UFC 269 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC 269? Sunday 12th December, 2021 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 269? T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 269? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 268
What channel is UFC 269 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC 269? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
CHARLES OLIVEIRA VS DUSTIN POIRIER
The new lightweight king, Charles Oliveira (31-8(1)) heads to the T-Mobile Arena to defend his title for the first time. It took him 28 UFC fights to earn a title shot which is great to see. The jiu-jitsu wizard has evolved into a seamless fighter with clean and crisp boxing technique which was on full display in his title fight with Michael Chandler. He got rocked early but proved the doubters wrong by showing a ton of heart and rallying back with beautiful technique showing the composure of a champion in adversity. That win made it nine wins on the bounce and that knockout added another record - the most finishes in UFC history (17) to go along with his most submissions and ‘performance of the night’ bonuses in UFC history.
The man with arguably the most impressive record right now, Dustin Poirier (28-6(1)) makes his second attempt for the coveted lightweight gold. After finishing Anthony Pettis (2017), Justin Gaethje (2018), Eddie Alvarez (2018) and breaking Max Holloway’s (2019) 13-fight win streak with a unanimous decision, he earnt his first shot at Khabib Nurmagomedov (2019). He inevitably got submitted but quickly resumed picking off the elite including Dan Hooker (2020) and Conor McGregor twice this year.
PREDICTION
With 54 UFC fights between them, we have witnessed these two evolve into two of the most well-rounded and elite fighters on the roster and it is perfect that they finally meet for the title.
We know how well-rounded they are but Oliveira no doubt has the advantage on the ground and Poirier on the feet. That said, Oliveira will have the confidence to stand and trade with Poirier. He has the technique and accuracy to cause to some damage, but he has to bring out something special as Poirier is battle-hardened in striking wars with the best lightweights in the world. He has also only ever lost two decisions in his career with his last dating back to 2013 (Cub Swanson).
We feel the Brazilian has to get the finish which is convenient considering he holds the UFC record and the most likely way that will happen is to rock Poirier, create a scramble and pounce on a guillotine or rear naked choke.
Poirier has the wrestling to defend the takedown attempts, so Oliveira needs to hurt him or catch him off guard to get the fight to the mat. Poirier has great jiu-jitsu, but Oliveira is a genius when it comes to transitioning positions to set up a submission.
However, we feel Poirer has too much nous to make a mistake and the durability to endure five rounds. So, we expect the majority of this fight to be a stand-up battle where Poirier’s power and unrivalled experience make him the heavy favourite for us.
If the fight gets scrappy or Poirier underestimates Oliveira’s striking, the Brazilian has a chance, but we expect Poirier’s weight and wrestling advantage to prevent him landing on his back and offload a steady stream of heavy leg kicks and combinations to break Oliveira down to set up a late vintage ‘Diamond’ finish. If the fight lasts five rounds and Oliveira is exhausted, a Poirier submission is not out the question.
Prediction: Poirier via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Poirier via Submission
AMANDA NUNES VS JULIANNA PENA
Amanda Nunes (21-4) is the ‘GOAT’ of women’s MMA and frankly, should be celebrated more. The double champion has cleaned out the bantamweight and featherweight divisions and is on a 12-fight win streak with eight finishes (five knockouts and three submissions). She is coming off two featherweight title defences - Felicia Spencer (2020) via unanimous decision and Megan Anderson (2021) via submission. This will be the seventh defence of her bantamweight title which she lasted defended in 2019 when she cleaned Holly Holm’s clock with a head kick.
Her next challenger is Julianna Pena (10-4) who has fought four times in the last five years going 2-2 which says a lot about the bantamweight division right now. That said, Pena is a very tough individual and since recovering from a career threatening knee injury in 2014, she has rallied back with decent wins over the likes of Jessica Eye (2015), Cat Zingano (2016), Nicco Montano (2019) and most recently Sara McMann (2021) who she submitted in the third round. Her recent losses also came to Valentina Shevchenko who is right behind Nunes in the pound-for-pound list right behind Nunes on the pound-for-pound list and Germaine de Randamie.
PREDICTION
Pena is a very strong and durable wrestler and her game plan will be to grapple Nunes for five rounds and that is why she is a monstrous underdog. Nunes is the most dangerous striker in female history, but she is also a very powerful grappler.
She has the jiu-jitsu to fend off any submission attempts and the wrestling to prevent the fight going to the canvas in the first place. Pena is likely to enforce a clinch and may even land a takedown, but Nunes’ technique and power will create enough space to offload her frightening power to make Pena look like an amateur on the feet and claim her 14th knockout.
