UFC on ESPN 31 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC on ESPN 31? Sunday 5th December, 2021 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC on ESPN 31? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC on ESPN 31? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC on ESPN 31 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC on ESPN 31? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ROB FONT VS JOSE ALDO
Rob Font (19-4) has quietly climbed up the ranks of the bantamweight division which is the most stacked it has ever been. He lost some momentum after getting submitted by Pedro Munhoz (2017) and losing a unanimous decision to Raphael Assuncao (2018) before he cleaned up Thomas Almeida (2018). However, he has gone on a tear since earning unanimous decisions over Sergio Pettis (2018) and Ricky Simon (2019), knocking out Marlon Moraes (2020) and now he is coming off a classy unanimous win over the former champion Cody Garbrandt back in May.
The former featherweight king Jose Aldo (30-7) heads to the APEX for his 19th UFC fight and eighth main event. The legend is on a mission for more gold and although it seems out of reach especially after already getting finished by Petr Yan (2020), he is still elite. He bounced back from a three-fight skid including his first two fights at 135 lbs. His first fight was a controversial split decision to Moraes (2019) which he should have won and then lost the title fight to Yan. He has bounced back with unanimous decisions over Marlon Vera (2020) and Munhoz (2021) and another over Font will push him closer to top of the division with the other young guns.
PREDICTION
Font’s brown belt and Aldo’s black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu will be left ringside for this one where they will put on a striking spectacle. They match-up very similar physically and are expected to engage in a violent war on the feet.
This is another five rounder for Aldo and although he prefers three rounds, he has all the championship experience with 15 title fights in the bank. Font has only been five rounds once in his career which was his fight with Garbrandt where he proved he is made for 25-minute battles.
Aldo needs to call upon all of his experience and treat Font like a title challenger. He possesses the speed and power advantage over Font and needs to manage the rounds unleashing at the right moments.
The key for Font is to keep up a suffocating pressure to break Aldo down like Holloway, Volkanovski and Yan did. Expect him to begin by pumping out his strong jab which will inevitably land. Aldo has exceptional head movement, but Font has one of the best jabs in the division.
Aldo needs to dig out his leg kicks again. They are lethal and he will not need to land many to slow Font down himself which will be crucial as we expect Font to grow stronger in each round. We also expect Aldo to target the body, throwing lightening combination before stepping back out of range.
They have the ability to find the knockout but also have the technique and durability to drag this to the bell. Aldo can sway the judges with his power landing the more significant strikes, but we have a feeling Font will bring an even more improved version of himself and earn the points with his jab and volume.
Prediction: Font via Decision
Value Bet: Aldo via Decision
BRAD RIDDELL VS RAFAEL FIZIEV
Brad Riddell (10-1) has not had an easy fight in the UFC, but he has won all four and is riding a seven-fight win streak. He earnt a unanimous decision over Jamie Mullarkey (2019) on his debut which continues to age well. He then met Magomed Mustafaev (2020) who was coming off a spectacular knockout over Fiziev and earnt a split decision. He then went on to earn unanimous decisions over Alex da Silva Coelho (2020) and Drew Dober (2021) which was a very close fight but his biggest win to date.
After Mustafaev’s majestic spinning back kick, Rafael Fiziev (10-1) has picked himself up and dusted himself off to string his first four UFC wins together. He earnt unanimous decisions over Alex White (2019) and Marc Diakiese (2020) before sparking out Renato Moicano (2020) and now he is coming off another unanimous decision over Bobby Green back in August.
PREDICTION
Unless you do not want either fighter to lose, this is perfect matchmaking. They are two of the most technical and exciting strikers in the lightweight division and they are not even in the top 10.
Riddell has more of a kickboxing base and Fiziev a Muay That although they have both trained together at Tiger Muay Thai in Thailand and they are extremely well versed in the striking realm. Riddell is more compact and relies on his hands whereas Fiziev throws an array of kicks which can tend to deplete the gas tank.
