UFC 257 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC 257? Sunday 24th January, 2021 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 257? Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi (UAE)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 257? No tickets are available as this event will take place with a limited number of spectators
What channel is UFC 257 on? BT Sport 1 (prelims) BT Sport Box Office (£19.95)
Where can I stream UFC 257? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website and app
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
DUSTIN POIRIER VS CONOR MCGREGOR
After Dustin ‘The Diamond’ Poirier (26-6 (1)) accepted an exhibition fight with Conor McGregor to raise money for his Good Fight Foundation, the UFC quickly butted in for a slice of the action – a no brainer as this glamour match-up will reap in millions. Poirier has always been a fan favourite in his own right and rose to the top of the lightweight food chain after 22 UFC fights, defeating Max Holloway for the interim title. However, like every top lightweight so far, he ran into the unstoppable force that is Khabib Nurmagomedov and a rear-naked choke to fall short of the real title. In true Poirier spirit, he returned to battle and fought a war with Dan Hooker back in June earning a unanimous decision in what was one of the best fights of the year.
Conor ‘The Notorious’ McGregor (22-4) vows to keep his word and donate a large sum to the Poirier’s charity now the fight is on PPV, but his priority is to be back in the MMA spotlight and prove he is still one of the best fighters in the world. Since. Carving his name in history and becoming the double champ in 2016, he has only fought twice. The submission loss to Nurmagomedov in 2018 and then 15 months later, the ruthless knockout of Donald Cerrone. It was a vintage first round assassination for McGregor and although Cerrone is a legend, he is no longer on the same level as Poirier and this fight will be the true litmus test of whether McGregor is still elite.
PREDICTION
Their first fight was over six years ago where McGregor handed Poirier his first knockout loss, but they still have the same old tools, just more experienced wielders.
Poirier wants a war and McGregor will welcome one, but he will not hide the fact the key to beating Poirier is a quick start and to come out the gate firing, homing in on his chin just like he did to Cerrone. Considering Poirier has out struck Justin Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez, Max Holloway and Hooker, it is a dangerous game plan, but McGregor believes he has the power and accuracy to put him away.
McGregor is a better technician and Poirier is a better brawler. So, Poirier wants to drag this into the championship rounds where he has the cardio to outwork him, pile on the damage to steal the later rounds or even wrap up a d’arce choke or guillotine to a tired body.
Knowing this, McGregor will want to capitalise on a slow start and bring out the brawler in Poirier who will accept getting hit to dish it back out. So, expect an early onslaught with McGregor walking Poirier down, controlling the distance with fluid movement setting up spinning kicks and that bullet of a left hand.
If this is a prime McGregor training camp and he has worked on a strategy to set up traps and have championship conditioning, you have to believe in a classic knockout finish. If he is not at his best and takes Poirier too lightly, ‘The Diamond’ will absorb two rounds and get stronger as the fight goes on, absorbing the weaker shots and unloading a relentless assault of his own.
McGregor’s cardio has improved but it may not be enough to hang with Poirier in the championship rounds. However, Poirier just needs to fall into one trap for the fight to turn. The more respectful build-up will help Poirier remain patient, but for how long?
Prediction: McGregor via KO/TKO
DAN HOOKER VS MICHAEL CHANDLER
Dan Hooker (20-9) puts his hand up to welcome the Bellator star to the UFC. He is coming off a loss, but it was a ‘Fight of the Night’ performance with Dustin Poirier. It was an incredible war going toe-to-toe with the former title challenger but eventually fell on the wrong side of a unanimous decision. That loss snapped a very impressive win streak including a knockout over James Vick and two decisions over Al Iaquinta and Paul Felder.
Michael Chandler (21-5) makes his long-waited UFC debut after a Fight Island dry run serving as the back-up for the Khabib Nurmagomedov and Justin Gaethje title fight back in October. Chandler is the former lightweight Bellator champion and holds a plethora of Bellator records including the most stoppage wins, tied most wins and most title bouts in Bellator history. After eventually taking his belt back from Brent Primus, he lost it for a third time in his sole loss in his last six fights. He took on Patricio Freire who got vengeance for his knockout loss back in 2016 with a knockout of his own. A controversial and frustrating loss, losing his title again but he bounced back with two blistering knockouts over Sidney Outlaw and Benson Henderson.
