UFC Vegas 19 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 19? Saturday 20th February, 2021 - 23:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 19? UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 19? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 19 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 19? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
CURTIS BLAYDES VS DERRICK LEWIS
Curtis Blaydes (14-2(1)) is drooling at the thought of a title shot but has to wait as Stipe Miocic and Francis Ngannou finally have a date and now with Jon Jones in picture, he is not getting a shot anytime soon so has to keep active. Ngannou is the only man to beat him and since his last knockout in November 2018, Blaydes has racked up wins over Justin Willis (unanimous decision), Shamil Abdurakhimov (TKO), Junior dos Santos (TKO) and most recently Alexander Volkov (unanimous decision) back in June.
Derrick Lewis (24-7(1)) is on a three-fight win streak with the help of a few judges. His last losses were his one-sided title fight and submission loss to Daniel Cormier followed by the TKO by dos Santos but is back on the rise. He managed to squeak past Blagoy Ivanov in a split decision which could have easily gone the other way and then earned a more convincing yet not clear-cut decision over Ilir Latifi. However, he is coming off a more classic Lewis performance knocking out Alexey Oleynik back in August.
PREDICTION
The game plan for both men is crystal clear. Lewis needs to defend the takedown and land a bomb to get the knockout whereas Blaydes will avoid that by taking him down and beating Lewis up on the mat.
Lewis has great takedown defence and has the power to only connect once but we expect Blaydes to shoot in for the takedown or force Lewis up against the fence to scoop his legs at the start of each round and keep him pinned for as long as possible until Bruce Buffer announces the unanimous decision.
Prediction: Blaydes via Decision
KETLEN VIEIRA VS YANA KUNITSKAYA
Ketlen Vieira (11-1) is hoping to retake her claim as a contender for Amanda Nunes’ title in the near future. She was steamrolling her way to it after winning her first four UFC fights including a submission over Sara McMann and a decision over Cat Zingano stretching her unblemished record to 10-0. However, she crossed paths with Irene Aldana who has the same title aspirations and made her own case by knocking Viera out in brutal fashion. A huge setback but Vieira is back on track after a unanimous decision win over Sijara Eubanks.
After bravely stepping up from Invicta to keep Cris Cyborg happy with a featherweight title shot only to get knocked out in the first round, Yana Kunitskaya (13-5) has gone on to go 3-1 at bantamweight. She earned unanimous decisions over Lina Lansberg and Marion Reneau but then felt the wrath of Aspen Ladd’s ground-and-pound suffering her second knockout. However, like Vieira she bounced back with a unanimous decision beating Julija Stoliarenko.
PREDICTION
This will be a competitive and highly skilled fight but do not expect any highlight reels. Kunitskaya is a very technical striker with a Muay Thai and Taekwondo background but she will prefer to clinch up and offload strikes without taking any damage.
However, Vieira’s aggression will help her take the fight into her realm. She is a beast of a grappler and will throw down whenever there is space. Vieira’s black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and judo should prevent Kunitskaya pinning her against the cage and the Brazilian’s hunger should give her the edge in every department.
Prediction: Vieira via Decision
CHARLES ROSA VS DARRICK MINNER
Charles Rosa (13-4) made his UFC debut all the way back in 2014 but has only fought eight times going 4-4 with a consecutive win-loss streak. After a TKO loss to Shane Burgos in 2017, Rosa was out for over two years with a neck injury but returned to submit the jiu-jitsu wizard Manny Bermudez. He returned in May last year to get the loss out the way with Bryce Mitchell earning the unanimous decision but made a quick turnaround a month later to earn a split decision on Kevin Aguilar.
Darrick Minner (25-11) has been very active fighting an average of more than four fights a year since his pro debut in 2012. He also managed to get his first two UFC fights in the pandemic hit 2020. He stepped in as a replacement for a very tough debut eventually getting submitted by Grant Dawson but responded with a merciless submission of his own against TJ Laramie,
PREDICTION
Minner is a submission savage and will hunt his 23rd from the bell but Rosa has terrific submission defence and is a black belt which makes this a compelling strap. Despite having less fights, Rosa has better experience, and he should have enough skill and nous to defend the takedown and submission attempts like he did with Bryce Mitchell.
