UFC Fight Island 4 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Island 4? Sunday 4th October, 2020 - 01:30 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Island 4? Flash Forum, Fight Island, Abu Dhabi (UAE)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Island 4? No tickets are available as this event will take place without spectators
What channel is UFC Fight Island 4 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Fight Island 4? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
HOLLY HOLM VS IRENE ALDANA
Holly Holm headlines her sixth UFC event but after the infamous knockout of Ronda Rousey, Holm has gone 3-5 including four title fights losing all of them. That said, she has fought some of the best bantamweight and featherweights of all time including, Miesha Tate, Valentina Shevchenko, Germaine de Randamie, Cris Cyborg and Amanda Nunes. Her last fight at 145 lbs was a unanimous decision over Megan Anderson and with few contenders for Nunes, she was awarded a title shot back down at 135 lbs but got poleaxed with a head kick. However, she bounced back well in her last fight beating Raquel Pennington for the second time.
Irene Aldana cannot wait to square up against the biggest name on her resume so far especially after pulling out of their originally scheduled bout in August for Fight Night 173 due to a positive COVID-19 test. Aldana is now 5-3 in the UFC but she has shown tremendous improvements in recent fights. After Pennington snapped a three-fight win streak with a tight split decision, Aldana has gone on to earn a unanimous decision over Vanessa Melo and is now coming off the biggest win of her career, knocking out Ketlen Vieira who was unbeaten at the time.
PREDICTION
Despite the poor form, Holm is clearly still at the top of the food chain only losing to the cream of the crop and this is a good stylistic match-up for her to prove that. They are both striking specialists with exceptional boxing. Holm is a decorated boxer who has added phenomenal kicks to her game and Aldana has that rare knockout power in her hands.
This should be a fascinating stand-up battle and they match up very similarly physically. The difference here will be the movement and cardio of Holm. Aldana needs to get in to range to unleash her power but Holm’s footwork and combinations with kicks will make it very hard for Aldana to get in the pocket for any length of time.
Expect to see the rounds ticks away with Holm frustrating Aldana avoiding her power and as we get into the championship rounds, Holm should finish stronger. Aldana has only gone past the third once in her career which was back in 2015, whereas Holm is tried and tested in five rounders.
Holm gets the nod for another decision, but you cannot sleep on Aldana with her power and the rate she is improving.
Prediction: Holm via Decision
YORGAN DE CASTRO VS CARLOS FELIPE
The rotund slugger from Cape Verde makes his return to the cage after suffering the first loss of his career to go 6-1. He ended up losing a unanimous decision to Greg Hardy back in May which came after his memorable UFC debut in Mebourne where he buried Justin Tafa with a frightening knockout.
Brazilian, Carlos Felipe replaces Ben Sosoli and makes his second visit to Fight Island but also suffered the first loss of his career to go 8-1. This was his UFC debut against Sergey Spivak who clinched a majority decision to end Felipe’s unbeaten run and streak of two knockouts.
PREDICTION
Two stand-up specialists with knockout power will create an exciting battle on the feet for as long as it lasts. Felipe is a dynamic striker and lit up the Brazilian scene, but the UFC is a big step-up.
De Castro looked great against Hardy, patiently countering and unleashing thunderous leg kicks but the fight slipped away from him after injuring his foot from a checked kick. We expect him to bring the same poise and patience into this fight waiting to counter with venom knowing Felipe will be aggressive.
Prediction: De Castro via KO/TKO
GERMAINE DE RANDAMIE VS JULIANNA PENA
Germaine de Randamie returns after her title fight loss to Amanda Nunes back in December last year. That loss snapped a five-fight winning streak including wins over Holly Holm, Raquel Pennington and Aspen Ladd, but she was very inactive fighting only once a year. In fact, she has only fought six times in seven years.
