UFC Vegas 22 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 22? Saturday 20th March, 2021 - 22:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 22? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 22? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 22 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 22? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
DEREK BRUNSON VS KEVIN HOLLAND
Derek Brunson (21-7) walks out for his 18th UFC fight and looks the best he has looked in a long time. He has compiled some very impressive streaks in the UFC including outpointing Lorenz Larkin and then knocking out Ed Herman, Sam Alvey, Roan Carneiro and Uriah Hall a few years ago. That streak got brutally ended by Robert Whittaker with his trademarked head kick combo and then Anderson Silva made it two losses in a row with a unanimous decision. Brunson then got back to old ways ruthlessly knocking out Dan Kelly and Lyoto Machida. However, his glaring weakness in the UFC has been his consistency going on to lose two more in a row. They were to killers Jacare Souza and Israel Adesanya, but they were weak performances by his standards. However, the veteran is a lot more calculated now and earnt brilliant unanimous decisions over Elias Theodorou and Ian Heinisch and followed that up by schooling the biggest prospect in the middleweight division at the time – Edmen Shahbazyan. Brunson took him down, beat him up and secured a third-round knockout.
Kevin Holland (21-5) is in the form of his life as he seems to keep pushing up his ceiling of potential. He has been the most active fighter in the UFC since his debut in 2018 where he stepped up on short notice to take on Thiago Santos. It was a valiant effort taking the former title challenger to a decision and his only other setback after that was a submission loss to Brendan Allen in 2019. That broke a three-fight streak, and he has already built a five-fight streak since. He knocked out Anthony Hernandez and Joaquin Buckley before scraping past Darren Stewart in a close split decision and then injured Charlie Ontiveros with a slam before his biggest win to date – an incredible knockout of Souza whilst sitting on the floor.
PREDICTION
Holland tied the record of the most wins in a calendar year with five last year overshadowing Brunson’s form, but we cannot forget Brunson’s new cerebral approach. His consistency has prevented him for breaking into the top tier and that is because he cannot help himself by recklessly swinging for a knockout with his chin exposed especially once he starts to get hit.
If any of the old Brunson turns up, Holland will pick him off with ease but if he fights smart, he will give him his hardest fight. Holland has also shown inconsistency falling on the right side of a few split decisions but when he has been on, he has been on.
Brunson can win this fight by being patient with a grappling heavy approach, but he has to stick to a game plan for five rounds. However, when there is a bit of beef, Brunson tends to throw a game plan out the window which will favour Holland and his mouth.
There is also a feel about Holland at the moment where he seems to be putting everything together and finally putting more into his training camps. So, we are backing Holland for another impressive performance, but this is tough to call considering how good they have both looked.
Prediction: Holland via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Brunson via Decision
GREGOR GILLESPIE VS BRAD RIDDELL
Gregor Gillespie (13-1) ghosted on all of us after his last fight. He much prefers taking himself off in his fishing boat to interacting on social media, but he went firmly off the radar after suffering a breath-taking knockout courtesy of Kevin Lee. It was shocking as it was so violent and something Lee has never pulled off before. It also came after Gillespie dominated absolutely everybody that stepped in his path. He was 13-0 before the loss with six UFC fights finishing five of them including a submission over Vinc Pichel and knockouts over Jordan Rinaldi and Yancy Medeiros.
Brad Riddell (9-1) is back after two excellent outings last year. He extended his streak to six and was going into 2020 off the back of a successful UFC debut and unanimous decision over Jamie Mullarkey. He was paired with the dangerous prospect and fellow striker Magomed Mustafaev and threw down in a great battle earning the split decision. Riddell then followed that up with a unanimous decision and another quality performance over Alex da Silva Coelho on Fight Island back in September.
PREDICTION
A striker vs grappler match-up on paper and one hell of a test for both men. Riddell tests himself against an elite grappler and Gillespie tests his nerve and chin against an elite striker.
Riddell is one of the most polished strikers in the division with a strong kickboxing background and he is only getting better training with the likes of Israel Adesanya and Alex Volkanovski. That said, this will depend on how Gillespie turns up mentally.
Before the Lee knockout, people were talking about Gillespie as a future title contender as his skill set was a nightmare for anyone. He is one of the best wrestlers in the division who puts on a crazy pace and once he gets the fight to the ground, he hunts a finish like a savage.
If Gillespie shows any hesitancy after the knockout, Riddell has the technique to pick him apart but if he returns like his old self and is more prepared to avoid the knockout blow, he should get back to his old ways of ragdolling Riddell and suffocating him with his relentless pressure as he unleashes ground-and-pound until a submission opens-up.
Riddell is an exceptional fighter, but we expect the ‘pre Lee’ Gillespie to turn up with a chip on his shoulder desperate to make up for that highlight reel knockout.
