UFC 268 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC 268? Sunday 7th November, 2021 - 00:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 268? Madison Square Garden, New York (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 268? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 268
What channel is UFC 268 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC 268? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
KAMARU USMAN VS COLBY COVINGTON
The pound-for-pound king Kamaru Usman (19-1) headlines Madison Square Garden for his fifth title defence and it is great to see a UFC champion so active. It is very rare these days, but you can see why he keeps stepping back in that cage because he is getting better and better. He worked his way to the welterweight title with his wrestling which did not earn him many fans. However, his stand-up war and TKO over the villain Colby Covington in December 2019 got people on board. He then played it safe against Jorge Masvidal who took the fight on short notice which got people sipping the ‘haterade’ again, but his last two performances have solidified him as one of the most impressive champions in the UFC. He has proven his striking is a threat to anyone knocking out Gilbert Burns and then pulling off arguably the most impressive performance of the year in knocking Masvidal out cold in their rematch back in April.
Like Usman, Colby Covington (16-2) stormed up the welterweight ranks with his wrestling and relentless pace. The champ snapped a dominant run of seven fights including unanimous decisions over Demian Maia, Rafael dos Anjos and Robbie Lawler. After that humbling and hard-fought loss, Covington has only fought once and that was another dominant display over Tyron Woodley. It was a typically limp display from the former champion, but Covington would not have given him a choice anyway and ended up breaking his rib in the fifth round.
PREDICTION
Usman’s striking has come on leaps and bounds but it is still very basic. His straight right hand is as crisp as it gets, and it now has the reputation of one-punch knockout power.
That power was the difference in their first fight. The theme of our breakdown for their first meeting was how evenly match they were. Their fighting style, background, cardio, record and even their striking and grappling stats. On paper, it was the most evenly-matched title fight we have seen in the UFC and that is how the fight played out.
Their wrestling cancelled each other out forcing a stand-up battle and it was a back-and-forth war. Usman landed 175 out of 360 significant strikes and Covington landed 143 out of his 395 thrown. Like all Covington fights, he threw more volume, but Usman was more accurate and more impactful landing two knockdowns. He attacked the body and that power accumulated until he broke Covington’s jaw in the fifth round.
Covington did not respect Usman’s power and we do not expect him to stand and trade for five rounds again. He will maintain his suffocating volume, but we may see him level change in between combinations for a takedown. He will utilise this to sway the judges as he is unlikely to keep Usman down even if he can get him there.
Covington’s best weapon will be the element of surprise. As we saw with Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier. Cormier is the better wrestler, but Jones took him down easily as Cormier did not see it coming.
Covington is still Usman’s biggest threat to the title at the moment and considering the odds, he is worth a punt as we can see a tight decision. However, Usman is too smart to play the same game and be unprepared for a different strategy from Covington.
After knocking Masvidal out, we can see Usman getting arrogant with his hands, thinking he is a better striker than he is. If he gets complacent, Covington can capitalize and catch him with a takedown or head kick.
We are backing Usman, but we think this will go to the bell this time as they will not risk absorbing as much damage as their last fight. This should be another exciting scrap and we should see the best version of Covington which will create another spectacle.
Prediction: Usman via Decision
Value Bet: Covington via Decision
ROSE NAMAJUNAS VS WEILI ZHANG
Rose Namajunas (10-4) is back on her throne after snapping Weili Zhang’s 21-fight win streak with an effortless head kick in the first round. You can tell she was completely on that night, full of eery determination and confidence. The same could not be said for Zhang who seems a little off and ate the consequences. Namajunas now prepares for her third rematch for the strawweight strap which may be a good omen as she was superb against Joanna Jedrzejczyk beating her twice in a row and outclassed Jessica Andrade after getting pile-drived onto her head.
Weili Zhang (21-2) seemed off in the sense that she did not look focused and just seemed happy to be there as the champion. She had the pressure of China on her shoulders and looked like a little schoolgirl wanting an autograph from Namajunas as they touched gloves. Meanwhile, Namajunas was cold as ice muttering to herself that she was the best. Zhang paid for it and now needs to get into the same mindset that steamrolled through Tecia Torres, Andrade and coming through that war and best female fight of all time with Jedrzejczyk.
PREDICTION
Zhang’s loss will feel like the first of her career. Her previous loss was her first professional fight eight years ago and it is a feeling she had forgotten. She blitzed her way to the title in a stacked division and then suffered a humiliating defeat so this will be the biggest test of her character.
