UFC Fight Night 198 - Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Night 198? Saturday 20th November, 2021 - 21:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 198? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 198? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Fight Night 198 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 198? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
KETLEN VIEIRA VS MIESHA TATE
Ketlen Vieira (11-2) cannot wait to lace up the gloves since this date got pushed back from UFC Fight Night 195. It is the biggest fight of her career, and she is coming off a frustrating loss to Yana Kunitskaya. They met back in February after Vieira missed weight and Kunitskaya got the nod from all the judges after a grinding performance. Now, she is desperate to bounce back like she did after getting knocked out by Irene Aldana when she cruised to a unanimous decision win over Sijara Eubanks in September last year.
A bout of the C-word forced Miesha Tate (19-7) out of their original date and it was an unwelcome speed bump in her return. She came out of retirement in July last year having not fought since November 2016 when she lost a unanimous decision to Raquel Pennington. It was a very kind welcome-back and retirement fight for Marion Reneau who Tate mercilessly finished in the third round via TKO.
PREDICTION
It is usually a worrying sign to see an MMA fighter come out of retirement, but Tate is only 35 years old and is in a different place. She is rejuvenated and is in the best physical shape of her life.
However, she is not fighting a retired 44-year-old. Vieira is in her physical prime and although she has lost two of her last three, she has experienced a priceless learning curve.
The key stat here will be Vieira’s takedown defence which is an impressive 92% especially considering she has fought some quality grapplers. Tate will get her wrestling boots on at some point but there will be some interesting striking exchanges beforehand.
Vieira is a powerful striker and confident in her chin. She is also mixes in her takedowns very well in between the striking exchanges. Tate will have to be cautious when she shoots in as Vieira is a black belt in judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, so she is more than capable of landing in top position in the scrambles and threatening a submission on the ground.
Tate is still a dog, and she will make it difficult for Vieira wherever the fight goes. The Brazilian is the bigger woman and her activity swings this in her favour for us. We expect her to win the stand-up battle and if Tate cannot take her down, Vieira will grow into the fight, gain more confidence and offload more damage.
This is a much tougher test for the former champion and the only path to victory we can see for her is to wrestle for three rounds, but we are backing Vieira.
Prediction: Vieira via Decision
MICHAEL CHIESA VS SEAN BRADY
Michael Chiesa (18-5) is hoping to bounce back after his brilliant welterweight run led him into the path of the trailblazing Vicente Luque (2021) who disposed of him with a ruthless D’arce choke in the first round. It was a humbling defeat after Chiesa moved up to 170 lbs and looked dominant in submitting Carlos Condit (2018) and bagging unanimous decisions over Diego Sanchez (2019), Rafael dos Anjos (2020) and Neil Magny (2021) with his wrestling. He now faces the man nobody wants a piece of at the moment.
Sean Brady (14-0) protects his perfect record and is coming off two impressive submissions. They made it 4-0 in the UFC after earning unanimous decisions over Court McGee (2019) and Ismail Naurdiev (2020). The former Cage Fury Fighting Championships champion then went through the gears by submitting Christian Aguilera (2020) and the Jake Matthews (2021) to announce himself as a top prospect.
PREDICTION
This is a fascinating match-up and a tough hand for Chiesa coming off that loss. That said, Brady is only getting better so you would want to fight him before he gains more experience.
Like all Chiesa’s fights where he gives up a striking advantage, he will resort to his bread and butter and shoot in for a takedown. Brady is a brilliant striker with a Muay Thai background so expect Chiesa to waste no time in diving for a single leg or blast double takedown.
The question is whether Brady’s grappling is enough to stifle Chiesa. We think they are. Chiesa’s technique and reach advantage will help him tie Brady up but Brady is a powerhouse with the technique to match.
He is a strong wrestler with a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu so we cannot see him getting submitted. His only threat is Chiesa wrestling for three rounds where he will not absorb any damage, but Chiesa will stay on him like a wet blanket, draining his energy.