Prediction: Gillespie via Submission
CHEYANNE BUYS VS MONTSERRAT RUIZ
Cheyanne Buys (5-1) kicks off the main card making her debut. She has only had six professional fights but has had an extensive amateur career with a 7-7-1 record which is a mixed bag, but you need all the experience you can get before hitting the UFC these days. It is paying off so far with only one loss and now Buys is on a four-fight decision streak coming off a unanimous decision on the Contender Series against Hilarie Rose to earn the call-up.
Montserrat Ruiz (9-1) also makes her UFC debut filling in for Kay Hansen who had to pull out. Ruiz pounces on the opportunity and also only has one loss on the record. That came in 2018 when Danielle Taylor earnt a unanimous decision at Invicta FC 33. To compound the loss, she tore her ACL and did not return until July last year, but she got back to winning ways wrapping Janaisa Morandin up in a brilliant scarf hold keylock.
PREDICTION
Buys is the heavy favourite with Ruiz taking the fight on short notice, but she is a difficult match-up. She is a very tough and gritty fighter with powerful leg kicks and an overhand right, but her biggest strength is her wrestling.
Buys’ equalizer is her athleticism and skills on the ground. She is an aggressive striker and will have the speed advantage over Ruiz. She will also have a height and reach advantage which will make her very dangerous in the clinch and she will look to put her extra size to use with tosses and throws.
Buys has bags of potential and we back her to earn a decision, but Ruiz’ dogged wrestling could cause an upset.
Prediction: Buys via Decision
Value Bet: Ruiz via Decision
ADRIAN YANEZ VS GUSTAVO LOPEZ
One of many exciting bantamweight prospects, Adrian Yanez (12-3) is back after a perfect 2020. He was 10-3 before getting a shot on the Contender Series in August and had a quality audition knocking out Brady Huang in the first round. He then followed that up on his UFC debut two months later with another knockout, pummelling Victor Rodriguez and flattening him with a left high kick to stretch his winning streak to five.
Gustavo Lopez (12-5) is also coming off an efficient finish, submitting Anthony Birchak in the first round back in November. This came after getting dominated on his UFC debut however, he earnt a lot of respect as he stepped up on short notice to take one of the hardest fights in the bantamweight division – Merab Dvalishvili and despite getting ragdolled he took him to a decision.
PREDICTION
Yanez is an electrifying striker, powerful, rapid and confident. His convincing performances recently make him the favourite, but this is a close fight on paper and a very exciting stylistic match-up.
Lopez is also a very aggressive striker with power in all limbs and very dangerous on the ground. If the fight does go to the mat, it will be very interesting to see how Yanez adapts as Lopez should overpower him while looking for submissions.
There is value on Lopez considering the odds, but Yanez has the movement and speed to keep the fight on the feet and at his distance where he can offload various combinations. He will also boast a two-inch reach and three-inch height advantage which will only help his cause in finding a knockout, but this is not an easy fight by any means.
Prediction: Yanez via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Lopez via Decision or Submission
KENAN SONG VS MAX GRIFFIN
After getting his UFC career off to a flyer by knocking out Bobby Nash and Hector Aldana, Kenan Song (16-5) suffered his first UFC loss in that exciting scrap with Alex Morono. It was a unanimous decision in November 2018 and Song has only fought twice since. He returned nearly a year later and won a unanimous decision over Derrick Krantz and last fought over a year ago, but it was his best performance to date, running through Callan Potter for the eighth knockout of his career.
Max Griffin (16-8) is 4-6 in the UFC but has had some tough matchups including Colby Covington, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, Curtis Millender Thiago Alves, Alex Morono and Alex Oliveira who he all took to decisions. He also earnt a decision over Mike Perry in 2018 but wins have been hard to come by in the stacked welterweight division. However, he is coming a great win back in November where he almost elbowed Ramiz Brahimaj’s ear off, literally.
PREDICTION
Song has looked more impressive so far in his UFC career and his knockout power has made a lot of people take notice. However, despite the losses, Griffin has fought much better competition.
Griffin needs to avoid Song’s hands and getting tied up in his clinch where he is very dangerous. If Song, can land clean, Griffin is in trouble but we are backing Griffin’s experience and ultimately his wrestling and reach advantage to take the fight away from Song and earn a decision.
Prediction: Griffin via Decision
TAI TUIVASA VS DON’TALE MAYES
Tai Tuivasa’s (10-3) last outing on Fight Island was huge for the Aussie. After winning his first three UFC fights including a unanimous decision over Andrei Arlovski, he was looking down the barrel after three losses in a row. He got convincingly knocked out by Junior dos Santos and outpointed by Blagoy Ivanov before getting submitted by Sergey Spivak. He then got paired with Stefan Struve while there were rumours that he got released but Tuivasa was working hard on filling the holes in his game with the help of the elite training team at AKA and it paid off with a vintage first round knockout.
