UFC Vegas 11 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 11? Saturday 19th September, 2020 - 23:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 11? APEX Facility, Las Vegas, Nevada (US)
What channel is UFC Vegas 11? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 11? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
Colby Covington vs Tyron Woodley
After a lengthy spell of sitting at the top of the welterweight form table with Kamaru Usman, the champ finally knocked Colby Covington off his #2 perch in that epic title fight. Covington has slid down the table, but that super impressive winning streak means he is the highest ranked welterweight coming off a loss.
Tyron Woodley is the highest ranked fighter coming off two losses all due to his title run and reign. The form that saw him as one of the most in form pound-for-pound fighters in the UFC is a distant memory based on his last two fights where Usman and Gilbert Burns schooled him in decisions.
PREDICTION
This all depends on what Woodley turns up. The Woodley that we have seen in his last two outings will get outworked, out grappled and beaten up for five rounds. We know exactly what to expect from Covington and that will be a relentless, suffocating pace for a full five rounds breaking his opponent down with wrestling and constant combinations.
Woodley has exceptional takedown defence and knockout power, but we did not see any of that against Usman and Burns. Woodley has to let his hands go and his explosive rush forward with punches and that monster right hand will have to come out, at least to break the pace of Covington. He is more emotional going into this which may help him but any hesitancy to pull the trigger will land him another lacklustre decision loss.
Winner: Covington via Decision
Value Bet: Woodley via KO/TKO
Donald Cerrone vs Niko Price
Donald Cerrone and Niko Price are suffering some of the worst form in the division coming up against some of the biggest monsters in the division. Fortunately, you can throw form out the window for these two animals.
A four-fight skid can be terminal for a UFC career but not Cerrone as no fighter will likely ever be as active as him against elite competition. Price has only fought to a decision once in his career and even fighting the likes of Vicente Luque, Geoff Neal and Abdul Razak Alhassan, he always hunts the finish. In fact, out of their combined last 20 fights, 17 of them have been finished so we know we will be in for a war.
PREDICTION
What a fantastic match-up we have in Donald Cerrone and Niko Price. Cerrone is the clear favourite with all the experience, better technical striking and is a different class on the mat.
The question will be how motivated he is as Price is a mad man with ferocious knockout ability and killer instinct walking out for the biggest fight and name of his career.
If Cerrone decides to take the fight to the floor it will be over quickly, but Cowboy is expected to trade with Price where an upset knockout could easily happen considering the amount of shots Cerrone eats.
However, the lack of fans will suit Cerrone and limit any mistakes whereas Price usually thrives on the crowd and may taste the difference in class on the night.
Winner: Cerrone via Submission
Value bet: Cerrone via Submission
Khamzat Chimaev vs Gerald Meerschaert
The new rising star in the UFC, Khamzat Chimaev is hell bent on steam rolling through the welterweight and middleweight division. After extending his perfect record to 8-0 by mauling middleweight John Phillips and Rhys McKee at welterweight, Chimaev sits as the fourth most in form middleweight and the sixth most in form welterweight. Once he gets more UFC wins under his belt that score will only soar higher.
In completely contrasting form, Gerald Meerschaert is hovering near the bottom of the middleweight form table after losing five of his last 10. He has really struggled for some consistency with great wins over the likes of Trevin Giles and Deron Winn but failing short to Eryk Anders and Ian Heinisch who finished him in his last fight.
PREDICTION
The disrespect of booking Demian Maia already for Chimaev’s next fight will only motivate Meerschaert. He is a huge step-up from John Phillips and Rhys McKee in terms of experience, grappling and he is also a genuine middleweight with 23 submission wins in the book.
However, the hype is real for Chimaev at middleweight or welterweight and although this match-up is a lot closer on paper to his previous opponents, we can only expect him to be an even better fighter come Saturday. Meerschaert is expected to put up a better fight and his submission threat will be there but his tendency to submit top position and end up on his back could not be better suited to the Swede.
Winner: Chimaev via Decision
Value Bet: Meerschaert via Submission
Johnny Walker vs Ryan Spann
After becoming the fifth most in-form light heavyweight in the UFC after a nine-fight win streak and three knockouts in his first three UFC fights, Johnny Walker has sunk after getting humbled by Corey Anderson in the shock knockout and then getting outclassed by Nikita Krylov in a decision. However, responding with a finish will see him rise up again but he has his hands full up against a killer who has all the form Walker had last year.