Their first fight barely got going and we have no doubt that this will be more competitive, and we expect to see a thrilling battle between two of the most skilled boxers in the UFC. They should approach this the same way, with Namajunas constantly moving, circling and stepping in to throw combinations and Zhang looking to throw venom in all limbs.
Zhang is naturally very aggressive so it will be interesting to see if she displays any hesitancy. She needs to control the centre of the octagon, cut Namajunas off, close the distance and offload her kicks and punches. She cannot afford to watch and react to Namajunas as the champion is very clever in setting up traps.
Her knockout was a thing of beauty using her footwork to lure Zhang in to defend a low right kick but went up with a left head kick with zero telegraph. It was a shock to Zhang in every way, but you know she will be better prepared now.
She has the skill and power to win the stand-up battle, but it will depend on where her head is at after that loss. Namajunas on the other hand is more confident than ever and will be working on planning more traps with Trevor Wittman.
We expect this to go into the championship rounds at least and the longer it will go on, the more you have to favour Zhang. Her power will build up and as Namajunas does not throw as much volume as Jedrzejczyk, she may find herself chasing the fight and opening herself up as she hunts a finish.
This fight could steal the show and if the fight hits the deck, their ground skills will keep us on the edge of our seats, but we expect five rounds of elite striking. Unless Zhang can control the range, we are leaning towards Namajunas but Zhang is the shout as the underdog.
Prediction: Namajunas via Decision
Value Bet: Zhang via Decision
SHANE BURGOS VS BILLY QUARANTILLO
Shane Burgos (13-3) emerges after that battering he took from Edson Barboza back in May. He went toe-to-toe with one of the most polished strikers in the division and he ate everything Barboza dished out until one flash of a right hand on the temple forced Burgos’ body to shut a couple seconds after it detonated forcing him to stumble into the fence. It was a peculiar knockout and he showed incredible toughness but that made it two losses in a row for Burgos. He lost a unanimous decision in another ‘fight of the night’ against Josh Emmett in his only fight last year and now he is hungry to get some more fights in and get back in the win column.
Billy Quarantillo (16-3) is also coming off a ‘fight of the night’ bonus and fell on the right side of one earning a brilliant TKO over Gabriel Benitez. It was a great fight back in July and it came in response to losing his first UFC fight which snapped an eight-fight win streak. Gavin Tucker dented Quarantillo’s 2020 with a unanimous decision after earning a unanimous decision of his own against Spike Carlyle and knocking out Kyle Nelson earlier in the year.
PREDICTION
We just have to look at their average significant strikes per minute to know we are in for a barnburner here. They both average over seven which is extremely high and they also absorb a lot. Quarantillo eats 4.3 per minute but Burgos eats an unsettling 6.1. He has a granite chin and is incredibly tough but when you absorb damage from Barboza for three rounds, there is only so much punishment the body can take.
Quarantillo does not have the power or speed of Barboza, but if Burgos continues to keep his head still, he will be in trouble. Quarantillo will put on a furious pace for 15 minutes, but we expect him to call upon his grappling.
Quarantillo will land, but Burgos will walk him down like a zombie and begin to land his own shots. Burgos will have the size and power advantage, so Quarantillo will be wise to get this to the mat before he takes too much damage.
Quarantillo is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu but we are backing Burgos’ grappling and takedown defence to keep the fight on the feet long enough to seal a decision or late knockout.
Prediction: Burgos via KO/TKO
FRANKIE EDGAR VS MARLON VERA
February 2007, was Frankie Edgar’s (24-9-1) UFC debut and he makes the short trip to Madison Square Garden for his 29th walk to the octagon but what is more impressive is that he continues to fight top ranked guys. He has finally started to decline and we saw him get knocked out for the first time in 2018 by Brian Ortega. Since then, he earnt a unanimous decision over Cub Swanson but then lost a unanimous decision to Max Holloway and then got knocked out again by the Korean Zombie (2019). He showed glimpses of the olf Frankie squaking a split decision over Pedro Munhoz (2020) but he is coming off another stiffening knockout back in February. He took everything all the beats in the lightweight had to offer back in the day, but father time has finally caught up with him getting flatlined by a flying Cory Sandhagen knee.
Marlon Vera (17-7-1) is the next lion sharing the cage with the legend. He stormed his way up the ranks with an excellent five-fight win streak capped off by a mauling TKO over Andre Ewell in 2019 however, he has gone 2-2 since. He lost a unanimous decision to Song Yadong but he arguably won that. He then popped the Sean O’Malley hype downing him in first round but then ran into another legend dropping into the bantamweight waters in Jose Aldo. He got outclassed in a unanimous decision, but he is coming off a ‘fight of the night’ dub over Davey Grant in June.