Riddell is more consistent over three rounds and as we expect this to go the distance, this will be crucial is maintaining a consistent output. Fiziev can change the course of the fight with one strike, but Riddell’s defence, durability and cardio swing this in his favour for us.
If Fiziev paces himself, his thunderous leg kicks and strikes to the body will add up. Riddell will not back down which may work against him as he will be walking into a woodchipper. Riddell also has a takedown in the locker which he will be wise to employ at least to keep Fiziev guessing.
This is going to be a back-and-forth war and we feel Riddell’s consistency and cardio will help him finish stronger in the second and third round although you can never count Fiziev out in a stand-up battle. You’ll be better off keeping your money in your pocket and simply enjoying a striking masterclass.
Prediction: Riddell via Decision
JIMMY CRUTE VS JAMAHAL HILL
Jimmy Crute’s (12-2) floppy foot has mended itself and he is desperate to get back on track and steam up the light heavyweight division. He responded to the first loss of his career in 2019 when Misha Cirkunov submitted him with a glorious Peruvian necktie with two solid wins. He submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk with a kimura and knocked out Modestas Bukauskas last year which led him into the path of Anthony Smith in April. It was the biggest fight of his career, but it ended prematurely after a leg kick hit the nerve to essentially deactivate Crute’s foot. He battled on, but the ref called it as he could not even walk.
Jamahal Hill (8-1(1)) is also coming off a loss to break his momentum. It was the first loss of career after winning his first eight fights including three UFC bouts. One of those wins was a TKO over Klidson Abreu after earning a unanimous decision over Darko Stosic on his debut. However, that TKO was eventually overturned to a ‘no contest’ after he tested positive for marijuana. He then smoked Ovince Saint Preux collecting his fourth knockout and biggest win of his career. He then suffered a brutal loss back in June when Paul Craig dislocated his elbow and then proceeded to TKO him after he did not tap.
PREDICTION
This is a fascinating match-up. Hill will boast his usual range advantage with five inches in reach and two in height whereas Crute will have the power and grappling advantage.
This will not necessarily be a striker vs grappler match-up as Crute can bang. We expect him to feel Hill out on the feet but as soon as Hill finds his range with his jab, leg kicks and begins to land, Crute will shoot in for a takedown.
The stand-up battle will be competitive but the longer this lasts on the feet, the more you have to back Hill who has the ability to earn his fifth knockout. However, if this fight hits the ground, Crute will be in his element and a submission will be very likely.
Considering Hill’s takedown defence, we are backing Crute to get the fight to the floor and if he can pin Hill down, we expect the Aussie to cinch another submission. That said, Crute is very unpredictable, and we can see wild exchanges that will favour Hill.
If Crute does not fight smart, Hill is the play as the underdog.
Prediction: Crute via Submission
Value Bet: Hill via KO/TKO
CLAY GUIDA VS LEONARDO SANTOS
Clay Guida (36-21) rocks up for his 32nd UFC fight. He has nine performance bonuses in the bank but has not earnt one since 2014 putting on a ‘fight of the night’ with Tatsuya Kawajiri when he won a unanimous decision. He has inevitably had a mixed bag in recent years but has been given some good matchups with fellow veterans instead of acting as a gatekeeper for the new breed. However, he has gone 2-4 in his last 6. He got submitted by the current champ Charles Oliveira (2018), outpointed BJ Penn (2019), submitted again by Jim Miller (2019), lost a unanimous decision to Bobby Green (2020) earnt one of his own against Michael Johnson (2021) but then got handed the unbeaten Olympic wrestler Mark Madsen losing a split decision.
Leonardo Santos’ (18-4-1) 10-year unbeaten run finally came to an end in his last outing back in March. Injuries restricted him to only 14 fights including seven UFC wins in that time and despite reaching his 40’s there was a lot of anticipation for his fight Grant Dawson. After a hiatus in 2016, he was coming off a knockout over Stevie Ray (2019) and a unanimous decision over Roman Bogatov (2020). He then welcomed Dawson up to the lightweight division and it was a great fight but his cardio finally caught up on him and Dawson capitalised with some ground-and-pound in the last few seconds to separate him from consciousness.
