the exchanges setting the tone with his strong jab.
Prediction: Ige via Decision
JONATHAN MARTINEZ VS DAVEY GRANT
Jonathan Martinez (13-3) is back on track after his razor thin split decision loss to Andre Ewell at bantamweight. He buried Liu Pingyuan with a knee prior to that and summoned that killer instinct in August last year against Frankie Saenz eventually finishing him with another knee in the third round. He missed the 135 lb mark in that fight so moved up to featherweight to take on Thomas Almeida on Fight Island back in October. A good move as he looked great outclassing the Brazilian on the feet to earn a unanimous decision.
Davey Grant (12-4) returns and we hope it is not his sole appearance of the year again. He fought Manny Bermudez in July 2018 after a 21-month lay-off and lost via submission. He returned over a year later with a split decision win over Grigori Popov and then took on Martin Day in July last last year on Fight Island which was his best outing in the UFC so far. It was a three-round scrap and eventually knocked Day out clean to earn the ‘performance of the night’ while fighting with a broken jaw.
PREDICTION
This is a great fight and could easily be a ‘fight of the night’ contender. Martinez is a beast on the feet and Grant is known for his submission prowess but as he proved in his last fight with Day, he is also slick on the feet with knockout power lasting until the third round.
Grant will still be wise to try and get the fight to the floor as Martinez is looking more and more dangerous. He will press forward with a high output looking for a killer blow from his southpaw stance, but he will have to be careful of getting clipped by Grant’s left hook.
If the fight goes to the floor, Grant will be in business but expect the majority of the fight to stay on the feet with Martinez stuffing the takedown attempts threatening the knee up the middle. The longer the fights stays on the feet the more you have to back Martinez with Grant’s durability dragging the fight to a decision.
Prediction: Martinez via Decision
Value Bet: Grant via Submission or Decision
MATHEUS NICOLAU VS MANEL KAPE
Matheus Nicolau (15-2-1) embarks on his second stint in the UFC and is eager to make a statement after getting released after one loss in 2018. That loss came after a six-fight winning streak including his first three UFC fights. He cinched up a beautiful Japanese necktie on Bruno Mequita on his debut and the earnt a split decision over John Moraga and a unanimous decision over Smolka before meeting Dustin Ortiz. He suffered his second loss and knockout of his career and then got released. The future on the flyweight division was very murky at the time and Nicolau collected two more wins before getting called up again – another Japanese necktie over Alan Gabriel (Future Fighting Championships) and Felipe Efrain via unanimous decision (Brave Combat Federation).
Manel Kape (15-5) is fresh off his UFC debut which was only last month. It did not go to plan losing a unanimous decision but he gave a good account of himself against the top contender Alexandre Pantoja. Now Kape hope to regain the momentum in 2019 that got him into the UFC by knocking out Seiichiro Ito, Takeya Mizugaki and Kai Asakura under the Rizin banner.
PREDICTION
Both men are UFC calibre, but they are heading to the APEX with a lot to prove. They are both still young and have a lot of time to make it to the top, but the flyweight division has never been more competitive and the UFC brass have been ruthless making cuts of late.
Stylistically, this is a fantastic match-up. They are both very well-rounded and will throw down at a frenetic pace. They are both electric strikers who can grapple. Kape has the edge on the feet with his knockout power but Nicolau has the edge on the ground with his black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
It is great to see Nicolau back in the UFC but he has not fought for 19 months which is a worry especially as Kape has just gone through the process of fighting at the APEX and going three rounds with a UFC veteran.
Kape is going to be very dangerous in his southpaw stance and if he can check the leg kicks from the Brazilian he can counter with venom. If he can also mix in takedowns, he can steal the rounds but will have to be careful tangling with the black belt.
This will be a very competitive scrap with a mixture of striking and grappling. Nicolau is the value pick as the underdog but we are backing Kape to put on another impressive performance in familiar surroundings to pick up his first UFC win.
Prediction: Kape via Decision
Value Bet: Nicolau via Decision
ERYK ANDERS VS DARREN STEWART
Eryk Anders (13-5) has been one of the most active fighters in the UFC since his debut in 2017 fighting 10 times although his performances have not been as consistent. After his murderous head kick knockout over Tim Williams in 2018, he went on a three-fight skid losing to Thiago Santos (TKO), Elias Theodorou (split decision) and Khalil Rountree (unanimous decision). He bounced back with a classic starching of Vinicius Moreira and then a hard-fought split decision win over Gerald Meerschaert but he only managed to fight once last year which was a unanimous decision loss to Krzysztof Jotko.
