UFC 258 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC 258? Sunday 14th February, 2021 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 258? UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 258? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC 258 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 258? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
KAMARU USMAN VS GILBERT BURNS
Kamaru Usman (17-1) makes the third defence of his title after wrestling the ‘BMF’ Jorge Masvidal for five rounds back in July on Fight Island. So, Usman should also be the new ‘BMF’ champion, but that belt means absolutely nothing, so he is just the undisputed welterweight champion for now and he has the makings of being up there with Georges St Pierre as the most dominant welterweight of all time. He is not the most exciting fighter, but his wrestling and mentality put him at the top of the food chain with a record that keeps getting better and he hopes to add to his victim sheet that already includes the likes of Demian Maia, Tyron Woodley and Colby Covington.
Gilbert Burns (19-3) is the next monster in line and on paper, he provides Usman’s toughest match-up right now. Since moving back up to welterweight in 2019, he has gone on a tear and has never looked better. He handed Alexey Kunchenko his first ever loss snapping his 20-fight win streak, he went on to out grapple Gunnar Nelson in another unanimous decision, he knocked out fellow Brazilian jiu-jitsu wizard Maia and is coming off a domination of the former champion Woodley to pick up his second ‘performance of the night’ in a row.
PREDICTION
What makes this match-up so interesting is the fact that Burns is ferocious on the feet but also a grappling behemoth. He will not be able to out wrestle Usman, but if the fight goes to the ground, the champion will have to tangle with one of the best jiu-jitsu practitioners in the UFC.
They are also teammates and will have sparred a lot of rounds with each other – in the ring, on the fence and on the ground. They will know each other’s game inside out. They will believe they have each other’s number, but the key factor will still be what answers will Burns have for Usman’s wrestling.
Usman is not submitting Burns and he has a lot of confidence in his striking, but he is not a finisher and it will be a risk to trade with Burns who is simply a better striker. So, we expect Usman to wrestle and clinch up against the fence for as long as possible to grind Burns down and wear him out until he offers little threat in the championship rounds.
Burns is a strong wrestler himself with offence as well as defence as he ‘Usman’d’ Nelson who is also a top tier grappler. His jiu-jitsu is on another level, and it will be fascinating to see if Usman’s wrestling is enough to keep Burns on his back if the fight goes to the ground. Burns’ route to victory is firing in his leg kicks and setting up a knockout blow before Usman shoots in or exploding out of the clinch with elbows.
If Usman has the ego to stand with Burns and just rely on his straight-right hand, Burns can find a knockout. However, with the ease Usman stifled Masvidal’s stand-up threat, you have to back Usman for another grinding decision with a lot of clinch work, but Burns will push the favourite all the way.
Prediction: Usman via Decision
Value Bet: Burns via KO/TKO / Decision
MAYCEE BARBER VS ALEXA GRASSO
Maycee Barber (8-1) was touted as a future title contender after just a couple UFC fights and was living up to the hype until Roxanne Modafferi schooled her at UFC 246. A unanimous decision loss to Modafferi will do nothing for her title aspirations and she has been out for a year since with a knee injury which hampered her in the fight. However, she can learn from the loss and build back up carrying the momentum from the three savage TKO’s over Hannah Cifers, JJ Aldrich and Gilian Robertson.
If she can get past Alexa Grasso (12-3) then the hype train will leave the station again as Grasso has the makings of a future title contender as well, improving with every fight. She has fought the two best wrestlers in the strawweight division already in Tatiana Suarez and Carla Esparza and looked good against Esparza. She also has good decision wins over Randa Markos, Karolina Kowalkiewicz and recently marked her flyweight debut with another unanimous decision win over Ji Yeon Kim.
PREDICTION
We expect both fighters to look great fighting in their more natural class of flyweight. Barber has had a lot of time to reflect on her first loss and she has also started training at the Valle Flow Striking Academy which is a great move for her training with established UFC fighters including Julianna Pena. So, we expect Barber to be back to her best but that may not necessarily be enough against Grasso.
Barber is an explosive striker, and she will try and hurt Grasso on the feet early and hope to land in top control to unleash her ground-and-pound. However, Grasso’s stand-up is getting more dangerous and she has smoother technique. She has great movement popping in and out of range and we back her to get the better of Barber in the exchanges.
