UFC Vegas 41 - Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Night 196? Saturday 23rd October, 2021 -19:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 196? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 196? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Fight Night 196 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 196? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
PAULO COSTA VS MARVIN VETTORI
Paulo Costa (13-1) is back after a humbling dished out by Israel Adesanya in their middleweight title fight. It was over a year ago and has since backed out of two bouts - Robert Whittaker which he withdrew due to illness and who knows why he pulled out the Jared Cannonier fight. Adesanya had his way with Costa, and it was such a masterclass in striking that it feels the Brazilian still has a lot to prove despite knocking out the likes of Johny Hendricks, Uriah Hall and going toe-to-toe with Yoel Romero winning a unanimous decision.
Marvin Vettori (17-5-1) also crashed back down to earth after a dominant loss to the champ. To add to his split decision win over Vettori back in 2018, Adesanya won a more comfortable unanimous decision in the heated rematch which snapped an impressive five-fight win streak. The streak included a submission over Karl Roberson and unanimous decisions over Jack Hermansson and Kevin Holland. The difference with Vettori however, is that he has been far more active, and this will be his fourth fight since Costa last fought.
PREDICTION
It feels like a long time since we have had a main event of this calibre. Costa is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but he will only back his striking to get the job done whereas Vettori is the one expected to initiate any grappling.
Vettori is a brilliant striker himself, but his best weapons here will be his defence and granite chin. Costa is known for his knockout power, but he is a sophisticated striker setting up his power body and head kicks with his jab and leg kicks.
They are extremely effective against southpaws like Vettori and Costa will be attacking his lead right leg from the bell. Vettori has great head movement, but he is going to get chopped down unless he keeps moving.
The best way to defend Costa’s offence will be to clinch up and take him down. Costa has great takedown defence, but Vettori has a much larger gas tank so and needs to be persistent.
If the Italian loses patience or has the ego to stand and trade with Costa, he is going to take a lot of punishment. He if decides to wrestle and make this a boring five rounds, he can sap Costa’s energy and grind out a decision or even a late finish.
While Costa has energy, he will be able to defend the takedowns while being a significant threat on the feet. We expect the first couple rounds to be tough for Vettori with his chin keeping him in it but if he sticks to a game plan and wrestles, he will finish stronger.
Prediction: Vettori via Decision
Value Bet: Costa via KO/TKO
GRANT DAWSON VS RICKY GLENN
Grant Dawson (17-1) finally moved up to lightweight in his last bout after struggling to make the 145 lb mark and continued his phenomenal streak. He is riding on eight at the moment including five tough UFC bouts. He earnt a unanimous decision over Julian Erosa (2019) on his debut and went on to submit Michael Trizano (2019) and fellow jiu-jitsu ace Darrick Minner (2020). He then outpointed Nad Narimani (2020) before moving up a class to fight an even bigger jiu-jitsu wizard in Leonardo Santos who he knocked out in the third round.
Injuries and hip surgery kept Ricky Glenn (22-6-1) out for nearly three years after his unanimous decision loss to Kevin Aguilar in 2018. That loss came after a good split decision win over Dennis Bermudez (2018) and a unanimous decision loss to Myles Jury (2017) to go 3-3 in the UFC. He eventually returned in June also moving up to lightweight to seal a brilliant knockout, finishing Joaquim Silva in the first round.
PREDICTION
Glenn looked great against in his comeback fight but that was a much kinder match-up. Silva prefers to strike with a rather suspect chin whereas Dawson is a tough beast of a grappler.
Glenn’s only real hope is for Dawson to stand long enough to get clipped. We expect Dawson to entertain a few exchanges on the feet but will inevitably shoot in for the takedown where he should drag Glenn down to the canvas.
It is hard to see this fight not going Dawson’s way who will wear Glenn down and even pull off a late finish.
Prediction: Dawson via Submission
JESSICA-ROSE CLARK VS JOSELYNE EDWARDS
Jessica-Rose Clark (10-6(1)) has recovered from tearing her ACL which is great news as she was coming off one of her most impressive wins and mauling of Sarah Alpar in September last year. She put the debutant out of her misery with some brutal knees despite tearing her ACL. That win came with great relief after losing two unanimous decisions in a row to Jessica Eye (2018) and Pannie Kianzad (2019) which snapped a three-fight streak. Clark is now back and hoping to emulate her last performance, but just going back to fighting more than once a year would be a good start.
Joselyne Edwards (10-3) returns after a whirlwind couple months at the start of the year. She was coming off a brilliant knockout over Pamela Gonzalez after losing a split decision to Alpar. She made her debut as a short notice replacement for Bethe Correira and ending up beating Yanan Wu via unanimous decision. She then stepped up on short notice again only three weeks later against Karol Rosa. However, Rosa was a challenge too steep and she ended up losing a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
This is great matchmaking, and it will be interesting to see how Clark has recovered from her injury and what Edwards looks like with a full training camp.
Edwards will also have a lot of range on Clark with a six-inch reach and three-inch height advantage. She has the striking skills to utilise that advantage by keeping Clark at a distance with her jab and kicks.
