UFC Vegas 10 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 10? Saturday 12th September, 2020 - 23:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 10? APEX Facility, Las Vegas, Nevada (US)
What channel is UFC Vegas 10? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 10? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
MICHELLE WATERSON VS ANGELA HILL
Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill jump up to the main event spot after Glover Teixeira pulled out of his fight with Thiago Santos due to a positive COVID-19 test.
Waterson is coming off two losses for the second time in her career. In October last year she was outclassed by Joanna Jedrzejczyk in a number one contender fight and then she came up against the decision queen Carla Esparza who squeaked out another split decision.
Hill is also coming off a split decision, but few would have raised an eyebrow if she got the nod over Claudia Gadelha. This snapped a three-fight win streak which is long in the strawweight division and she looked phenomenal. She finished Ariane Carnelossi and Hannah Cifers and then earned a unanimous decision over Loma Lookboonmee displaying all her class on the feet.
PREDICTION
We have seen Hill’s whole MMA career mature in the UFC and we are now seeing the best version of her but a win over Waterson will be the trophy of how far she has come. Hill has always been a beast in Muay Thai and she will hope this fight stays on the feet.
Waterson is also a beast on the feet and although she does not have the pop in shots like Hill does, technically she is sound and has the movement to frustrate Hill. However, the difference could come in her grappling.
A stand-up battle would be thrilling to watch but if the fight goes to the ground, Waterson will have a significant edge and will try and exploit the only hole in Hill’s game. If Hill’s takedown defence is on point, she can bag the points in a striking battle but Waterson has a two pronged attack and the experience to utilize it.
Winner: Waterson via Decision
Value Bet: Waterson via Submission
KHAMA WORTHY VS OTTMAN AZAITAR
Khama Worthy burst on to the UFC scene last year arriving to the octagon at 14-6 and he extended his winning streak to seven with two brilliant finishes. He met Devonte Smith for his debut and knocked him out in the first round with a brilliant counter hook and then he went on to submit the talented Luis Pena back in June.
He meets Ottman Azaitar who has bulldozed through all 12 of his opponents. He is unbeaten with a staggering nine knockouts and two submissions and made his UFC debut a year ago against Teemu Packalen cracking him stiff in the first round.
PREDICTION
Azaitar is a dangerous southpaw with savage power in his hands and Worthy is a beast of an athlete who also has knockout power.
Azaitar is expected to walk Worthy down with his chin tucked and ready to fire. Worthy has the range with three inches in height and arm reach and he will have to utilise that with his dynamism.
If he can circle Azaitar while eating up his lead leg with leg kicks, Worthy can slow him down and force him into rushing in where he can counter. Worthy gets the nod but considering their power, anything can happen.
Winner: Worthy via Decision
Value Bet: Azaitar via KO/TKO
ROXANNE MODAFFERI VS ANDREA LEE
‘The Happy Warrior’ Roxanne Modafferi walks out for her 42nd MMA fight and like many female flyweights, she has struggled to get a winning streak going. She has continued to win one and lose one since 2017 but it may be a good omen as she lost her last fight. This was a decision to Lauren Murphy which came off her huge upset win over Maycee Barber.
After riding a seven-fight win streak, Andre Lee is in the unfamiliar territory of losing two on the bounce. After earning brilliant unanimous decisions over, Veronica Macedo, Ashlee Evans-Smith and Montana De La Rosa, she fell to close split decisions to Joanne Calderwood with Murphy striking again with another split decision.
PREDICTION
We know what to expect from Modaferri and that is to bank on her wrestling, drag Lee to the mat and maintain top control while looking for a submission.
Lee is on a different level when it comes to striking decorated in kickboxing, Muay Thai and boxing but she is also well-rounded. She is a brown belt in judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu and already boasts a win over a talented wrestler in De La Rosa.
However, she will want to avoid any grappling as she knows Modaferri does not pose much threat on the feet. The worrying sign is that Lee only has a 61% takedown defence and has been taken down in every UFC fight but we are backing her to stay on the feet long enough to land more and inflict more damage to sway the judges.
Winner: Lee via Decision
Value Bet: Modafferi via Decision
ED HERMAN VS MIKE RODRIGUEZ
Veteran Ed Herman has found a rare bit of form coming off two wins in response to losing three on the bounce. After a flat split decision loss to Gian Villante, Herman cracked Pat Cummins with a knee and finished him off in the first round and is now coming off a hard-fought decision over Khadis Ibragimov. ‘Short Fuse’ now hopes to string three wins together for the first time since 2012.
Fresh off his brilliant knockout of Marcin Prachnio three weeks ago, Mike Rodriguez heads back to the APEX hunting his biggest name. He showed great character bouncing back from his knockout loss to Da Un Jung which was his second knockout loss in the UFC. The pressure was on him but now if he gets past Herman his career will be on a completely different trajectory.