Grasso also has decent jiu-jitsu although she will be in trouble if she ends up on her back. If Barber starts to eat too many shots, she should look for a takedown and she has the power to pin her down raining down punches.
Grasso is the favourite, and we back her to earn a decision although we have a feeling Barber could come out the gate like a bull and cause an upset.
Prediction: Grasso via Decision
Value Bet: Barber via KO/TKO
KELVIN GASTELUM VS IAN HEINISCH
Kelvin Gastelum (15-6(1)) has fought monster after monster for seven years and was on the cusp of middleweight gold in his interim title fight with Israel Adesanya back in 2019 but fell short in one of the best middleweight fights of all time. He lost a unanimous decision in the end inflicting the most damage Adesanya has received in the UFC, but fights have not got much easier going on to lose a split decision to Darren Till and tapping out to Jack Hermansson to make it three losses in a row. Gastelum is now 11-6 in the UFC which is which is exceptional considering the calibre of opponents.
Ian Heinisch (14-3) has a chance to pile on more suffering for Gastelum in the biggest fight of his carer so far. He won his first three UFC fights but struggled in the step-up in competition losing unanimous decisions to Derek Brunson and Omari Akhmedov. However, he bounced back spectacularly in June with a first-round knockout over Gerald Meerschaert.
PREDICTION
Gastelum may be grateful for not being matched-up with another top tier killer but if he takes Heinisch lightly, he will suffer the biggest setback of his career. Both fighters are strong wrestlers but expect the majority of this fight to take place on the feet.
As usual, Gastelum will give up height and size but he will relish the fact Heinisch will only have a slight one-inch reach advantage. He usually gives up a lot more and still has the speed and technique to land flush, just ask Adesanya who got rocked early with a nine-inch advantage.
Heinisch will need something special or hope for a critical error as Gastelum’s boxing and experience should be too much and his lightening fast 1-2 may just seal his Heinisch’s fate.
Prediction: Gastelum via KO/TKO
RICKY SIMON VS BRIAN KELLEHER
COVID-19 has struck this scheduling down twice already. Ricky Simon’s (17-3) cornerman tested positive before UFC Fight Night 176 but managed to get a fight in second time around. Gaetano Pirrello stepped up for his debut and it was a complete mismatch, but Simon was just thankful to get in the cage and rack up a submission and second win in a row after outpointing Ray Borg back in May.
Brian Kelleher (22-11) eventually got a replacement when Simon pulled out. Kevin Natividad stepped up only to drop out soon after which gave Ray Rodriguez the opportunity to make his debut. Like Simon, Kelleher also wrapped up a submission, bouncing back from a decision loss to Cody Stamann and after he tested positive himself prior to UFC on ABC 1, they have their third date and we are all hoping they make it to the octagon.
PREDICTION
Both guys are used to fighting at bantamweight, but this will be up at 145 lbs which will suit Simon more. He has a three-inch reach advantage, and he will be even more powerful up at featherweight which will make his wrestling more dangerous.
He is an exceptional wrestler, and it will be the smart play considering Kelleher’s punching power. Kelleher is very well-rounded, and he will offer a submission threat on the ground, but Simon’s wrestling should be enough to seal two rounds at least although this is bound to be a very close and competitive scrap.
Prediction: Simon via Decision
MAKI PITOLO VS JULIAN MARQUEZ
Maki Pitolo (13-7) fought three times last year, but he had a tough ride. He started 2020 perfectly with a knockout over Charles Byrd but he then got submitted by Darren Stewart in August and then made a quick turnaround three weeks later and lost a unanimous decision to Impa Kasanganay.
It has been way too long since we last saw Julian Marquez (7-2). July 2018 was his last fight and unfortunately for him, it was a split decision loss to Alessio Di Chirico. He strung together five good wins prior including a devastating knockout on the Contender Series over Phil Hawes who has looked great recently and submission over Stewart on his UFC debut.
PREDICTION
On paper, you have to back Marquez who has more tools to get the job done and he will be the stronger man. He has four inches in height over Pitolo but gives up three inches in reach which will be important.
Marquez is the favourite but considering how long he has been out, all the value is with Pitolo. Marquez could come out and not look like he has been away but Pitolo has the explosiveness to capitalise on any rust.
