UFC Fight Night 173 - Vegas 5 Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 5? Sunday 2nd August, 2020 – 00:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 5? APEX Facility, Las Vegas, Nevada
What channel is UFC Vegas 5 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 5? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ which can you sign up to here!
Derek Brunson vs Edmen Shahbazyan
After Irene Aldana tested positive for COVID-19, her fight with Holly Holm has been postponed which has given Edmen Shahazyan the opportunity to headline his first UFC event with veteran Derek Brunson.
Brunson has looked rejuvenated since his back-to-back knockout losses to Jacare Souza and Israel Adesanya. He bounced back with calculated unanimous decisions against the formidable Elias Theodorou and Ian Heinisch adding some much-needed patience and nous to his game.
Shahbazyan is one of the hottest prospects in the UFC right now after entering the game as Ronda Rousey's training partner as a young teenager. He now sits proudly on an unblemished record. Since his UFC debut in 2018 he has continued to raise his stock. He got through that debut with a close decision against Darren Stewart but put everyone on notice with beautiful knockouts over Charles Byrd and Brad Tavares sandwiching another dominant submission victory over Jack Marshman.
PREDICTION
Shahbazyan has looked great but this is a giant step-up in competition. The Byrd win was part of a three-fight losing streak, Marshman has weak takedown defence and Tavares was coming off a long layoff. That said, Shahbazyan will be the favourite and rightly so.
He is the most seamless 22-year-old around showing hardly any weaknesses so far. However, this is his toughest test because Brunson is an exceptional wrestler who has never been taken down in the UFC and a seasoned striker known for his knockout power.
This fight will be won on the feet and Brunson could easily pull off the upset but only if he is patient and does not resort to his old reckless ways. The worrying sign is his susceptibility to getting knocked out and Shahbazyan’s power. With how quickly he is improving we are backing him to add his 10th knockout but if you are betting, Brunson is the pick.
Winner: Shahbazyan via KO/TKO
Joanne Calderwood vs Jennifer Maia
With no viable contenders for Valentina Shevchenko at the moment, an impressive win could easily bag Joanne Calderwood a title shot. After a brilliant submission over Kalindra Faria and decision over Ariane Lipski, Calderwood suffered the fourth setback of her UFC career losing a decision to Katlyn Chookagian. However, she bounced back with a hard-fought decision over Andrea Lee in her last outing.
Jennifer Maia was also on the wrong side of a unanimous decision to Chookagian which was her last fight back in November. She is now 2-2 in the UFC after losing her debut to Liz Carmouche, but she has very impressive decision wins over veterans Alexis Davis and Roxanne Modafferi.
PREDICTION
This is likely to be a three round stand-up battle with an exciting display of boxing and Muay Thai. The flyweight division is crying out for a stand-out performance and they will both want a finish, but the judges will more than likely be called upon.
It seems, Maia’s biggest opponent has been the scale and if she struggles with the weight again, Calderwood will exploit any deficit in energy with her relentless output and ultimately sway the judges with her diverse attack.
Winner: Calderwood via Decision
Vicente Luque vs Randy Brown
Vicente Luque makes another quick turnaround, this time after knocking out Niko Price back in May at UFC 249. He was scheduled to fight Randy Brown back in April, but the event fell through due to the COVID-19 pandemic. They now have their date and Luque wants to waste no time in rebuilding another run after Stephen Thompson expertly snapped his six-fight streak at UFC 244.
Brown did not fare as well against Price back in 2018 losing via knockout but he has responded with his two biggest wins to date in 2019. He finished the super durable Bryan Barberena and went on to submit Warlley Alves picking up a ‘performance of the night’ in the process.
PREDICTION
Like all Luque’s fights, this should be a violent war. He has come out on top of every stand-up battle apart from Thompson who technically and tactically is just a level above most fighters when it comes to striking.
So, we are expecting Luque to edge out another thrilling fight. However, he has to watch out for Brown’s significant reach advantage and he cannot keep relying on his chin to absorb as much damage as he dishes out.
Brown has a good chance here but Luque’s chin seems like it is still made of granite and he is expected to win the majority of exchanges, landing more damage and pulling off a late knockout.
Winner: Luque via KO/TKO
Lando Vannata vs Bobby Green
Lando Vannata and Bobby Green meet again after their first clash ended in a draw back in 2017 at UFC 216.
Vannata landed more strikes and takedowns but was deducted a point due to an illegal knee and he was lucky it did not do more damage and Green could continue. He has since gone 2-2-1 and struggling to get a run going but he always puts on an exciting performance and is why he is a fan favourite.
Cut from a similar cloth, Green is looking to put on a show but more importantly a win. He has also struggled for any consistency and since their draw every fight has gone to a unanimous decision. He replied with a win over Erik Koch, suffered losses to Drakkar Klose and Francisco Trinaldo and is now coming off a win a quality performance over Clay Guida.
PREDICTION
Vannata landed 104 significant strikes to Green’s 93 including a knockdown so he got the better of Green despite the early illegal knee. However, that fight was three years ago, and they have improved a lot since, especially in their last outings.
If both fighters come into this fight relaxed and confident it could easily be the ‘fight of the night’. They excel when they are more loose and let their hands go which will create a thrilling battle if they do.
The difference will come down to output and it is bound to be a close fight. Vannata was also very successful with his grappling first time around and knows he can call upon that if Green finds his rhythm.
Winner: Vannata via Decision
Kevin Holland vs Trevin Giles
Kevin Holland and Trevin Giles have both suffered various scheduling issues in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic but thankfully they meet at the APEX facility the kick-off the main card at UFC Vegas 5.
Holland has experience fighting in these conditions having fought in Jacksonville back in May. However, his time in the cage only lasted 39 seconds after dispatching Anthony Hernandez. He then planned to get back to action two weeks later to fight Daniel Rodriguez but had to drop out due to injury but now looks to continue where he left off against Hernandez.
Giles bounced back in his last fight after suffering the first two losses of his career – submissions against Zak Cummings and Gerald Meerschaert. That win came over James Krause which is a huge name to have on your record, but the lighter Krause took the fight on the day of the bout after Antonio Arroya pulled out last minute.
PREDICTION
Giles’ losses have all come via submission but do not be misled as he fended off the submission attempts from Krause who has elite ground skills. They are both very adept on the mat, but this is likely to take place on the feet.
The important factor is Holland’s reach. It is one thing to have an eight-inch advantage, but it is another when you utilise it. He looked flawless in his last fight with a karate style, keeping Hernandez at the end of his kicks controlling distance.
If he can adopt a similar approach, he can frustrate Giles and pick him apart from range, but he will have to keep that up for three rounds as Giles is very dangerous in the pocket.