PREDICTION
Hooker is a very tough match-up for Chandler’s debut. The kiwi will boast a four-inch height and reach advantage and stylistically, he has the tools to counter the wrestler.
Chandler has an extremely dangerous skillset all based around his wrestling. He has slick jiu-jitsu and a bomb of the right hand which is set up by the threat of his takedown. Hooker has trained takedown defence his whole MMA career and his leg kicks, long punches and knees up the middle can also be the perfect counter as Chandler shoots in.
Hooker has an impressive 79% takedown defence and he has come up against good grapplers such as Jim Miller, Gilbert Burns and Al Iaquinta but they are no NCAA Division 1 wrestler. Hooker will put up a fight up against the cage, but he will struggle to prevent Chandler’s power double in the centre of the octagon.
Hooker needs to circle and not stop moving to keep this on the feet. If he succeeds, he could easily find a knockout within the three rounds. Especially, if he can coax Chandler into a brawl which he has been sucked into numerous times in his Bellator career. Chandler’s right hand will be a huge threat on the feet, but he has to be calculated as Hooker will chew him up with kicks, uppercuts and elbows.
Apart from Freire, none of Chandler’s recent opponents are on Hooker’s level and he may get a rude awakening if he tries to win a stand-up battle with him. However, Chandler is not interested in putting on a show or getting a highlight reel knockout. He just needs a win to show his new audience and casual fans that he is a legitimate contender for the belt. He will take a win however he gets it and if that means wrestling him for three rounds, that is what he will do.
If Chandler sticks to a game plan of wrestling, threatening his right hand, he can grind out a win, but Hooker has the potential to inflict an embarrassing knockout loss.
Prediction: Chandler via Decision
JESSICA EYE VS JOANNE CALDERWOOD
After Jessica Eye’s (15-8(1)) first title shot and assassination by Valentina Shevchenko back at UFC 238, she has gone 1-1 but her toughest battle has been the scales. She bounced back with a superb unanimous decision over the surging Viviane Araujo but missed weight by six pounds. She returned six months later in June to welcome Cynthia Calvillo to the division but missed weight again. To make things worse, she lost the fight via unanimous decision.
Joanne Calderwood (14-5) has also been inconsistent and has made a habit of falling just shot of the top tier. She lost to Jessica Andrade and Calvillo but got passed Kalindra Faria and Ariane Lipski wise ease but then fell to Katlyn Chookagian in a decision. Calderwood then squeaked past Andrea Lee in a split decision but is coming off submission loss to Jennifer Maia who went on to fight for the title.
PREDICTION
This will be a very competitive striking contest between Eye’s boxing and Calderwood’s Muay Thai. They are the same height with virtually the same reach, but Eye will have the weight and power advantage on the night.
A knockout is unlikely despite three rounds of trading. Eye’s last knockout was back in 2014 (Leslie Smith) and Calderwood’s was in 2016 (Valerie Letourneau) so we can expect an attritional battle where whoever can deliver the most significant strikes and damage will sway the judges.
Eye’s boxing technique and power could inflict more damage but Calderwood’s varied arsenal with leg kicks, elbows and knees in the clinch can look more impressive in the judge’s eyes. This is very close to call and got split decision written all over it. It will depend on who has had the better preparations and who is more confident on the night.
Prediction: Eye via Decision
MATT FREVOLA VS OTTMAN AZAITAR
There were questions marks about whether Matt Frevola (8-1-1) could hack it in the big time after losing and drawing his first two UFC fights. He arrived to the octagon unbeaten but got starched in his first round by Polo Reyes. He then fought to a draw with Lando Vanatta but he dusted himself off and went on to win his next two, earning unanimous decisions over Jalin Turner and Luis Pena.