Unless Minner catches him and knocks him down, Rosa should be able to keep out of danger and snatch a decision.
Prediction: Rosa via Decision
ALEXEY OLEYNIK VS CHRIS DAUKAUS
Alexey Oleynik (59-14-1) has a mere 74 MMA fights under his belt and is still going strong at 43 years old. He is 8-5 in the UFC only dealing in two-fight win streaks and is due another after getting knocked out by Derrick Lewis in his last fight back in August. Prior to that he submitted Maurice Greene and earnt a split decision over fellow submission ace Fabricio Werdum to bounce back from getting knocked out by Alistair Overeem and Walt Harris.
Chris Daukaus (10-3) has only just got his UFC career up and running and what a perfect start it has been. He knocked out Parker Porter on his debut back in August and followed it up two months later smoking Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira handing the Brazilian the first loss of his career.
PREDICTION
Oleynik’s only recent losses have come to knockout artists which makes this a very interesting match-up as there is a huge gulf in experience but Daukaus has knocked out all but one of his victims.
Oleynik has to know by now that his awkward striking should only be used to set up a takedown against a power puncher. His stand-up is unconventionally effective, but he has been knocked out eight times now and it is not worth the risk against and unranked fighter with a significant speed advantage.
Oleynik clearly has the skill to wrap up a variety of submissions, but only if he can close the distance without getting caught buy a Daukaus bomb. Daukaus is deceptively quick with great footwork and Oleynik’s chin is there to be hit. A Daukaus knockout or Oleynik submission are the most likely outcomes.
Prediction: Daukaus via KO/TKO
PHIL HAWES VS NASSOURDINE IMAVOV
Phil Hawes (9-2) is on fire right now and gaining more hype with each fight. After getting his head kicked off on his first appearance on the Contender Series by Julian Marquez in 2017, he has rack up four knockouts and a submission. He earnt the UFC contract by returning to the Contender Series and knocking out Khadzhimurat Bestaev and then marked a perfect UFC debut by brutally knocking out Jacob Malkoun back in October.
Nassourdine Imavov (9-2) is also tearing it up but flying in under the radar. He is on a six-fight win streak with four finishes (two submissions and two knockouts) and has gained experience at various promotions. He got the call-up after knocking out Jonathan Meunier under the Ares banner and also made his debut in October earning a unanimous decision over Jordan Williams.
PREDICTION
This is a great match-up, but one prospect is getting derailed. They are both ferocious finishers with very well-rounded skill sets and if there is not an early finish, whoever has the best cardio will come out on top.
They have the same record, but Hawes has made more noise and will be the favourite however, Imavov is a savage and one of the brightest prospects coming out of Europe.
Hawes’ power is obviously his biggest threat – in his hands and in his wrestling. He will be ready to uncork bombs and if he does not land, he will shoot in for takedowns to and try to pin the Frenchman down to unleash ground and pound.
However, his explosions of energy may see him gas out in the third round so if Imavov can weather the storm and defend the takedowns, he can capitalise in the second half of the fight to pull off a late finish or decision.
Prediction: Imavov via Decision
Value Bet: Imavov via Decision/Submission
ANDREI ARLOVSKI VS TOM ASPINALL
The legend Andrei Arlovski (30-19(2)) just keeps turning up after 51 fights and makes his 34th UFC walk. As you would expect with that many miles on the clock at 42 years of age, he has experienced miserable losing streaks, but he is still handing out lessons. After Augusto Sakai handed Arlovski a fourth loss in a row (including the Walt Harris split decision) he bounced back with a unanimous decision over Ben Rothwell but then got buried by Rozenstruik. Many thought that was a good time to call it, but he resurrected himself again to earn unanimous decisions over Philipe Lins and the surging Tanner Boser.
