UFC Vegas 40 - Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 40? Saturday 16th October, 2021 -22:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 40? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 40? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 40 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 40? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ASPEN LADD VS NORMA DUMONT
Aspen Ladd (9-1) finally makes it to the octagon. After turning on beast mode and blitzing through Yana Kunitskaya back in 2019, she had fights with Julianna Pena and Sara McMann fall through and then suffered a nasty knee injury in training tearing her ACL and MCL. She was then slated to fight Macy Chaisson twice, but Chaisson got injured before UFC Vegas 32 and then Ladd missed weight before UFC Vegas 38. However, Ladd has got lucky as Holly Holm was supposed to be headlining but got injured leaving allowing the UFC to give her another headlining act despite missing weight.
Norma Dumont (6-1) receives the change in opponent but she is just happy to be on top of the card especially as she was pushed up after KEtlen Vieira vs Miesha Tate fell through. Not many people can boast headlining a card after only two UFC wins, especially in the female divisions, so Dumont has a huge opportunity to snatch some attention. Attention the bantamweight division needs and although her debut could not have gone worse getting knocked out by Megan Anderson, she earnt a classy unanimous decision over Ashlee Evans-Smith and is coming off a huge split decision win over Felicia Spencer back up at featherweight in May.
PREDICTION
At the time of writing this, it is hard to believe this main event slot will go smoothly but at least there is less chance of these ladies missing weight up at featherweight.
This should be a very fun fight with a mixture of grappling and striking. Ladd is not the most technically skilled striker, but she is a powerhouse and very explosive. Dumont is a lot more technical as a national champion in Sanda. She has better movement with dangerous leg kicks and after the first few exchanges, we expect Ladd to resort to her wrestling.
She is very strong in the clinch and if she can get the fight to the mat, her ground-and-pound will be a severe threat. Dumont is also very strong in the clinch and as she is more of a natural featherweight, it will be interesting to see who looks stronger.
Ladd will be even more powerful with less weight to cut but it will not be long before she realizes she cannot stand with Dumont. We can see the Brazilian make Ladd look like a novice on the feet and can even knock her out but if Ladd gets the fight to the ground easily, she has the ground-and-pound to earn another statement TKO.
It is tough to predict which way it will go but as Dumont is the underdog, she is the smart pick. It is also important to note that she has also been training for five rounds so if this goes past the second, Dumont should run away with it.
Prediction: Dumont via Decision
Value Bet: Dumont to win
ANDREI ARLOVSKI VS CARLOS FELIPE
Andrei Arlovski (31-20(2)) walks out for his 36th UFC fight and is thriving in gatekeeper status welcoming every young and upcoming heavyweight to the division. Augusto Sakai squeezed through the gate with a split decision back in 2019 and the door was closed on Ben Rothwell making any kind of resurgence three months later. Jairzinho Rozenstruik blasted his way in with a knockout with Philipe Lins and Tanner Boser were denied entry with unanimous decisions. There was no stopping Tom Aspinall who submitted Arlovski in the second round and Chase Sherman was also stopped in his tracks with a unanimous decision.
Carlos Felipe (11-1) is the next heavyweight hopeful trying to get past the veteran and announce himself as a legitimate contender. He lost his UFC debut against Sergey Spivak who won the majority decision, but he has responded well after his sole loss by earning a unanimous decision over Yorgan de Castro and two split decisions over Justin Tafa and Jake Collier.
PREDICTION
It is safe to say Arlovski is not manning the gate for the next UFC champion. Felipe has one loss on the record, but his wins are not very impressive. If he could only scrap past Tafa and Collier, you would not fancy his chances against Arlovski even though he is way past his prime.
We know MMA maths does not add up but, if he cannot knock the veteran out, he will have a tough time navigating around the experience of Arlovski who has turned from a scary knockout artist to calculated tactician.
This should be a slow-paced stand-up contest and for the simple fact that the only two fighters to knock Arlovski out in the last five years are Francis Ngannou and Rozenstruik and the Brazilian has not knocked anyone out in the UFC, we are backing Arlovski.