Darren Stewart (12-6(1)) has also been inconsistent in the UFC but his only losses in his last eight have been to Edmen Shahbazyan, Bartosz Fabinski and Kevin Holland. Shahbazyan and Holland were split decisions and he just got out wrestled by Fabinski in a fight that ended up being for Cage Warriors in the midst of the initial COVID-19 chaos. In between those losses he has good decisions over Bevon Lewis and Deron Winn as well as his first submission over Maki Pitolo in August last year.
PREDICTION
What a clash to kick of the main card. They both have knockout power and can grapple. Stewart is more technically sound on the feet whereas Anders has his left-hand bomb as an equalizer. Stewart is an underrated grappler, but Anders is a powerful wrestler and he will have taken note of Fabinski’s performance against him.
As long as Stewart can avoid Anders’ left hand and can defend any takedown attempts, he has all the tools to get the win. Anders’ explosiveness will always cause problems, but Stewart has the defence to avoid the incoming bombs and create enough space to rack up strikes of his own.
Expect a mixture of clinch work and grappling here but the majority of this fight should take place on the feet where Stewart is expected to do enough to earn the decision.
Prediction: Stewart via Decision
Value Bet: Anders via Decision
ANGELA HILL VS ASHLEY YODER
This rematch was scheduled to take place two weeks ago at UFC Vegas 20 but has been pushed back to this week due to one of Ashley Yoder’s cornermen testing positive for COVID-19 on the day of the fight.
Angela Hill (12-9) is a lot better than the record suggests. She has been fighting the best strawweights in the world since she started in MMA and has also got unlucky in a few decisions. After three excellent wins knocking out Ariane Carnelossi and Hannah Cifers before earning a unanimous decision over fellow Muay Thai specialist Loma Lookboonmee, she met Claudia Gadelha for a big step up. She looked great against the grappler and somehow lost a split decision and then followed that up with another split decision loss against Michelle Waterson which was a great battle.
Ashley Yoder (8-6) walks out for her eighth UFC fight, but it does not seem she will ever break into the upper echelon of fighters. She lost to Hill on her second UFC appearance via unanimous decision and Mackenzie Dern handed her a third loss in a row with a tight decision which has been a theme of her career. She responded with close decision wins over Amanda Cooper and Syuri Kondo before close decision losses to Randa Markos and Livia Renata Souza and is now coming off a more convincing unanimous decision win over Miranda Granger.
PREDICTION
Yoder landed three takedowns in their fight back in 2017 but Hill out struck her to get the nod from the judges. The game plan will be the same for Yoder and she will look to close any distance and tie Hill up with her grappling, drag her to the ground and work on a submission.
However, since that fight, Hill has looked a lot more impressive and has continued to evolve. Her striking was always better than Yoder and she is even more finely tuned on the feet now as well as her takedown defence which will be key to keeping the fight where she wants it. A finish is very unlikely considering all of Yoder’s fights have gone to a decision.
Prediction: Hill via Decision
CHARLES JOURDAIN VS MARCELO ROJO
It does not feel like Charles Jourdain (10-3-1) has only one UFC to his name as he has put on some quality performances. He got out grappled to a decision by Desmond Green on his debut but then pulled off a big upset mainly because Doo Ho Choi is a huge fan favourite in a thrilling stand-up battle eventually knocking out the Korean slugger. However, he went on to lose a tight split decision against Andre Fili and is coming off a hard-fought draw with Josh Culibao back in October.
Marcelo Rojo (16-6) makes his debut after making an impression on the Combate Americas scene. He has only lost two of his last 10 getting submitted both times. Firstly, Levy Marroquin in 2017 responding with two vintage knockouts before getting submitted again by John Castaneda who just knocked out Eddie Wineland. That was in April 2019 and he bounced back with another brutal knockout but that was in September that year and we have not seen him since.
PREDICTION
This is another ‘fight of the night’ contender on the prelims promising fireworks. Out of their collective 26 wins, they have only gone to a decision once which was Rojo nearly nine years ago. They have submissions in the cabinet, but they get their best work done on the feet.
They match-up very similarly physically with the same 69-inch reach with Jourdain just an inch taller. Rojo is more likely to take the fight to the floor but we fully expect a thrilling stand-up battle. Rojo has more power in his hands but Jourdain is better technically with his kicks and combining his UFC experience, we expect him to get the win. Neither of them have ever been knocked out, so a rare decision is likely but do not count out one of them getting knocked out for the first time.
Prediction: Jourdain via Decision
Value Bet: Rojo via KO/TKO
RANI YAHYA VS RAY RODRIGUEZ
The submission wizard Rani Yahya (26-10-1(1)) returns but has only fought twice since August 2018 when he submitted Luke Sanders. That was his third win and submission in a row, but he went on to lose a unanimous decision to Ricky Simon six months later. It was over a year after that in March last year when he returned fighting to a draw with Enrique Barzola so the veteran is now 11-4-1(1) in the UFC.