PREDICTION
When you have question marks over your gas tank, Guida is not the man you want to fight. ‘The Carpenter’ can go for days and is known for his relentless pace. On the other hand, when you have 10 submissions in the loss column, a World Jiu-Jitsu Championship medallist and 4th degree black belt is not someone you want to fight either.
So, this is great matchmaking, and it will be an intriguing contest to see if Guida’s wrestling can subdue the submission threat for the first two rounds before he empties the Brazilian’s tank. We hope to see a grappling battle but do not be surprised to see their skills cancel each other out forcing portions of this fight to be played out on the feet.
What Santos has in his favour here is size with a five-inch height and reach advantage. However, he needs to get to work and put it to use quickly. If this heads towards a third round, you have to back Guida to grind out a decision with his pressure and wrestling.
That said, for the first two rounds, Santos will not be deterred by the takedown as he will hunt the neck of Guida. In between takedown attempts, Santos should also have the edge on the feet. He has the range and power advantage with a blistering 1-2. Considering Guida gets hit a lot, that combination could be key slowing Guida down and even creating a scramble for a submission.
Considering Guida is the underdog, him earning a decision is certainly your best bet, but we feel Santos’ ground skills can counter Guida’s wrestling. He has the range and power to with the battle on the feet as well but this will be a close one.
Prediction: Santos via Submission
Value Bet: Guida via Decision
BRENDAN ALLEN VS CHRIS CURTIS
Thankfully Brendan Allen (17-4) remains on the card after Brad Tavares and Roman Dolidze pulled out. Allen has been in some tough fights, but he has only lost once in his last 10. He made his UFC debut in 2019 after making a defence of his Legacy Fighting Alliance middleweight title and submitting Aaron Jeffrey (2019) on the Contender Series. He then added top talents Kevin Holland (2019), Tom Breese (2020) and Kyle Daukaus (2020) to the win column before meeting Sean Strickland (2020). He got TKO’d in the second round but bounced back with a submission over Karl Roberson (2021) and a unanimous decision over Punahele Soriano (2021) handing him the first loss of his career.
Chris Curtis (27-8) volunteers to step up again. He accepted a short notice fight against Phil Hawes back at UFC Fight Night 194 although it got rescheduled for UFC 268. Hawes claimed it would be a good test to allow Curtis extra time to prepare and study some tape. It was a great idea as Curtis smoked him in the first round to pull off a huge upset win. He is now on a six-fight win streak including five knockouts to put that three-fight skid under the Professional Fighters League in 2019 thoroughly behind him.
PREDICTION
Curtis is unsurprisingly the underdog again especially fighting up a middleweight. Allen is the bigger man but will not have a reach advantage. He has the experience and skills to beat Curtis in a number of ways however, as we have seen, Curtis only needs to land once to pull off the upset.
Allen’s striking defence is one of his only weaknesses so there is certainly a window of opportunity for Curtis to land the knockout blow. The odds will not be as favourable for Curtis as his last fight, but a knockout is still worth a shout. That said, Allen is better everywhere, and we expect his grappling to earn him a decision or submission.
Prediction: Allen via Decision
Value Bet: Curtis via KO/TKO
MAKI PITOLO VS DUSKO TODOROVIC
Maki Pitolo (13-8) is fighting to save his UFC future here. He burst onto the UFC scene on the Contender Series knocking out Justin Sumter (2019) extending his record to 12-4. However, he has gone 1-4 in his five UFC fights. He lost a unanimous decision to Callan Potter (2019) on his debut, bounced back with a TKO over Charles Byrd (2020) but got submitted by Darren Stewart (2020) and Julian Marquez (2021) sandwiching a unanimous decision loss to Impa Kasanganay (2020). So, a fourth loss will surely be terminal to his UFC career.