With the number of miles on the Belarussian’s clock, Felipe just needs to land one clean punch to tear up the script, but we are leaning towards another decision for the Pitbull.
Prediction: Arlovski via Decision
JIM MILLER VS ERICK GONZALEZ
Jim Miller (32-16(1)) walks out for his 38th UFC fight going 21-15(1) which is very respectable considering the level of competition he has faced and across different generations. He is a true stalwart and is still churning out impressive wins although he has lost his last two. He submitted Jason Gonzalez and Clay Guida in 2019 but then lost a unanimous decision to Scott Holtzman. He then submitted Roosevelt Roberts but is now coming off two more unanimous decision losses to Vinc Pichel and Joe Solecki.
Miller was originally scheduled to welcome Nikolas Motta to the octagon a month ago, but the vet tested positive for COVID-19. Motta’s loss is Erick Gonzalez’s gain (14-5) as he now makes his debut. He is coming off two decent wins this year – a TKO over Oziel Rodriguez Lopez (Naciones MMA) and Samuel Alvarez (Lights Out Xtreme). These wins were a long time coming he last fought back in December 2019 at the Combate 53 tournament. He earnt unanimous decisions over Yoel Jimenez and Milko Tucto but ended up losing the lightweight title fight against UFC alumni Humberto Bandenay via unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
We have to back the veteran here despite the difference in form and age. Miller has lost three of his last four, but he only loses to proven UFC calibre fighters. We can easily see Gonzalez picking up his biggest win if he uses his three-inch height and reach advantage to maintain the distance and home in on the chin.
He has knockout power, but Miller has not been knocked out since 2018 when he ate Dan Hooker’s knee. So, we expect the vet to call upon all his experience and absorb Gonzalez’s offence until he seals a takedown. If he can get Gonzalez to the ground, he has the jiu-jitsu to wrap up a submission in no time.
Prediction: Miller via Submission
MANON FIOROT VS MAYRA BUENO SILVA
Manon Fiorot (7-1) is arguably the most exciting female prospect to ever come out of Europe. It remains to be seen whether she can hang up the top or even wrestle, but she is a ferocious striker and extremely fun to watch. Besides losing her first pro fight via split decision to the formidable Leah McCourt, she has stormed through seven opponents with six knockouts including Victoria Leonardo on her UFC debut and Tabitha Ricci five months later in June.
Mayra Bueno Silva (7-1-1) arrived to the UFC in 2018 with a fair bit of hype herself. After submitting Maryna Souza on the Contender Series, she earnt the call-up and kicked off her UFC account with another submission over the talented grappler Gillian Robertson. However, she went on to suffer the first loss of her career in a unanimous decision to Maryna Moroz but responded with another submission over Mara Romero Borella. We last saw her in February where she missed out on a decision win over Montana De La Rosa as she drew after getting a point deducted for grabbing the fence.
PREDICTION
These two were originally scheduled for UFC 266 and thankfully the pairing is still intact as this will be a fun scrap. They are both super aggressive strikers with Silva preferring to walk her opponents down and throw bombs. She may think twice about walking into Fiorot however, as she is a technically sound southpaw with more power in her strikes than anyone Silva has fought before.
Fiorot has devastating kicks which she throws from all angles, and she is also dangerous in the clinch so Silva’s aggression could work against her here. There is a question mark Fiorot’s grappling, and Silva is very dangerous on the floor, but we have not seen her go for a takedown in the UFC.
We expect Silva to stand and trade with the France native, so we are backing Fiorot. Her technique combined with Silva’s lack of defence swing this in her favour but considering the odds, Silva represents all of the value.
Prediction: Fiorot via Decision
Value Bet: Silva via Decision
JULIAN MARQUEZ VS JORDAN WRIGHT
Julian ‘The Cuban Missile Crisis’ Marquez (9-2) appears for the third time this year which is great to see after spending three years out after his fight with Alessio Di Chirico in July 2018. He tore his lat in the fight which required a couple surgeries and to make things worse, he lost a split decision. That snapped a five-fight win streak which included a savage head kick knockout over Phil Hawes and a submission over Darren Stewart. He has added two more submissions over Maki Pitolo and Sam Alvey this year and now he is gunning for more.
