UFC on ESPN 14 - Fight Island 3 Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Island 3? Saturday 25th July, 2020 – 23:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Island 3? Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, UAE
What channel is UFC Fight Island 3 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC Fight Island 3? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ which can you sign up to here!
Robert Whittaker vs Darren Till
The fourth event on Fight Island is headlined by a mouth-watering fight between two fan-favourites - Robert Whittaker and Darren Till.
Whittaker has regained some motivation after losing his belt to Israel Adesanya in devastating fashion which snapped that phenomenal nine-fight winning streak. He was scheduled to return against Jared Cannonier back in March, but he really needed time to rest and recover properly suffering burnout. Thankfully, he is back and raring to go.
Till heads to Fight Island continuing his quest at middleweight. After the welterweight title shot and submission loss to Tyron Woodley and the brutal knockout loss courtesy of Jorge Masvidal, Till moved up to middleweight and immediately proved he is a top contender by earning a split decision over the former title challenger Kelvin Gastelum.
PREDICTION
It will be a real shame to see one of the warriors lose but it is destined to be a war with the highest skill level. Till made a name for himself with his Muay Thai and overwhelming opponents with his power but he proved his class against elite strikers, Stephen Thompson and Kelvin Gastelum with calculated performances.
He is cerebral and creates openings with elaborate movement and feints also using that power superbly in the clinch. Whittaker is a better all-round wrestler and is also devastating on the feet with awkwardly timed combinations finishing with his snapping head kick.
Whittaker may call upon his wrestling, but any grappling is likely to be initiated by Till’s clinch. That said, this is likely to be a tactical stand-up battle of the highest level. They have the power to finish but they are both expected to be patient, respecting each other’s skills and although a lot of damage will be dished out, we are likely to see five rounds.
Over the course of five rounds, it could come down to Whittaker’s mental/physical state and ultimately who lands more. Either way, this is going to be an exhilarating stand-up battle.
Winner: Whittaker via Decision
Shogun Rua vs Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
A nostalgic match-up supports the main event between Robert Whittaker and Darren Till as Brazilian legends – Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira meet again for the third time and possible swansong.
Shogun came out on top back in their first encounter all the way back in 2005 for Pride with the first decision win of his career, taking a break from knocking everyone out. That took his record up to 10-1. Their next meeting came 10 years later at UFC 190 earning another unanimous decision and now ‘Little Nog’ wants to make 2-1 and end his great career on a high.
Shogun is now 26-11-1 having fought every monster and their dog but he still has his knockout power. Before getting finished by Anthony Smith, he knocked out Gian Villante and bounced back with another knockout over Tyson Pedro but is coming off the first draw of career which was against Paul Craig who is also on the card.
Nogueira went 11-2 after the first loss to Shogun and although he had less fights in the Wild Wild West of Pride, he still fought a plethora of legends bagging wins over the likes of Kazushi Sakuraba, Alistair Overeem (x2) and Dan Henderson. Nogueira is now 23-9 and after the second loss to Shogun he has been involved in four knockouts – Wins over Pat Cummins and Sam Alvey and losses to Ryan Bader and Ryan Spann.
PREDICTION
It is a shame that this fight is not in Brazil, but they will be grateful to fight in the current conditions. Nogueira has hinted that his will be his last fight and although it would be great for him to get a win back, Shogun is expected to come out on top again.
Do not expect strategies to earn points, they are both expected to come out swinging and end the night quickly with a knockout where Shogun’s speed and power may be too much for Nogueira.
Winner: Shogun via KO/TKO
Fabricio Werdum vs Alexander Gustafsson
Thankfully for the fans, Alexander Gustafsson comes out of retirement and excitingly he is embarking on a new challenge up at heavyweight. The problem, he has the former champion Fabricio Werdum for his first test.
The best heavyweight Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner to grace MMA, and the man that toppled two of the best heavyweights of all time – Fedor Emelianenko and Cain Velasquez in their prime, Werdum has done it all but that form seems a distant memory based on his last two fights. He fought once in 2018 and got knocked out by Alexander Volkov and then after serving a drug ban, he returned in May this year and lost a lacklustre decision to Alexey Oleynik.
Gustafsson has also forgotten that winning feeling as his last victory was back in 2017 when he tee’d off on Glover Teixeira with a beautifully violent finish. The following year he got dominated and finished by Jon Jones in their rematch and then in 2019 he lost to Anthony Smith getting submitted in the fourth round.
PREDICTION
This is a fascinating match-up and will all come down to whether Werdum can take the Swede down. If he can, he will use his elite technique as well as the extra weight to wrap up a submission.
So, Gustafsson’s takedown defence is going to have to be flawless and that includes avoiding Werdum’s clinch. Gustafsson’s cannot take any chances with Werdum’s power despite a clear difference in striking technique.
Gustafsson will not boast his usual significant reach advantage but will still have two inches on Werdum which will be important. For Gustafsson to return he must be motivated, and he has the speed, boxing and takedown defence to seal a decision.
