UFC Vegas 39 - Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 39? Saturday 9th October, 2021 -19:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 39? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 39? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 39 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 39? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
MACKENZIE DERN VS MARINA RODRIGUEZ
After getting humbled by Amanda Ribas two years ago, Mackenzie Dern (11-1) has resumed picking off strawweights. She submitted Hannah Cifers and Randa Markos before meeting Virna Jandiroba who represented her closest match in a jiu-jitsu sense and managed to earn a hard-fought unanimous decision. She then fought Nina Nunes back in April and collected her fourth ‘performance of the night’ bonus and seventh submission in MMA.
Marina Rodriguez (14-1-2) is also back on track after suffering the first loss of her career. That was Carla Esparza in July last year who represented her toughest stylistic matchup – an out an out wrestler. She inevitably got taken down, five times in fact, but still took the former champion to a split decision. She bounced back by TKOing Ribas and is coming off a unanimous decision win over Michelle Waterson.
PREDICTION
This is an old-fashioned striker vs grappler match-up. Rodriguez is one of the best strikers in the division and Dern has the best jiu-jitsu out of any women in MMA. So, the key area will be Dern’s wrestling. Rodriguez has very average takedown defence and if Dern gets her opponents to the floor, it is usually only a matter of time before she wraps up a submission.
So, the question will be whether Rodriguez can create enough space and avoid the takedown long enough to catch Dern on the feet. The striking and grappling are complete mismatches, but as we saw in Rodriguez’s fight with Esparza, she landed enough damage on the feet to sway one of the judges.
However, the difference here is that Esparza does not offer much on the ground besides control time whereas Dern rabidly hunts a submission, and her technique is virtually unmatched. Rodriguez needs to burst out the gate and hunt an early knockout as Dern only needs one takedown to find a finish.
Rodriguez will also need to strike from range. She is comfortable and dangerous in the clinch but the closer she gets to Dern, the easier it will be for her to take her down and that is what we expect to happen.
Prediction: Dern via Submission
Value Bet: Rodriguez via KO/TKO
RANDY BROWN VS JARED GOODEN
Randy Brown (13-4) walks out for his 12th UFC fight at only 31 years old having fought a plethora of welterweight beasts. He is 7-4 in the UFC now after collecting one of the biggest scalps of his career in submitting Alex Oliveira. It came after suffering the second knockout of his career courtesy of Vicente Luque. His first was an unforgettable knockout handed out by Niko Price who hammerfisted him into unconsciousness off his back however, he responded with a TKO over Bryan Barberena and a beautiful triangle choke on Warlley Alves and hopes to repeat those performances at the APEX.
Jared Gooden (18-6) came in hot to the UFC having submitted Marcel Stamps and Jay Jackson before knocking out Trent McCown for various promotions. However, as many find out, it is not plain sailing in the big time. He took on veteran Alan Jouban for his debut losing a unanimous decision and four months later Abubakar Nurmagomedov made it two unanimous decision losses in a row. However, Gooden ignited his UFC career by dispatching Niklas Stolze with a vicious straight right back in July.
PREDICTION
The UFC are not doing Gooden any favours as this is another tough match-up for him. Brown is a finisher, will have a slight height and reach advantage and has amassed some quality experience.
Brown also has the clear grappling advantage so Gooden will try and keep the fight standing and let his hands go. He is a technically good and power striker but his only realistic chance to win is to hope Brown gets careless and leave his chin open to get clipped.
Brown should have the edge in every department and his jab is likely to be the difference on the feet and when he decides to wrestle, he should be able to control Gooden while searching for a submission. Gooden is durable with decent jiu-jitsu, so he is likely to drag this to a decision, but it is hard to see how he wins this.
Prediction: Brown via Decision
TIM ELLIOTT VS MATHEUS NICOLAU
Tim Elliott (17-11-1) has bounced back after taking on three of the toughest fighters in the division. He took on Deiveson Figueiredo and could not put up much of a fight getting submitted in the first round - the Brazilian went on to storm his way to the title. He then met the dark horse of the division Askar Askarov losing a unanimous decision and then got submitted by Brandon Royval four months later in May last year. However, he has responded with two unanimous decisions over Ryan Benoit and Jordan Espinosa.
