UFC 253 - Fight Island - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC 253? Sunday 27th September, 2020 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 253? Flash Forum, Fight Island, Abu Dhabi (UAE)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 253? No tickets are available as this event will take place without spectators
What channel is UFC 253 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 253? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ISRAEL ADESANYA VS PAULO COSTA
Fight Island is back, kicking off with UFC 253 which is headlined by the undefeated middleweight champion and his new undefeated challenger, Paulo Costa.
The Last Stylebender is 19-0 (8-0 in the UFC) and makes his second middleweight title defence. He won the interim title after his epic war with Kelvin Gastelum and then unified it with his most impressive performance to date, finishing Robert Whittaker in the second round and snapping his super impressive nine fight winning streak. Adesanya then made his first defence against Yoel Romero and although it was an uneventful fight, he played it perfectly to get the win.
Barring his loss on The Ultimate Fighter Brazil in 2014, Costa is also undefeated professionally boasting a 13-0 (5-0 UFC) record. Borrachinha is also a striking specialist but of a different kind, bulldozing through his first four UFC opponents with knockouts and is coming off another unanimous decision win over Yoel Romero but this was a war, meeting the Cuban head-on with his strengths and coming out victorious taking everything he had to offer.
PREDICTION
Two striking specialists of contrasting styles. We have the calculated Adesanya with masterful Kickboxing technique against the aggressive bundle of dynamite. Adesanya will boast an eight-inch arm and five-inch leg reach advantage and on paper, he has all the tools and technique to hand Costa his first loss.
Adesanya has the perfect style for Costa who usually walks straight forward into his opponents, happy to eat shots knowing he has the power to put them away. Adesanya is expected to be patient for the first two rounds to get a read on Costa and download the all the data he needs to know what range to defend and what range to attack.
Adesanya’s counter striking is the antithesis to Costa’s style and as long as he can defend the body kicks and getting pinned to the fence, he will be favoured to get a knockout of his own.
He has been striking at the highest level for a long time and arguably there is no one better at counter striking in the UFC right now. He has the calmness and experience to expertly move and be the matador for Costa and after a round or two we can expect him to offload with his own sniping accuracy.
Costa looks more dangerous with every fight, he is unbeaten and has a lot more power but, do not be surprised if Adesanya makes this look easy.
Winner: Adesanya via KO/TKO
DOMINICK REYES VS JAN BLACHOWICZ
Jon Jones has vacated the light heavyweight title - step up Dominick Reyes and Jan Blachowicz.
Reyes’ last fight was his decision loss to Jones for the title and he gave an incredible account of himself against the greatest light heavyweight of all time and the scorecards were harsh on him. That was is first pro loss after 12 fights and few gave him a chance against Jones, but he proved he is championship calibre.
The 37 year-old, Blachowicz has been around for a hot minute and makes his 15th UFC appearance. His last loss was a knockout courtesy of Thiago Santos in 2019 which snapped a four-fight winning streak but he has responded with a glorious knockout over Luke Rockhold, a hard-fought split decision over Jacare Souza and is now coming off another glorious knockout, folding Corey Anderson in the first round to earn this title shot.
PREDICTION
This will be the start of a new era in the light heavyweight division with veterans and up and comers all waiting in line for the next shot at the title. Blachowicz has more experience and Reyes has all the youth and confidence believing he beat Jones and should already be the champion.
Reyes is an explosive southpaw with a powerful straight left and monster kick with great takedown defence and Blachowicz is a very strong grappler with a switch stance and proven knockout power in both hands.
Despite Blachowicz jiu-jitsu skills, this fight is likely to play out on the feet. Reyes’ takedown defence is exceptional and Blachowicz has never been more confident on the feet with his recent knockouts.
Over the course of a five-found battle on the feet, Reyes will be favoured with his endurance and the timing of his striking making the difference. The damage from Reyes’ left hand and foot will build up but Blachowicz has his own power and will likely try and tie Reyes up the clinch when he can.
A knockout is very possible either way but also likely to be a gritty, hard-fought battle right up until the bell.
