UFC Vegas 18 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 18? Saturday 6th January, 2021 – 23:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 18? UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 18? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 18 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 18? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ALISTAIR OVEREEM VS ALEXANDER VOLKOV
Alistair Overeem (47-18-1) is really lacking experience walking out for his 67th MMA fight. He has been there and done it all at the ripe old age of 40 but UFC gold has been the one title that has eluded him, and he still hopes he can make one more charge at the belt. He has continued to churn out calculated wins since his lost to Stipe Miocic back in 2016 but has run into immovable roadblocks in the shapes of Francis Ngannou, Curtis Blaydes and Jairzinho Rozenstruik who inflicted the 14th knockout loss of Overeem’s career and that is not including his kickboxing bouts. However, he keeps dusting himself off and finding knockouts of his own adding Walt Harris and Augusto Sakai to his illustrious victim sheet last year.
Alexander Volkov (32-8) is only 32 and knows he has a few runs at the title in him and a win over Overeem will catapult him straight into contention. After earning the biggest win of his career in knocking out former champion Fabricio Werdum, he made one mistake with seconds to go in his fight with Derrick Lewis waking up to a flashlight. He replied with an expected win over Greg Hardy but got wrestled for five rounds by Curtis Blaydes. However, like his counterpart, Volkov secured a second-round finish over Walt Harris and now hopes to make it two on the trot.
PREDICTION
Two of the most technical strikers in the division lock horns and we should see a very patient and deliberate approach from both men. They will likely spend a couple rounds getting a read on each other assessing their range.
They have the same 80-inch reach but Volkov has three inches in leg reach and height and we are likely to see those leg kicks and long kicks up the middle to hurt Overeem from range. Overeem has taken a lot of damage in his career, but he still has good defence, and he is the more cerebral fighter. He may use his experience to close the distance my clinching up and taking a leaf out of Blaydes’ book by taking him down.
Volkov has the youth and athleticism to keep the distance and chop Overeem down from range and if he can find the weathered chin, he can easily get the knockout. If Overeem can turn this into a grappling contest, he can slice Volkov up in the clinch with knees and elbows and will even be a submission threat on the ground, but Overeem is no Blaydes and he will struggle to keep a hold of Volkov.
Nonetheless the stand-up battle will be a very even contest and the exchanges will be great viewing. It is often a mistake to count Overeem out but Volkov is in his prime right now and he can find that chin enough times to find the knockout but Overeem’s cerebral approach should stretch this out to a decision.
Prediction: Volkov via Decision
CORY SANDHAGEN VS FRANKIE EDGAR
Cory Sandhagen (13-2) is back on track after getting derailed by Aljamain Sterling in June. He was quietly trucking along towards a title shot with the momentum of a seven-fight win streak and winning all five of his UFC fights including decisions over John Lineker and Raphael Assuncao. However, Sterling cemented his number one contender status with an immaculate performance and submission. Sandhagen then met former title challenger Marlon Moraes and jumped straight back in line with the most impressive win and knockout of his career, spinning wheel kicking the Brazilian out of the title picture.
Frankie Edgar (24-8-1) and Sandhagen were originally scheduled to fight a year ago at UFC Fight Night 166 but the UFC robbed Sandhagen by moving Edgar back up to featherweight to fight Chan Sung Jung after Brian Ortega dropped out. Edgar went on to get iced in the first round making it two losses on the bounce, but the veteran proved he still has it after edging out Pedro Munhoz in a split decision back in August.
PREDICTION
Edgar is not quite the fighter he was but the fact he is still fighting top contenders is crazy. Add in the fact the former lightweight champion is moving down another division at the age of 39.
Although it was close, moving down and responding to a knockout loss by beating Munhoz was a huge statement but Sandhagen is a different beast. Expect Edgar to bring the same strategy to the table and rely on his gas tank, look to throw more volume and set up takedowns with strikes and level changes.
This is usually enough but Sandhagen has been preparing for Edgar for a while. He will boast a five-inch height and two-inch height advantage which will help him sprawl out of the takedown attempts and control the distance on the feet.
Don’t count Edgar out but we expect Sandhagen to pick up another huge win and considering his improvements and current miles on Edgar’s clock, he could even pull off another monumental knockout.