Jordan ‘The Beverly Hills Ninja’ Wright (12-1-1(1)) also had a spell out after a fight in 2018. He got knocked out by Anthony Hernandez on the Contender Series and did not return for 19 months. The only silver lining was that the loss was overturned after Hernandez popped for marijuana. He returned at the start of 2020 to knock out Gabriel Checco for the Legacy Fighting Alliance and followed it up with another TKO on his UFC debut over Ike Villanueva. He then ended 2020 by getting clapped by Joaquin Buckley but he bounced back in May with his seventh knockout after dispatching Jamie Pickett in the first round.
PREDICTION
Their records look very impressive at first glance, but their own nicknames are more impressive than most the names in the win column. Wright is a brilliant striker with an electrifying karate style although he has only looked good against cans.
Marquez is no can, but Wright will be a threat with his kicks and five-inch reach advantage especially as Marquez eats a lot of shots. Marquez is very comfortable trading on the feet and he will be dangerous himself, especially at close range. However, he will be better off using his strikes to set up a takedown and avoid getting caught by a wild kick that Wright can throw from any angle.
If Wright can keep this on the feet, he has a great chance with his technical advantage. He also has 100% takedown defence in the UFC but the only takedowns he has had to defend were two from Buckley. As Marquez does not have to worry about getting taken down himself, we back him to dictate where the fight goes and there will be some exciting exchanges on the feet.
Marquez should take the fight away from Wright mixing in takedowns finishing strong, but Wright is the value pick as the underdog. Marquez has a granite chin, so a Wright decision is a good shout.
Prediction: Marquez via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Wright via Decision
ANDREW SANCHEZ VS BRUNO SILVA
After winning The Ultimate Fighter 23 as a light heavyweight, Andrew Sanchez (12-6) is now 5-4 in UFC and has struggled to make any real impression. He has a few decent wins including unanimous decisions over Markus Perez and Marc-Andre Barriault and a surprising knockout over Wellington Turman, but he has come against to some solid middleweights. He lost a unanimous decision against Marvin Vettori in 2019 and is coming off a brutal flying knee TKO courtesy of Makhmud Muradov.
Bruno Silva (20-6) has been more consistent knocking out his last five opponents including decent competition including Alexander Shlemenko and Artem Frolov for the M-1 middleweight title and only losing once in his last 16 fights. He is yet to prove himself in the UFC although he is on the right track after knocking out Turman on his debut back in June.
PREDICTION
This is typical matchmaking from the UFC handing an exciting up and coming knockout artist an experienced grappler. What Silva lacks in technique, he makes up for in power and aggression.
The Brazilian likes to stand square and swing for the fences, overwhelming his opponents with his power and volume. His style is not suited for three to five round fights, but he finished Frolov in the fourth round, so his cardio is not terrible.
However, the fight will completely flip if Sanchez finds the takedown. He is a brilliant grappler and he can really sap the energy of the Brazilian in defending the takedowns, trying to get up and in the scrambles.
Sanchez’s striking has greatly improved but if he backs himself, he will be walking into to fire. If he fights smart, he will try and get the fight to the floor where he can hunt a submission or try and grind out a decision.
Silva is the favourite with all the form, but a Sanchez submission is a great shout for a bet especially when you see the five submission losses on Silva’s record. However, the Brazilian just needs to clip the damaged jaw once.
Prediction: Silva via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Sanchez via Decision or Submission
DANNY ROBERTS VS RAMAZAN EMEEV
We have not seen Danny Roberts (17-5) since November 2019 when he cleaned Zelim Imadaev’s clock. It was a huge win for the Brit who was coming off two brutal losses the same year and the fact there was some bad blood dripped in there. He was beating Claudio Silva until the Brazilian cinched up a submission in the third round and then two months later, he got caught in the Michel Pereira whirlwind and getting spectacularly finished by a flying knee and right hand.