Winner: Reyes via Decision
KAI KARA-FRANCE VS BRANDON ROYVAL
Another soldier of City Kickboxing marching to Fight Island is Kai Kara-France. He comes off the 21st and ninth decision win of his career (Tyson Nam) which was in response to his first loss in nine fights - a unanimous decision to Brandon Moreno in December last year.
The submission wizard Brandon Royval who made his name in the Legacy Fighting Alliance is the man lined up for Kara-France with just one UFC fight under his belt. However, he tied up the veteran grappler Tim Elliott in an arm-triangle in the second round to make it three wins in a row.
PREDICTION
This should be a great fight as both fighters are thrilling to watch with exceptional skill sets.
Royval is a dangerous southpaw with an array of attacks in the arsenal but his bread and butter is his jiu-jitsu and is extremely dangerous off his back. Kara-France is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but his bread and butter is his striking so wherever this fight goes we can expect it to be a high-level, high-paced war.
Royval will have taken note of Moreno’s performance as he is also a southpaw. After he bagged the points, Royval knows he needs to be aggressive and counter Kara-France at every opportunity. However, Moreno is a beast with a great chin and keeping up with Kara-France for 15 minutes is a tall order for Royval. Kara-France will have learned a lot from that fight but he also knows he has to respect Royval's ground skills.
Winner: Kara-France via Decision
KETLEN VIEIRA VS SIJARA EUBANKS
Marion Reneau has pulled out of her fight with Ketlen Vieira but fortunately Sijara Eubanks has taken her seat on the plane to Fight Island.
Vieira looked like a serious future contender for the bantamweight title and she still is but suffered a big setback and the first loss of her career back in December last year. At 10-0 with four fantastic UFC wins in the book including a unanimous decision over Ashlee Evans-Smith, a submission over Sara McMann and a split decision over Cat Zingano, she got slept by the savage left hook of Irene Aldana.
Eubanks is fresh off her win over Julia Avila only two weeks ago at UFC Vegas 11. It looks like Eubanks is finally starting to fulfil her potential after two losses to Aspen Ladd and Bethe Correia saw her record slump to 4-4. With these unanimous decisions including the one over Sarah Moras, a win over Vieira will see her catapult up the rankings.
PREDICTION
Eubanks is underrated and the more active she is the better, but Vieira is arguably her toughest match-up to date. Vieira only boasts a one-inch reach advantage, but she is the bigger, stronger woman.
Eubanks is an exceptional grappler and high-level black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but Vieira is a grappling beast. Wrestling, judo, jiu-jitsu, she has it all and with the size advantage she should be able to control Eubanks if Vieira decides to take the fight to the floor.
We also know both ladies love to stand and trade. Eubanks is the better boxer and her route to victory is keeping the fight standing and look to earn the points with a higher output and landing more.
That said, we are likely to see a mixture of stand-up, clinch work and takedowns. The stand-up will be a close contest but as good as Eubanks’ grappling is, Vieira has the technique to throw, trip and drag her to the ground, obtain top position, controlling her with her power earning a decision.
Winner: Vieira via Decision
HAKEEM DAWODU VS ZUBAIRA TUKHUGOV
One of the most exciting prospects in the featherweight division makes his first appearance of 2020 and what better occasion to make it than on the stacked card on Fight Island. Hakeem Dawodu only has one loss on the record getting caught in a Danny Henry guillotine. That was in 2018 and he has since racked up four impressive wins – Austin Arnett (unanimous decision), Kyle Bochniak (split decision), Yoshinori Horie (TKO) and Julio Arce (split decision).
Zubaira Tukhugov makes his second appearance of the year coming off that huge win and TKO over Kevin Aguilar back in February which came after his draw with Lerone Murphy. These results came after a three year lay-off which involved a ban due to sucker punching Conor McGregor at UFC 229. Despicable action but he still has a job in the UFC and that draw and loss are his only blemishes in his last 12 fights.
PREDICTION
Dawodu is an electric striker with great takedown defence. Tukhugov is a Dagenstani product so he has immense grappling so the obvious strategy for him is to avoid Dawodu’s stand-up threat by taking him down, keeping him there and pouring on the damage with ground-and-pound.