Another bantamweight who has really struggled just to make the walk to the octagon is Julianna Pena. After a catastrophic knee injury in 2014 tearing every ligament you can think of, Pena has only fought five times. She steamrolled Milana Dudieva and bagged the biggest wins of her career with vintage performances and unanimous decisions over Jessica Eye and Cat Zingano. She then bet the weapon that is Valentina Shevchenko in 2017 getting submitted and then took some time off giving birth but made her return in July last year banking the points again against Nicco Montano.
PREDICTION
A classic striker vs grappler match-up. De Randamie is the kickboxing and Muay Thai specialist and Pena is a beast of a wrestler with strong jiu-jitsu and ground-and-pound.
So, this will all come down to de Randamie’s takedown defence which is 71% in the UFC. When up against opponents who have grappled, she has had mixed fortunes. She stuffed all eight of Pennington’s takedown attempts and knocked out Aspen before she got a chance but when Nunes decided to grapple, she took her down eight out of 11 times and kept her down.
Pena has a 52% takedown accuracy but has succeeded in taking down all her UFC opponents so far and just needs one early in each round to take the fight away from de Randamie.
De Randamie needs to be aggressive and we could see a lot of clinch work here with Pena trying to drag her to the mat but de Randamie has a strong and offensive clinch herself. This will be a close fight and Pena’s only chance is to grind her way to a decision whereas de Randamie has the knockout threat and the longer she can avoid the takedown, the more damage she will land on the feet.
Prediction: De Randamie via Decision
DEQUAN TOWNSEND VS DUSKO TODOROVIC
Dequan Townsend flies to Fight Island hoping to prevent a four-fight skid. He arrived to the UFC 21-8 coming off a submission over Wyman Carter for Total Warrior Combat but got pummelled on his UFC debut by Dalcha Lungiambula suffering his first knockout loss. He then went on to lose two unanimous decisions to Bevon Lewis and Devin Clark.
It’s Dusko Todorovic’s turn to make his long-awaited UFC debut. The Serbian earned the contract by outpointing Teddy Ash on Dana White’s Contender Series in August last year which extended his unbeaten record. Prior to his last fight, he looked exceptional finishing every one of his opponents (five knockouts and three submissions) including a TKO of Michel Pereira but he has been rather inactive with his nine fights spanning over five years.
PREDICTION
All the pressure is on Townsend desperately seeking a win. This could make him more cagey but he has to stick to his strengths and be aggressive. He has a five-inch reach advantage over Todorovic but has to use it wisely and not rush into the Serbian’s range.
This is not a great match-up for him as Todorovic is solid everywhere and he has been waiting for this moment for a long time. He has very strong grappling to call upon and the technique and power to cause Townsend problems on the feet.
If Townsend gets reckless and does not use his range well, Todorovic will wait for that chin to be exposed and hunt it down. The Serbian is the favourite, but Townsend will give it everything fighting for his UFC career and in memory of his brothers who tragically passed away in August.
Prediction: Todorovic via KO/TKO
KYLER PHILLIPS VS CAMERON ELSE
Kyler Phillips makes his second trip to Fight Island hoping to mark his second UFC appearance with another win. He arrived to the UFC at 6-1 bouncing back from the first loss of his career against Victor Henry with a spectacular head kick knockout over Emeka Ifekandu for the Legacy Fighting Alliance. He then made it two in a row with a unanimous decision win over Gabriel Silva in February.
He welcomes Cameron Else for his UFC debut. The Brit is is 10-4 riding a six-fight win streak and has finished all 10 of his wins inside the first round (six knockouts and four submissions). With his latest win a submission over Brad Evans back in February under the Fusion Fighting Championship banner.
PREDICTION
The former paratrooper, Else will be the underdog but he is a very dangerous man. He has legit power in his hands complimented by a slick ground game and we can expect to come out the gate like a gun.
Else has so much potential but he needs to approach Phillips with a game plan based around avoiding/countering his kicks and on paper, he is his toughest opponent. If Phillips can weather the early storm, he will be favourite to finish stronger earning a decision at least but there is a fire in Else and we have a feeling he could cause the upset with an early knockout.
