UFC Fight Night 197 - Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Night 197? Saturday 13th November, 2021 - 19:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 197? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 197? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Fight Night 197 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 197? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
MAX HOLLOWAY VS YAIR RODRIGUEZ
Thankfully this fight is back on after Max Holloway (22-6) picked up an injury prior to UFC on ESPN 26 back in July. Holloway has opted to keep active rather than wait for a third title fight with Alexander Volkanovski who took the strap off him and then defended it 19 months later in July last year. They were both close fights and very few fighters other than Holloway would be granted a third opportunity. Since their rematch, Holloway took on Calvin Kattar in January and put on a ‘Fight of the Night’ and beating racking up the record of the most significant strikes landed in a fight. Kattar is one of the best boxers in the division, but Holloway made him look like an amateur, it was an incredible performance.
Yair Rodriguez (13-2(1)) has not fought for over two years which frustratingly, has been the theme of his UFC career. Whether it’s injury, illness of beef with the UFC, we have been deprived of seeing one of the most exciting strikers in the UFC. This time, it was a USADA ban for failing to appear for a drugs test which kept him out for six months. His last fight was his rematch with Jeremy Stephens after an eye poke caused an end to the first fight just 15 seconds in. Stephens suffered a bad poke and then got outclassed in the rematch.
PREDICTION
This is going to be a stand-up spectacle and although Rodriguez is one of the best strikers in the division, he is a colossal underdog. That is because Holloway is one of the best boxers on the entire roster and is made for five rounders with relentless volume and accuracy that simply overwhelms opponents.
The only fighters he has lost to recently were Volkanovski and Dustin Poirier. The key to their victories was that they went toe-to-toe with Holloway’s volume, not backing down from any exchange and keeping up an insane tempo for 25 minutes. Rodriguez will not bring the same volume and does not have the cardio but where he can match them is to start quickly.
Holloway usually has a passive first round where he downloads the data to get a read and then accelerate his volume and accuracy as the fight goes on. So, Rodriguez has to start offloading his arsenal of kicks and punches from range before Holloway calculates the territory.
The trouble is, is that Holloway also starts slow. That said, he will bring skills to the table that Holloway has not seen before which is rare and that is his movement, awkward elbows, knees and range of kicks he can land from a variety of angles. He can catch Holloway but another string to the Hawaiian’s bow is that he has a granite chin.
We expect Holloway to pull off a vintage performance, overwhelm Rodriguez and may even pull off a late finish if he fatigues. If we get into the championship rounds and the Mexican is chasing the fight, he is likely to expel a lot of energy hunting the knockout.
We feel the Hawaiian will have to make a huge mistake to lose this but when the odds are stacked this much against someone of Rodriguez’s calibre, he is the only smart bet. That or a knockout in the fifth round for Holloway.
Prediction: Holloway via Decision
Value Bet: Rodriguez to win
BEN ROTHWELL VS MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA
Ben Rothwell (39-13) finally makes his way to the APEX after Philipe Lins pulled out of their fight three times – at UFC Fight Night 187, UFC on ESPN 24 and UFC Fight Night 188. He was not that excited about fighting him anyway and despite Lins being on the same card (for now) he has another opponent and hopes to make it two-in-a-row after losing a unanimous decision to Marcin Tybura a year ago. He responded by submitting Chris Barnett who filled in for Lins and announced himself with that spectacular spinning hook kick last week at UFC 268.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (18-7-1) rolls out for his 13th UFC fight maintaining a consecutive win-loss record since his second appearance in the octagon. At least he is becoming more active. He had one fight in 2018 winning a unanimous decision over Adam Wieczorek and one in 2019 getting submitted by Stefan Struve. However, he has had three fights since, knocking out Ben Sosoli, unsurprisingly getting submitted by Alexander Romanov and now he is coming off a unanimous decision over Maurice Greene back in May.
PREDICTION
De Lima gets submitted by anyone with half-decent jiu-jitsu despite being a black belt. We are not sure who awarded that belt with his last five losses all coming via a sub and he is also due a loss considering he won his last fight. We all know MMA is not that straight forward but in this case, it is more than likely.
De Lima is a much better striker with speed, power and excellent Muay Thai. However, this is a terrible match-up as the last time Rothwell got knocked out was in 2009 by Cain Velasquez. He is also great at closing the distance and making the fight dirty.
We expect Rothwell to utilise his height and reach advantage to grab a hold of the Brazilian, clinch up and put his weight to use by wearing de Lima down against the fence. If he can tire him out, a submission will be waiting for him and Rothwell will not even need to hit the mat to cinch up a guillotine choke.
