UFC Vegas 9 - Full Card Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 9? Saturday 5th August, 2020 - 23:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 9? APEX Facility, Las Vegas, Nevada (US)
What channel is UFC Vegas 9? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 9? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ALISTAIR OVEREEM VS AUGUSTO SAKAI
The legend Alistair Overeem walks out for his 65th professional MMA fight and his 19th UFC fight. Although his chin keeps taking more damage, no heavyweight in the UFC will have as much longevity as him and he keeps churning out the wins. After outclassing Jairzinho Rozenstruik for five rounds, he was finally caught with a huge bomb with seconds to go suffering his 24th knockout loss. However, he proved he still has it after knocking out the dangerous Walt Harris in his last fight.
Augusto Sakai has quietly risen up the shallow heavyweight ranks after winning all four of his UFC fights. He knocked out Chase Sherman on his debut, scraped past Andei Arlovski with a split decision, smoked Marcin Tybura in the first round and is now coming off another split decision over Blagoy Ivanov.
PREDICTION
The diverse talents of Sakai’s opponents prove he has the skill set to make it to the top of the division and a win over Overeem will catapult him into the queue of title contenders.
Sakai strengths lie in his Muay Thai, but he will not bring anything to the table that Overeem has not seen before. That said, his chin only needs one clean strike for the fight to be over.
Overeem is one of the most decorated heavyweights in MMA but one of his most impressive attributes is his ability to continually adapt and evolve. As we saw in the Rozenstruik fight, he is meticulous and calculated and will have to be again against Sakai.
Sakai will try and walk him down so we can expect Overeem to call upon his improved wrestling and powerful clinch which will set up his strikes and patented knees. Overeem has the tools and fight IQ to win comfortably but only if he can defend that chin.
Winner: Overeem via Decision
OVINCE SAINT PREUX VS ALONZO MENIFIELD
Thankfully, Ovince Saint Preux (OSP) is healthy after testing positive for COVID-19 two weeks ago which forced him and Alonzo Menifield off the UFC Vegas 7 card.
OSP returns after his venture up at heavyweight back in May. He ended up losing a split decision to Ben Rothwell, but the veteran looked comfortable against the rotund slugger. That loss was his fourth in six fights and now he would love nothing more than to get back to build on his win against Michal Oleksiejczuk in September with another Von Flue or more like a ‘Saint Preux’ choke.
Menifield got derailed in his last fight which was against Devin Clark back in June. The tank was boasting a perfect record finishing all of his fights, but Clark subdued Menifield sealing a decision and handing Menifield his first loss.
PREDICTION
If OSP plays this safe, he can easily stifle the knockout threat by tying Menifield up in the clinch and even wearing him down into a submission. If he decides to stand and trade, he has the ability to find a knockout, but you have to back Menifield’s explosiveness if the fight stays on the feet for any length of time. A Menifield knockout or a late OSP submission is your best bet.
Winner: OSP via Submission
MICHEL PEREIRA VS ZELIM ADAMAEV
The lunatic is back in action and all the fans are hoping for fireworks. Especially as after Michel Pereira’s showstopping knockout of Danny Roberts on his debut, the show has fallen flat. He gassed himself out and frankly embarrassed himself against Tristan Connelly who stepped up a weight class on short notice to snatch the decision. He then fought fellow mad man Diego Sanchez but after dominating on the feet he landed a knee while Sanchez was grounded throwing away the win losing via disqualification.
Zelim Imadaev arrives without a UFC win coming off two losses which are the only blemishes on his record. He was edged out by Max Griffin in a grudge match and then took on Danny Roberts and looked good until the Englishman cleaned his clock in the second round.
PREDICTION
Any Pereira fight is exciting and this should be no different with Imadaev who will oblige in throwing down. Any theatrics from Pereira will work against him and he knows now that breakdancing does not win you fights.
That said, he needs to keep that energy to enforce his will on Imadaev and control the fight. If the Brazilian is sloppy, Imadaev will punish him as he has ferocious power in his hands. If Pereira can funnel his emotions and energy into calculated combinations and takedowns, the fight is his but if he takes his eye off the ball for a second, the Russian will send him to sleep.
Winner: Pereira via KO/TKO
Brian Kelleher vs Kevin Natividad
Brian Kelleher is coming off a Cody Stamann shaped speed bump after racing into 2020. He looked exceptional in submitting Ode Osbourne at the start of the year and starched Hunter Azure up at featherweight in May but Stamann stifled Kelleher’s momentum clinching a unanimous decision.
Unfortunately, Ricky Simon pulled out after his cornerman tested positive for COVID-19 as that would have been a great fight. His loss is Kevin Natividad’s gain as he makes his UFC debut. A deserved debut as he heads to the APEX on a five-fight winning streak and making a name for himself for the Legacy Fighting Alliance and coming off a big knockout over Kyle Estrada.
PREDICTION
Estrada will obviously be the underdog, but he deserves his place in the UFC and will give Kelleher a tough fight. Estrada is a strong, stocky fighter and is very dangerous in the pocket. However, Kelleher is called ‘Boom Boom’ for a reason and is also lethal at close range.
All of the pressure is on him as Estrada has nothing to lose but we expect him to earn a decision at least but it will not be an easy outing.
Winner: Kelleher via KO/TKO
THIAGO MOISES VS JALIN TURNER
Thiago Moises is 13-4 and 2-2 in the UFC but he is still only 25 years old. He was handed a nightmare debut against stud veteran Beneil Dariush and lost a unanimous decision but responded with a decision of his own against Kurt Holobaugh. He went on to lose another decision in his next fight to Damir Ismagulov and then met Michael Johnson. After getting pieced up on the feet for the first round, he entered the second with one thing on his mind and that was getting the submission and succeeded with an ankle lock.