However, Tukhugov has begun to really favour his left hand which is understandable as it is an absolute bomb. The win is there for him if he decides to grapple for 15 minutes but if he goes for the knockout, Dawodu will be too illusive, too quick and counter at will with his vast array of attacks.
Dawodu’s dynamism, speed and explosiveness will be too much for Tukhugov but only if he can keep the distance.
Winner: Dawodu via Decision
BRAD RIDDELL VS ALEX DA SILVA
Brad Riddell flies to Fight Island with his City Kickboxing team who are polluting the UFC 253 card and it is great to see Riddell in particular. He has a very promising record of 8-1 but it was his last outing that really got people to stand up and take notice. He took on the beast striker Magomed Mustafaev who was the heavy favourite but just as we predicted, Riddell got the better of him in a stand-up war earning the decision.
Alex da Silva heads to Fight Island coming off his first UFC win. He beat Rodrigo Vargas in a unanimous decision which was in response to the second loss of his career and UFC debut where he got submitted by Alexander Yakovlev. He now has a huge task in extending his impressive record of 21-2 but a win will prove he is the real deal.
PREDICTION
Only one of da Silva’s wins has gone to a decision, he is a finisher with knockout power and a slick submission game. He has a huge right hand and and kick, but he is better off making this ugly by tying Riddell up with his grappling.
Riddell is on a different level technique-wise with his strong kickboxing and Muay Thai background and if da Silva throws wild shots with his chin exposed, Riddell will eat him up all day.
Riddell is technically sound and has cardio for days, so you have to back him in a stand-up battle despite the threat da Silva possesses. The scrappier the Brazilian makes this, the more chance he has, especially if the fight goes to the mat but we are backing Riddell to earn an attritional decision.
Winner: Riddell via Decision
DIEGO SANCHEZ VS JAKE MATTHEWS
Diego Sanchez walks out for his 32nd UFC fight which is an incredible feat. He obviously will not enjoy long winning streaks at this stage in his career, but he is still a tough fighter. After getting absolutely starched by Al Iaquinta and Matt Brown in 2017, he responded with a decision over Craig White and a brilliant TKO over Mickey Gall. However, he then got dominated by Michael Chiesa and Michel Pereira but walked away with a win over Pereira after eating an illegal knee resulting in a disqualification.
Since his submission loss to Rocco MArtin in 2018, we have only seen Jake Matthews twice in the cage. So, it is great to see him back especially as he has so much more potential to fill. He fought once in 2019, picking up a unanimous decision over Rostem Akamn and then returned in February this year against Emil Weber Meek clinching another dominant decision.
PREDICTION
At this point in Sanchez’ career, he needs favourable match ups to win, especially at welterweight and Matthews is not one of them. Matthews will only have a one-inch reach advantage over Sanchez, but he is the bigger, stronger and quicker man.
Sanchez looked great against Gall and White, but Matthews should have too much strength for him in the grappling department and he has the technique on the feet to avoid any trouble.
Matthews is more of a submission threat than a knockout threat, but Sanchez has never been submitted in his 42 fights and still has the durability to drag this out to the bell.
Winner: Matthews via Decision
SHANE YOUNG VS LUDOVIT KLEIN
The first member of City Kickboxing up on the Fight Island card is Shane Young who has not fought since February of 2019 and was originally scheduled to fight Nate Landwehr but he had to pull out due to testing positive for COVID-19. Fortunately Young still has a fight and as he is desperate to build on his momentum of two straight wins (Rolando Dy – TKO and Austin Arnett – unanimous decision) so hopefully he is able to fight more than once a year from now.
The man filling in for Landwehr and making his UFC debut is one of the most promising prospects in Europe - Ludovit Klein. He arrives to the octagon with a healthy 16-2 record riding an impressive seven-fight win streak. Most of his recent wins have come under the Oktagon MMA banner in his native Slovakia with his last three fights ending via knockout – Willian Lima, Joao Paulo Rodrigues and Lukasz Sajewski.
PREDICTION
Young has the UFC experience and will be the favourite, but this is a very tough match-up especially with little time prepare for a southpaw.