PREDICTION
Edgar continues his twilight quest at bantamweight and you could say this has been his division all along but it is too late in his career and the evolution curve has swung too far away from him to make a title challenge.
Edgar will bring the same pace, volume and level changes but it may not be enough against Vera who is extremely well-rounded. Vera is a beast on the mat and continues to improve on the feet with power in his hands so Edgar’s chin will be tested.
If Edgar’s chin holds up, we can see him subdue Vera for three rounds with his wrestling. He will not be able to finish Vera, but it may be enough to earn a vintage decision. However, we expect Vera’s youth and power to be enough against the ageing Edgar.
Leg kicks, punches from range and elbows in the clinch will slow Edgar down and we can see his chin giving way again but we are leaning towards a Vera decision.
Prediction: Vera via Decision
Value Bet: Edgar via Decision
JUSTIN GAETHJE VS MICHAEL CHANDLER
It is about time Justin Gaethje (22-3) laced the gloves back up. He has been left in the cold after his title fight dismantlement a year ago. It was a well-earned title shot against Khabib Nurmagomedov which turned out to be the Russian’s swansong and wrote off in still with a second-round triangle choke. With the help of Trevor Wittman, Gaethje had clearly harnessed his temperament to make the most out of his skillset as we saw in his win streak. He knocked out James Vick (2018), Edson Barboza (2019), Donald Cerrone (2019) and dished out the biggest beating Tony Ferguson (2020) had ever received in his career. He collected four fight bonuses in the process and now finally gets to remind everyone those performance are not a distant memory.
Michael Chandler (22-6) is also coming off a title fight loss although it was not to the lightweight ‘GOAT’. He took on Charles Oliveira for the vacant title which he earnt after knocking out Dan Hooker back in January last year. It was the perfect debut which fast tracked him to a title shot as he was only coming off two Bellator wins. That said, they were two ruthless knockouts over Sidney Outlaw (2019) and Benson Henderson (2020). His second UFC appearance did not go his way getting stung by a perfect right hand from the Brazilian in an exciting back and forth scrap but he has a great chance to keep his title hopes alive here.
PREDICTION
What a fight. We have two experienced powerhouses from a wrestling background with ferocious knockout power. Gaethje has three inches in height over Chandler but only one inch in reach so their distance control will be dictated by their movement and timing.
These are elements Gaethje did not consider until after his wars with Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier, but now he is a cerebral assassin. He does not rely on his high-level wrestling and he will call upon his limbs to put Chandler away.
Chandler also prefers his hands these days but if either of them shoot in, it will be him. Chandler will also back his striking especially as he will have a speed advantage. He will utilize his explosiveness to burst in the pocket and throw heat towards Gaethje’s jaw.
Gaethje will be completely undeterred as he has been in wars with some of the best strikers in the division and with Wittman, he will execute a strategy instead of simply exchanging leather.
That strategy will begin with leg kicks. He has some of the most powerful kicks in the division and it will only take a few to disable Chandler but he will have to expect his trademarked monster overhand right to fly over as a counter.
It is even more important for Gaethje to be composed here especially as he is not a big fan of Chandler. He needs to be patient with his attacks as Chandler is more athletic and can cover the distance in a flash to unleash. If Gaethje can land a few early leg kicks without getting hit, the fight will swing in his favour.
Chandler needs to maintain volume to prevent Gaethje dictating the tempo as long as he keeps out of range. He cannot stay in the pocket for long as the exchanges are going to be dynamite where Gaethje’s power and battle-hardened style will wreak havoc.
Considering Chandler’s last five fights have ended via knockout and Gaethje does not know what a decision is, another finish is likely. We are backing Gaethje with the help of Wittman and his training partner Kamaru Usman to nullify Chandler’s strengths and employ his own to be the last man standing but Chandler is the value bet if he remains a significant underdog.
Prediction: Gaethje via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Chandler via Decision
ALEX PEREIRA VS ANDREAS MICHAILIDIS
The man famous for knocking out Israel Adesanya, Alex Pereira (3-1) makes his entrance to the UFC. The decorated kickboxer is still duking it out in the ring and is coming off a fight for Glory back in September. He was defending his light heavyweight title against Artem Vakhitov but lost the rematch via unanimous decision. While he has been compiling his impressive kickboxing record of 33-7, he has dipped his toe in the MMA waters. He suffered a submission loss on his professional debut for Jungle Fight in 2015. Responded with two TKO’s for the promotion the following year and did not have another MMA fight until last year when he starched Thomas Powell for the Legacy Fighting Alliance.