Prediction: Else via KO/TKO
CARLOS CONDIT VS COURT MCGEE
The highlight of this card is arguably Carlos Condit’s return. However, all of his fans will be as nervous as his title shot with Robbie Lawler back in 2016 as that narrow split decision loss was the start of a heart breaking five-fight skid. That title fight epitomised why Condit is a fan favourite, displaying all of his immense talent and heart in an epic war. Unfortunately, he went on to get submitted by Demian Maia the same year and his only outing in 2017 was a unanimous decision loss to Neil Magny. The run continued with his two submission losses in 2018 to Alex Oliveira and Michael Chiesa and is now 2-8 in his last 10.
McGee is not in the finest form himself going 4-6 in his last 10 and 1-4 in his last five. He had two fights in 2017 losing unanimous decisions to Ben Saunders and Sean Strickland but bagged a much-needed win and unanimous decision over Alex Garcia but then lost two more decisions to Dhiego Lima and Sean Brady who was his last fight a year ago.
PREDICTION
We do not quite know how they will perform as they are past their prime and have not fought for a hot minute. That said, we know Condit will try and keep the fight standing to light McGee up on the feet who is likely to look for a takedown if he starts to eat one too many shots.
This could be a slow-paced grappling contest with McGee looking to tie up Condit for as long as possible or we could see a war with both men trading, letting everything go knowing this will be one of their last walks to the octagon. Let’s hope for the latter.
Prediction: Condit via Decision
CHARLES JOURDAIN VS JOSH CULIBAO
After ruining Doo Ho Choi’s return back in December last year with that brilliant second round knockout, Charles Jourdain built up some steam but he met Andre Fili who just edged him with a split decision in an exciting stand-up battle. He is now 10-3 but has lost two of his three UFC fights now and really needs another win to make any progress in the division.
The man looking to halt that progression is Josh Culibao who also lost his UFC debut and is hungry to prove he belongs in the organisation. That loss came against Jalin Turner who finished him via TKO and it was the first loss of his career breaking an eight-fight run which included five knockouts and his striking pedigree provides a fantastic match-up.
PREDICTION
This fight is going under the radar as it is destined to be a banger. The southpaw Jourdain and the orthodox Culibao are both very talented and exciting strikers who are going to throw heat looking for the knockout.
Look out for Culibao’s leg kicks as he is expected to attack Jourdain’s lead right leg. The Aussie also uses his grappling very well to set up his striking and an important factor will be his reach advantage.
Jourdain struggled with reach of Fili who did a great job in just getting out of Jourdain’s punch and kicking range. Jourdain has a 69-inch reach to Filli’s 74 and Culibao has a 73-inch reach but that will only be useful if he uses it well with movement.
This is likely to be a back and forth war with a potential knockout and it is very tough to call but Jourdain’s UFC experience gives him the slight edge.
Prediction: Jourdain via Decision
JORDAN WILLIAMS VS NASSOURDINE IMAVOV
Jordan Williams makes his UFC debut after knocking out Gregory Rodrigues on Dana White’s Contender Series only a couple weeks ago. It was third time lucky for Williams on the series who lost a split decision to Ramazan Kuramagomedov a year ago and prior in 2018 he finished Tim Caron, but the knockout win was overturned due to testing positive for marijuana. However, in between those fights he made his second appearance for Bellator and knocked out Diego Herzog.
From Dagestan but residing in France, Nassourdine Imavov steps up for his UFC debut riding a five-fight win streak. He has been making a name for himself on the European scene fighting for a variety of promotions and he is an exciting talent finishing all but one of his eight wins and he is coming off the third knockout of his career finishing Jonathan Meunier in the first round under the Ares Fighting Championship banner.