We feel Brady’s power will be the difference. Chiesa mauled Sanchez, dos Anjos and Magny but Brady is a different beast when it comes to strength and explosiveness and if he can create any space, he will light Chiesa up on the feet.
In all, this will be a a competitive fight and we can see Chiesa grinding out an uneventful decision. As good as Brady looks, he is unproven at this level and as Chiesa is the underdog, he is a no brainer if you want to throw some money at this.
That said, we feel Brady will hurt Chiesa on the feet whenever there is space, and he has the power will stifle Chiesa’s wrestling. He also has the ground skills to capitalise on Chiesa’s suspect submission defence and may even choke him out.
Prediction: Brady via Submission
Value Bet: Chiesa via Decision
JOANNE CALDERWOOD VS TAILA SANTOS
Joanne Calderwood (15-6) or Joanne Wood as she recently tied the knot makes the walk for her third appearance of the year and is hoping to bounce back from a loss. She lost a split decision to Lauren Murphy in June which came off the back off a brilliant unanimous decision win over veteran Jessica Eye (2021). She is now falling victim to a classic consecutive win/loss record which is almost inevitable at the top of a female division illustrating its competitiveness. Before the win over Eye, she got submitted by Jennifer Maia (2020) which came after a split decision win over Andrea Lee (2019) which has aged well.
Bucking the win/loss trend, Taila Santos (18-1) only has one loss on the record which came on her UFC debut. She somehow lost a split decision to Mara Romero Borella (2019) which is not a good look however, she left the judges with zero doubt in her last three fights. She has earnt three unanimous decisions over Molly McCann (2020), Gillian Robertson (2020) and Rozanne Modafferi (2021).
PREDICTION
Calderwood was originally scheduled to fight Alexa Grasso which would have been a banger, but the Mexican got injured opening the door to Santos. This is arguably a tougher fight for Calderwood as Santos’ grappling has looked superb.
Santos has looked solid everywhere and we touted her as the dark horse of the division a while back. We still think she has the makings of a future title challenger, and this is her toughest test so far.
Calderwood will be desperate to keep this on the feet. However, Santos is not only a good grappler but a dangerous striker too so a stand-up battle with the Muay Thai specialist will be very interesting.
That said, the difference will come in the grappling, and we do not think Calderwood’s 63% takedown defence will be good enough against Santos who has taken down every single one of her opponents so far including decent grapplers Robertson and Modafferi who she took down five times.
Calderwood is very tough and will be dangerous on the feet and in the clinch, but we expect Santos to rack up the control time on the ground to take the fight away from the Scot to bag a decision.
Prediction: Santos via Decision
RANI YAHYA VS KYUNG HO KANG
Rani Yayha (27-10-1(1)) is back in action after a positive COVID-19 test postponed this date from UFC Vegas 33 and it is about time as he has been very inactive only fighting three times since 2018. Then, he made it three submissions in a row seizing a heel hook on Luke Sanders but in 2019 he met the kryptonite of Ricky Simon’s wrestling losing a unanimous decision. He then fought to a draw with Enrique Barzola a year later. He waited another year to return, and it was a successful one notching up his 21st submission over Ray Rodriguez.
Kyung Ho Kang (17-8(1)) has also been active and finally returns after 18 months out the game. He was on a roll as well back in 2019 winning three fights on the bounce. He lost a split decision to Ricardo Ramos in 2018 which snapped another three-fight win streak, but he responded with a submission over Teruto Ishihara and split decisions of his own over Brandon Davis and Liu Pingyuan. He has some rust to shake off but when he served mandatory military service in 2014, he returned after four years to submit Guido Cannetti.
PREDICTION
Yayha has never really made any noise in the UFC, but he has only lost twice since 2013. We expect him to approach this fight like all his others and that will be to throw wild looping punches hoping to create a scramble for a takedown.
Yayha has good takedowns and pounces on the back at any opportunity. The key for all his opponents is to maintain the distance, particularly Kang who has a clear striking advantage. He has 11 submissions under his belt, but he cannot afford to tangle with Yayha.