However, if Clark can close the distance, it will be a different fight. Rosa took Edwards down at will and although Clark is not as good a grappler as Rosa, she can out wrestle Edwards. Clark is also dangerous in the pocket so needs to find a way of getting close, attempting the takedown or clinching up and unleashing on the break.
Edwards is the underdog, but if Clark cannot close the distance, she will eat her up and pepper her at range to earn a decision. This can go either way, but we are backing Clark to play it smart and lace up the wrestling boots.
Prediction: Clark via Decision
Value Bet: Edwards via Decision
ALEX CACERES VS SEUNG WOO CHOI
Alex Caceres (18-12(1)) is currently enjoying his longest winning streak 24 fights into his UFC career. After being fed to and submitted by Kron Gracie in 2019 to go 9-10(1) in the UFC, he has strung four solid wins together. He earnt unanimous decisions over Steven Peterson and Chase Hooper before submitting Austin Springer and now he is coming off another unanimous decision in February over Kevin Croom.
Seung Woo Choi (10-3) is currently on a three-fight streak after losing his first two UFC fights. He had a tough start to his UFC career, stepping up on short notice to take on Movsar Evloev for his debut losing a unanimous decision. He returned three months later to fight Gavin Tucker but got submitted in the third round. He responded to those losses by outpointing Suman Mokhtarian the same year and did not return until February this year where he earnt another unanimous decision over Youssef Zalal following it up with a clinical TKO over Julian Erosa three months ago.
PREDICTION
This will be a fun fight between Caceres’ kickboxing and Choi’s Muay Thai. Caceres is in the form of his life, but Choi is a much tougher fight than his previous opponents. Caceres is a tricky southpaw with good movement, but we will back Choi in the striking exchanges.
The South Korean will have a slight height and reach advantage and will be confident in out striking Caceres. He is an accomplished Muay Thai fighter and as we saw in the Erosa fight, he has the power to match his technique.
Caceres will be a lot harder to hit but Choi’s power should make the difference. We expect this to be a close and exciting striking battle with Choi, landing more volume and significant strikes with Caceres’ defence dragging this out to the bell.
Prediction: Choi via Decision
FRANCISCO TRINALDO VS DWIGHT GRANT
The stalwart Fransico Trinaldo (26-8) walks out for his 24th UFC fight filling in for Gabriel Green. He is coming off a loss to one of the most underrated strikers in the division Muslim Salikhov which snapped a three-fight win streak but still has a very respectable 16-7 UFC record.
Dwight Grant (11-3) appears for his second showing of the year hoping to make it two from two. He squeaked past Stefan Sekulic in a split decision back in April which was a win he would have taken in any way after being moments from finishing Daniel Rodriguez in August last year only to get knocked out himself in the first round.
PREDICTION
Trinaldo is the ripe old age of 43 and only accepted the fight last month but this will still be a very tough fight for Grant. He has buckets of experience, is incredibly well-rounded and still has a granite chin having never been knocked out in his career.
Grant has knockout power, but you cannot rely on it against Trinaldo. What he can rely on however, is his six-inch reach advantage. He needs to maintain the distance to avoid Trinaldo’s power shots in the pocket and more importantly avoid the grappling.
Grant will be a threat and will swing wildly when Trinaldo walks him down, but if the Brazilian gets a hold of Grant, he will make him suffer. Trinaldo is very dangerous in the clinch and has the wrestling to to control Grant on the deck to snatch the rounds.
Most 43-year-old chins will be vulnerable to Grant’s power, but if it holds up once again Trinaldo will grind out another decision win.
Prediction: Trinaldo via Decision
Value Bet: Sanchez via Decision or Submission
NICOLAE NEGUMEREANU VS IKE VILLANUEVA
Nicolae Negumereanu (10-1) is standing tall on an impressive looking record littered with finishes, but the light heavyweight division is not exactly going to be put on notice with a unanimous decision loss to Saparbek Safarov. He lost to the Russian on his debut in 2019 which was the first loss of his career, but he responded well with a split decision win over Aleksa Camur four months ago.
Ike Villanueva (18-12) has not set the division alight either losing three of his last four. His debut was at heavyweight however, taking on Chase Sherman. He got TKO’d and Jordan Wright welcomed him to the light heavyweight division with another TKO, but Villanueva was gifted the whipping boy Vinicius Moreira to get off the mark. He starched him in the second round, but Marcin Prachnio made it three knockout losses in four fights back in June.
PREDICTION
On paper, Negumereanu should take this all day. He is a finisher and Villanueva has been knocked out six times and submitted five times. The Romanian is also 10 years younger and not absorbed much damage in his career.
However, when you consider Villanueva’s power and Negumereanu’s technique or lack of defence, anything can happen. They are both very aggressive and Negumereanu has more strings to his bow and may mix in takedowns. Villanueva does not offer much on the floor, so we could see the Romanian hunt a submission.
Villanueva has a puncher’s chance, but Negumereanu should have the edge in every area. We are safe in the knowledge neither fighter will make a run for the title, but this should be a fun fight.