Matheus Nicolau (16-2-1) was part of the exodus while the flyweight division was in limbo. Many talented fighters got cut and it was particularly unlucky for Nicolau as he happened to suffer his first loss in the UFC at the time. Dustin Ortiz snapped his six-fight win streak which included UFC wins over Bruno Mesquita (submission), John Moraga (split decision) and Louis Smolka (unanimous decision). After Ortiz knocked him out, he picked up a couple wins at bantamweight for Future FC and Brace CF and thankfully he got resigned by the UFC. He returned in March this year and scraped past Manel Kape in a split decision.
PREDICTION
This fight would not make the co-main spot on most cards, but this should be a barnburner. We know what to expect from Elliott and that is to make the fight scrappy and keep forcing the pressure until he gets finished.
He will keep going to bell and back his wrestling to try and control Nicolau and wear him down. He is happy to eat a few to give a few which will not be the strategy against Nicolau. He packs a lot of power in his hands and even Elliott will not be able to absorb many shots.
We feel Elliott’s cardio and wrestling will grind out a decision or Nicolau will dishearten Elliott by defending the first few takedown attempts and proceed to dominate him on the feet. We are leaning towards it going the Brazilian’s way but Elliott is the smart pick as underdog.
Prediction: Nicolau via Decision
Value Bet: Elliott via Decision
SABINA MAZO VS MARIYA AGAPOVA
Sabina Mazo (11-2) is coming off a disappointing loss after trying her hand up at bantamweight. She was coming off three quality wins over Shana Dobson (unanimous decision), JJ Aldrich (split decision) and Justine Kish (submission). She then moved up a class to take on the veteran Alexis Davis who was on a three-fight skid. However, the Canadian schooled Mazo with her grappling to earn the unanimous decision.
Mariya Agapova (9-2) had an even bigger shock in her last fight, in fact it was one of the biggest upsets of the year. She had just blitzed through Alexa Conners (submission) and Marilla Santos (TKO) for Invicta to earn the call-up to the UFC. She kept the run going submitting Hannah Cifers in the first round and then was handed Dobson. She was expected to roll her over and put her away in the first round however, she gassed out and Dobson TKO’d her by the second round in a classy performance.
PREDICTION
We do not know how high their ceilings are yet, but we know they are going to bring it and put on a show. We are particularly excited to see Agapova after her last fight as it should be a very valuable lesson in her young career.
They have both lost some stock recently, but they are still prospects. They are both lanky strikers with Mazo boasting slightly more range. Agapova has shown more grappling skills and her aggression will be key to put Mazo on the backfoot and start putting it on the Colombian.
However, if she cannot pace herself, Mazo will chew her up in the second round and after her last fight, we expect the Kazakhstani to be a lot more patient and even hesitant to throw.
We can see her relying on her wrestling to get the fight on the floor and look for a submission. However, Mazo has underrated grappling and if she can get out the first round, she will be expected to finish stronger.
This fight is a toss-up so as Agapova is the underdog, she is worth a punt. It is hard to see Agapova making the same mistake as her last fight because it was rather embarrassing so, we expect her to have a cagey first round, but utilise her wrestling to squeeze out a decision.
Prediction: Agapova via Decision
PHIL HAWES VS DERON WINN LOWDOWN
Phil Hawes (11-2) is on fire at the moment. The UFC came calling after four first-round finishes. He TKO’d Michael Wilcox (Bellator), submitted Dominic Schober, knocked out Yuri Fraga (both Brave CF) and the blasted Khadzhimurat Bestaev on the Contender Series. He continued that form on his debut by starching Jacob Malkoun and then went on to see the bell for the first time in his career. He earnt a majority decision over Nassourdine Imavov in February and then earnt a more convincing unanimous decision over Kyle Daukaus three months later.
Deron Winn (7-2) makes the walk after a rib injury postponed their original date at UFC Vegas 31. Winn is also coming off a unanimous decision win where he made a mockery of Antonio Arroyo’s cardio. That win prevented a three-fight skid losing a split decision to Darren Stewart in 2019 and getting submitted by Gerald Meerschaert five months later.
PHIL HAWES VS DERON WINN PREDICTION
As usual, Winn gives up a significant height and reach advantage because he cannot go on a diet. Hawes will have a seven-inch reach and six-inch height advantage and he will know what to expect.
Winn will start striking, then inevitably close the distance and look for a takedown. Despite his size, he is one of the best technical wrestlers in the division. Hawes is a quality MMA wrestler, but he will need those skills to defend and keep the fight on the feet.