The Brazilian will keep trying to walk him down, close him off against the fence and find a way to get the fight to the floor. If Kang focuses on keeping the distance and not testing his ego in the grappling exchanges, he should walk away with a decision. He is unlikely to avoid Yayha’s clutches for the whole fight but if he can avoid any trouble for the first round, Yayha will tire, and Kang will finish stronger.
Prediction: Kang via Decision
DAVEY GRANT VS ADRIAN YANEZ
Davey Grant (13-5) walks out for his third appearance of the year which is great to see after only fighting three times between 2016 and 2020. In that period, he got submitted by Manny Bermudez (2018), but then replied with a split decision over Grigorii Popov (2019) and a starching of Martin Day (2020). At the start of the year, he took on Johnathan Martinez and earnt his second ‘performance of the night’ bonus is a row with another devastating knockout. He stepped back out in June and earnt another bonus (‘fight of the night’) but got his win streak snapped in his rematch with Marlon Vera via unanimous decision.
Adrian Yanez (14-3) also heads out for the third outing of the year and he is protecting an outstanding seven-fight win streak including six knockouts. A split decision broke up the run of knockouts and it came under the Legacy Fighting Alliance banner against Kyle Estrada (2019). He then finished Brady Huang (2020) on the Contender Series before earning three ‘performance of the night’ bonuses in a row. He buried Victor Rodriguez (2020), Gustavo Lopez (2021) and Randy Costa (2021) in an epic scrap to solidify his top prospect status in the bantamweight division.
PREDICTION
We all know about the threat in Davey’s hands now, but he made a name for himself with his jiu-jitsu and would be wise to mix things up. However, this is a terrible match-up for him on paper at least. He is a wild striker with decent jiu-jitsu, but he is taking on one of the most polished strikers in the division who is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Grant has a chance of clipping Yanez. He swings from the hips which is hard to see but he throws looping left – right hooks leaving his chin exposed. Once Yanez gets a read, that chin will become a massive target and we expect Yanez to find it. His technique is far superior and as long as his defence is on point, he will be able to land at will.
If Grant lands early or decides to grapple, he has a chance, but we expect Yanez’s striking to look a level above and may just hand Grant the first knockout of his career.
Prediction: Yanez via Decision
Value Bet: Yanez via KO/TKO
TUCKER LUTZ VS PAT SABATINI
Tucker Lutz (12-1) fittingly fills in for Gavin Tucker who had to pull out last month and he is on an absolute tear. He lost his professional debut all the way back in 2015 and has since notched up 12 straight wins including two unanimous decisions on the Contender Series in 2020 to cement his place on the roster. He first got past Chase Gibson and then Sherrard Blackledge a couple months later in November. He made his long-awaited debut back in May and piled on the misery making it four losses in a row for Kevin Aguilar with another unanimous decision.
Pat Sabatini (15-3) is itching to go and is very grateful to still be on the card. The former Cage Fury Championships featherweight champion made his UFC debut after burying Jordan Titoni and submitting Jesse Strin last year. He kicked off his campaign with a unanimous decision over Tristan Connelly in April and then cinched up the third heel hook of his career four months later against Jamall Emmers.
PREDICTION
Sabatini will hope Lutz also decides to tangle with him. He has 10 submissions on the record and is very aggressive in the pursuit so, Lutz will be wise to spend the first round out of range.
Lutz should try and keep the whole fight at a distance on the feet as he is the superior striker and has the ability to knock Sabatini out. So, a key factor will be Lutz’s takedown defence although, he can also grapple so may test his ego. We back him to hold his own, but he will be playing with fire, and it will be an unnecessary risk. So, the longer this stays on the feet the more you have to back Lutz.
If he executes a smart game plan he is well worth a punt as he is the underdog, but if he tests his ego or makes one mistake, Sabatini will pounce.
