UFC 252 - Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC 252? Sunday 16th August, 2020 – 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 252? APEX Facility, Las Vegas, Nevada
What channel is UFC Fight 252 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 252? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ which can you sign up to here!
Stipe Miocic vs Daniel Cormier 3
The climax of the trilogy is here as Stipe Miocic and Daniel Cormier (DC) settle the score.
Miocic - the man with the most UFC heavyweight title defences in history was denied a fourth defence back in July of 2018 at UFC 226. DC stepped up from light heavyweight and continued his unbeaten heavyweight record spectacularly with a calculated knockout in the first round placing the new heavyweight strap proudly on the opposite shoulder to his light heavyweight title.
One year and seven months of Miocic hounding the UFC for a rematch, he was granted his wish after DC easily defended the title against Derrick Lewis. The fight continued where they left off with DC edging the stand-up battle neglecting his wrestling but Miocic toughed it out and adapted like a champion by attacking DC’s body setting up the fourth-round finish.
PREDICTION
The stage is set for the most compelling heavyweight trilogy of all time. They each have a knockout, but DC got the better of Miocic over the five rounds stats wise. DC landed 206 (67% accuracy) significant strikes to Miocic’s 147 (53% accuracy).
Miocic landed more takedowns but DC is undeniably the better wrestler, and this is expected to be the difference this time around. They both surprised each other with their striking ability and with the smaller cage in the APEX facility, DC is expected to include more wrestling this time around.
If Miocic controls the range the knockout is there for him. He is the better striker but lacked a bit of fight IQ until that fourth round so if he keeps moving and controls the range, the fight will start and finish on the feet.
However, a back injury had plagued DC’s preparations for both fights but now he will stop at nothing to get this win even if it means wrestling for five rounds. He was also dealing with his terminally ill stepfather who passed away after the fight but now his preparations have gone smoother, he has done less media work and putting everything into getting this final win.
We successfully predicted a Miocic knockout in their last fight and that can easily happen again but the factors mentioned swing this in DC’s favour and it feels like he is more motivated for this than any fight he has had before hoping to leave end his stellar career on a high.
Winner: Cormier via Decision
Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera
Sean O’Malley has all the hype right now coming off that spectacular walk-off knockout over Eddie Wineland two months ago and the UFC are clearly big fans placing him on the co-main event. All the hype comes from boasting an unbeaten record with an exciting skill set and rocketing from score behind only the champion Petr Yan.
Marlon Vera represents a substantial step-up in standard. His form was also surging after five finishes in a row (three knockouts and two submissions) but he is coming off a loss to Song Yadong. He somehow lost the fight via a unanimous decision, but the it was very close and few people would have raised an eyebrow of the decision went in Vera’s favour.
PREDICTION
We are well aware of Vera’s submission threat and O’Malley is very underrated on the ground, but this fight is likely to take place on the feet.
If O’Malley can get past Vera in any way, the hype is real. Vera will force the pace which could get him in trouble. The range, movement and accuracy of O’Malley is the difference and with the rate in which he is improving, we could easily see another knockout.
Winner: O’Malley via KO/TKO
Junior dos Santos vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Junior dos Santos and Jairzinho Rozenstruik have received a royal taste of their own medicine of late both coming off knockouts.
The former heavyweight champion is coming off two in fact, firstly to Francis Ngannou and most recently the shock finish against Curtis Blaydes. Everyone gets slept by Ngannou but getting knocked out on the feet by Blaydes was a real shock and losing five of his last 10 has sees dos Santos in the bottom half of the form table.
It was Rozenstruik’s turn to experience the wrath of Ngannou’s power in his last fight. The accomplished kickboxer was in soaring form sitting proudly on a 10-0 record with nine knockouts prior but was left a crumpled heap in 20 seconds. Now, him and dos Santos hope to dust themselves off and get back in the win column.
PREDICTION
On paper, this is an exceptional match-up. Two world class, technical strikers with unholy power. The real question is how much damage they can take as dos Santos’ chin has racked up a lot of miles on the clock and Rozenstruik was sent into another dimension in his last fight.
Dos Santos is the better all round mixed martial artist with more tools and experience and it would be a great time to showcase his grappling. Although he will not have to worry about being taken down this time, his last fight was a real worry and Rozenstruik only needs to find the chin once. Their offence is never in doubt but their defence will have to be flawless here and dos Santos has looked more vulnerable recently.
Winner: Rozenstruik via KO/TKO
John Dodson vs Merab Dvalishvili
Suffering two losses in a row for the first time in his career, John Dodson was under a lot pressure facing top prospect Nathaniel Wood back in June. However, the crafty veteran proved he still has it after pulling of a third-round knockout derailing Wood and gaining some form points back.
After those two controversial losses to Frankie Saenz and Ricky Simon, Merab Dvalishvili has displayed all his potential racking up four wins in dominating fashion. He has grappled his way to four unanimous decisions boosting his form score and setting a bantamweight takedown record (12) against Casey Kenney and then breaking it (13) in his last fight with Gustavo Lopez.
PREDICTION
This is Dvalishvili’s toughest match-up to date. We know the the Georgian is a beast of a grappler, but Dodson is known for being one of the quickest and most illusive fighters in the UFC.
The contest will a cat and mouse chase to see if Dvalishvili can get his hands on Dodson while evading the knockout threat. Dodson will make it difficult but Dvalishvili is expected to win the chase and grind out another decision.