If he succeeds, he will light Winn up and he has the power to finish him with a variety of strikes. There was a question mark over his cardio, but it held up in his last couple fights.
So, this all depends on Hawes’ takedown defence. He has never been taken down in the UFC, but Daukaus is the only fighter who has attempted. We can certainly see Winn getting Hawes down, but we are backing the powerhouse to keep the fight standing long enough to get the job done.
Prediction: Hawes via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Winn via Decision
CHRIS GUTIERREZ VS FELIPE COLARES
Chris Gutierrez (16-4-2) is fresh from extending his unbeaten streak to five. He has only lost once in his nine and prior to the UFC he picked up a TKO over Jimmy Flick (Xtreme Fight Night) and a submission over Ray Rodriguez (Legacy Fighting Alliance). His loss came on his debut, but he was handed a very tough welcome in the shape of Raoni Barcelos who submitted him in 2018. However, he has since got past Ryan MacDonald (unanimous decision), Geraldo de Freitas (split decision), Vince Morales (TKO) and fought to a draw with Cody Durden before earning another unanimous decision over Andre Ewell in February.
Felipe Colares (10-2) also lost his debut. It came in 2019 when de Freitas earnt a unanimous decision to hand him the first loss of his career. He responded with a split decision over Domingo Pilarte but then lost another unanimous decision five months later in January last year to Montel Jackson. However, he got back in the win column in May with a unanimous decision over Luke Sanders.
PREDICTION
Neither fighter has made any noise yet in the UFC, but they have the ability to creep up the division, whether that be bantamweight or featherweight. They have both floated in between divisions and this clash will be at bantamweight.
They match up similarly physically and this should be a great scrap and we can easily see it being the ‘fight of the night’. Gutierrez will have one inch in height and Colares will boast two inches in reach.
They are both well-rounded and love to bang. We should see a back-and-forth battle and we expect Gutierrez to edge the stand-up battle and Colares may look for more takedowns, but they should be evenly matched everywhere.
We are backing Gutierrez to sway the judges with his volume and damage. His leg kicks in particular will pull the fight in his favour disabling the movement and speed of Colares.
Prediction: Gutierrez via Decision
ALEXANDER ROMANOV VS JARED VANDERAA
Alexander Romanov (14-0) is part of the new breed of heavyweights the division has been crying out for some time and the Moldovan heads to the APEX protecting his unbeaten record. He swotted away competition on the regional scene picking up the Eagles Fighting Championship in the process. After finishing 11 victims, he made his UFC debut against Roque Martinez and kept the streak going with a submission. He followed that up up two months later with another submission over Marcos Rogerio de Lima and is now now coming off the biggest win of his career. He went to a split decision but beat Juan Espino who was a giant leap in competition.
We first saw Jared Vanderaa (12-5) on the Contender Series last year when he knocked out Harry Hunsucker in the first round. His debut was a less kind match-up in the form of Sergey Spivak who handed him the first knockout loss of his career. However, he is back on the winning trail after his last showing at the APEX and battle with Justin Tafa who he beat via unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
This match-up is not as tough for Romanov simply as he has a clear path to victory. Against Espino, he met his match in the grappling sense and their skills were expected to cancel each other out and that is what happened with Romanov just doing enough to sway the judges.
That said, the threat of losing his perfect record is still here with the dangers in Vanderaa’s striking. He is also a powerful lump but is agile with a range of strikes. He is heavy handed with thunderous kicks and knees down the middle and if he can catch Romanov before he lands the takedown, he will be in serious trouble.
However, we expect the Moldovan to wrap his arms around Vanderaa before he takes any significant damage, drag him to the ground and wear him down with his weight and ground-and-pound before eventually sealing the win with his ninth submission.
Prediction: Romanov via Submission
CHARLES ROSA VS DAMON JACKSON LOWDOWN
Charles Rosa (14-5) has been around for a hot minute but has struggled for any consistency and has not won two in a row since before his debut seven years ago. He has endured a consecutive win/loss record in all 10 of his UFC fights and it may be a bad omen as he is coming off a split decision win over Justin Jaynes. That was in response to losing a unanimous decision to Darrick Minner after another split decision win over Kevin Aguillar. One positive out of his recent fights is that has been more active. After his neck injury that kept him out for 30 months, he returned two years ago and has fought five times.