PREDICTION
This will be a violent stand-up battle with both men happy to eat one to throw one. Herman has the experience and tools to grind out a decision or even a knockout but his lack of head movement and amount of shots he eats will play into Rodriguez’ hands.
Rodriguez will have a five-inch reach advantage and will open up with leg kicks waiting for Herman to press forward. We saw Herman switch to southpaw in his last fight which was effective so Rodriguez will have to prepare for that.
Herman’s experience or Rodriguez knockout power will be the deciding factors here but Rodriguez gets the nod.
Winner: Rodriguez via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Herman via KO/Decision
BILLY QUARANTILLO VS KYLE NELSON
Billy Quarantillo is flying right now on a seven-fight winning streak only losing once in his last 13 fights. He has also already banked a win in the APEX which was a war and unanimous decision over Spike Carlyle at UFC on ESPN 9 making it UFC win number two, the first, a submission over Jacob Kilburn.
Kyle Nelson makes his first appearance of 2020 and is coming off the first win of his UFC career. He had a super tough debut in the form of Carlos Diego Ferreira getting knocked out and then got submitted by Matt Sayles but got the win in the bag over Polo Reyes and it was a brilliant TKO.
PREDICTION
Quarantillo has proven he can knock people out and submit people efficiently but has also proved he can come through adversity and win wars. Nelson is also a finisher with a very strong clinch and has ferocious knees and elbows.
Quarantillo is the favourite but this is going to be a very tough fight for him, and he has to avoid those knees and make the fight scrappy to come out on top.
Winner: Quarantillo via Decision
Value Bet: Nelson via KO/TKO
MATT SCHNELL VS TYSON NAM
Matt Schnell heads to the APEX after getting his four-fight win streak snapped by Alexandre Pantoja. After decisions over Marco Beltran and Naoki Inoue, Schnell wrapped Louis Smolka and Jordan Espinosa with brilliant triangle chokes.
Tyson Nam finally got his UFC career off the ground and it was in spectacular fashion. He took on Zarrukh Adashev back in June and starched him in 32 seconds. This was in response to losing his first two UFC fights, but he was handed a very tough start – Sergio Pettis for his debut and then Kai Kara-France.
PREDICTION
Nam has only had three UFC fights, but he is very experienced. Interestingly, most of Schnell’s wins have come via submission but Nam has never been submitted. Schnell is still better off hunting the submission as Nam has the edge on the feet.
If Nam can keep the distance and avoid the takedown, he will rack up the strikes and damage particularly with leg kicks. Nam has never been taken down in the UFC but Schnell needs just one opportunity to take the back.
Winner: Nam via KO/TKO
Value bet: Schnell via Submission
SIJARA EUBANKS VS JULIA AVILA
Third time lucky for Sijara Eubanks after Macy Chiasson pulled out of their fight scheduled for UFC Vegas 9 and then her replacement, Karol Rosa also pulling out last minute due to weight cut complications, she now has Julia Avila lined up. No easy match-ups for her but all Eubanks wants is a fight and to build some momentum after outpointing Sarah Moras back in May.
Avila is a beast and has stormed into the UFC. After putting a beating on Alexa Conners she was awarded with a UFC debut against Pannie Kianzad and clinched a unanimous decision. She is now coming off a vintage performance and the fourth knockout win of her career finishing Gina Mazany in just 22 seconds.
PREDICTION
Eubanks has been the underdog in all three matchups but that may be more of a reflection on her record than her skills. She is a powerful boxer and wrestler but also has some of the most underrated jiu-jitsu in the division.
Avila is likely to blitz Eubanks and try and get her out early and she has the power to do so. However, if Eubanks can weather the storm, she can grow into the fight.
Eubanks has a more comfortable weight cut at 135 lbs but who knows how her body has reacted after cutting for the Rosa fight. Avila is the bigger fighter and if Eubanks is off colour in any way, Avila will be all over her like a savage but as the heavy underdog, all the money is on Eubanks.
Winner: Avila via Decision
Value Bet: Eubanks via Decision
MATT FREVOLA ROOSEVELT ROBERTS
Matt ‘The Steamrolla’ Frevola is back in action and steps out of the fist time in 2020. He also has his mojo back after getting clipped by Polo Reyes suffering his first loss and knockout back in January 2019. He then fought to a draw with Lando Vannata but got back to winning ways with a unanimous decision over Jalin Turner and a closer split decision over Luis Pena.
Roosevelt ‘The Predator’ Roberts is keeping as active as ever and makes his third outing at the APEX. He received a wrestling lesson from Vinc Pichel to suffer his first loss in June last year, responded with great wins over Alexander Yakovlev and Brok Weaker and fought Jim Miller full of confidence but got submitted in the first round – another lesson that will serve him well.
PREDICTION
Roberts has the range on Frevola with a two-inch reach and five-inch height advantage so the key for Frevola is to stick to his strengths which is his wrestling just like Pichel did. Frevola is also coming off that win over Pena who poses a very similar threat to Roberts in terms of stature and skill set so a lot of people are backing him to grind out another decision.