At the opposite end of his UFC career, Tom Aspinall (9-2) has started with a bang. He continued his 100% finish rate on his debut against Jake Collier although that was a complete mismatch and then followed it up with another brilliant knockout over Alan Baudot back in October on Fight Island.
PREDICTION
Arlovski is not the scary knockout artist he once was but he is still a huge step-up in competition for Aspinall. Arlovski fights a lot smarter these days happy to fight to the bell. Despite finishing all of his fights, Aspinall is also a calculated fighter and this will be the perfect test for him.
He is very well-rounded and has barely uses his black belt skills in jiu-jitsu, but it is his boxing that will be his biggest threat. Aspinall has better experience than his record suggests and has more speed, athleticism and power, but the glaring difference is their cage time.
Aspinall will not bring anything to the cage Arlovski has not seen before and will give him his toughest fight still offering power and speed. However, it is unlikely to be enough and Aspinall will enter the cage an even more polished version of himself. A knockout is likely, but do not expect either of them to hunt one. Aspinall will fight calm and get a read on Arlovski and rely on his technique to find a knockout later in the fight with a rare decision not out the question.
Prediction: Aspinall via KO/TKO
JARED GORDON VS DANNY CHAVEZ
Jared Gordon (16-4) continues his quest at featherweight after getting a pounding at 155 lbs. He earnt unanimous decisions over Hacran Dias and Dan Moret at lightweight but got knocked out by Carlos Diego Ferreira, Joaquin Silva and Charles Oliveira forcing him to move back down and he looked better. He took on Chris Fishgold on Fight Island back in July and earnt another unanimous decision.
Danny Chavez (11-3) is on a four-fight winning streak after his successful UFC debut in August. He strung three knockouts in a row dusting Leandro Manhaes, Felipe Vargas and Dylan Cala for different promotions which lead to his opportunity with TJ Brown and got off to a great start earning the unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
This is a great test for both fighters with Chavez testing himself against an experienced UFC fighter and Gordon testing his chin against a featherweight with knockout power.
Chavez is a nasty striker with power in his hands and feet. Expect him to open up with leg kicks while looking for an opening to find the chin. They match-up similarly physically and Gordon will be more confident in his own power at 145 lbs.
This has the makings of a war on the feet and Gordon has the experience, but Chavez has the speed and power to hurt Gordon, seal the rounds, and if even land a knockout.
Prediction: Chavez via KO/TKO
DRAKKAR KLOSE VS LUIS PENA
Drakkar Klose (11-2-1) returns after that epic encounter with Beneil Dariush nearly a year ago in March. He ended up getting knocked out, but it was a back-and-fourth battle and Klose was not far off a finish himself. That loss broke an impressive three-fight win streak which included unanimous decisions over Lando Vannata, Bobby Green and Christos Giagos.
Luis Pena (8-3) is also coming off a loss which is his third in the UFC already which is somewhat surprising after showing so much promise. After his loss to Mike Trizano, he picked up wins over Steven Peterson and Matt Wiman but lost a split decision to Matt Frevola. He bounced back with a unanimous decision over Steve Garcia but now is coming off a disappointing submission loss to Khama Worthy.
PREDICTION
Pena has the range and skill set to be a problem in the lightweight division, but he has not quite sewn it all together yet. He has no doubt been working hard in the gym and improving but Klose is a beast and Pena will have to be at his sniping best to get past him.
Pena will boast a five-inch reach and height advantage and he has to leverage that keeping Klose at range. Pena does not have spectacular knockout power, so he needs to strike from distance for 15 minutes or be aggressive with his jiu-jitsu if the fight goes to the floor.
We expect Klose to have too much for Pena and be able to close the distance on the feet and mix in takedowns to win the rounds. This is bound to be a tight contest and we can see a decision falling either way, but we give Klose the edge.
Prediction: Klose via Decision
EDDIE WINELAND VS JOHN CASTANEDA
Eddie Wineland (24-14(1)) the cracker veteran walks out for his 15th UFC fight. The WEC legend has been inactive in his later years fighting once a year since 2016 and his knockout power has not gone away but he is struggling to keep up with the new wave of fighters. After losing unanimous decisions to John Dodson and Alejandro Perez, Wineland claimed a vintage knockout over Grigory Popov but fell victim to one of the best knockouts of 2020 when Sean O’Malley starched him in June.