Damon Jackson (18-4-1(1)) is three fights deep into his second stint in the UFC although he has only lost two fights officially. He made his debut in 2014 and got submitted by Yancy Medeiros. He then got submitted by Rony Jason, but it was later overturned to a ‘No Contest’ after popping for a banned substance and then fought to a draw with Levan Makashvili which was enough to get cut. He picked himself up and collected six wins for the Legacy Fighting Alliance before filling in as a late replacement to fight Mirsad Bektic. He ended up pulling off a ‘Performance of the Night’ with a submission in the third round. However, the UFC do not seem happy he is still around as they handed him Ilia Topuria who folded him in the first round.
PREDICTION
The only consistency in Rosa’s results is his inconsistency and now he has been paired up with another grappler who has 14 submissions on the record. Although Rosa has exceptional grappling himself as a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and has never been submitted.
So, we could see something similar to his fights with Bryce Mitchell and Minner where he fended off submission attempts for 15 minutes before losing a unanimous decision.
On paper, everything points to a Jackson decision. We know fighting is not as simple as that and we can certainly see Rosa pulling off the upset and if you fancy a cheap punt, go for a Rosa knockout, but in all likelihood, Jackson will stick to him like a rash, take him down but not be able to submit him.
Prediction: Jackson via Decision
Value Bet: Rosa via KO/TKO
LUPITA GODINEZ VS SILVANA GOMEZ JUAREZ
Lupita Godinez (5-1) returns after her battle with Jessica Penne on her UFC debut. Penne returned after four years out of the game and it was a hard-fought battle but Godinez fell on the wrong side of a super tight split decision. It was the first loss of her professional career, but she has potential as we saw in her headline fight with Vanessa Demopoulos for the Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) where she won a majority decision.
Silvana Gomez Juarez (10-2) steps up on short notice replacing Sam Hughes after her coach tested positive for COVID-19. She was originally lined up for an audition on the Contender Series next week against Maria Silva. She has not been terribly active, but she has fought some talented fighters and is on a three-fight win streak. She has losses to Poliana Botelho and Ariane Lipski but has responded to the Lipski loss with a unanimous decision over Saray Orozco (2019)) and TKO’s over Diana Reyes (2020) and Gilsely Perea (2021).
PREDICTION
Juarez steps up on short notice, but she was prepared and ready for a scrap. She is a tough fighter and although Godinez is a more difficult challenge, she will not look out of place in the octagon.
However, she will need some urgency here to prevent Godinez dictating the tempo. She prefers to strike but tends to stay on the back foot and throw singular strikes. If she starts this fight in a similar style, Godinez will be able to time her takedowns and drag her to the ground.
We expect Godinez’s pace and pressure to be too much for the Argentinian. She can overwhelm Juarez with her volume on the feet and find the takedown with relative ease. Juarez should drag this to a decision but if Godniez takes her down early, it will be a long night for her which could end in a late finish.
Prediction: Godinez via Decision
STEVE GARCIA VS CHARLIE ONTIVEROS
Steve Garcia (11-4) makes his first outing of the year and is desperate for his first UFC win. After losing his featherweight debut fighting for the JasonWink promotion, he dropped back down to bantamweight and won his next four earning a unanimous decision over Abel Cullum (JacksonWink) and notching up TKO’s over Andrew Whitney (JacksonWink), Desmond Torres (Contender Series) and Jose Mariscal (Legacy Fighting Alliance). He then snatched his chance for a UFC debut after Alex Munoz pulled out of his fight with Luis Pena. Even though it was up at lightweight, he took the fight but lost a unanimous decision.
Charlie Ontiveros (11-7) has had a very similar path to the UFC and is also gunning for his first win on the big stage. His three fights leading up to his debut were all for the Fury Fighting Championship and all ended via first-round knockouts. He got finished by Will Morris in 2017 and returned with a bang almost two years later with a flying knee on Derrick Ageday. He followed that up by dispatching Washington Luiz which led to his short-notice replacement opportunity. It was up at middleweight and Kevin Holland was the man welcoming him to the octagon and almost sent him out in two pieces after a huge slam.
PREDICTION
Ontiveros drops down to lightweight with Garcia staying up after his last fight. These two love to strike and Ontiveros will enjoy being the bigger man boasting a three inch reach and two inch height advantage.
However, Ontiveros’ chin appears to be made out of glass losing all seven of his fights via knockout. We expect both of them to be aggressive and Ontiveros may look good for the first few seconds, but it should be a matter of time before Garcia connects with the chin to seal his ninth knockout.