Prediction: Marquez via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Pitolo via KO/TKO / Decision
RODOLFO VIEIRA VS ANTHONY HERNANDEZ
We need to see more of the Brazilian jiu jitsu wizard Rodolfo Vieira (7-0) and the pandemic has not helped but thankfully he is on his way to the APEX for his third UFC fight. The jiu-jitsu world champion racked up his first five wins with a knockout breaking up four submissions. He was then tested with Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Oscar Piechota on his UFC debut and proved there are levels, submitting him in the second round. Vieira then took on Saparbek Safarov back in March and wasted less time, sealing the Russian in an arm-triangle for his sixth submission in MMA.
Anthony Hernandez (7-2(1)) is back and ready for Vieira after a positive COVID-19 test postponed the bout four weeks ago at UFC on ABC 1. Hernandez was also unbeaten heading into the UFC but got submitted on his debut by Markus Perez. He responded by submitting Jun Yong Park but ran into Kevin Holland in his last fight back in May getting ruthlessly knocked out in the first round.
PREDICTION
Hernandez is now 1-2 in the UFC but has all the tools to build a streak. However, this is a tough match-up. Most of Hernandez wins have come via submission so he is going to have a different game plan for Vieira and that has to be finding an early knockout if he can’t keep the fight on the feet.
Vieira will hunt the takedown and once the fight goes to the floor, it is game over. Hernandez needs to keep moving and circling and hope to catch Vieira as he shoots in. He has a chance, but everything points to another Vieira submission.
Prediction: Vieira via Submission
Value Bet: Hernandez via KO/TKO
BELAL MUHAMMAD VS DHIEGO LIMA
After getting knocked out by Vicente Luque all the way back in 2016, Belal Muhammad (17-3) was steadily creeping up the welterweight ranks with four wins but ran into a Geoff Neal-shaped speed bump losing a unanimous decision two years ago. Now, he is back on the march with three quality wins over Curtis Millender (unanimous decision), Takashi Sato (submission) and Lyman Good (unanimous decision) last year.
Dhiego Lima (15-7) heads to the APEX for his first outing since October 2019 hoping to be another stumbling block for Muhammad. He is five fights into his second stint in the UFC and was fortunate to stay on the roster after losing his first two comeback fights to Jesse Taylor (submission) and Yushin Okami (unanimous decision). However, he showed his class by folding Chad Laprise with a beautiful lead left hook and then going on to earn split decisions over Court McGee and Luke Jumeau.
PREDICTION
Lima has a quality skill set with bags of experience, but he just has not made any dent in the upper level of the UFC whereas despite his debut loss to Alan Jouban, Muhammad has only lost to top contenders with ferocious knockout power.
Lima is not on Luque and Neal’s level and Muhammad is a justified heavy favourite. Lima also has a damaged chin waiting to be hit but Muhammad has not knocked anyone out since 2016 so we expect him to grapple his way to a decision.
Prediction: Muhammad via Decision
POLYANA VIANA VS MALLORY MARTIN
Polyana Viana (11-4) fought once last year and it came with great relief as she prevented a four-fight skid. After submitting Maia Stevenson on her debut, she lost decisions to JJ Aldrich and Hannah Cifers before getting submitted in an armbar by Veronica Macedo. However, she saved her UFC career with an exceptional armbar of her own, beating Emily Whitmire in the first round.
Mallory Martin (7-3) is also coming off a bounce-back submission win which was also on the UFC Fight Night 175 card back in August. Martin suffered the fate of many – getting submitted by Virna Jandiroba which was not the UFC debut she wanted but she responded with a rear-naked choke win over Hannah Cifers.
PREDICTION
These ladies match up very similarly. They both have decent striking with brown belts in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Viana is slightly bigger with a four-inch reach advantage and she is one of few strawweights that can finish fights regularly. In fact, all her wins have been finishes (four knockouts and seven submissions).
Martin is a scrapper and has only been submitted by an elite practitioner and it is hard to see her getting submitted here unless she gets rocked. We expect a lot of wrestling and clinch work here but Viana will back herself to find Mallory’s dome piece whenever there is space.
However, considering the improvements we saw in Martin’s last fight and how well she can close the distance, we expect this to be a scrap until the bell. It can go either way, but we give Martin the slight edge.