The question for Ottman Azaitar (13-0) at the moment is; how high can he go? He arrived to the UFC with justified hype finishing all but one of his 11 wins (8 knockouts and two submissions) and managed to maintain that form in the UFC. He assaulted Teemu Packalen before leaving him a twitching mess with his monster right hand and then snapped Khama Worthy’s seven-fight win streak with another knockout.
PREDICTION
We are all well aware of Azaitar’s punching power so Frevola is going to have to approach this cautiously and devise a strategy based on his wrestling. He needs to weather the first round, close the distance and get him to the ground.
Frevola has to try and tire him out and finish stronger but he may not resist the urge to trade with Azaitar. He is a good striker but there is too much risk in exchanging with the Moroccan star who only needs one clean connection. Frevola can grind out a decision but over three rounds, he may leave too many opportunities for Azaitar to find the 11th knockout of his career.
Prediction: Azaitar via KO/TKO
MARINA RODRIGUEZ VS AMANDA RIBAS
Marina Rodriguez (12-1-2) is coming off the first loss of her career suffering a fate many top strawweights have suffered, getting outwrestled by Carla Esparza. This came off a draw with Cynthia Calvillo which was a great performance but means she has not won since August 2019. Not a fair reflection of her talent especially considering her last wins were unanimous decisions over Jessica Aguilar and Tecia Torres who has looked great recently.
Amanda Ribas (10-1) has quickly become one of the most exciting fighters and top contenders in the division. Mainly after her immaculate performance against Mackenzie Dern in her second UFC appearance back in October 2019. She was the underdog against the decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu champion but put on a clinic. She dominated the fight by out wrestling her and keeping her pinned to the mat and followed up that performance with a unanimous decision over Randa Markos and a ruthless submission over Paige VanZant up at flyweight.
PREDICTION
They are both very talented and skilled fighters who are well rounded with Rodriguez coming from a Muay Thai background and Ribas a Brazilian jiu-jitsu and judo background.
Excitingly, we should see all of it in this bout. Rodriguez is a long rangy striker and will have a three-inch height advantage but interestingly, she will be giving up a slight reach advantage to Ribas.
Ribas has a clear grappling advantage and Rodriguez has weak takedown defence. Once Ribas takes her down, she has the technique to keep her there. However, she will also have the confidence to take Rodriguez on at her own game.
Ribas is a solid striker, and she has the technique to counter. Rodriguez tends to throw looping hooks where Ribas’ straight punches down the pipe can catch Rodriguez especially with her reach.
The stand-up battle will be a competitive high-class contest but Ribas’ two-pronged attack should earn her a hard-fought decision showcasing her wide pallet of skill.
Prediction: Ribas via Decision
NASRAT HAQPARAST VS ARMAN TSARUKYAN
Nasrat Haqparast (12-3) takes part in the battle of the lightweight prospects. Although that status has been threatened when he ran in to Drew Dober’s left hand which sparked the first knockout loss of Haqparast’s career. It came after three impressive wins after his debut loss to Marcin Held but he got back in the win column in August where he earnt a unanimous decision over Alexander Munoz.
Arman Tsarukyan (15-2) is the dark horse in the division. Not many many people are talking about him but has proven skills and is only 24 years old. He announced himself on the big stage with a loss that still garnered respect. He stepped up on late notice to take on one of the best grapplers in the division, Islam Makhachev and although he lost a unanimous decision, he completely held his own in the fierce grappling exchanges. He has gone on to show that pedigree in his next two fights earning a unanimous decision over Olivier Aubin-Mercier and Davi Ramos.
PREDICTION
One prospect’s progress will have to stall here but they are both young and have their whole career ahead of them.
Tsarukyan is becoming a seamless fighter but his wrestling is a level above the German and he can throw him around for three rounds. That said, Haqparast’s knockout power is undeniable and he only needs to connect clean once to end the fight.
As long as Tsarukyan can avoid the hands on Haqparast, the fight will be his. He has the talent to stand and trade with him but also has the wrestling in his locker to dictate where the fight goes.