Klein has finished 15 of his 16 wins (seven knockouts and eight submissions). He is a well-rounded killer with a ferocious clinch and left high kick and we do not know how smoothly his preparations have gone as he heads to Fight Island, but he is more than ready for the call-up.
With Young making his return and Klein making his debut, they will no doubt leave everything behind in the octagon and we have a feeling Klein may just cause the upset on his debut. He will hunt the finish as usual but Young will make this a battle.
Winner: Klein via Decision
WILLIAM KNIGHT VS ALEKSA CAMUR
William Knight was firmly on the UFC’s radar back in August 2019. He rose to 5-0 after his racking up his fifth consecutive TKO on Dana White’s Contender Series putting Herdem Alacabek away in the third round. He impressed but the UFC wanted a few more fights out of him before awarding a contract and he is now coming off another TKO win on the Contender Series three weeks ago over Cody Brundage. He is now 8-1 winning all his fights via TKO.
Aleksa Camur also got the UFC deal after impressing on Dana White’s Contender Series. He met Fabio Cherant in July last year countering a left hook with a spectacular flying knee to switch the lights out. He then met Justin Ledet for his UFC debut earning the first decision of his career to go 6-0.
PREDICTION
A combined record of 14-1 with 13 knockout wins. They are a little green, but they are going to trade some serious leather.
They are both incredibly powerful and explosive. Camur has all the confidence in his hands but Knight has to watch out for what new tools he has in the locker especially after to seeing that flying knee. Knight is a freak specimen. He stands at 5’10” and used to way 297 lbs but now is a chiselled and athletic beast.
We are likely to see both fighters stand and trade until one man gets put to sleep. It can go either way but if Knight gets off to a slow start again, the fight will be over before he knows it. Camur will also have to be careful of Knights ferocious power, especially from the bottom. He cannot afford to have Knight over him on the mat, raining down punches as it will be game over for him too.
Winner: Camur via KO/TKO
JUAN ESPINO VS JEFF HUGHES
Finally, Juan Espino is back after nearly two years out suffering with a troublesome hand injury. Back in 2018, he had a lot of steam behind him winning The Ultimate Fighter 28 promising to make a big impact on the shallow heavyweight division. The Spaniard dominated Justin Frazier in the finale finishing him with an armbar to extend his winning streak to seven.
The man lined up for his return is Jeff Hughes who is without a UFC win in his three outings. He came to the UFC with a 10-1 record but has suffered a split decision loss to Maurice Green, a ‘no contest’ with Todd Duffee and unanimous decision loss to Raphael Pessoa.
PREDICTION
If the UFC gave ‘tune-up- fights this would be one for Espino but in the heavyweight division, there are little other options at the moment. Espino is the clear favourite and is expected to use his wrestling to get Hughes to the ground and keep him there while looking for a finish.
Anything can happen with heavyweights and four oz gloves, but Espino is expected to mark his return with a dominant win.
Winner: Espino via Submission
KHADIS IBRAGIMOV VS DANILO MARQUES
Khadis Ibragimov arrived to the UFC with some serious pedigree as the M-1 light heavyweight champion but he has had a rough time in the octagon. He arrived with an 8-0 record but got submitted on his debut against Da Un Jung, then lost a unanimous decision to Ed Herman and is coming off a violent knockout courtesy of a Roman Dolidze knee.
Danilo Marques makes his UFC debut. The 34-year-old Brazilian is 9-2 and is coming off two wins for the Gladiator Combat Fight promotion although his last fight was in February 2018. He submitted Marck Polimeno in July 2017 and that latest win is a unanimous decision against Cleiton Caetano.
PREDICTION
Marques is buzzing to make his debut but after a long spell out the game and now making the step-up to the UFC, it is unclear what kind of shape he is in. He has three inches of height on Ibragimov but has virtually the same reach.
All the pressure is on Ibragimov. He is expected to and on paper, he has all the tools to get the win but four wins in a row and to a rusty newcomer could spell the end of his UFC career. That said, we are backing him to get the much-needed win and show off the skills that got him to the UFC.