Prediction: Sandhagen via Decision
ALEXANDRE PANTOJA VS MANEL KAPE
Alexandre Pantoja (22-5) wants to climb his way up towards a title shot and would like nothing more than to avenge his loss to Deiveson Figueiredo for it. Pantoja strung three great wins over Brandon Moreno, Ulka Sasaki and Wilson Reis before losing a unanimous decision to the current champ in what was the ‘fight of the night’ at UFC 240. He responded with a brilliant knockout over Matt Schnell but an Askar Askarov shaped bump in the road appeared with the Russian earning a unanimous decision.
Manuel Kape (15-4) makes his UFC debut adding to the flyweight division that has really grown in talent and excitement in the last couple years. Kape has made a name for himself over in Rizin but he did not get to fight last year. His last loss came to one of Pantoja’s scalps, Sasaki in 2018 but Kape has gone on a tear since knocking out Seiichiro Ito, Takeya Mizugaki and Kai Asakura to claim the vacant bantamweight title.
PREDICTION
The Askarov loss was a big setback for Pantoja but Askarov is the dark horse in the division and will surely be a future title contender. Kape is a good fighter and there is no doubting his knockout ability, but this is a huge step-up in competition.
The odds are stacked against Kape making his UFC debut after not fighting for over a year, but he has a great chance in causing the upset. He has decent ground skills and is lethal on the feet, so this is a close match-up on paper.
Pantoja’s experience will be important here, we know he has excellent technique on the feet and he is comfortable in a brawl as we saw in the Schnell fight but he has to respect Kape’s power and speed. His diverse attacks will cause problems, but Pantoja has the tools and nous to secure a decision at least.
Prediction: Pantoja via Decision
CODY STAMANN VS ASKAR ASKAR
Cody Stamann (19-3-1) had a tumultuous year to say the least. He entered 2020 coming off a draw with Song Yadong but his brother passed away in May. However, he still managed to enter the cage and even pulled off an incredible unanimous decision over Brian Kelleher in June. He wanted to keep up the momentum and fought a month later but clashed with an in-form Jimmie Rivera who earnt the unanimous decision.
Andre Ewell got hit by the COVID-19 hammer removing him just five days out but fortunately Askar Askar (11-1) steps up and makes his debut. He has fought for a variety of promotions and suffered his first loss a year ago. He got knocked out by Saidyokub Kakhramonov for Hoosier Fight Club but returned in October for the Legacy Fighting Alliance, hopping straight back in the win column with a unanimous decision over Kevin Wirth.
PREDICTION
Inevitably Askar is the heavy underdog but he has nothing lose, stepping up on short notice in a fight he is not expected to win. In which case, he has to let his hands go and keep moving hoping to catch Stamann before he lands the takedown.
As usual, Stamann will be giving up some reach – 64.5 inches to Askar’s 69.5 but that will count for nothing if Stamann lands the takedown. His wrestling is a level above Askar’s previous opponents and as long as Stamann does not get cocky and decides to trade, he will be able to land takedown after takedown, keeping Askar pinned on his back. Submission opportunities will be there but we just have not seen that side of Stamann’s game in the UFC, so a decision is more likely.
Prediction: Stamann via Decision
CARLOS DIEGO FERREIRA VS BENEIL DARIUSH
Carlos Diego Ferreira (17-2) came up short in a unanimous decision in their first meeting, but it was all the way back in October 2014. He got knocked out in his next fight against Dustin Poirier, but he has blossomed into an elite fighter. He has gone on to win every fight since racking up knockouts over Jared Gordon and Kyle Nelson before displaying his grappling prowess against Rustam Khabilov and Mairbek Taisumov. He is now coming off his biggest win to date in submitting former champion Anthony Pettis.
After winning that unanimous decision, Beneil Dariush (19-4-1) has gone 10-3-1 since and his recent run has got people lining him up for a title shot in the near future. After getting knocked out by Alexander Hernandez, Dariush has gone on a tear earning a unanimous decision over Thiago Moises, submitting Drew Dober and Frank Camacho and then knocking out Drakkar Klose and Scott Holtzman in spectacular fashion to make it five in a row.
PREDICTION
What a fight to kick off the main card as it could easily be a headliner. They are both experienced killers with incredible skill sets. They match up similarly physically and they are both elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu competitors.