Prediction: Rothwell via Submission
FELICIA SPENCER VS LEAH LETSON
Felicia Spencer (8-3) has had five UFC fights in the featherweight division so has now fought everyone in the division. She submitted Megan Anderson (2019) on her debut, lost a valiant unanimous decision to Cris Cyborg (2019) and bounced back with a dominant mauling and TKO over Zarah Fairn Dos Santos. She was then awarded a title fight with the female ‘GOAT’ losing another unanimous decision but going to decisions with Amanda Nunes (2020) and Cris Cyborg is practically a win for any other featherweight. However, Spencer is coming off a more disappointing loss for her standards losing a split decision to Norma Dumont back in May.
We first saw Leah Letson (5-1) on The Ultimate Fighter Heavy Hitters season back in 2018 where she earnt a unanimous decision over Bea Malecki to advance to the semi’s only to get knocked out by the eventual winner Macy Chiasson in the first round. She took on fellow contestant Julija Stoliarenko in the finale and squeaked out a split decision. However, she has not laced up the gloves since. She had a couple fights fall through in 2019 suffering some serious health issues including digestive and thyroid problems but now she is finally able to step in the cage.
PREDICTION
Letson has been through a lot and we are not sure she is even 100% still but we are just happy to see her perform again. The Air Force veteran showed a lot of promise on The Ultimate Fighter, she is well-rounded, very tough and will have the size advantage over Spencer.
Letson is a decent fighter, but this is a harsh welcome back to the UFC especially after a three-year layoff. Spencer is good everywhere and has shared 40 minutes with two of the best female fighters of all time.
Spencer’s speed and taekwondo background should give her the edge on the feet and her black belt in jiu-jitsu will give her all the confidence on the ground. Considering the unknowns of how much Letson has improved and the huge odds, Letson grinding out a decision with her wrestling is the value bet, but on paper, everything points to a Spencer win.
Prediction: Spencer via Decision
Value Bet: Letson via Decision
MIGUEL BAEZA VS KHAOS WILLIAMS
Miguel Baeza (10-1) is coming off that hugely deflating loss against Santiago Ponzinibbio in June. He rocketed up the welterweight ranks after three ruthless finishes in his first three UFC fights. He chopped down and TKO’d Hector Aldana (2019) on his debut, starched Matt Brown (2020) and then threw Takashi Sato (2020) around before cinching a beautiful arm-triangle choke. He was then handed Santiago Ponzinibbio who had not won since 2018 after a knockout loss on his comeback fight but the Argentinian rallied to pull off a unanimous decision win handing Baeza the first loss of his promising career.
Khaos Williams (12-2) also suffered a deflating unanimous decision loss recently. He took on Michel Pereira in December last year riding an eight-fight win streak which included a dream start to his UFC career. He absolutely smoked Alex Morono and Abdul Razak Alhassan to notch the fifth first-round knockout of his career. Pereira snapped the win streak with a unanimous decision, but Williams is already back on track after sealing a unanimous decision of his own against Matt Semelsberger in June.
PREDICTION
This is a mouth-watering match-up and destined to be absolute fireworks. Williams has the touch of death in his hands and Baeza also possesses venomous power with devastating leg kicks.
This will really depend on how Baeza decides to attack. If he decides to trade on the feet, a knockout is likely either way. If he decides to grapple and show off his jiu-jitsu, he has an easy path to victory as long as he defends his chin while shooting in.
Baeza’s only weakness seems to be his defence and he cannot afford to eat any clean shots from Williams. Williams can also be technical with a strong jab and rip to the body so the Brazilian has to approach this carefully.
Baeza needs to be unpredictable and attack Williams’ legs with his thunderous kicks and counter with his savage looping hooks from range. Then, he can shoot in for a takedown. If he gets the fight to the floor, we should see his black belt skills seal another submission.
Overall, a knockout either way and a Baeza submission is most likely. Williams is the value bet as the underdog especially as we expect the majority of this fight to play out on the feet, but Baeza has more tools.
Prediction: Baeza via Submission
Value Bet: Williams via KO/TKO
YADONG SONG VS JULIO ARCE
Yadong Song (17-5-1(1)) responded well to the first loss in his last 10 fights. He was coming off his first six UFC bouts which included a draw against Cody Stamann (2019) and was quite lucky especially after landing an illegal knee in the first round. He then met Marlon Vera (2020) and got the nod from all three judges to earn a unanimous decision, but it was a lot closer fight than the scorecards suggested. He then fell on the wrong side of a unanimous decision against Kyler Phillips (2021) but bounced back by adding another solid name to the record by earning a split decision over Casey Kenney back in August.