Ray Rodriguez (16-7) could be fighting for a UFC future after losing his UFC debut back in September. We first saw him on the Contender Series in August 2019 where he got knocked out by Tony Gravely. He bounced back with a submission win over Andrew Perez for Combate Americas and then snapped up the chance to fight in the UFC after Kevin Natividad dropped out of his fight with Brian Kelleher. However, it was not quite a dream start getting submitted in the first round.
PREDICTION
You just have to look at Yahya’s record to know what his game plan is going to be. He has 20 submissions and zero knockouts and interestingly, half of Rodriguez’s wins have come via submission so it will be interesting to see how he approaches this.
If he has the ego to tangle with the jiu-jitsu world champion it will be a very short night, so he has to try and win the fight on the feet. He has the tools to cause damage, but he has to find a knockout early as Yahya will relentlessly pursue the takedown.
Rodriguez is very tricky on the mat, but Yahya just needs to take him down once to display how many levels above he is and we expect to him to claim his 21st submission one way or another.
Prediction: Yahya via Submission
CORTNEY CASEY VS JJ ALDRICH
Cortney Casey’s (9-8) record took another hit in her last fight losing via submission to Gillian Robertson. This came off a satisfying win for her collecting her third finish in the UFC by submitting Mara Romero Borella a month prior to her loss to Robertson last year. She has talent and even a win over Angela Hill in 2018, but she just has not proven she is good enough to compete with the upper echelon.
JJ Aldrich (8-4) has also struggled to get near the rankings but has a more flattering record of 4-3. She capped off a three-fight win streak in 2018 with a unanimous decision over Polyana Viana but moved up to flyweight and in the path of a surging Maycee Barber who finished her via TKO. She responded with a unanimous decision win over Lauren Mueller but is coming off a split decision loss to Sabina Mazo.
PREDICTION
This should be a very even fight wherever it goes. They are both brown belts in Brazilian jiu-jitsu but if either of them are going to try and take the fight to the floor and look for a submission, it is going to be Casey and this may be her best route to victory.
The majority of the fight however, is likely to place on the feet with both fighters evenly exchanging for three with little threat of a knockout. Aldrich has more technique coming from a taekwondo background which will be the key to winning a point fight on the feet.
Prediction: Aldrich via Decision
JINH YU FREY VS GLORIA DE PAULA
The former atomweight Invicta champion Jinh Yu Frey (9-6) is desperate for her first UFC win after losing her first two bouts. She entered the UFC after beating Ashley Cummins for the Invicta title but was stripped due to missing weight and the misery continued on her debut getting submitted by Kay Hansen in June last year. She then took on Loma Lookboonmee three months later and got out struck in a unanimous decision.
Gloria de Paula (5-2) makes her debut after impressing on the Contender Series. She got the opportunity with only four wins on the regional scene but earnt a unanimous decision over Pauline Macias for a chance in the big time.
PREDICTION
De Paula has an unimpressive record, but she has a lot of potential. She is a very dangerous striker who can grapple and put on a very mature performance against Macias fending off the takedown attempts and against Yu Frey she will most likely need a similar game plan.
Yu Frey is a strong grappler and considering de Paula’s threat on the feet, she is expected to go for the takedown and get the fight to the floor. However, de Paula is strong and offensive in the clinch with knees and is expected to keep the fight on the feet and leverage her size, reach and technical striking advantage to earn a decision at least.
Prediction: De Paula via Decision
MATTHEW SEMELSBERGER VS JASON WITT
Matthew Semelsberger (7-2) is coming off his successful debut against Carlton Minus where he handed him his third loss in in his last four. He earnt the unanimous decision back in August to extend his winning run to four and will need another top performance here to make it five.
Jason Witt (18-6) had an unsuccessful debut back in June, but he had a tough entrance. He accepted a fight with the hard-hitting Takashi Sato on just two days’ notice filling in for Ramiz Brahimaj who tested positive for COVID-19. Witt ended up getting knocked out in the first round but made amends in October wrapping Cole Williams up in an arm triangle.
PREDICTION
We cannot read too much into Witt’s fight with Sato as he had no time to prepare but his fight against Cole Williams was a much more accurate representation of his pedigree. Semelsberger also looked comfortable but Minus is not UFC calibre and we are backing Witt to get the job done.
There should be some exciting exchanges on the feet but ultimately Witt will sway the judges with his grappling and as he is currently the underdog, he is well worth a punt.