Their skills on the mat will cancel each other out which will create a stand-up battle and that is where Dariush has looked exceptional of late. His knockout power and creativity in his last fights have added another lethal string to his bow and he will have the confidence of unleashing it on Ferreira.
However, we cannot forget Ferreira’s knockout power especially as Dariush’s chin has been found a lot in his career. Ferreira tends to throw wild shots but his Robert Whittaker style combination ending with a head kick could cause Dariush some serious problems. This is going to be an intense battle on the feet and whoever has the sharper defence should come out on top.
A violent three rounds or a knockout could fall either way but Ferreira’s performance against the top tier striker Taisumov proved that he can trade with the best which should give him the confidence to edge a decision.
Prediction: Ferreira via Decision
MICHAEL JOHNSON VS CLAY GUIDA
Michael Johnson (19-16) steps out for his 24th UFC fight and like many veterans, he has found wins hard to come by of late. He is 3-8 in his last 11 but in amongst those losses he does have that stand-out knockout over Dustin Poirer in 2016. A lot has changed since then, and Johnson’s last wins came in 2018 earning a split decision over Andre Fili and a unanimous decision over Artem Lobov. He is on a three-fight skid now but has not looked bad. He was beating Josh Emmett until getting starched in the third round, lost a very close decision to Stevie Ray and dominated Thiago Moises for a round until the Brazilian went full blown jiu-jitsu at the start of the second, jumping on an achilles lock.
Clay Guida (35-20) makes his 30th appearance in the octagon and although he has been given more favourable matchups with fellow UFC veterans, he has proven how hard consistent wins are to achieve at the end of a career. He knocked out Joe Lauzon in 2017 but became one of many of Charles Oliveira’s submission victims. He bagged a unanimous decision over the struggling BJ Penn in 2019 but is now coming off two losses – a submission to Jim Miller and a unanimous decision over Bobby Green which came back in June last year.
PREDICTION
These matchups are so much more appealing than feeding veterans to young prospects. They have nothing to prove but there is still a lot of pride at stake.
Guida will bring relentless cardio, wrestling and durability and Johnson will show off his supreme striking, with lightening fast combinations complimented by his movement. They are both more comfortable at lightweight as opposed to featherweight which will aid Guida’s wrestling and Johnson’s punching power.
The key factor will be Johnson’s takedown defence which is 79%. Guida will shoot in for the takedown over and over again and if he succeeds, he can control Johnson, keeping him on his back. However, we back Johnson to stuff the majority of his attempts to allow him to do all the damage on the feet.
Johnson’s boxing and speed is way too much for Guida. Guida is very tough so It will be surprising if Johnson can find a knockout, but we expect him to keep the fight on the feet long enough to break Guida down from range and earn a decision.
Prediction: Johnson via Decision
MIKE RODRIGUEZ VS DANILO MARQUES
Mike Rodriguez (11-5(1)) returns after that controversial loss to Ed Herman back in September. He was eating the veteran up on the feet and floored him with two piercing knees to the gut. Instead of calling the fight, the referee stopped it, thinking Herman received a low blow. Despite replays clearly showing the knees were legal, Herman was allowed to recover and somehow survived another battering before cinching up a kimura on the ground. Gutting for Rodriguez, denied making it two knockouts in a row after finishing Marcin Prachnio.
Danilo Marques (10-2) returns after sending Khadis Ibragimov out of the UFC on his debut. Marques had not fought for two and a half years after picking up two wins for the Gladiator Combat Fight promotion when he got the call-up. However, he showed no signs of rust earning a unanimous decision over Ibragimov inflicting his fourth loss in a row.
PREDICTION
It was a good win for Marques back in September, but he is still unproven. Ibragimov just did not show and up prior to that, Marques has not fought anyone of note and has been very inactive. He has good jiu-jitsu and can strike, but it will not be enough against Rodriguez’ prowess on the feet.
Rodriguez is ferocious at close range and in the clinch with short elbows and knees. He has knockout power he is expected to walk Marques down to get in that range where he can knock him out. Marques is no spring chicken and Rodriguez has a fire in his belly after that loss and he will be hunting the 10th knockout of his career again.
Prediction: Rodriguez via KO/TKO
MARTIN DAY VS TIMUR VALIEV
Martin Day (8-5) steps in for Julio Arce clearly desperate to prevent a four-fight skid. He made his UFC debut off the back off three impressive wins back in November 2018, but he came up short in a split decision with Pingyuan Liu and he did not return to the cage for 21 months. It was UFC 251 on Fight Island and he fought well but got caught with a clinical left hook from Davey Grant in the third round. He returned a few months later only to be caught in Anderson dos Santos’ guillotine.