Prediction: Nunes via KO/TKO
GEOFF NEAL VS SANTIAGO PONZINIBBIO
Geoff Neal (13-4) went from the bogeyman of the division and potential title challenger to facing a three-fight skid. He blasted his way up the rankings after his debut in 2018 when he submitted Brian Camozzi. He obliterated Frank Camacho (2018) with a head kick, outpointed Belal Muhammad (2019) and then steamrolled Niko Price and Mike Perry with more TKO’s to announce himself as a top contender. However, he got outclassed on the feet by the kickboxing technician Stephen Thompson (2020) and is coming off another unanimous decision, this time to Neil Magny (2021) to dent the record.
Whilst Neal was collecting bodies, Santiago Ponzinibbio (28-4) was forced to watch from the sidelines with injury and illness. When he knocked out Magny (2018) he was riding an impressive seven-fight win streak, but his time off clearly took the wind out of his sails as when he eventually returned in January this year, he got a taste of his own medicine getting knocked out by Li Jingliang. However, he showed a lot of character on his return in June taking on Miguel Baeza who was unbeaten at the time and finishing people for fun. He went a hard three rounds with the Brazilian and came out on top with a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
The UFC clearly have not cared about Ponzinibbio’s time off as he has been handed killer after killer on his return. Neal is on a slump, but he obviously still possesses that frightening knockout power and as we expect a stand-up battle, be prepared for fireworks.
They are both electric boxers and although Ponzinibbio has lost a bit of pop, that win over Baeza will inject some much-needed confidence for this fight. As for Neal this will be his first real test of character in the UFC.
They both have to stick to their strengths and be aggressive offloading combinations. That said, we expect some hesitancy from them, mainly due to the respect in each other’s knockout power. If they start throwing one strike at a time, the other other needs to capitalize with counters.
This will not be fought as the fastest pace as they will be more calculated, but the exchanges will be explosive. Although Ponzinibbio is dangerous, this is a better match-up for Neal and as the underdog, he is the smart pick, and a knockout would be a great shout.
However, after Neal got arrested for drunk driving only a couple weeks ago, we can not imagine he is in the right head space, so we are backing the Argentinian. He still has the touch of death in his hands, so a knockout is never out the equation.
Prediction: Ponzinibbio via Decision
Value Bet: Neal via KO/TKO
KAI KARA-FRANCE VS CODY GARBRANDT
Kai Kara-France (22-9(1)) has gone 2-2 after the current champion Brandon Moreno snapped his eight-fight win streak. In his first three UFC fights he earnt decent decisions over Elias Garcia, Raulian Paiva (who fights Sean O’Malley on this card) and Mark De La Rosa but dropped the points against Moreno two years ago. He responded with another decision over Tyson Nam before that wild scrap with Brandon Royval where he eventually got submitted. He returned this year and put on a ‘performance of the night’ against Rogerio Bontorin knocking him out the first round.
Now, he welcomes Cody Garbrandt (12-4) down to the flyweight division. The former bantamweight champion needed a change after losing four out of his last five and struggling to keep up with the elite of the division. The first loss of his career came in his title defence and grudge match with TJ Dillashaw. He got knocked out again in the rematch and then Pedro Munhoz made it three knockouts in a row. He returned 15 months later to pull off a vintage Garbrandt knockout over Raphael Assuncao but another year later in May this year, he lost a unanimous decision to Rob Font.
PREDICTION
When Garbrandt put on a clinic against Dominick Cruz, we thought we were witnessing the next bantamweight ‘GOAT’. Now, he has resorted to searching into the flyweight division for wins. Injury and inactivity slowed him down for sure, but the method he was losing was alarming. However, at 125 lbs, there is more room for error with his lack of fight IQ .
Providing he can make weight smoothly, he will be safe in the knowledge that he will be serving up more power than any other flyweight. So, Kara-France will need to sharpen up his defence here as Garbrandt will not need 3.84 significant strikes per minute to put him away. In fact, he only needs one.
The Kiwi is a striker by trade and is technically sound so if Garbrandt throws the game plan out the octagon again and decides to plant and swing, Kara-France will capitalize. He possesses a four-inch reach advantage despite giving up four in height and Garbrandt will be depleted making his chin even weaker.
If Garbrandt struggles with his weight cut, you have to back Kara-France and considering he is the underdog, he is the smart bet. If he makes the 125 mark easily, Garbrandt is the pick with more experience, power, speed and only needs one clean clip of the jaw.
Prediction: Garbrandt via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Kara-France via KO/TKO
RAULIAN PAIVA VS SEAN O’MALLEY
After losing his first two UFC fights, Raulian Paiva (21-3) is back on the march winning three on the bounce to prop up his attractive record. He lost a split decision to Kai Kara-France (2019) on his debut and then got knocked out by Rogerio Bontorin (2019). He showed a lot of character returning to starch Mark De La Rosa (2020) and followed it up with decisions over Zhalgas Zhumagulov (2020) and Kyler Phillips (2021) where he moved up at bantamweight.