Prediction: Sabatini via Decision
Value Bet: Lutz to win
RAFA GARCIA VS NATAN LEVY
Rafa Garcia (11-2) desperately needs to get his UFC career up and running. He lit up the Combate Americas scene storming to 11-0 with seven submissions, one knockout and three decisions. Two of those decisions led to his chance in the big time - firstly against current UFC fighter Erick Gonzalez (2019) and former UFC fighter Humberto Bandenay (2020). He then stepped up on short notice for a tough debut in the form of Nasrat Haqparast to suffer his first loss which was via unanimous decision, and he returned four months later in July and hit a huge setback losing another unanimous decision to Chris Gruetzemacher.
Natan Levy (6-0) makes his UFC debut after five successful showings for the Legacy Fighting Alliance and an audition on the Contender Series last year. He kicked off his pro career by submitting Marcus Sims ((2018) and Cameron Underhill (2018). He then earnt decisions over Henry Barahona (2019), Nicholas Badis (2019) and Ben Lugo (2020). He then took on Shaheen Santana at the APEX and cinched a slick arm-triangle to get his chance on the big stage.
PREDICTION
Both fighters are decent everywhere, but this is likely to come down to who can employ their strengths better. Levy is a grappler by trade and is also dangerous on the feet. He will throw bombs from his southpaw stance but he can be rather wild whereas Garcia is technically better and should be able to counter when they begin to trade.
Garcia is also clearly no slouch on the ground with seven submissions in the bank, but Levy’s wrestling and athleticism should allow him to subdue Garcia. He also the bigger man and will be very confident in the grappling exchanges.
Overall, we expect this to be very competitive and we should see a mixture of striking and grappling. It is hard to call, but as we feel this will go to a decision, Garcia’s suspect gas tank swings this slightly in Levy’s favour.
Prediction: Levy via Decision
LOMA LOOKBOONMEE VS LUPITA GODINEZ
The first Thai fighter to grace the UFC Loma Lookboonmee (6-2) heads out for her fifth UFC fight hoping to go 4-1. Let’s hope she is the first of many Thai fighters as who does not like a traditional Muay Thai skill set? She snuck past Aleksandra Albu (2019) with a split decision on her debut but then lost a unanimous decision to the fellow Muay Thai specialist and UFC veteran Angela Hill (2020). She then flew out to Fight Island later that year and earnt her own unanimous decision over Jinh Yu Frey and followed it up with another over Sam Hughes back in May this year.
Lupita Godinez (6-2) is back again for her fourth outing of the year filling in for Cheyanne Buys. She lost a very close split decision to Jessica Penne on her debut back in April but bounced back with a ruthless submission over Silvana Gomez Juarez in October. She then made the quickest turnaround in modern UFC history turning up a week later at UFC Fight Night 195. She moved up a weight class and replaced Sijara Eubanks to fight Luana Carolina who rallied after the first round to earn a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
Although stepping up on short notice did not work for Godinez last time, she is fighting in her natural strawweight class. We knew her route to victory against Carolina was to utilise her grappling and she started the fight well but the Brazilian’s significant size advantage paid dividends allowing her to fend Godinez off and pepper her from range.
This is exactly what Lookboonmee needs to do as the superior striker. She can grapple as we saw against Hughes who she took down four times. However, she got her down using her Muay Thai trips from the clinch which were a thing of beauty, but Godinez will not stall around in the clinch.
We expect Godinez to shoot in for blast doubles and single leg takedowns to avoid the clinch. There will inevitably be some sort of tie up which will be interesting to see Godinez’s power vs Lookboonmee’s technique. However, we expect the Mexican’s explosiveness and power to get Lookboonmee down and when the fight does hit the mat, Godinez has the strength and technique to keep her there.
Lookboonmee will make this competitive especially as her wrestling is improving. However, Godinez will not respect her knockout power and feel confident to shoot in, grab a hold of her and take her down. She will have to watch out for the Thai knees, but we are backing Godinez’s grappling to seal the deal and may just wrap it up with a submission.