Winner: Gustafsson via Decision
Carla Esparza vs Marina Rodriguez
Carla Esparza and Marina Rodriguez get the green light after their original date for UFC Fight Night 172 was postponed due to one of Rodriguez’ conrnermen testing positive for COVID-19.
Esparza continues to churn out decisions and after succumbing to Claudia Gadelha and Tatiana Suarez in 2018, she has responded with a comfortable decision over Virna Jandiroba and two much tighter calls against Alexa Grasso and Michelle Waterson.
Rodriguez’ is an exciting talent and boasts an unbeaten record. The UFC is the real litmus test for female fighters, but she has already proven herself against some of the best. She battled to a draw on her debut against Randa Markos and then went on to earn decisions against Jessica Aguilar and Tecia Torres. She is now coming off another draw, but she took Cynthia Calvillo to the bell and was as dangerous as ever on the feet.
PREDICTION
For Rodriguez, this is a similar stylistic match up to Calvillo in the sense she planned to avoid the takedown and light her up with her superior striking. When Rodriguez and Calvillo were on the feet, the Brazilian was constantly a threat and was lethal in the clinch landing far more damage.
Calvillo had a clear wrestling advantage like Esparza will but only landed three takedowns in the fight. However, the difference here is that Calvillo only attempted four takedowns and backed her striking whereas Esparza will shoot in for the takedown as soon and as often as possible.
Rodriguez is clearly the better striker but any holes in her takedown defence will be exploited by Esparza who will be relentless and happily maintain top control until the bell rings.
Winner: Esparza via Decision
Paul Craig vs Gadzhimurad Antigulov
Paul Craig heads to Fight Island coming off the first decision of his career which was a draw with Shogun Rua. It was a great fight with nobody expecting it to go the distance and a draw against this legend was an achievement. He now wants to gain some momentum and build of this and the submission win and ‘performance of the night’ over Vinicius Moreira a couple months prior.
Antigulov is in the unfamiliar territory of a two-fight skid. After riding a 14-fight win streak including two submissions in his first two UFC fights against Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Joachim Christensen, Antigulov experienced a further step-up in competition meeting deadly strikers, Ion Cutelaba and Michal Oleksiejczuk and getting knocked out both times.
PREDICTION
Usually when two grapplers at the top of the game clash, their skills often cancel each other out forcing a stand-up battle but we could easily see both these guys hunt a finish on the mat. Craig has the jiu-jitsu advantage but Antigulov has the wrestling advantage and it will be fascinating to see who wins the early exchanges and if they spend much time on the feet.
These guys do not do decisions. They try to finish the fight as quickly as possible and Antigulov will be most dangerous on the feet and in the first round. If Craig, can survive the first round, he can capitalise on the the Russian’s suspect gas tank and pull off a late finish.
Winner: Craig via Submission
Alex Oliveira vs Peter Sobotta
Peter Sobotta returns after over two years out and has a very tough return facing Alex Oliveira.
Sobotta’s last appearance was in March 2017 where he lost to Leon Edwards preventing a three-fight win streak. He claimed two very impressive wins – a decision over Nicolas Dalby and a knockout of Ben Saunders but became part of Edwards’ superb unbeaten run and has since taken time off focusing on new family members, personal ventures and recovering from injuries.
Oliveira has been far more active and is coming off a hard-fought split decision win over Max Griffin. Oliveira is not one to feel pressure but that win came with great relief after losing three in a row to Gunnar Nelson (submission), Mike Perry (decision) and Nicolas Dalby (decision).
PREDICTION
This is bound to be an exciting fight. Sobotta cannot wait to get back in the octagon and Oliveira always comes to put on a show. For Sobotta this should not be too dissimilar to the Edwards fight with Olveira bringing a pace with powerful punches and kicks while mixing in takedown attempts.
Sobotta is expected to test the Brazilian right up until the bell but to get past Oliveira after all this time out is a tall order and he is expected to squeak out another decision.
Winner: Oliveira via Decision
Khamzat Chimaev vs Rhys McKee
Khamzat Chimaev does not want to leave Fight Island after his flawless UFC debut just last week. Arriving to the UFC 6-0 with six finishes, Chimaev met John Phillips who is a lethal striker, but the debutant took him down immediately, dominated the Welshman and eventually submitted him in the second round.
Chimaev was desperate for another fight while on Fight Island and his wish has been granted as Rhys McKee now steps up for his UFC debut. The Northern Irishman has made waves in the BAMMA and Cage Warriors promotions and gained a lot of fans with his exciting style. He is also full of confidence coming off three finishes in a row under the Cage Warriors banner.
PREDICTION
McKee is going to need every ounce of that confidence as Chimaev is an absolute beast and his wrestling will be a worry for everybody in the division. His mauling of Phillips took place at middleweight so if he can make the 170 lb mark for this fight, he should be an even bigger force.
Chimaev will be the favourite and rightly so but expect McKee to put up a great fight. He is thrilling to watch and if he can create any space, he will be a threat striking from distance. However, Chimaev is expected to waste no time in dragging the McKee to the canvas and hunting another finish on the mat whether that be a submission or knockout via ground and pound.