Dusko Todorovic (10-2) is not fairing too much better having lost his last two. Those were the first losses of his career and came after a unanimous decision over Teddy Ash (2019) on the Contender Series to set up a debut against Dequan Townsend (2020). He proceeded to knock him out in the second round but went on to get TKO’d himself by Punahele Soriano (2021) and is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Gregory Rodrigues.
PREDICTION
Both men are aggressive strikers and there is a lot of pressure on them here so do not be surprised if this starts off cagey and they are hesitant to pull the trigger. They are both good fighters and capable of stringing some UFC wins together but they need to approach this in the same way as the performances that got them to the octagon.
Pitolo needs to be patient and wait for Todorovic to engage as his defence is suspect at best. The Serbian leaves his chin wide open with his hands down and Pitolo has the power to end the fight with one clean punch.
Todorovic has to sharpen up his defence, but he still needs to be aggressive and put Pitolo on the back foot. He will be confident of winning the stand-up battle, but he would be wise to mix in a takedown as he has the advantage on the ground.
If this remains on the feet, a knockout either way is likely especially considering their defence. If Todorovic actually decides to put his hands up and can get the fight to the ground, he can also pull off a submission or decision. A lot of outcomes are possible here and Pitolo is a smart bet if he is the underdog.
Prediction: Todorovic via Decision
Value Bet: Pitolo via KO/TKO
MANEL KAPE VS ZHALGAS ZHUMAGULOV
Manel Kape (16-6) finally showed us what got him to the UFC dance. In 2019, he won the Rizin bantamweight championship by knocking out Seiichiro Ito, Takeya Mizugaki and Kai Asakura in the space of eight months. However, his entrance to the flyweight division did not go to plan. He had an incredibly tough debut against veteran Alexandre Pantoja and lost a unanimous decision. He then lost another decision, but it was a very tight split decision against Matheus Nicolau. He returned five months later in August this year and dispatched Ode Osbourne with a lightening flying knee in the first round.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-5) has had a very similar path to UFC on ESPN 31. He enjoyed a four-fight win streak for Fight Nights Global on his way to the UFC that included the scalps of current UFC fighters Tyson Nam, Tagir Ulanbekov who he beat for the flyweight title and then defended it against UFC alumni Ali Bagautinov. He went on to lose his first two UFC fights via decision dropping unanimous points to Raulin Paiva and Amir Albazi. However, he jumped back into the win column with a finish and submission over Jerome Rivera back in July.
PREDICTION
Kape will possess the size and power advantage as the natural bantamweight, but the UFC will not tolerate him missing weight again. The southpaw will go about business as usual patiently waiting to uncork his power from all eight limbs.
Kape can also wrestle and will need those skills defensively as Zhumagulov will look to suffocate him with his pressure. The Kazakhstani is well-rounded, but we do not expect him to spend much time trading with Kape on the feet.
Zhumagulov wins this by keeping the fight at close range, clinching up and taking Kape to the mat, sapping his energy and grinding out another decision. However, we are backing Kape to defend the majority of takedowns and landing more damage. He will not throw much volume, but his power should sway the judges with Zhumagulov’s durability keeping him in the fight.
Prediction: Kape via Decision
Value Bet: Zhumagulov via Decision
JAKE MATTHEWS VS JEREMIAH WELLS
Jake Matthews (17-5) has been around for a hot minute making his UFC debut back in 2014, but it still feels like he is yet to reach his potential. He made a lot of progress after finally moving up to welterweight in 2017 and he has gone 6-2 since. Those losses should not have dented his stock as they were against beastly grapplers Rocco Martin (2018) and Sean Brady (2021) who both cinched submissions in the third round. In between those losses he earnt unanimous decisions over Rostem Akman, Emil Meek and Diego Sanchez.
Jeremiah Wells (9-2-1) is the man assigned to stop Matthews regaining any momentum and he is coming in hot after a memorable debut back in June. He snapped up an opportunity to make his UFC debut filling in for Ramazan Emeev at UFC Fight Night 190. He took on the veteran Warlley Alves and he rose up to his level displaying some strong resistance to Alves’ grappling before knocking him out cold in the second round. That win made it three finishes in a row knocking out Mumia Abu Dey-Ali and Marco Smallman (2019) for the Cage Fury Fighting Championships.