Prediction: Godinez via Decision
Value Bet: Godinez via Submission
FARES ZIAM VS TERRANCE MCKINNEY
After losing his UFC debut on Fight Island at UFC 242, Fares Ziam (12-3) has bounced back superbly with a couple hard-fought decisions. Don Madge gave him the miserable welcome earning a unanimous decision to snap a five-fight win streak, but he returned a year later in October last year to earn a unanimous decision over Jamie Mullarkey which continues to age well. He then followed that up in June this year with a majority decision over Luigi Vendramini to regain some momentum.
Terrance McKinney (11-3) is sitting on some red-hot momentum himself and put the lightweights on notice with a spectacular seven-second knockout of Matt Frevola. He blasted him with a perfect 1-2 straight down the pipe which stretched a run of three first-round knockouts all this year. He finished Dedrek Sanders for Strike Hard Productions and Luiz Antonio Lobo Gavinho and Michael Irizarry for the Legacy Fighting Alliance to respond to two big losses – a flying knee knockout from Sean Woodson and triangle from Darrick Minner..
PREDICTION
Ziam earnt his reputation as a striker and became a K-1 kickboxing champion at just 18 years old, but we saw his judo and jiu-jitsu on display in the Mullarkey fight allowing him to stifle the Aussie and offload his own offence.
It will be interesting to see if he decides to utilise his grappling as a plan of attack as McKinney possesses devastating knockout power. The Washington native is also a good grappler but we expect him to rely on his striking so if Ziam wants to turn this into a kickboxing contest, we are going to be in for a show.
Ziam will boast a slight height and reach advantage as well as the technique advantage, but it will count for nothing if he gets clipped. There is more room for error for McKinney especially as Ziam does not have the same one-hitter-quitter power so he can afford to step into range and swing for the fences.
If Ziam can be patient, stay at range while attacking McKinney’s legs with kicks he can disable his power, sap the energy bar and frustrate him into making a mistake. The Frenchman has the experience and poise to earn a decision, but one mistake and it’s lights out.
Prediction: McKinney via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Ziam via Decision
LUANA PINHEIRO VS SAM HUGHES
Luana Pinheiro (9-1) was expected to take on Jessica Penne for her second UFC cap, but old habits die hard as the veteran was forced out of another fight. Thankfully the Brazilian is still on the card as she is an exciting talent coming off seven first round finishes including four submissions and two knockouts. Those knockouts were the first of her career and the first one came in 2019 cleaning up Helen Harper and the second came on the Contender Series where she ran through Stephanie Frausto. That earnt her a debut against Randa Markos and it did not quite go to plan after Markos got disqualified for landing an illegal upkick.
Sam Hughes (5-3) has lost three of her last four, but she has come up against some formidable opponents. She got submitted in her second fight of 2020 by Vanessa Demopoulos (Legacy Fighting Alliance) who is now in the UFC, bounced back with a submission of her own over Danielle Hindley (LFA) but then ran into UFC veteran Tecia Torres. Hughes stepped in late for Angela Hill and Torres decided to switch on beast mode to collect her first knockout. Hughes lost again back in May getting outclassed by Loma Lookboonmee so there is a lot at stake here for Hughes facing a three-fight skid.
PREDICTION
Pinheiro is the smaller fighter and will be giving up two inches in reach and three in height, but she boasts that rare finishing ability for a strawweight. She is a grappler by trade as a black belt in judo, brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and she will be aggressive on the ground as well as on the feet.
Hughes is confident her wrestling will be enough to counter Pinheiro’s skills, but if they tangle up, we back the Brazilian’s technique, power and explosiveness to win the exchanges. She also has the speed on the feet to allow her to tag Hughes with a variety of kicks and punches.
Hughes’s best chance is to weather the early storm and test the gas tank of Pinheiro. However, she is taking the fight on short notice and the Brazilian has had more time to prepare.
Hughes is underrated and considering she is a massive underdog, she is worth a small punt, but we are backing the Brazilian who has the ability to overwhelm Hughes on the feet and on the mat.