Andreas Michailidis (13-4) welcomes him to the big time, and he is coming off his first UFC win. He made his debut last year up at light heavyweight and took a beating from Modestas Bukauskas unable to make it to the second round. He then dropped down to his natural weight class at 185 lbs and picked up a rare but comfortable decision over KB Bhullar.
PREDICTION
It was a solid performance from Michailidis but a unanimous decision over KB Bhullar is not going to worry the middleweight division. In fairness, nothing will worry Pereira, particularly on the feet so Michailidis needs to get this fight to the floor.
The Greek is a good striker himself but trading with an accomplished kickboxer with a four-inch height and reach advantage is a recipe for disaster. Pereira also has venomous power so unless Michailidis can take him down, we fully expect a knockout.
Pereira has brilliant footwork and he will need to constantly move to avoid the takedown. He has also been training with the new light heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira and has focused solely on his grappling and takedown defence which is perfect preparation.
A Michailidis submission is worth a small punt considering the odds, but we expect the Brazilian’s size, speed and power to create the space to find a lethal knockout.
Prediction: Pereira via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Michailidis via Submission
AL IAQUINTA VS BOBBY GREEN
We remember the days when Al Iaquinta (14-6-1) was active. It was a fun time six-seven years ago putting on shows and collecting dubs. In 2014, he knocked out Rodrigo Damm and Ross Pearson. The following year he knocked out Joe Lauzon and earnt a split decision over Jorge Masvidal. Real estate and beef with the UFC brass have limited him to only fighting five times since. He knocked out Diego Sanchez in 2017, had that unforgettable title fight with Khabib Nurmagomedov losing a unanimous decision in 2018. He collected his own unanimous decision over Kevin Lee the same year and then fought twice in 2019 losing unanimous decisions to Donald Cerrone and Dan Hooker and we have not seen him since.
Bobby Green (27-12-1) has always been active and even got four fights in last year. He was coming off unanimous decision losses to Drakkar Klose and Francisco Trinaldo but bounced back with three unanimous decisions of his own against Clay Guida, Lando Vannata and Alan Patrick. Thiago Moises prevented four wins for the year with a unanimous decision and Rafael Fiziev made it two losses in a row with another unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
For once, Iaquinta is not raging at his opponent and seems calmer going into this fight which may help him considering he has not fought in over two years.
They match up very similarly physically and are both decent grapplers, but we expect the majority of this fight to be a stand-up battle which will be exciting as they are both exceptional boxers.
Iaquinta has the power advantage but Green has speed and brilliant head movement. If Iaquinta struggles to land, he is likely to resort to a takedown and as the fight is destined to be a close back-and-forth scrap, takedowns could be crucial is stealing the rounds.
Iaquinta is the underdog and a great value bet. He has the ability to land more damage and sway the judges with takedowns. We completely understand why Green in the favourite and a decision in his favour is very likely, but we have a feeling Iaquinta is going to dig out a performance on his home patch of New York.
Prediction: Iaquinta via Decision
Value Bet: Iaquinta via Decision
PHIL HAWES VS CHRIS CURTIS
Phil Hawes (11-2) was scheduled to fight Deron Winn back in July, but Winn pulled out for a second time with an injury which has led to this pairing. He is desperate to keep up the momentum of his seven-fight win streak including three UFC fights. He appeared on the Contender Series last year when he knocked out Khadzhimurat which led to his debut on the UFC 254 card six weeks later. It only lasted 18 seconds putting Jacob Malkoun to sleep on Fight Island. He has followed that up with two fights already this year and his first two decisions which came over the formidable Nassourdine Imavov (majority) and Kyle Daukaus (unanimous).
Chris Curtis (26-8) stepped up to replace Winn last minute at UFC Fight Night 194 but understandably Hawes opted to reschedule and push the date back. The former Classic Entertainment and Sports champion comes into this fight on a five-fight win streak for various promotions including four knockouts. That came in response to fighting five times in 2019 and losing three on the bounce for the Professional Fighters League. He knocked out Andre Fialho but went on to lose two unanimous decisions to Magomed Magomedkerimov and then got slept by Ray Cooper. However, he is on a roll now and is gunning for the upset.
PREDICTION
Curtis is a powerhouse with 14 knockouts to his name. However, he is a welterweight and Hawes is a strong, powerful and natural middleweight. Hawes is also an accomplished wrestler with a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and has the option of taking the fight away from Curtis with his grappling.