Ryan Spann is riding an impressive eight-fight win streak including four UFC wins and six finishes. After knocking out Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, submitting Devin Clark and then edging past Sam Alvey in a split decision, another win and particularly a finish over Walker will see him become one of the hottest tickets in the division.
PREDICTION
Walker has been busy at the Straight Blast Gym in Ireland repairing his train that was unceremoniously derailed by Anderson and Krylov and he vows to get back in the win column with a vintage knockout.
However, this could so easily be another huge setback as Spann has more quietly been building his own hype with his finishing ability. Spann will be more comfortable on the ground but will back himself on the feet which could be his undoing.
SGB is yet another camp for Walker but John Kavanagh will have a well thought out game plan. If he can combine strategy with his confident and dynamic movement, he should have too much speed and power for Spann, keeping the distance and not falling into any traps.
Winner: Walker via KO/TKO
Mackenzie Dern vs Randa Markos
Mackenzie Dern is back in the top 10 most in-form strawweights after bouncing back from the first loss of her career. Her dominant loss to Amanda Ribas saw drop to #18 but after a typical performance and ruthless submission over Hannah Cifers she is back up towards the top. However, she will do well to continue the march as apart from Ribas, Randa Markos is her toughest opponent to date.
Markos has always had a low form score as she has not managed to string two wins together ever in the UFC. But, when you start your UFC career after your fifth professional fight you are never going to have a flattering record and she has done well to remain relevant in the stacked division since it was introduced. She has also fallen victim to Ribas but her pattern of responding to losses with wins may give her some confidence going into this one.
PREDICTION
Physically, both ladies match up very similarly at 5’4” and a 63-inch reach but the biggest difference is their experience. Dern only has nine MMA fights whereas Markos has spent most her career slugging it out with the best in the UFC.
Markos also has more tools, but Dern’s sharpest tool is obviously her jiu-jitsu as arguably the best female jiu-jitsu practitioner in the UFC. So, this will all come down to Markos’ takedown defence which is only 58%.
Markos will make Dern work hard for the takedown and the longer the fight stays on the feet, the more points she will rack up for the judges. However, she does not quite have the wrestling of Amanda Ribas who was able to control Dern in top position so if they go to the floor, Markos is in serious trouble only needing one opening to wrap up a submission.
Winner: Dern via Submission
Value Bet: Markos via Decision
Kevin Holland vs Darren Stewart
After his submission loss to Brendan Allen last year, Kevin Holland has surged back up the form table after two knockouts in 2020 dispatching Anthony Hernandez and Joaquin Buckley. He is remaining as active as ever keeping up his form and a win over Darren Stewart will see him crack the top 10.
Stewart jumped 17 places up the middleweight table with his submission win over Maki Pitolo. He has always struggled for consistency in the UFC and has gone 5-5 in his last 10 but barring that decision loss to Bartosz Fabiniski during peak chaos of the pandemic which saw them fight for Cage Warriors, Stewart has looked sharper in recent fights with more clarity in his training and approach.
PREDICTION
This is an exciting match-up as both men are thrilling to watch. Kevin Holland will be the favourite and will boast a significant seven-inch reach and three-inch height advantage over Darren Stewart.
Stewart is a phenomenal striker, but he has to be patient as Holland uses his range very well. Although Stewart showed off his submission skills in his last fight, he will not want to get tangled up with Holland and he will be most effective mid-range.
Stewart has proven time and time again that you can never count him out and he can finish a fight in various ways but Holland’s weapons at close and long range, particularly his jab swing this in his favour.
Winner: Holland via Decision
Value Bet: Stewart via Decision
JORDAN ESPINOSA vs DAVID DVORAK
Jordan Espinosa is coming off a unanimous decision putting on a clinic against Mark De La Rosa. He displayed his kickboxing and threw in a couple takedowns to get the win and the performance was much needed after suffering two submission losses on the bounce against Matt Schnell and Alex Perez snapping his five-fight win streak.
David Dvorak only has one UFC fight which was a unanimous decision win over Bruno Silva, but that win is the topping on a juicy 14-fight win streak finishing everyone bar Silva. He has fought for various promotions but has picked his opponents off with eight knockouts and seven submissions in his 18 wins.
PREDICTION
There is a lot of hype around the Czechoslovakian and this is his toughest test to date. They match up very similarly physically and are both exceptional on the feet. Espinosa has more high-level experience, but Dvorak looks the real deal and will be confident wherever the fight goes.
He has more power on the feet and also has his grappling to call upon which will be his easiest route to victory. The only hole in Espinosa’s game is his jiu-jitsu and Dvorak has the choice to exploit that.