Prediction: Tsarukyan via Decision
BRAD TAVARES VS ANTONIO CARLOS JUNIOR
Brad Tavares (17-6) flies to Fight Island in search for his first win since April 2018. Then, he put on a great performance, knocking out Krzysztof Jotko in the third round. However, he was then rewarded with fights against Israel Adesanya losing a unanimous decision (2018) and then he got obliterated by an Edmen Shahbazyan head kick (2019).
He was originally scheduled to fight Antonio Carlos Junior (10-4(1)) in March last year but had to pull out with an ACL injury. Carlos Junior has waited patiently after getting injured himself and who’s last win was also in April 2018. He is also coming off two losses which were both decisions in 2019, firstly to Ian Heinisch and then Uriah Hall.
PREDICTION
Carlos Junior is one of the best jiu-jitsu practitioners in the UFC, but we have not seen that prowess for a while. He struggled to control Heinisch and Hall and worryingly, Tavares also has good takedown defence and has never been submitted in his pro career.
If Carlos Junior can take Tavares down easily or early, a submission will be there for him but only if he has enough time to work. Tavares has the experience to prevent the Brazilian dictating where the fight goes. He may get taken down, but he will not let Carlos Junior control him and can earn the decision by winning the stand-up.
Prediction: Tavares via Decision
JULIANNA PENA VS SARA MCMANN
Julianna Pena (9-4) is back and desperate to get some more fights under the belt. She has only had seven UFC fights since her debut in 2013 mainly due to a that catastrophic knee injury. She has only fought twice since her submission loss to Valentina Shevchenko in 2017 taking time out having a baby. She earnt a unanimous decision over Nicco Montano in 2019 and returned in October last year suffering a surprise submission loss to the striker Germaine de Randamie.
Sara McMann (12-5) has also been inactive in recent years welcoming a baby boy to the world. She returned last year after a couple years out and she turned back the clock with a dominant grappling performance and unanimous decision over Lina Lansberg. That was her first win in four years after suffering submission losses to Ketlen Vieira in 2017 and Marion Reneau in 2018.
PREDICTION
We do not know what kind of form they will be in but what we do know that they are two extremely strong grapplers. It will be a very interesting tussle as Pena has taken down all of her UFC opponents at least once and McMann is an Olympic silver medallist in freestyle wrestling.
You have to lean towards McMann’s credentials to win the grappling exchanges and control Pena with her wrestling which is why she is the favourite, but she is 40 years old now and her last two losses were submissions which is a worry as Pena is very slick on the ground.
This is a very tough fight to call and it is easy to see a McMann decision, but we feel an upset is likely with Pena holding her own in the wrestling and even pulling off a submission.
Prediction: Pena via Submission
KHALIL ROUNTREE JR VS MARCIN PRACHNIO
Khalil Rountree Jr (8-4 (1)) did not get to fight last year with COVID-19 getting in the way of his fight with Sam Alvey and he even considered retiring but thankfully he is back on a UFC card and what a card it is. He has been inconsistent in the UFC but when he has won, he has looked exceptional. He knocked out the kickboxing legend Gokhan Saki but then got slept by a huge Johnny Walker elbow. He then flew in to take on Eryk Anders as a newly polished Muay Thai fighter, putting on a clinic but another knockout loss to Ion Cutelaba has seen him slump to 4-4 (1) in the UFC.
Marcin Prachnio (13-5) has his last chance in the octagon after losing all three of his UFC fights. It was surprising as he arrived to the UFC at 13-2 riding an eight-fight win streak including six knockouts. However, Alvey, Magomed Ankalaev and Mike Rodriguez have given him a harsh UFC lesson with three knockouts on the bounce.
PREDICTION
This will be an exciting striking battle that is unlikely to go the distance as they both have ferocious knockout power. Prachnio has to put those losses behind him, come out confident and start quickly. He can not let Rountree settle and needs to find his chin early.
However, if the Rountree that fought Anders turns up, Prachnio will be in for a painful evening. Facing a four-fight skid and losing his place on the UFC roster will have to play on his mind being hesitant to make any mistakes and Rountree is expected to capitalise in violent fashion.