Timur Valiev (16-2(1)) welcomes Day as the replacement and hopes to pile on more misery on his second UFC appearance. The sambo specialist entered the UFC riding a six-fight win streak carrying a lot of hype, and was chewing Trevin Jones up, dominating the fight on the feet but got caught with a big right hand to spark the upset. However, his record was spared the loss as Jones tested positive overturning the loss to a ‘no contest’.
PREDICTION
Day is better than his form and record suggests but this is a very tough match-up for him. Day is a striker by trade with weaknesses in his ground game and Valiev is a grappling beast. The Dagestani has the ability to throw Day around, unleash ground-and-pound and set up a submission but he will try and get the job done on the feet where he is also a beast.
He will chop Day down with punishing leg kicks and kicks up the middle to find the chin. Expect some exciting exchanges but Valiev to come out on top with damaging combinations with the confidence of knowing he can take the fight to the ground whenever he wants.
Prediction: Valiev via KO/TKO
DEVONTE SMITH VS JUSTIN JAYNES
Devonte Smith (10-2) was expected to fight Alex da Silva Coelho, but he is one of the never-ending drop-puts. Fortunately, Smith still has a fight and a chance to finally bounce back from his brutal knockout loss back in August 2019. He was riding a phenomenal six-fight win streak at the time including a submission and five knockouts on the bounce. He finished Joseph Lowry on the Contender Series and sparked Julian Erosa and Dong Hyun Ma in his first two UFC fights. but Khama Worthy gave him a taste of his own medicine.
Justin Jaynes (16-6) steps in for Coelho and is also coming off a knockout loss. He met a rabid Gabriel Benitez who beat him up on the feet before finishing him with a ferocious knee to the body. That made it two losses in a row after getting submitted by Gavin Tucker, so he badly needs his second UFC win and steps up on short notice in search for it.
PREDICTION
Smith has been out for a while with an achilles injury which is a worry considering his punching power begins at the feet. As long as he is fully healed, he will be favoured to get the win, but he will have to shake off any cobwebs against Jaynes.
Jaynes deserves a lot of credit for taking this fight. He is coming off two finishes and is up against a knockout artist with a considerable nine-and-a-half-inch reach advantage. Jaynes needs to display his wrestling as Smith will leverage that reach to hurt Jaynes from range. He may not be as dominant as Benitez, but we still expect him to find the knockout.
Prediction: Smith via KO/TKO
KAROL ROSA VS JOSELYNE EDWARDS
Karol Rosa (13-3) was preparing for a bout with the tainted Nicco Montano and unsurprisingly, Montano has been dealt another bad hand and not able to show up for UFC Fight Night 184. Fortunately for her, a willing opponent has stepped up and fortunate for us as she looks a promising talent riding a four-fight win streak winning her first wo UFC fights against Lara Procopio (split decision) and Vanessa Melo (unanimous decision).
Joselyne Edwards (10-2) steps up fresh off her successful UFC debut three weeks ago. She’s beginning to make a habit of taking fights on short notice as she filled in for Bethe Correia who had to pull out of her fight with Yanan Wu due to appendicitis. Edwards seized on the opportunity and capitalised with an exceptional performance handing Wu her third decision loss in four fights.
PREDICTION
We knew Edwards was a dangerous striker, but she was completely unproven against UFC calibre opponents. Wu is on a slide, but she is a level above Edwards past opponents and the Panama native truly rose to the occasion.
Rosa will be a much tougher test. She is technically solid with dangerous kicks. She is expected to immediately throw leg kicks to slow Edwards down and follow them up with looping hooks.
Rosa is the heavy favourite, but Edwards has a speed advantage and the power to seriously threaten Rosa. If she can check those kicks and counter with her hands, she can certainly swing the bout in her favour.
On paper, this seems a step-up too soon for Edwards but there is a lot of value on her especially if the fight stays on the feet.