Ramazan Emeev (20-4) has only lost once in his last 10 fights and that was against Rocco Martin. That unanimous decision snapped a seven-fight win streak which included a unanimous decision over Stefan Sekulic on his debut. He has only fought once a year since that intro to the UFC and in 2020 he earnt a unanimous decision over Niklas Stolze and back in January he earnt another decision, this time a close split one over David Zawada.
PREDICTION
Roberts’ takedown defence is going to get tested once again. They are both southpaws and Roberts will be desperate to keep the fight standing as he has a clear advantage in the striking department. The former M-1 middleweight champion fancies himself on the feet, but he will only have to eat one shot to realise he has to get the fight to the floor.
Unfortunately for Roberts, Emeev is very efficient at that as an exceptional wrestler. The Russian has the ability to take Roberts down in each round to seal another decision, but if he is not calculated or leaves his chin open as he shoots in, Roberts has the accuracy and power to knock him out with one shot.
If Emeev does not fight smart he can get finished but in all likelihood he is going exchange at the start of each round but then seal the takedown to bag the points.
Prediction: Emeev via Decision
LUANA CAROLINA VS LUPITA GODINEZ
Luana Carolina (7-2) is wondering how she is still on the card. Firstly, she was paired up with Maryna Moroz but the Ukrainian dropped out a couple weeks ago. Sijara Eubanks then filled in but got pulled due to COVID-19 protocol and now she has a third opponent. Carolina has only fought fellow Brazilian’s so far in the UFC including her Contender Series win over Mabelly Lima. She earnt another unanimous decision on her debut against Priscila Cachoeira but got her six-fight win streak violently snapped by an Ariane Lipski kneebar. However, she got back in the win column with a tight split decision over Poliana Botelho back in May.
How game is Lupita Godinez (6-1). She rocked up last week at UFC Vegas 39 and put on her best performance to date, dominating Silvana Gomez Juarez and putting her out of her misery with an armbar. Now, instead of going home to recover, she steps up to flyweight taking a fight on just a few days’ notice. Her debut and split decision loss to Jessica Penne could have gone either way so what better way to respond than two wins in two weeks.
PREDICTION
Godinez only fought last week, moves up a weight class and has had no time to prepare, but this will still be a tough fight for Carolina as the Mexican is still on a massive high and has the skill set to threaten Carolina.
The Brazilian is a Muay Thai national champion and boasts a significant size advantage with eight inches in reach and four in height. Godinez can scrap but Carolina should dictate the striking exchanges and will have no problem in finding the chin.
However, her biggest threat is Godinez’s grappling. She doggedly hunts the takedown and forces a crazy pace. She is clearly in fight shape and if she can close the distance, she can exploit the holes in Carolina’s game.
It is somewhat surprising to see Godinez as such a big favourite, but we can certainly see her charge Carolina down, drag her to the mat and even pull off another submission. There is clear value on the Brazilian especially considering her size, but we are predicting Godinez’s momentum to cap off a perfect fortnight.
Prediction: Godinez via Decision
Value Bet: Carolina via Decision
NATE LANDWEHR VS LUDOVIT KLEIN
Nate Landwehr (14-4) has had a miserable year. He swallowed a flying knee from Julian Erosa in the first round of his fight in February. That made it 1-2 in the UFC after a unanimous decision win over Darren Elkins and getting knocked out by Herbert Burns on his debut. Rare territory for Landwehr who was riding an impressive seven-fight win streak before his debut. He had a chance to get back on track in June but got injured forcing himself out of his fight with Makwan Amirkhani so is now desperate to get to the APEX and get back in the win column.
Ludovit Klein (17-3) is also in rare territory and desperate to change his 2021 fortunes. He was on his own seven-fight win streak before making his debut and made it eight with an immaculate performance, knocking Shane Young out, doing all the damage with a nasty head kick. He then met Michael Trizano in May at UFC Vegas 26 but got his streak snapped by a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
This is a very important fight for these two as the trajectory of their careers will depend on it. Klein has the opportunity to brush off the Trizano loss, use it as valuable experience and surge up the division. Another loss for Landwehr will raise questions about his UFC tenure.