Curtis is clearly a dangerous striker and has amassed some very valuable experience. We believe he can string some wins together in the UFC down at welterweight even this late in his career.
He is taking his opportunity, but this is a terrible match-up for him especially as he does not have the best takedown defence. If Hawes tests his chin, Curtis can pull off the upset with a knockout, but we expect Hawes to close the distance and leverage his weight advantage to clinch up, drag him to the mat and pour down the ground-and-pound.
Prediction: Hawes via KO/TKO
EDMEN SHAHBAZYAN VS NASSOURDINE IMAVOV
Edmen Shahbazyan (11-2) has quickly gone from one of the hottest prospects in the middleweight division to facing three losses on the bounce. He won his first four UFC fights to extend his unbeaten run capped off by a brilliant head kick knockout over the durable veteran Brad Tavares in November 2019. However, he ran into the resurgent Derek Brunson last year who ragdolled him for three rounds finishing him with ground-and-pound and then Jack Hermansson followed suit in exposing his wrestling walking away with a unanimous decision back in May.
Nassourdine Imavov (10-3) walks out for the third time this year for another tough match-up. He cruised past Jordan Williams on his debut to make it six wins in a row including two knockouts and two submissions. However, he was then handed Phil Hawes (who is also on this card) and just missed out on a majority decision. He returned five months later in July to put on his most impressive performance to date knocking out Ian Heinisch.
PREDICTION
This is such an important fight for Shahbazyan. Losing to Brunson and Hermansson is nothing to be scoffed at but a three-fight skid coming off a hype train will be damaging to his career and confidence.
Imavov is a smaller name, but he is another very tough match-up. He will have a slight size advantage and is impeccably well-rounded. He is a calm, fluid and powerful striker and he is also a strong grappler which will be his easiest route to victory.
Shahbazyan has only lost to top tier wrestlers and although the Frenchman is not quite on Brunson’s and Hermansson’s level, he is up there. The only only question is what strategy he will go for and how much will he back his striking.
If Shahbazyan forces the pressure and controls the centre of the octagon, he can settle quickly and begin to dictate the pace. If he is hesitant like in the Hermansson fight, Imavov will begin to tag him with his hands and if he mixes in clinches and even gets Shahbazyan to the ground, he will bag the points.
The more Imavov wrestles, the more chance he has in winning. However, we expect him to have the confidence in his striking to go toe-to-toe with Shahbazyan on the feet which will make this a very even contest.
On paper, we give Imavov the slight edge in every area, but if he stands for three rounds while keeping his hands low, Shahbazyan holds all the value, especially as the underdog.
Prediction: Imavov via Decision
Value Bet: Shahbazyan via Decision
IAN GARRY VS JORDAN WILLIAMS
Ian Garry (7-0) makes his UFC debut less than three years after making his professional debut. It is no surprise to see the UFC snap up this 23-year-old. He has the hype, he is exciting, he is cocky and most importantly, he is talented. He blitzed through the Cage Warriors welterweight division collecting five impressive knockouts before meeting Jack Grant for the welterweight championship back in June. Prior to the fight, he parted ways with his team, but still put on a show earning a unanimous decision and now he is under the biggest spotlight on them all.
Jordan Williams (9-5-1) welcomes the prospect to the UFC and after three showings on the Contender Series, he finally made his debut in October last year. He finished Tim Caron on his first appearance but got popped for marijuana, knocked out Diego Herzog for Bellator but then lost a split decision to Ramazan Kuramagomedov on his second attempt on the series. He returned a year later and knocked out Gregory Rodrigues which is ageing into a very impressive win. However, he has been handed tough match ups in his first two UFC fights – losing a unanimous decision to Nassourdine Imavov and getting submitted by Mickey Gall.
PREDICTION
Garry has a lot of growing up to do but flying over to Florida to join Sandford MMA could prove to be the best decision of his career. He has been learning off the likes of Michael Chandler, Gilbert Burns and Vicente Luque who will humble him on the mats and help mould him into a welterweight force.
Williams is a lot better than his record suggests and has dangerous knockout power so if Garry does not take him seriously, he could have a nightmare debut. The Dublin boy is a striker by trade, but he is developing all of his skills and has decent grappling defence.
Williams has a takedown in the locker, but we expect this fight to remain on the feet where Garry is expected to utilize his speed, movement, power and all round striking advantage to seal a knockout and perfect debut at Madison Square Garden.