We finally saw Julio Arce (17-4) return to action after 19 months out and he made a statement at the APEX. He dropped down to bantamweight and TKO’d Andre Ewell back in July. It was a great performance considering the time off and new division especially after losing two of his last three fights. He lost a split decision to Sheymon Moraes (2018), responded with a superb head kick knockout over Julian Erosa (2019) but then dropped another split decision, this time against Hakeem Dawodu (2019).
PREDICTION
This is a great fight to kick off the main card. Arce is the slightly bigger man moving down from 145 lbs but Song is more explosive and powerful. Song looked more assured in his fight with Kenney and his movement was on point. He is also still only 23 years old and has a lot more potential to fill with the help of Team Alpha Male.
Arce is 32 but he also has a lot more to offer and we could see the best out of him at bantamweight. We expect an electric battle on the feet with Arce looking to force the pressure and maintain the volume for three rounds.
Song will also be aggressive and also wait to counter uncorking his power at any opportunity. He has knockout power and is very tough but cannot afford to eat many shots as Arce is also more than capable of a knockout.
That said, they are both durable which should create a three-round war. It will be close, but we are backing Song to look even better focusing on his movement and land more significant strikes to sway the judges. He also has a knack of winning close fights whereas Arce’s two UFC losses have been via split decision.
Arce is a value bet as the underdog especially if he can fire off his 1-2 and mix in some takedowns to break the momentum of Song.
Prediction: Song via Decision
Value Bet: Arce via Decision
THIAGO MOISES VS JOEL ALVAREZ
Thiago Moises (15-5) strung a third impressive win together back in February earning a unanimous decision over Alexander Hernandez adding to his unanimous decision over Bobby Green and submission over Michael Johnson (2020). Those wins came in response to losing another unanimous decision to Damir Ismagulov (2019) but is coming off a more humbling loss back in July. He met the rampaging Islam Makhachev who ruthlessly submitted the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. He now has the chance to bounce back against a different kind of grappler.
Joel Alvarez (18-2) is a submission artist with 16 of his 18 wins coming via submission. His other two wins have come via knockout, the latest of which earnt him his first UFC win. He TKO’d Danilo Belluardo (2019) after losing his debut which was also a unanimous decision loss to Ismagulov. However, he has responded with three straight wins including submissions over Joe Duffy and Alexander Yakovlev (2020).
PREDICTION
Alvarez is a very talented and exciting fighter, and he has been handed a very tough test here. Moises is experienced, extremely well-rounded and importantly he is also a high-level black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu which will cancel out Alvarez’s main strength.
Alvarez is a big lightweight standing at 6’3” with a 77-inch reach and will be boasting a seven-inch reach four-inch height advantage over Moises. This can also help on the floor, but we cannot see him submitting Moises. He is not going to maul him with his wrestling like Makhachev did and the Brazilian is too savvy to get caught especially in top position.
So, the majority of this could play out on the feet where Alvarez’s reach and power will be dangerous. However, Moises is a better striker and has shared the cage with Johnson and Green who are levels above Alvarez when it comes to striking.
We are leaning towards a Moises decision with his experience making the difference, but Alvarez is worth a small punt as a sizeable underdog.
Prediction: Moises via Decision
Value Bet: Alvarez to win
CYNTHIA CALVILLO VS ANDREA LEE LOWDOWN
Cynthia Calvillo (9-3-1) steps in for Jessica Eye who was actually her last win. It was a very impressive win moving up to flyweight to take on the larger and more experienced former title challenger. She sealed four takedowns proving her technique more than made up for the weight disadvantage and it fast tracked her right up the division. So, she was handed perennial top contender Katlyn Chookagian but had no answer for her point striking losing a unanimous decision. She then got paired up with Jessica Andrade a year later which turned out to be a mismatch with the Brazilian putting Calvillo away in the first round with a TKO.
Andrea Lee (12-5) was on her own skid which broke up an impressive run of seven straight wins. They included three UFC wins and unanimous decisions over Veronica Macedo, Ashlee Evans-Smith and Montana De La Rosa. However, she went on to lose split decisions to Joanne Calderwood and Lauren Murphy before a more convincing unanimous decision to Roxanne Modafferi. However, she is coming off a much better performance submitting Antonina Shevchenko back in May at UFC 262.