Prediction: Martin via Decision
ANDRE EWELL VS CHRIS GUTIERREZ
Yet another positive COVID-19 result forced Andre Ewell (17-6) out of his bout with Cody Stamann last week at UFC Vegas 18 but fortunately he proceeded to test negative and has landed another booking on this UFC 258 card. Stamann can’t catch a break after Merab Dvalishvili originally pulled out, then Ewell and then had the third replacement Askar Askar drop out last minute. Now, he he has to watch Ewell fight a week later who is coming off two split decision wins over Jonathan Martinez and Irwin Rivera.
Chris Gutierrez (15-4-2) emerges to take on Ewell and hopes to continue his unbeaten run. He received a baptism of fire for his UFC debut getting submitted by Raoni Barcelos back in 2018 but went on beat Ryan MacDonald (unanimous decision), Geraldo de Freitas (split decision) and Vince Morales (TKO) before fighting to a draw with Cody Durden back in August.
PREDICTION
These bantamweights fight five pounds up at a catchweight of 140 lbs to make up for the late notice scheduling. Preparations have been chaotic for Ewell after getting thrown in to fight an out an out grappler in Stamann and now fights an exceptional striker in Gutierrez.
Gutierrez packs a lot of power and his leg kicks will be a problem for Ewell especially when he targets the calf and Ewell’s southpaw stance will open his right calf up. However, Ewell boasts a significant eight-inch arm and slight leg reach advantage, and he has the movement to avoid taking too much damage.
We back Ewell to edge a decision but it will only take a couple calf kicks from Gutierrez to completely stifle Ewell so this can go either way.
Prediction: Ewell via Decision
GABRIEL GREEN VS PHILIP ROWE
Gabriel Green (9-3) made his UFC debut back in May and got his six-fight win streak snapped. However, he stepped up on short notice to replace Kevin Holland and fight Daniel Rodriguez who was riding his own seven-fight win streak at the time and coming off a huge submission win over UFC veteran Tim Means. The odds were stacked against him, but he gave a good account of himself taking Rodriguez to a decision.
It is Philip Rowe’s (7-2) turn to make his debut and see if he can extend his winning streak into the UFC. After losing his first two pro fights, he has gone on to win and finish every fight since and he is coming off a huge win on the Contender Series. Although it was 18 months ago, it was a knockout over Leon Shahbazyan who Green also knocked out back in 2017.
PREDICTION
Stylistically, this should be a very exciting fight. They have finished every fight they have won in a variety of ways and are expected to bring the heat and slug it out on the feet.
Rowe will boast the range with a five-inch height and seven-inch reach advantage. He is the bigger man and his reach will be important in keeping Green at a distance. Rodriguez is extremely dangerous but Green caused a lot of problems being aggressive and stepping into range.
They have both been inactive in the last couple years but that short notice UFC fight will be priceless experience for Green and it gives him a slight edge, but this is tough to call.
Prediction: Green via Decision
GILLIAN ROBERTSON VS MIRANDA MAVERICK
Gillian Robertson (9-5) made the most of 2020 and was able to fight three times. Coming off the most devastating loss of her career so far and TKO courtesy of Maycee Barber, she responded brilliantly with a submission over Cortney Casey and a unanimous decision over Poliana Botelho but suffered her third UFC loss against Taila Santos who dominated Robertson with her wrestling. It was a disappointing setback but as time goes on, a loss to Santos will not look that bad as the Brazilian has the potential to reach the top of the division.
Miranda Maverick (8-2) got her UFC career off to a perfect start back in October on Fight Island. With two impressive wins for Invicta, submitting DeAnna Bennett and outpointing Pearl Gonzalez, Maverick entered the UFC with a healthy three-fight win streak and took on Liana Jojua. She showed off her striking with her left hand inflicting a nasty cut on the Georgian’s nose with the referee deciding it was bad enough to end the fight.
PREDICTION
We know what to expect from Robertson and that will be to take Maverick down and aggressively look for a submission. However, Maverick is also a good grappler with a brown belt in Brazilain jiu-jitsu and if her last fight is anything to go by, we can expect her stand-up to improve further.
If the fight stays on the feet, you should back Maverick all day and a grappling contest will be closer, but Robertson will have the edge so this fight will come down to Maverick’s takedown defence.
If Robertson can take Maverick down, she could find a submission or keep her on the ground long enough to seal the round but if the fight stays on the feet, Maverick’s volume will sway the judges in her favour.