Don’Tale Mayes (8-4) also bounced back from the biggest setback of his career in his last fight. After knocking out Ricardo Prasel on the Contender Series he got the dreaded pairing of Ciryl Gane for his debut. He got submitted and then got submitted again in his next fight against Rodrigo Nascimento. However, he picked himself up, dusted himself off and earnt and managed to earn a unanimous decision over Roque Martinez back in November.
PREDICTION
Both men will look at this match-up with confidence. They are improving their all-round game, but they are sluggers at heart and will be happy to stand and trade without worrying about getting out grappled.
That said, this favours Tuivasa a lot more who has been working hard on his grappling and is keen to show it off. He will still no doubt be hunting the knockout but that is more likely to come if he mixes in the odd takedown attempt to lower Mayes’ guard.
A knockout either way can happen here considering their power and if Mayes can leverage his six-inch reach advantage he can land a killer blow, but we are firmly backing Tuivasa who is expected to have evolved further and utilise his speed and leg kicks to set up the knockout.
Prediction: Tuivasa via KO/TKO
MARION RENEAU VS MACY CHIASSON
Third time lucky for these two as Marion Reneau tested positive for COVID-19 prior to UFC Vegas 18 and then an injury to Macy Chiasson forced her out of UFC Vegas 20.
This could be the last time we see Marion Reneau (9-6-1) in the octagon if she loses again. She was coming off two great wins – a TKO over Talita Bernando and a submission over Sara McMann but is now on a three-fight skid with three unanimous decision losses to Cat Zingano, Yana Kunitskaya and Raquel Pennington.
She takes on Macy Chiasson (6-1) who is at the start of her career and will happily snatch the torch off Reneau. She suffered a setback losing a unanimous decision to Lina Lansberg back in September 2019 after submitting Pannie Kianzad and knocking out Gina Mazany and Sarah Moras. However, she is now back on track with a unanimous decision over Shanna Young and can not wait to get back in the cage after minor heart surgery.
PREDICTION
Chiasson is an exciting talent possessing a lot of power, particularly in her hands. She will boast a significant five-inch height and four-inch reach advantage over Reneau and will really make it count on the feet.
Reneau needs to call upon her experience and nullify Chiasson’s threat by getting her on her back and showing off her jiu-jitsu. Chiasson is a monster on the feet but Reneau has never been finished so Chiasson’s conditioning will need to be on point.
Reneau is coming to the end of her career at 43 years old and she is up against a powerhouse in her athletic prime. Chiasson is expected to hold her own in the clinch, defend most of the takedowns and cause enough damage on the feet to seal a decision or even a knockout if the night goes to plan.
Prediction: Chiasson via Decision
LEONARDO SANTOS VS GRANT DAWSON
Mr ‘what could have been’ Leonardo Santos (18-3-1) walks out for his ninth UFC fight. The decorated 4th degree black belt made his name in the jiu-jitsu world and he has carried over his success into MMA but injuries have stifled any sizeable progress and at 41-years-old, you feel there is only so far he can go now. That said, he is still winning all of his fights. Despite a draw in his second UFC appearance against Norman Parke, Santos has run through everybody including a unanimous decision over Rocco Martin and knockouts over Kevin Lee and Stevie Ray. He is coming off another unanimous decision, but he had to work very hard for it with Roman Bogatov helping him out getting a point deducted for a few fouls.
Grant Dawson (16-1) has also struggled to fulfil his enormous potential, but he is still 27 years old and has time on his hands. He has not lost since 2016 and he is riding a seven-fight win streak including four UFC fights. He does not have the accolades as Santos, but he has also made light work of his opponents choking them out at will. He submitted Michael Trizano and fellow submission ace Darrick Minner and is coming off a unanimous decision over Nad Narimani.
PREDICTION
With 20 submissions between them, many would like to see a grappling contest. However, as good as Dawson is, Santos is levels above and it will not be as competitive as people think. Santos also has knockout power in his hands so he will be dangerous wherever the fight goes.
That said, we are backing Dawson to break the Brazilian’s 13-fight win streak. Santos gassed out badly in his last fight with Bogatov and if he tires like that here, Dawson will eat him up.
Dawson is also moving up to lightweight which should make a difference in the grappling and striking exchanges. His extra size and wrestling should help him fend off any takedowns and get through the first two rounds where he will be the fresher man and capitalize to get the win and depending on how tired Santos gets, he could even pick up a shock submission.