Sean O’Malley (14-1) is the man assigned for Paiva’s second fight in the division. To O’Malley’s credit, the ‘Suga Show’ has not lost much steam after his high-profile loss to Marlon Vera (2020) although O’Malley, did not feel humbled, treating the kick that disabled his leg as a freak accident. He smoked Jose Quinonez (2020) and Eddie Wineland (2020) before that fight and continued where he left off by knocking out Thomas Almeida (2021) and Kris Moutinho (2021).
PREDICTION
As good as Paiva’s record looks, he only has one impressive win in the books. No bantamweights will be impressed with wins over flyweights De La Rosa and Zhumagulov but moving up to 135 lbs and outpointing the top prospect Phillips was hugely impressive.
That said, it is still a surprise to see him paired with O’Malley although it makes sense for the UFC to see O’Malley collect a few more wins on pay-per-view cards. Paiva has relied on his striking so far in the UFC, but if he decides to stand and trade with O’Malley, he is going to look like an amateur.
O’Malley has good jiu-jitsu but if the Brazilian can get him down, his black belt skills will be a serious threat. Even he if wrestles for three rounds to close the distance, he has a chance, but we expect O’Malley to conduct the distance and tempo, leveraging his three-inch height and reach advantage, breaking Paiva down with all eight limbs to set up a late knockout.
Prediction: O’Malley via KO/TKO
PEDRO MUNHOZ VS DOMINICK CRUZ
Pedro Munhoz (19-6(1)) has lost three of his last four which is more of a sign of how stacked the bantamweight division is right now. After knocking out the former champion Cody Garbrandt, he lost a unanimous decision to Aljamain Sterling (2019) and then a a razor thin split decision to Frankie Edgar (2020). He bounced back with a unanimous decision of his own over Jimmie Rivera but then ran into the path of the resurgent Jose Aldo receiving a clinic and losing another unanimous decision. He has now been handed another legend and good friend.
The fact that Dominick Cruz (23-3) has only won one fight since 2016 but is still ranked in the top 10, says all you need to know about the former champion. IT is astonishing that he is still competing at his level considering the amount of severe injuries he has suffered. Garbrandt (2016) was the man to eventually beat the champion pulling out the best performance of his career to win the belt. Cruz then suffered a familiar four-year layoff before returning to another title fight, this time with Henry Cejudo (2020) who finished him in the second round. It has appeared that the injuries have finally crept up on Cruz, but he managed to pull off a very classt split decision win over Casey Kenney back in March.
PREDICTION
Cruz was suffering with plantar fasciitis in the Cruz fight, you can argue it was an early stoppage in the Cejudo fight and that win over Kenney proved he still has a lot to offer but he is inevitably not the fighter he was.
Munhoz used to be known for his jiu-jitsu and in particular his guillotine, but he has become a ferocious striker with knockout power and thunderous leg kicks.
It was leg kicks that set up Cejudo’s finish, clearly targeting the damaged knees of Cruz. One clean kick can completely disable him even though he will no doubt have a clear strategy to avoid absorbing them.
Unlike Munhoz, Cruz wins his fights in the same fashion by utilizing his infamous footwork and head movement to frustrate his opponents, making them miss and offloading a constant output with his volume winning the fight.
He still has the skill to do exactly that to Munhoz, but the Brazilian’s leg kicks could be the game changer. Cejudo clearly hurt Cruz with his leg kicks and Munhoz’s kicks are a lot more powerful.
The smart pick is a Cruz decision or a Munhoz knockout set up by leg kicks. It can go either way, but we are backing Cruz to execute a calculated strategy to avoid the weapons of Munhoz and use his speed, movement and experience to seal the rounds.
Prediction: Cruz via Decision
Value Bet: Munhoz via KO/TKO
AUGUSTO SAKAI VS TAI TUIVASA
After winning his first four UFC fights, Augusto Sakai (15-3-1) was flying high on six-fight win streak. He knocked out Chase Sherman (2018) on his debut and then collect three impressive scalps – Andre Arlovski (2019) via split decision, Marcin Tybura (2019) via knockout and Blagoy Ivanov (2020) via split decision. However, he has not kept afloat with tougher competition getting outclassed and finished by Alistair Overeem (2020) and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (2021).
Tai Tuivasa (12-3) hopes to make it three losses in a row for Sakai and after suffering his own three-fight skid a couple years ago, he has tightened up his game and back to his winning ways with three knockouts in a row. He lost to Junior dos Santos (2018), Blagoy Ivanov (2019) and Sergey Spivak (2019) and has responded by dispatching Stefan Struve (2020), Harry Hunsucker (2021) and Greg Hardy (2021)
PREDICTION
This is going to be a tense striking battle and the pace will depend on Tuivasa. Sakai has good movement for his size, but he was very hesitant after his loss to Overeem. He waited for Rozenstruik to press the action and with his power, it was only a matter of time before the Suriname native turned the lights off.