PREDICTION
These ladies are extremely well-rounded, and it will be a very competitive scrap. We expect them to exchange takedowns, strikes and spend chunks of the fight in the clinch.
Lee is a quality grappler, but if Calvillo employs a game plan of wrestling, she can subdue her long enough to bag the rounds. However, her last two fights, she was too tentative and did not threaten a takedown enough against Chookagian and Andrade.
If Calvillo is hesitant and relies on her hands, Lee will pick her apart and conduct the fight. This is very tough to call and if Calvillo adopts a better strategy, we back her to grind out a decision but Lee is the value bet as the underdog,
Prediction: Calvillo via Decision
Value Bet: Lee via Decision
MARC DIAKIESE VS RAFAEL ALVES
Marc Diakiese (14-4) finally returns for his first fight since July last year. It was on Fight Island for UFC Fight Night 172 and unfortunately for him, it was against Rafael Fiziev who outclassed him to a unanimous decision. That made it four losses in his last six and although we feel Diakiese has never quite lived up to his potential, he has fought absolute studs. He suffered a three-fight skid losing a split decision to Drakkar Klose (2017), getting submitted by Dan Hooker (2017) and a unanimous decision to Nasrat Haqparast (2018). He did bounce back with unanimous decisions over Joe Duffy (2019) and Lando Vannata (2019) but another loss here will be a huge setback.
Rafael Alves (19-10) is another dangerous man with 14 finishes (seven knockouts and seven submissions) out of his 19 wins. One of those submissions earnt him a UFC contract when he choked out Alejandro Flores Garcia on the Contender Series last year. He was then handed a harsh match-up for his debut after fights with Mike Trizano and Pat Sabatini were cancelled. He met Damir Ismagulov who extended his staggering 18-fight win streak with a unanimous decision back in May.
PREDICTION
There are a lot of exciting fights on the card, but this could easily be the ‘fight of the night’. Diakiese is one of the most electric strikers on the entire roster and is also very durable having never been knocked out.
Alves is extremely aggressive and explosive and hunts the submission as aggressively as the knockout. He managed to knock Ismagulov down but that is simply a sign of how dangerous he is in the first round.
As long as Diakiese gets into the second round, we back his skills and experience to bag rounds two and three. He is a better striker and training at the Allstars Gym with the likes of Alexander Gustafsson and Khamzat Chimaev will only make him a better fighter.
Prediction: Diakiese via Decision
KENNEDY NZECHUKWU VS DA UN JUNG
Since Kennedy Nzechukwu’s (9-1) odd UFC debut in 2019 when he kept grabbing the cage and poking Paul Craig’s eye who eventually submitted him, he has looked a lot more at home in the big time. He bounced back from the first loss of his career with a unanimous decision over Darko Stosic with the help of two deducted points for nut shots and then earnt a ‘fight of the night’ and ‘performance of the night’ bonus against Carlos Ulberg and Danilo Marques knocking them both out this year.
Da Un Jung (14-2-1) is unbeaten in his last 14 fights which includes four UFC fights. He also made his debut in 2019 and submitted Khadis Ibragimov in China. He then displayed the knockout power that got him to the UFC by burying Mike Rodriguez in the first round four months later. He then fought to a draw with the veteran Sam Alvey in his only fight of 2020 and returned in April this year against William Knight where he earnt the second unanimous decision of his career.
PREDICTION
This will come down to who can control the distance. It will begin to play out on the feet and considering their power, a knockout can occur in any round. They are a similar height, but Nzechukwu will boast a five-inch reach advantage.
He will look to uncork his straight left hand, tagging Jung at the end of his range and he needs to maintain that distance for as long as possible. Jung has thudding knockout power and is extremely dangerous in the pocket.
The stand-up battle will be very interesting, but Jung has the tools to change the course of the fight. He has good takedowns and the strength to subdue Nzechukwu. Considering the Nigerian’s takedown defence, Jung will be wise to tie him up quickly and play it safe.
However, Marques employed a similar game plan, but Nzechukwu had the cardio to find the knockout in the third round. So, Jung needs to be on top of him for three rounds unless he can find a knockout of his own.
Jung does not have any impressive names on the record yet, but we back his grappling to get the job done. He will also be a knockout threat whenever they are in the pocket and when they break from the clinch. Jung has a solid chin and has never been knocked out but if the odds continue to swell in his favour, a Nzechukwu knockout is great value.