Roberts can pose a threat off his back using his length, but he has to keep the fight on the feet. Roberts is the better striker and he has to look for a knockout as Frevola will put on a relentless pace for three rounds.
Winner: Frevola via Decision
Value bet: Roberts via KO/TKO
BOBBY GREEN VS ALAN PATRICK
Bobby Green has his swagger back after two brilliant unanimous decision wins over Clay Guida and Lando Vannata. This came after two unanimous decision losses to Drakkar Klose and Francisco Trinaldo and now he believe he has a good few more wins in him before he hangs up the gloves.
Alan Patrick finally makes his walk back to the cage. We have not seen the jiu-jitsu ace since October 2018 where he was eventually brutalized by Scott Holtzman elbows. So, the Brazilian is without a win since February 2018 where he clinched the last of three unanimous decisions in a row against Damien Brown but his fights prior were back in 2016.
PREDICTION
We have not seen Patrick for a hot minute so we do not know how he will turn up but Green looked great in his two fights this year particularly on the feet where his boxing looked as crisp as ever.
Patrick will not be afraid to bang but his wild looping shots will make him easy pickings for Green who has the technique to counter at will without being hit.
The clear route to victory is on the ground for Patrick who has very strong wrestling and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He needs to avoid Green’s boxing and keep him on the ground. Green has not been submitted since February 2013 (Jacob Volkmann) so it would be a feather in the cap for Patrick who’s best bet is to grind out a decision but the huge difference in momentum swings this in Green’s favour.
Winner: Green via Decision
Value Bet: Patrick via Decision
ALEXANDER ROMANOV VS ROQUE MARTINEZ
A positive COVID-19 test scuppered Alexander Romanov’s debut against Marcos Rogerio de Lima last week but thankfully he has been rescheduled for UFC Vegas 10. The Moldovan has been slaying in the local Eagles Fighting Championship boasting a perfect record of 11-0 finishing all his fights (five knockouts and six submissions).
The man stepping up also making his debut is Roque Martinez. He is 16-6-2 and has recently been slugging it out for Deep and Rizin. He fought Mirko Cro Cop back in September 2018 inevitably getting knocked out by the legend and has gone 3-1 since coming off knockouts over Seigo Mizuguchi (Deep) and Hideki Sekine (Rizin).
PREDICTION
It’s a short notice match-up but Romanov but he will approach it the same way. Martinez has fierce power in his hands and Romanov will look to get him to the floor to avoid the threat and unleash his own.
He is expected to get the take down to pour on his ferocious ground-and-pound inflicting enough damage to set up a knockout or submission.
Winner: Romanov via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Romanov via Submission
BRYAN BARBERENA VS ANTHONY IVY
Bryan Barberena is coming off two losses and the first two knockouts of his career. His granite chin has finally given way, mainly thanks to Vicente Luque who put on a three-round beating in a back and forth war in February last year. He then suffered the same fate against Randy Brown back in June last year and is now raring to go after nine months out.
Anthony Ivy is also coming off a knockout loss which unfortunately for him was his UFC debut. He came up against fellow debutant, Christian Aguilera who stunned Ivy early and mercilessly finished him off breaking his five-fight winning streak.
PREDICTION
On paper, this is a ‘fight of the night’ contender. They are both aggressive on the feet and always hunt the finish. Ivy has in fact finished all eight of his wins (five knockouts and 3 submissions) and Barberena’s last two wins have come via knockout, so we know what to expect.
Barberena is seasoned in wars and although he lost to the likes of Colby Covington, Leon Edwards and Vicente Luque, his experience will be crucial and is why he is the favourite.
However, despite his debut loss, Ivy has so much potential and this is a good match-up for him. Barberena has eaten five significant strikes a minute on average in his 10 UFC fights and if he eats that many against Ivy he will be in trouble, on the feet and on the ground.
Winner: Ivy via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Ivy via KO/Submission
SABINA MAZO VS JUSTINE KISH
It is great to see Sabrina Mazo back as the youngster has a lot of potential to fill. She lost her debut against Maryna Moroz in March last year which was the first loss of her career but she bounced back from the set back really well with unanimous decisions over Shana Dobson and JJ Aldrich proving she could be a problem in the flyweight division with time.
It is also great to see Justine Kish back as we have only seen her compete once since January 2018. That was a unanimous decision win over Lucie Pudilova in January. She showed great character shaking off the rust and bouncing back from the first two losses of her career which was a unanimous decision to Felice Herrig in 2017 and a split decision to Ji Yeon Kim in 2018.
PREDICTION
This is a very interesting match-up on paper and it should be a high-volume battle on the feet. Mazo is the bigger fighter and will have a six-inch reach advantage but Kish has all the experience on the feet with a strong Muay Thai and kickboxing background.
Considering their power, we are unlikely to see a knockout so it will be a case of who can land more strikes and damage and Kish has the technique, speed and cardio to do so but has to watch out for the clinch and dangerous kicks of Mazo.