PREDICTION
Wells is an absolute specimen, and this is a very tough fight for Matthews especially as Wells is not a big name yet. Matthews is very well-rounded, and we expect him to call upon his experience to mix up his striking and grappling.
Wells is a wild man on the feet. He swings wildly and has devastating power in his hands, but his chin will be exposed when he swings. Matthews is not a clinical counter striker, so we would be surprised if he knocks him out on the feet.
He is more likely to finish him late after tiring him out with his wrestling. We are backing Matthews to hang with Wells on the feet but seal the deal with his wrestling.
Prediction: Matthews via Decision
CHEYANNE BUYS VS MALLORY MARTIN
Cheyanne Buys (6-2) aka Cheyanne Vlisman got her UFC career up and running in spectacular fashion back in July. She was sitting at 5-1 after earning a unanimous decision over Hilarie Rose on the Contender Series and made her debut against fellow debutant Montserrat Ruiz four months prior. There was a fair bit of hype around Buys before the fight, but Ruiz popped it with a dominant grappling display earning a unanimous decision. She returned against Gloria de Paula and reminded everyone why there was some hype by knocking her out in the first round and collecting a ‘performance of the night’ bonus in the process.
Mallory Martin (7-4) also suffered a deflating loss on her debut. Virna Jandiroba collected the 12th submission of her career snapping a five-fight win streak. She bounced back with a submission of her own against Hannah Cifers but got submitted again by Polyana Viana back in February this year. She is now 1-2 in the UFC and although her losses where to quality competition, she needs a win to earn any relevancy in the division.
PREDICTION
Martin has a huge opportunity here to catapult her stock like Ruiz did. Her best chance is to rely on her grappling. She can strike but Buys is a level above and after seeing Ruiz ragdoll her around, she is likely to shoot in for a takedown at some point hoping to show off her jiu-jitsu skills.
If she can get the fight to the ground she has a chance, but we have not seen enough to suggest she can perform at a high level. Cifers is not UFC calibre, and she does not possess the wrestling skills of Ruiz.
Ruiz made her look like a novice, but Buys can grapple and will go toe-to-toe with her in the exchanges and may even land her takedown herself. However, we expect Buys to get the job done on the feet where she has a significant speed advantage and the technique to seal a comfortable decision at least.
Prediction: Buys via Decision
WILLIAM KNIGHT VS ALONZO MENIFIELD
William Knight (10-2) showed all the right signs in living up to his potential on his UFC debut back in September. After demolishing Cody Brundage with elbows on the Contender Series, he took on the undefeated Aleksa Camur and looked superb throwing in his wrestling to show he is more than just a knockout artist. He then went on to suffer the second loss of his career losing a unanimous decision to the surging Da Un Jung however, just like with his loss to Tafon Nchukwi, he bounced back with a vintage knockout, this time over Fabio Cherant.
He has been rewarded with a fellow powerhouse who has regained some important momentum. Alonzo Menifield (11-2) started his career in a similar fashion to Knight finishing his first nine fights but stumbled losing a unanimous decision to Devin Clark and a brutal knockout courtesy of Ovince Saint Preux. However, he has bounced back with two wins on the trot submitting Cherant and earning a unanimous decision over Ed Herman.
PREDICTION
This could be absolute fireworks. Knight and Alonzo are athletic specimens and if they both hunt the knockout somebody is getting put to sleep very quickly. However, as we saw in his last fight, Knight called upon his wrestling to avoid the knockout threat of Camur, grinded him down and earned a sensible decision and that is also what Devin Clark did to Menifield.
Knight has the power to knock Menifield out but if he tries he will risk exchanging dynamite. If he wants to play it smart the clear strategy is to take Menifield down and win the fight with his grappling. With a better gas tank, a calculated decision is there for him and there will be good odds for that.
However, Menifield has shown some great improvements since his two losses and if he improves further, he should add Knight to his victim sheet with every method of victory possible.