Prediction: Negumereanu via KO/TKO
JUN YONG PARK VS GREGORY RODRIGUES
After a shaky start to his pro career, Jun Yong Park (13-4) is on a roll. His only loss in his last 11 fights was against Anthony Hernandez on his UFC debut (2019). He got wrapped up in an anaconda choke but has responded with three straight wins. He earnt unanimous decisions over Marc-Andre Barriault (2019) and John Phillips (2020) and he is coming off another decision win although it was not plain sailing as Tafon Nchukwi ended up getting a point deducted after hitting Park’s crown jewels too many times.
Gregory Rodrigues (10-3) is also on a roll only losing once in his last 10. That loss came last year on the Contender Series and it felt like a huge setback at the time as Jordan Williams who was making his third appearance on the series knocked him out in the first round. However, Rodrigues bounced back with three good wins this year picking up the Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) middleweight strap in the process. He knocked out Al Matavao and Josh Fremd for LFA to earn the call-up and earnt a unanimous decision over Dusko Todorovic on debut.
PREDICTION
Park has solid boxing and Rodrigues has dangerous Muay Thai. Rodrigues will also boast a three-inch reach and five-inch height advantage so Park will need to step into range to offload punches, but Rodrigues will be waiting to counter and enforce a clinch.
Park can wrestle and loves a takedown, but he will be better off maintaining the distance as Rodrigues is also a national champion in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Rodrigues is another grappler who has fallen in love with his hands and it makes sense considering his knockout power, but if he gets complacent on the feet and drops his hands like he did in the Williams fight, Park will punish him.
Park also has a granite chin so if Rodrigues decides to stand for three rounds we would lean towards the South Korean but if he mixes in some grappling, Park’s back will be there to be taken in the scrambles so he could even seal the deal with a submission.
Prediction: Rodrigues via Decision
Value Bet: Rodrigues via Submission
JAMIE PICKETT VS LAUREANO STAROPOLI
Jamie Pickett (11-6) is still searching for his first UFC win. He got the call-up after a brilliant TKO over Jhonoven Pati on the Contender Series in August last year. He was awarded with a debut against the unit that is Tafon Nchukwi four months later and lost a unanimous decision. He then had a great match-up in Jordan Wright on the UFC 262 card and everyone was expecting a knockout but unfortunately, he fell on the wrong side of one eating several elbows in the process.
Laureano Staropoli (9-4) had a fair bit of hype behind him especially in South America after his first two UFC fights. He was sitting on a 9-1 record and extended it with two classy unanimous decisions over Hector Aldana and Thiago Alves. He beat Alves in 2019 and he has not won since but he has had some very tough match-ups. He lost unanimous decisions to Muslim Salikhov, Tim Means and Roman Dolidze where he took the fight on short notice.
PREDICTION
This is a much kinder match-up for Staropoli than his previous fights. It is interesting to see him stay at middleweight after his short notice fight with Dolidze although he did struggle to make the 170 lb mark at welterweight.
They are virtually the same height. but Pickett will have a significant nine-inch reach advantage. He can certainly make that reach count as he is a dangerous striker although Staropoli will have to get sloppy.
The Argentinian is technically a better on the feet, but he will have to come with a game plan. He has to assume Pickett will strike from range and mix in takedowns. It is just a question of whether Pickett is good enough to do that.
Pickett has the range and wrestling advantage, but we are backing Staropoli’s skill on the feet to outland and do enough damage to sway the judges and pick up a much-needed win.
Prediction: Staropoli via Decision
KHAMA WORTHY VS JAI HERBERT
Khama Worthy (16-8) has crashed back down to earth in his last couple fights getting knocked out twice in the first-round courtesy of Ottman Azaitar in September last year and Jamie Mullarkey back in March. He also got knocked twice in a row back in 2016/2017 but then went on a brilliant seven fight win streak which included two UFC wins – a knockout over Devonte Smith and a submission over Luis Pena. Now he wants to emulate that comeback.
Jai Herbert (10-3) must have some enemies amongst the UFC brass as his first two UFC fights were against Francisco Trinaldo and Renato Moicano. He got knocked out by Trinaldo suffering unnecessary damage thanks to Herb Dean and then got submitted by Moicano. Herbert is also desperate to regain his form and we will be in for a show if he does as he lit up the Cage Warriors scene with a six-fight win streak knocking out five opponents on his way to the UFC.
PREDICTION
This is another tough fight for Herbert but a much better match-up than Trianldo and Moicano. Worthy will just turn up to plant and swing whereas Herbert is technically sound on the feet and will utilise his three-inch reach advantage.
There is no doubting Worthy’s power and he is a dangerous counter striker, but his chin has taken a lot of damage suffering seven knockouts in his career. Worthy just need to land one clean strike, but he needs to set it up so it may be a good idea to threaten the takedown.
However, another worry for Worthy is his movement and Herbert is brilliant at striking from range and different angles. We are backing Herbert to turn the lights off, but a knockout can fall either way.