If he is hesitant again, Tuivasa is going to leverage his athleticism and dynamism to capitalize like a predator. The Aussie also has his confidence back which is bad news for for Sakai. If the Brazilian can come out the gate with his leg kicks to slow Tuivasa down and enforce the clinch, he can wear him down and deplete the gas tank.
However, we feel ‘Bam Bam’s’ speed and power advantage will be too much for Sakai, and if he times his explosions of energy right, he will walk away with his 12th knockout.
Prediction: Tuivasa via KO/TKO
JORDAN WRIGHT VS BRUNO SILVA
It is good to Jordan Wright (12-1(1)) on the card after his last fight was scrapped at the weigh-ins back in October. Julian Marquez pulled out with health issues which is always hard to take for both fighters. Wright is coming off his biggest win to date knocking out Jamie Pickett in the first round which came in response to his first official loss getting knocked out by Joaquin Buckley a year ago. He first got knocked out in 2018 by Anthony Hernandez which was later overturned to a ‘no contest’ after popping for marijuana. Wright responded to that unofficial loss by picking up two more vintage finishes against Gabriel Checco and Ike Villanueva.
Cut from the same cloth, Bruno Silva (21-6) walks out for the third time this year riding a six-fight knockout streak. After finishing Alexander Shlemenko and Artem Frolov for M-1 in 2018, he served a drugs ban before eventually making his UFC debut. The ban clearly did not derail his momentum as he buried Wellington Turman in the first round back in June and then pulled off an incredible knockout over Andrew Sanchez after getting wrestled for two and a half rounds.
PREDICTION
When two fighters enter the octagon with the same mantra of ‘kill or be killed’ we know we are in for a show with someone likely to get slept. You just have to look at their stats to know what we are in for with Wright throwing 7.1 significant strikes per minute and Silva 5.1 with not a single takedown landed between them.
Wright has a three-inch reach advantage here, but the key stat is Wright’s 7.5 significant strikes absorbed per minute. His defence is a glaring weakness, and you cannot afford one taste of Silva’s hands.
Wright has more variety in his strikes throwing an array of kicks and has a decent clinch, but he does not have the power of the Brazilian. He also does not have any impressive wins on the record, and this is a perfect match-up for Silva.
He is taking on a fellow striker who has not fought the same calibre of competition and has the defence to make his chin an easy target. We fully expect a Silva knockout and he will probably get it done quickly.
Prediction: Silva via KO/TKO
MIRANDA MAVERICK VS ERIN BLANCHFIELD
Miranda Maverick (9-3) heads to the T-Mobile Arena hoping to make amends for her controversial loss to Maycee Barber back in July. Somehow two judges gave Barber the nod which snapped her five-fight win streak. She submitted DeAnna Bennett (2019) and outpointed Pearl Gonzalez (2020) for Invicta earning her spot on the UFC roster. She was scrapping with Liana Jojua on her debut until the referee called the fight after Maverick sliced her nose up. She followed that up with an impressive unanimous decision over Gillian Robertson to set up the fight with Barber.
Erin Blanchfield (7-1) originally filled in for Montana De La Rosa to fight Barber but then Barber dropped out opening the door for Maverick. Blanchfield is riding a four-fight win streak after suffering the first loss of her career. That loss was a split decision to Tracy Cortez (2019) which is not a bad loss with hindsight. She submitted Gabriella Gulfin (2019) for Cage Fury FC, cleaned Victoria Leonardo’s clock with a head kick (2020) and outpointed Brogan Walker-Sanchez (2020) for Invicta. That led to her UFC debut against Sarah Alpar who she beat via unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
This completely new pairing has turned out to be a great one. We have two very talented ladies who are destined to climb the flyweight ranks. Maverick is only 24 and Blanchfield 22 but they are well-rounded already.
Maverick is a dynamic striker with a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu who has amassed some decent experience in only 12 professional fights. Blanchfield is a beast on the mat as a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and is an Eddie Bravo Invitational champion.
Maverick has the power advantage which will help with her wrestling. However, she will have to approach the grappling exchanges carefully as Blanchfield will always be a submission threat but that may not stop Maverick subduing her with her wrestling and clinch.
We can see their grappling cancelling each other out which will create time on the feet. Here, we would back Maverick’s, speed and power to win the exchanges. Blanchfield does have that head kick knockout in the bank, but she is unlikely to have the speed and power to trouble Maverick.
This will be a very close fight and although they are more than capable of a finish, we expect this to go to the bell. We are backing Maverick to hold her own in the grappling exchanges and stretch away from her in the striking exchanges to sway the judges.