Whatever happens, we know we are in for a show here as they are both very exciting and aggressive with finishing ability. Landwehr is a wild man and Klein is more of an assassin who also has a variety of submissions in the bank.
We expect a violent battle on the feet where Klein has the technique and power to close the show. As soon as Landwehr gets hit, you worry he is going to respond by charging Klein down. That is when the Slovakian will ruthlessly counter him. The damage he has absorbed recently is also a worry, so we are leaning towards a ninth knockout for Klein.
Prediction: Klein via KO/TKO
DANAA BATGEREL VS BRANDON DAVIS
Danaa Batgerel (9-2) has gone on to ignite his UFC career after losing his debut back in 2019. That loss ended a run of three finishes – Aldar Budanaev (TKO), Sukhbold Sodnomdorj (knockout) and Haitao Ti (submission) which were all in different weight classes. He has fought as high as lightweight, but his home is at bantamweight and although he lost a unanimous decision to Heili Alateng, he slept Guido Cannetti last year and Kevin Natividad in April with his lightening left hand.
After losing four in five, Brandon Davis (14-8) got cut in 2019. Unfortunate as he got outpointed by Enrique Barzola, submitted by Zabit Magomedsharipov and lost tight split decisions to Kang Kyung-ho and Giga Chikadze. He went on to get some fights in for his local Gulf Coast MMA promotion and racked up four easy wins collecting a bantamweight championship in the process. Now, he is back to prove he belongs in the UFC.
PREDICTION
This is a tough welcome back for Davis although he is no stranger to difficult UFC fights. They both have a lot to prove but we do not expect them to be hesitant in pulling the trigger and it should be a fun scrap.
They are both great strikers. Davis likes to force the pressure and has the cardio to go a fast 15 minutes whereas Batgerel will have the speed advantage and can counter from a variety of angles, including the backfoot so stylistically, this is a mouth-watering match-up.
Neither of them have been knocked out and we expect this battle to stretch into the third at least so this will come down to who can land the most volume with significant damage unless Davis throws in a few takedowns. Batgerel’s speed is enough to win the exchanges and sway the judges, but this is very tough to call and Davis as the underdog is a smart play.
Prediction: Batgerel via Decision
Value Bet: Davis via Decision
ISTELA NUNES VS ARIANE CARNELOSSI
Istela Nunes (6-1(1)) finally makes her UFC debut after serving a drugs ban. She has only waited over three years since her last fight when she earnt a unanimous decision over Gina Iniong for One Championship. This was a year after her first loss which was a submission to Angela Lee and prior to that loss, it was almost another year between her last fight which was a split decision win over Mei Yamaguchi so it is fair to say she has not been the most active.
Ariane Carnelossi (13-2) has been more active but that does not say much only fighting once since her debut in 2019. That was against Angela Hill who was actually scheduled to fight Nunes before she got pulled for her failed drugs test. Carnelossi stepped up and Hill was simply a level above and ended up cutting the Brazilian forcing a doctor’s stoppage. She eventually returned in April this year, and TKO’d Na Liang to kick off her UFC career in style.
PREDICTION
Who knows how Nunes will show up. She has been out for a hot minute, but her Muay Thai skills will not have left her. She is an accomplished Muay Thai fighter and as Carnelossi is fully expected to bring the heat and aggressively hunt the chin of Nunes, we should be in for a spectacle.
Carnelossi has the power, but Nunes has the speed and reach advantage. Expect her to bounce just out of Carnelossi’s range, feinting and ready to fire one and two punch combinations. Carnelossi will get frustrated and look to close the distance but will have to be careful falling into Nunes’ clinch.
The biggest question mark is Nunes’ activity and Carnelossi can really capitalise on any rustiness by starting quickly, closing the distance and maintaining a high volume of strikes before Nunes settles.
That is what we expect to happen but if Nunes comes out confident, she can counter Carnelossi’s forward pressure and maintain the distance for three rounds, winning the exchanges with her speed.
Nunes is worth a punt as the underdog, but with that layoff, we are backing Carnelossi for a decision.