Prediction: Dawson via Decision
Value Bet: Dawson via Submission
TREVIN GILES VS ROMAN DOLIDZE
After bouncing back from the first losses of his career, Trevin Giles (13-2) is firing again and eager to get more fights in to keep up the momentum. Those losses were in 2019 and both submissions to Zak Cummings and Gerald Meerschaert. He was then scheduled to fight Antonio Arroya who dropped out the day before the fight with James Krause stepping up with no time prepare and the two put on a show. Giles eventually walked away with a split decision win and is now coming off the sixth knockout of his career putting Bevon Lewis to bed in the third round of their fight back in November.
Giles has suffered another late drop-out but thankfully, Roman Dolidze (8-0) has stepped up to the plate. He replaces Dricus du Plessis who’s visa issues have prevented him from getting to the APEX. The Georgian has clearly been working hard in the gym since his last fight in December as he is able to drop down to middleweight on short notice. Dolidze has fought at 185 lbs before but his first two UFC fights last year were both at 205 lbs where he sent a knee through Khadis Ibragimov’s face and then followed that up with a split decision win over John Allan.
PREDICTION
This is a fascinating match-up and it will be very interesting to see how Dolidze looks at middleweight. He has all of the tools on paper as a very powerful striker and grappler, but he does lack experience. He is 32 with only eight UFC fights under the belt and as he is taking this fight on short notice, his cardio will be a big question mark if this goes past the second round.
Giles has great cardio and knockout power which he has proven to be a threat for the entirety of the fight. So, Dolidze is going to have to come out strong and call upon his natural instincts to finish the fight.
If Dolidze is in good shape we can see an early knockout or submission transferring that power down to middleweight but if he gets off to a slow start, Giles will capitalize and finish stronger. Giles holds the value as the underdog but Dolidze must have taken this fight full of confidence as Giles is a dangerous fighter.
Some Georgian kicks from the southpaw position could easily disable a Giles leg or rock him with a head kick and if Dolidze can hurt him, he can set up a submission but do not count Giles out.
Prediction: Dolidze via Submission
Value Bet: Giles via Decision
MONTEL JACKSON VS JESSE STRADER
Montel Jackson (9-2) arrives for his sixth outing in the UFC. He lost his debut via unanimous decision to Ricky Simon which is not a bad loss at all and although he missed weight, he responded to that with a huge win submitting Brian Kelleher, wrapping him up in a d’arce choke. He went on to earn unanimous decisions over Andre Soukhamthath and Felipe Colares which were not as impressive, but he was gaining momentum however, Brett Johns put a halt to that in July last year failing on the wrong side of a unanimous decision this time.
Now, he welcomes Jesse Strader (5-1) to the octagon. His only loss was to Marcelo Rojo who also just made his UFC debut. He got brutally knocked out but he has shown a lot of character bouncing back with two impressive knockouts of his own over Michael Jackson and Isaiah Batin-Gonzalez for Combate Americas although those fights were in 2019.
PREDICTION
Strader will be shaking off a bit of rust and will be going through all of the COVID-19 protocols for the first time all while dealing with the octagon jitters whereas Jackson got two fights in last year.
Strader will be dangerous with his knockout power but we are backing Jackson who on paper, should outclass him in every area.
Prediction: Jackson via KO/TKO
JP BUYS VS BRUNO GUSTAVO DA SILVA
JP Buys (9-2) makes his debut after a perfect showing on the Contender Series back in November. It was his second attempt on the series after he got knocked out by Joby Sanchez back in 2017. Since then, he racked up four more wins including two knockouts and a submission before his second chance. He got paired with Jacob Silva and submitted him in the first round.
Bruno Gustavo da Silva (10-5-2(1)) arrived in the UFC with a lot of promise but he makes his fourth appearance on the big stage still looking for his first win. He got submitted by Khalid Taha on his debut in 2019 although it was overturned to a ‘no contest’ due to Taha’s failed drugs test. He returned last year and got two fights under his belt dropping down to flyweight. However, he got paired up with a couple of savages and ended up losing unanimous decisions to David Dvorak and Tagir Ulanbekov.
PREDICTION
There is a lot of pressure on both men – Buys who is desperate to impress and prove he is UFC calibre but more so da Silva who will surely get the sack with another loss.
The South African is a very exciting fighter and has never gone to a decision in his career. He will boast a slight height and reach advantage and will go into this fight as the favourite. He is well-rounded and is particularly dangerous in the scrambles and will pounce on any opportunity to jump on a back and look for a submission.
Despite the recent losses, da Silva is also very dangerous. He took on two very good fighters pushing them to decisions. This is bound to be a close fight and da Silva holds all the value as the underdog, but we are backing Buys for a successful debut putting his size and weight advantage to good use but will need a flawless performance to get the finish.