He takes on John Castaneda (17-5) who is coming off a debut loss against Nathaniel Wood who outclassed him in a unanimous decision. Castaneda made his name under the Combate Americas banner and was riding a huge 11-fight win streak including a Contender Series win over Cheyden Leiloha in 2017. However, he went 1-2 in his last three fights for the promotion and is desperate to rediscover his old form.
PREDICTION
Every Wineland fight is exciting on paper and he has a willing dance partner in Castaneda. Wineland has all the experience and is holding onto his vicious knockout power at the age of 36. However, his style has not adapted and keeping his hands low risking taking damage to inflict his own will not hold up for long and we saw that in his last fight. The O’Malley knockout was brutal, and he cannot afford to take much damage in this fight.
If Wineland can find the chin, we know he can put Castaneda to sleep but as this stage in his career, if he does not fight smart, Castaneda will capitalise. As long as Castaneda keeps the distance and does not engage in a brawl, we back him to win the rounds with volume or even break down the weathered chin of Wineland to land a late knockout.
Prediction: Castaneda via Decision
SHANA DOBSON VS CASEY O’NEILL
Shana Dobson (4-4) TKO’d Ariel Beck on her UFC debut after the Ultimate Fighter series in 2017 but she just did not look UFC calibre losing three fights in a row losing unanimous decisions to Lauren Mueller and Sabina Mazo before getting knocked out by Priscilla Cachoeira. She then seemed to be fed to the new prospect in the division, Mariya Agapova and was a huge underdog, but she shocked the world weathering the storm and finishing her in the second round with the second knockout of her career.
She welcomes unbeaten newcomer Casey O’Neill (5-0) to the octagon and will be the underdog again. That is because O’Neill has not really been troubled so far in her career. She picked up her first four wins for the Eternal MMA promotion in Australia and is coming off a brilliant knockout over Christina Stelliou at UAE Warriors 23.
PREDICTION
This is a great opportunity for O’Neill. Dobson is coming off the biggest win of her career, but this is a good stylistic match-up for her. They both do not have a ton of experience, but Dobson’s UFC fights will be very valuable here.
Dobson is a good striker and will be full of confidence going into this bout. She will hope O’Neill stands and trades and she has the confidence to oblige training at Tiger Muay Thai, but she also has the takedown in her locker with fierce ground-and-pound. We expect O’Neill to come out aggressive and hunt a quick finish by shooting in for a takedown and wrapping up a submission.
Prediction: O’Neill via Submission
NATE LANDWEHR VS JULIAN EROSA
After tearing up the M-1 scene and becoming their featherweight champion, Nate Landwehr (14-3) got the call-up to the big time but got his seven-fight win streak brutally snapped. He met Herbert Burns for his debut and ate a colossal Brazilian knee. However, he showed a lot of character returning four months later to earn a unanimous decision over UFC veteran Darren Elkins.
Julian Erosa (24-8) returns for the second fight in his third stint in the UFC. He went 1-1 in 2015/16 and got rewarded with another shot after spectacularly knocking out Jamall Emmers on the Contender Series back in 2018. However, he went on to get knocked out by Devonte Smith and Julio Arce after losing a unanimous decision to Grant Dawson. His third opportunity came after Kyle Nelson dropped out of his fight with Sean Woodson and with the UFC desperate for an opponent, Erosa stepped up and pulled off the upset over Woodson with d’arce choke.
PREDICTION
Erosa has a wealth of experience and although he has come up short against quality fighters, there is no doubting he is a dangerous fighter especially on the ground.
Stylistically, this should be a very exciting fight and they are expected to come out very aggressive and start trading on the feet from the bell. They will both force a pace and whoever’s defence is better should finish stronger.
Various outcomes are likely here. A submission for Erosa will come if he can rock Landwehr and they both have the power to set up a knockout but their toughness to drag this out to a decision with Landwher nicking it but this will be close.