PREDICTION
These guys are both quality strikers and the majority of this fight should be played out on the feet but Imavov does have the grappling advantage. His patience will also be key as Williams is expected to start quickly and his power can change the fight instantly.
In their combined 23 fights, they have only gone to a decision four times. A decision or knockout could fall either way but Imavov's boxing and power could seal a decision or even a late knockout.
Prediction: Imavov via KO/TKO
LOMA LOOKBOONMEE VS JINH YU FREY
The Muay Thai champion, Loma Lookboonmee makes her second appearance of the year with the 24-year-old coming off her second pro MMA loss. She was 3-1 before arriving to the UFC and squeaked past Aleksandra Albu on her debut winning a split decision. She was then scheduled to fight Hannah Goldy back in February but Goldy had to pull out due to injury. However, Lookboonmee accepted a fight with UFC veteran Angela Hill and gave a great account of herself but lost a unanimous decision to go 4-2.
Her next assignment is Jinh Yu Frey who is also coming off a loss which came on her UFC debut getting submitted by Kay Hansen. Frey has fought the majority of her career for Invicta and was the former atomweight champion but although she won her last fight in a unanimous decision over Ashely Cummins, she missed weight and was stripped of the title.
PREDICTION
Lookboonmee’s striking and clinch is clearly at the top tier but what will hold her back in the UFC is her size as a natural atomweight. Frey is also an atomweight, but she will still have the size and weight advantage with two inches in height three and a half inches in reach.
That said, Frey will be one of the smaller fighters she will come up against in the UFC. She is also a striking specialist so this will be an exciting stand-up battle. Considering their power, this will most likely end in a decision, but it will be high pace and high volume.
Prediction: Lookboonmee via Decision
CASEY KENNEY VS HEILI ALATENG
Casey Kenney responded brilliantly to his first UFC loss by submitting Louis Smolka back in May. Merab Dvalishvili snapped his six-fight win streak but just the fact the UFC paired him up with the Georgian shows how much potential he has. His first two UFC fights were unanimous decision wins against Ray Borg and Manny Bermudez so the former Legacy Fighting Alliance bantamweight champion has amassed some priceless octagon experience already.
Heili Alateng heads to Fight Island on a four-fight win streak after winning his first two UFC fights – decisions over Danaa Batgerel and Ryan Benoit. His last loss was to Kai Asakura in 2017 who finished the China native with a first round TKO back in 2017. He then responded with two TKO’s of his own against IK Hwan Jang and Jong Hyun Kwak (all for the Road Fighting Championship) to earn the UFC contract.
PREDICTION
This is a tough fight for Alateng. Kenney is a monster grappler as a multiple time national champion in judo as well as winning state championships in freestyle and Greco-Roman wrestling.
Alateng is a good grappler himself and very well-rounded. He has a good chance if he can keep the fight standing but he needs an immaculate performance to avoid the takedowns and win the striking exchanges for three rounds.
Prediction: Kenney via Decision
JESSIN AYARI VS LUIGI VENDRAMINI
Jessin Ayari has not fought for two years and it is great to see him back. He was 16-3 after winning his UFC debut against Jim Wallhead back in 2016 but went on to lose his next two fights. He met Darren Till a year later and considering the size difference he did very well taking the now, middleweight to the bell. He then dropped down to lightweight to take on Stevie Ray and controversially lost another decision.
Luigi Vendramini also has not fought in two years and is coming off a loss which was the first of his career. After blazing through his first eight opponents with four knockouts and submissions he ran into the showstopper Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos on his UFC debut and ate a huge flying knee to suffer his first knockout.
PREDICTION
This is a great fight to kick off the Fight Island card. Ayari will want nothing more to sit in the pocket and trade with Vendramini. However, Vendramini has the speed and output to make it a very tough night for him on the feet but the key factor should be his grappling and he will look for any opportunity to take Ayari’s back looking for a choke.
This will be an exciting fight but Vendramini has more tools in the locker and may even mark his return with a finish.