Prediction: Rosa via Decision
MOLLY MCCANN VS LARA PROCOPIO
Molly McCann (10-3) heads to the APEX avenging a loss for the second time in her UFC career. She bounced back from the hugely anti climatical debut in Liverpool and submission loss to Gillian Robertson with three unanimous decisions over Priscila Cachoeira, Ariane Lipski and Diana Belbita but came up against Taila Santos back in July. The Brazilian announced herself as a future contender with a dominant performance taking McCann down five times to earn the unanimous decision.
Lara Procopio (6-1) is also coming off a loss. After winning her first six fights over the course of three years with one knockout, two submissions and three decisions, she earnt a UFC bout with fellow newcomer Karol Rosa. It was a very close fight with Rosa nicking the split decision but more worryingly for Procopio, that fight was in August 2019 and we have not seen her since.
PREDICTION
McCann is the favourite but Procopio is a tough fighter and will give McCann a very hard fight. She does not possess much knockout power, but she is dangerous on the feet and will have a significant five-inch reach advantage.
If McCann is sharp and her defence is tight, she should have enough sway the judges. Although, a lot of them have been on the ground, she eats a lot of shots (4.7 per minute) and cannot afford to eat many from Procopio.
That said, if her movement is on point and she can mix in her strikes with takedowns she can snatch a decision, but this promises to be a close contest.
Prediction: McCann via Decision
SEUNG WOO CHOI VS YOUSEFF ZALAL
Seung Woo Choi (8-3) is just grateful he has a fight after having two dropouts. He was originally scheduled to fight Steven Peterson and then Collin Anglin, but the newcomer withdrew only a couple weeks ago. The South Korean is eager to get his UFC career off the ground after a challenging start. He was threw into the fire facing Movsar Evloev on his debut losing a decision and then got handed Gavin Tucker getting submitted in the second round. He bounced back with a decision over Suman Mokhtarian and now heads to Las Vegas for the first time in search of another win.
Youseff Zalal (10-3) is the man to step up and the pair were actually scheduled to fight back at UFC Fight Night 179. Choi dropped out that time which left the door open for Ilia Topuria to hand Zalal his first loss in five fights. Zalal had a lot of momentum at the time with three impressive unanimous decisions in his first three UFC fights and is now back at the APEX to put that unanimous decision loss behind him.
PREDICTION
It is good to see these guys cross paths again as this is a great match-up. Topuria exposed some holes in Zalal’s takedown defence but fortunately for him, Choi prefers to strike which should make this a thrilling battle on the feet.
Zalal is the heavy favourite but Choi is more than capable of pulling off an upset. He is a seasoned Muay Thai fighter with obvious knockout power. He is also the bigger stronger man and will have a slight height and reach advantage.
Choi is more likely to get a finish with his power, but the exchanges will be a very even contest and it could come down to who can mix up their strikes with the odd takedown. This promises to be a very exciting and competitive scrap and all the value is with Choi but Zalal is expected to edge a tight decision.
Prediction: Zalal via Decision
ODE OSBOURNE VS DENYS BONDAR
Ode Osbourne (8-3(1)) is back after a year gunning for his first UFC win. After finishing three fights in a row, Osbourne got his shot on the Contender Series and brilliantly notched the fourth submission of his career catching Armando Villarreal in an armbar. However, he got a taste of his own medicine in his debut when Brian Kelleher wasted little time in wrapping him up in a rear naked choke.
Now, it is Osbourne’s turn to welcome a newcomer to the octagon as Denys Bondar (14-2) makes his entrance to the big time. He arrives as the World Warriors Fighting Championships flyweight champion and is a very exciting prospect from the Ukraine. He has finished all of his wins (five knockouts and nine submissions) with his last loss coming five years ago to Zhifa Shang and has since stacked eight very impressive wins together for a variety of promotions not including some national amateur fights.
PREDICTION
Bondar is yet another talented prospect to add to the growing flyweight division but his debut will be at a catchweight of 130 lbs. Osbourne is a more natural bantamweight and will be the slightly bigger man, but this is a tough fight for him.
This will be a very exciting clash especially as only two of their combined 28 professional fights have gone to a decision. We are firmly backing Bondar here. He looks the real deal and is an absolute weapon on the feet and on the ground. He should cause a lot of damage on the feet with a variety of attacks, but the difference will come in the grappling where he can take Osbourne down aggressively and get to work with ground-and-pound while looking for a submission.
Osbourne is a good fighter, but Bondar has too much experience, too much power and too many weapons to fall short on his debut.