Prediction: Landwehr via Decision
CHAS SKELLY VS JAMALL EMMERS
Chas Skelly (18-3(1)) made his UFC debut all the way back in 2014 but the crafty vet has only fought twice in nearly four years dealing with injuries. His fight with Bobby Moffett in November 2018 was memorable. He was squirming in a brabo choke in which the referee thought he went unconscious, but Skelly sprung up straight away protesting he was never out. It was a tough call but after an appeal, the bout was later overturned to a ‘no contest’. He returned to the octagon nearly a year later and enjoyed a much smoother outing earning a unanimous decision over Jordan Griffin to bump his UFC record up to 7-3(1).
Jamall Emmers (18-5(1)) only made his UFC debut last year in March and took on top prospect Giga Chikadze. A tall order for a debut but he gave the Georgian his toughest fight in the UFC so far battling to a split decision. Emmers dusted himself off and returned to the cage five months later and got back in the win column with a unanimous decision over Vince Cachero.
PREDICTION
This is an interesting match-up and should be a battle between Skelly’s wrestling and Emmers’ striking. Skelly has all the experience, but it will not be long before he realizes Emmers’s threat on the feat and looks for a takedown.
If Skelly can take him down, he can wind down the clock and look for submissions but Emmers has the youth and athleticism to keep the fight standing long enough to pick Skelly apart from range and snatch a decision.
Prediction: Emmers via Decision
AIEMANN ZAHABI VS DRAKO RODRIGUEZ
Aiemann Zahabi (7-2) has had a miserable time in the octagon compounded by a positive COVID-19 test that postponed this bout at UFC Vegas 17 in December. The brother of Firas won his debut back in 2017 against Reginaldo Vieira earning a decision but got brutally knocked out by a lethal spinning back elbow from Ricardo Ramos. He was out licking his wounds for 18 months but returned only to lose a unanimous decision to Vince Morales.
Drako Rodriguez’s (7-1) UFC debut has been delayed but he is still carrying some momentum after wrapping up Leomana Martinez in a beautiful triangle choke on the Contender Series. That submission in September made it three wins on the bounce after getting knocked out by Tony Gravely for King of the Cage in 2018.
PREDICTION
After finishing his first seven fights, Zahabi has been hit by the step-up in competition and now risks getting cut if he loses three in a row. He will need to perform a lot better than he did against Morales but is up against a hungry young lion looking to make a statement on his debut.
Rodriguez has a lot of amateur experience as well as boxing experience which is where he should win the fight. Zahabi may have the edge on the ground as a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu but we expect Rodriguez to hold his own in the grappling exchanges and sway the judges with his athleticism and output on the feet.
Prediction: Rodriguez via Decision
SERGEY SPIVAK VS JARED VANDERAA
Sergey Spivak (11-2) is coming off a win back in July which looks better with time. He got paired with Carlos Felipe who was yet to taste to defeat in his eight fights and earnt a majority decision and the Brazilin has gone on to outpoint Yorgan de Castro and Justin Tafa. Spivak is now 2-2 in the UFC with his losses coming to Walt Harris and Marcin Tybura but he clearly has pedigree at just 26 years old with his recent win and submission over Tai Tuivasa.
Jared Vanderaa’s (11-4) positive COVID-19 test forced this bout from UFC 256 to UFC Vegas 19 and he is raring to go after his knockout win on the Contender Series. After earning a unanimous decision over Tony Lopez for Smash Global, Vanderaa met Harry Hunsucker which is his actual name and put him away in the first round back in November.
PREDICTION
On paper, Spivak should take this. He has the skill and experience to shut Vanderaa down but the newcomer is not a typical lump the UFC have thrown in to make the numbers. He is dangerous and packs a lot of power especially in his hands.
Vanderaa gets his best work done in top position but Spivak has a clear advantage in the grappling department and he should not make any mistakes to end up there. Instead, he can exchange some leather on the feet before tying Vanderaa up and breaking him down possessing the jiu-jitsu to pull off a submission.