Winner: Dvorak via Submission
MAYRA BUENO SILVA vs MARA ROMERO BORELLA
Mayra Bueno Silva is coming off the first loss of her career to go 5-1 losing a unanimous decision to Maryna Moroz. She got the UFC contract after submitting Mayana Souza dos Santos on Dana White’s Contender series and was handed a super tough debut in the shape of Gillian Robertson. However, she bagged the win giving Robertson a taste of her own medicine with a first round armbar.
Mara Romero Borella steps out for her third outing of 2020 but desperately needs a win after losing four of her last five fights. She squeaked past Talia Santos with a split decision back in February last year which was a huge win but she is now on a three-fight skid losing to Lauren Murphy (TKO), Montana De La Rosa (decision) and Cortney Casey (submission).
PREDICTION
Both ladies are aggressive, tough and well-rounded. If the fight stays on the feet we should have a war and a display of Silva’s Muay Thai and Borella’s kickboxing. However, we are also likely to see a mixture of grappling and clinch work. Borella is a black belt in judo and she will need these skills to prevent being on her back where Silva’s slick jiu-jitsu can wrap a submission in an instant.
This is a fascinating fight on paper and is fully expected to live up to it on the night. We have not seen much of Silva’s grappling so far in the UFC, but it could turn out to be the difference.
Winner: Silva via Submission
JESSICA-ROSE CLARK vs SARAH ALPAR
Unfortunately, we have only seen Jessica-Rose Clark once since 2018 and that was a unanimous decision loss to Pannie Kianzad in November 2019. She is now on a two-fight skid with the previous loss being another unanimous decision loss to Jessica Eye but the last time she lost two in a row she responded with three wins and they include a split decision over Bec Rawlings and a unanimous decision over Paige VanZant.
Sarah Alpar makes her long-awaited UFC debut and it comes after her submission over Shanna Young on Dana White’s Contender Series. That win made it three in a row – firstly a TKO over Pamela Boveda Aguiree and then a split decision over Joselyne Edwards Laboriel.
PREDICTION
Clark is the favourite and rightly so especially if she is healthy and injury-free. Alpar is coming off that impressive win but the UFC will be a huge step-up for her. She is a tricky southpaw with a strong left hand but on paper, Clark should has enough tools to earn the decision.
Winner: Clark via Decision
DARRICK MINNER vs TJ LARAMIE
Darrick Minner walks out for his 36th fight and is hoping for his first UFC win. The grinder made his UFC debut last year after submitting Terrance McKinney and Charlie DuBray but took on Grant Dawson on short notice getting submitted which is a tough fight for anyone let alone for a debut.
It is TJ Laramie’s turn for his UFC debut after knocking out Daniel Swain on Dana White’s Contender Series back in August. That marked his fourth win in a row after getting past James Dunn, Paris Stanford and Andrew Cruz for the Prospect Fighting Championships.
PREDICTION
Laramie needs to keep the fight on the feet as Minner will try and get his hands on him as soon as possible and use his wrestling to subdue Laramie and look for a submission.
Laramie has a clear advantage in the striking department but has to watch out for Minner’s looping punches before he shoots in for the takedown. Laramie is very confident on the ground, but he has to respect Minner’s skills and his wrestling should be good enough to conduct where the majority of the fight goes.
Winner: Laramie via KO/TKO
JOURNEY NEWSON vs RANDY COSTA
Journey Newson is still trying to get his UFC career up and running after making his debut back in June last year. After a six-fight win streak earned the contract, he met Ricardo Ramos but lost a unanimous decision. He then met Domingo Pilarte in February and sparked him in under a minute, but the fight was later overturned due to a failed drugs test.
Randy Costa is also coming off his first UFC win with a knockout but without the authorities taking it away. He arrived to the UFC with a fledgling 4-0 record but finished all his fights via knockout for Cage Titans impressing the UFC brass. He went on to get submitted on his debut against Brandon Davis but bounced back with that TKO over Boston Salmon just over a year ago.
PREDICTION
This is a banger between two heavy handed bantamweights. Costa is extremely dangerous from distance throwing hooks, uppercuts and his left high kick right at the end of his range and with a six-inch reach advantage over Newson he will back himself for another knockout.
However, as dangerous as Costa is, he is there to be hit. His technique is reckless, and Newson will be keeping an eye on his chin that is always left exposed when he throws bombs.
A knockout is very likely here and Newson can easily find the chin of Costa but only if he can step into range without being hit which will be a tall order.