Jalin Turner is also 2-2 in the UFC and only 25 years old. He was also fed to to wolves on his UFC debut, stepping up to welterweight to get slept by Vicente Luque. He stepped back down to lightweight and back into his groove with a knockout over Callan Potter but was outpointed by Matt Frevola in his next fight. He is now coming off his ninth win and eighth knockout of his career finishing Joshua Culibao in New Zealand back in February.
PREDICTION
This will be a contest between Turner’s striking and Moises’ jiu-jitsu. Turner has a huge frame for lightweight and will boast a seven-inch reach and six-inch height advantage, but that reach will count for nothing on the mat.
Moises is dangerous striker, but he has to look at his fight with Johnson and know he has to stick to his strengths. Johnson outclassed him and Turner will do the same with the extra range and power so Moises will surely try and get the fight to the ground as soon as possible.
Moises’ jiu-jitsu is so good he only needs one takedown so Turner may have to go for broke early. A Turner knockout or Moises submission is most likely, and it will depend on Turner’s takedown defence.
Winner: Moises via Submission
ANDRE MUNIZ VS BARTOSZ FABINSKI
Andre Muniz heads to the APEX riding a five-fight winning streak coming off a successful UFC debut against Antonio Arroyo. Muniz earnt the call-up after two wins on Dana White’s Contender Series, firstly a unanimous decision over Bruno Assis in 2018 and then a submission over Taylor Johnson a year later.
Bartosz is back in the win column after some hectic preparations. He had not fought since 2018 when he got submitted by Michel Prazeres snapping a seven-fight win streak and then was scheduled to return against Shavkat Rakhmonov at UFC London in March but due to the chaos with the pandemic, he eventually fought Darrent Stewart under the Cage Warriors banner. In the chaos, he picked up a dominant win and decision.
PREDICTION
Both men are supreme grapplers with Fabinski hailing from a judo background and Muniz a jiu-jitsu background. However, if they do decide to tangle on the mat, Fabinski is likely to control Muniz in top position with his power.
Their skills are likely to cancel each other out on the ground forcing a slow-paced stand-up battle. Do not expect any highlight reel knockouts here but more a gritty contest going to the bell.
Winner: Fabinski via Decision
VIVIANE ARAUJO VS MONTANA DE LA ROSA
Viviane Araujo steps in for Maryna Moroz as travel restrictions due to COVID-19 have prevented her from flying over to Vegas. Araujo is hoping to get back in the win column after Jessica Eye snapped her five-fight winning streak with a unanimous decision.
Montana De La Rosa bounced back in dominant fashion after losing her first UFC fight which was a decision to Andrea Lee. She took on Mara Romero Borella and handled the Italian with ease, wrestling her way to a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
It will be interesting to see how Araujo deals with an out and out grappler. She is electric on the feet and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu so is confident everywhere and although De La Rosa is more one dimensional, her strengths are lethal.
De La Rosa usually relies on her wrestling to keep her opponents down and look for a submission but Araujo is a different level in terms of submissions skills but De La Rosa may still and control the fight with her wrestling.
Araujo has more skills, more speed and power on the feet and as long as she can avoid the takedown, she should display her class out landing De La Rosa all the way to a decision.
Winner: Araujo via Decision
ALEXANDER ROMANOV VS MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA
Marcos de Lima is coming off a vintage performance and the 12th knockout of his career when he put Ben Sosoli away in the first round. This win kept up his win/loss pattern in the UFC struggling to string two wins together and he will be desperate to avoid another loss let alone a submission.
Alexander Romanov is the man lined up for de Lima coming to the UFC boasting a perfect record of 11-0 finishing all his fights (five knockouts and six submissions). The Moldovan has been slaying in the local Eagles Fighting Championship, but the UFC and de Lima is a big step-up in competition.
PREDICTION
De Lima is a very good match-up for Romanov on his UFC debut. The Brazilian is very inconsistent and will have a predictable game plan. He is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but he has been finished on the ground four times in his last eight fights.
Romanov is no Fabricio Werdum, but he is very effective in getting his opponents to the ground and unleashing ferocious ground-and-pound which sets up his knockouts or submissions.
If Romanov can get de Lima to the ground, we can expect another submission or knockout, but he cannot stay on the feet for too long against the seasoned veteran.
Winner: Romanov via KO/TKO
COLE SMITH VS HUNTER AZURE
Cole Smith heads to the APEX after losing his unbeaten record in his last fight. He was a healthy 7-0 after winning his UFC debut with a unanimous decision over Mitch Gagnon. However, the judges leaned towards Miles Johns a year ago awarding him with the split decision.
Hunter Azure is also coming off the first loss of his career. He stepped up to featherweight with Brian Kelleher who snapped his streak and his head back in the second round. It was a brutal knockout but Azure hopes to pick up where he left off in earning a brilliant unanimous decision in his fight prior with Brad Katona.
PREDICTION
Interestingly, Smith has three inches of height on Azure but gives up two inches in reach. Smith has dangerous Muay Thai and also has also added a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu to the locker and Azure has a strong wrestling base.
Azure is the favourite, but this is a very close fight on paper as both men are very well-rounded. If Azure can pace himself better than he did in the Kelleher fight, he has enough tools to get the win with his wrestling making the difference.