Prediction: Rountree Jr via KO/TKO
ANDREW SANCHEZ VS MAKMUD MURADOV
Andrew Sanchez (12-5) is coming off his most impressive win to date. He met Wellington Turman back in August and showed the power of the mullet sparking him in the first round claiming his first ‘performance of the night’ bonus. That made it 5-3 in the UFC for Sanchez and he needs a long run to make any impression in the middleweight division.
The perfect opportunity for an impression is a win over Makmud Muradov (24-6) who is on a 13-fight win streak and touted as future top contender. He has only had two UFC fights but his debut was a unanimous decision over Alessio Di Chirico and then followed it up with a ruthless knockout over Trevor Smith. However, that last appearance was in December 2019 and considering that was his sixth fight that year, he is not used to being inctive.
PREDICTION
This is a step-up in competition for Muradov, but we expect the same result. Sanchez is a wrestler by trade and that has to be his plan ‘A’ and only plan as Muradov is an absolute weapon on the feet.
Considering how good Sanchez looked against Turman, he may have the confidence to stand with the Uzbekistan native and if he does, it will not end well. If Sanchez looks for the early takedowns, he can win each round but the longer he stands the more likely a knockout is as Muradov has the technique to match his raw power.
Prediction: Muradov via KO/TKO
MOVSAR EVLOEV VS NIK LENTZ
Movsar Evloev (13-0) is coming off a unanimous decision win over Mike Grundy on Fight Island back in July and now replaces him as the Brit had to pull out of his fight originally scheduled for UFC on ABC 1. One of Grundy’s cornermen tested positive for COVID-19 which is gutting but his loss is Evloev’s gain as he flies back to Fight Island with the opportunity to stretch his unbeaten record.
Nik Lentz (30-11-2 (1)) suffers another drop-out but he now gets to fight on a stacked Conor McGregor card and a win over Evloev would be huge at this stage of his career. The odds are stacked against him coming off two losses. He met Charles Oliveira for the third time in May 2019 getting knocked out and then met Arnold Allen a year ago losing a unanimous decision and he has been on the sidelines most the time nursing a terrible eye injury sustained in the fight.
PREDICTION
Lentz is the heavy underdog and that is not because he is coming off two losses, more the fact that Evloev is an absolute beast and one of the hottest prospects in the featherweight division. He is the former M-1 bantamweight champion and looked exceptional in his wins over Seung Woo Choi, Enrique Barzola and Grundy.
This is a catchweight bout at 150 lbs which may favour Lentz but Evloev’s grappling is on such a level it will not matter. Lentz is an exceptional wrestler himself but Evloev has already beaten an Olympian wrestler in Grundy and he also has the striking to win the stand-up battle.
Evloev’s Greco-Roman wrestling will be enough to counter Lentz’ more traditional style and the Russian should outland and keep Lentz and the end of his punches, but he will need a flawless performance to finish the veteran.
Prediction: Evloev via Decision
AMIR ALBAZI VS ZHALGAS ZHUMAGULOV
Amir Albazi (13-1) helps kick off the blockbuster UFC 257 card with a Fight Island win already in the bank. He took on Malcolm Gordon for his UFC debut in July and it could not have gone better, wrapping Gordon up in a triangle in the first round.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov’s (13-4) debut back in the same month did not go as well. He was riding an impressive four-fight win streak including decisions over Tyson Nam, Tagir Ulanbekov and Ali Bagautinov but fell on the wrong side of the judges call against Raulin Paiva.
PREDICTION
Paiva was a big hiccup in the road for Zhumagulov but he did take the fight on short notice. He has another very tough opponent in Albazi who is also a strong grappler and well-rounded which should create an entertaining fight.
They are both very aggressive hunting the finish on the feet and on the ground, but they are so evenly matched, we could see an action-packed decision. Grappling is their bread butter, and the scrambles will be a fascinating contest as well the stand-up battle.
We can expect a fast-paced scrap with a mixture of grappling and striking. Whoever can land more significant strikes, particularly leg kicks and takedowns should be able to steal a decision.