UFC on ESPN 12 - UFC Vegas 4 Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC on ESPN 12? Saturday 27th June, 2020 - 23:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC on ESPN 12? UFC APEX Facility, Las Vegas, Nevada
What channel is UFC on ESPN 12? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC on ESPN 12? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ which can you sign up to here!
Dustin Poirier vs Dan Hooker
The lightweight division continues to churn out epic match-ups and the next blockbuster is Dustin Poirier vs Dan Hooker.
Poirier is coming off his title fight with Khabib Nurmagomedov where he lost via a submission in the third round. Despite that loss, he is still ranked as the 16th most in-form fighter in the stacked division due to coming out of a murderers row finishing Anthony Pettis, Eddie Alvarez, Justin Gaethje and outpointing Max Holloway handing the Hawaiian his first loss in 13 fights and clinching the interim title.
Hooker has got past two big names himself in Al Iaquinta and Paul Felder bouncing back from his brutalisation served up by Edson Barboza. Winning eight of his last 10 including five finishes and coming off two wins over top 10 ranked opponents, Hooker is riding high as the 11th most in form fighter in the division.
PREDICTION
This is going to be a barnburner. They have all of the tools, but this is likely to be a technical war on the feet where they are both battle-tested. Poirier has the scalps of some of the best strikers in the division including Holloway, but Hooker will boast an important height and reach advantage.
Poirier is one of the best Boxers in the division, but Hooker’s diverse striking arsenal will cause problems. When Poirier smells blood he tends to move forward head-first and that is where Hooker could be waiting with lethal counters in the form of knees and uppercuts.
Poirier’s experience will be crucial in timing when to be aggressive just as he did in the Alvarez, Gaethje and Holloway fights. Hooker will be dangerous for five rounds as long as he can keep a distance utilising his reach but Poirier will have a strategy and a game plan to combat that.
Do not expect an early one-punch KO but a late finish with accumulative strikes is likely and so is five full rounds of violence.
Winner: Poirier via Decision
Mike Perry vs Mickey Gall
Mike Perry and Mickey Gall provide a fascinating stylistic match-up supporting the main event between Dustin Poirier and Dan Hooker.
Perry has had a tough time in the octagon recently coming off two brutal losses. All six of his pro losses have come in his last 10 fights but he has taken on beast after beast. He bagged impressive decisions over Paul Felder and Alex Oliveira but comes off a decision loss where Vicente Luque literally rearranged his face and he finally receiving his first knockout courtesy of Geoff Neal in his last fight and that has seen him plummet right down the form table.
Gall has climbed back up the table after a solid unanimous decision win over Salim Touahri in his last fight. This was in response to the biggest setback of his young career when he was finished by Diego Sanchez. He is now confident of building some momentum but when you start your UFC career after your first pro fight, that record in never going to look impressive.
PREDICTION
Gall is confident in his striking but his bread and butter is his jiu-jitsu and he will be desperate to get Perry to the mat. Although we have not seen Perry’s ground skills, he is a purple belt in jiu-jitsu himself but he is going to try and keep the fight standing to unleash his destructive striking on Gall, hunting his chin.
With Perry’s mysterious injuries a few days ago and his corner now just consisting of his new girlfriend, an upset just feels like it is on the cards. That said, he is a savage and as long as he can avoid the takedown, ‘Platinum’ will have the power to overwhelm Gall on the feet and if everything goes his way, he should seal a vintage finish.
Winner: Perry via KO/TKO
Brendan Allen vs Kyle Daukaus
Jiu-jitsu ace Kyle Daukaus has stepped up to replace the injured Ian Heinisch as he takes on on Brendan Allen for his UFC debut.
Allen is eager to get more UFC fights in the bag so is grateful Daukaus has stepped up to the plate. Allen is on a superb six-fight winning streak earning a UFC contract by submitting Aaron Jeffery on Dana White’s Contender Series and his last two fight have firmly put his name on the middleweight radar by submitting Kevin Holland and knocking out Tom Breese in his last outing.
Daukaus is also a Contender Series alum and although he won by earning a decision over Michael Lombardo, he did not quite impress enough to earn the contract. However, the UFC has been keeping a close eye on him as he has stretched his unbeaten record adding his seventh and eighth submissions with two brilliant Brabo Chokes over Stephen Regman and Nolan Norwood for the CFFC banner.
PREDICTION
Daukaus is not proven at this level yet but he is clearly a severe threat on the ground and he will look for any opportunity to drag the fight there. That said, Allen had racked up eight submission wins himself and will not mind a tangle on the mat.
However, the difference will come in Allen’s striking. He has a very diverse attack with tremendous power in his hands, a dangerous clinch and wrestling to keep Daukaus guessing.
Daukaus should prove he is UFC calibre but expect Allen to prove he has top 10 pedigree.
Winner: Allen via KO/TKO
Gian Villante vs Maurice Greene
Gian Villante makes his heavyweight debut in the UFC and is welcomed by ‘The Croquet Boss’ Maurice Greene.
With Villante’s skillset; the power, striking, wrestling and training team, it feels his UFC career has been a disappointment. He is 7-8 in the UFC and before getting finished by Michal Oleksiejczuk with a beautiful body shot in his last fight, his six fights prior were all split decisions with mixed fortunes. Struggling to build any form sitting at the bottom of the light heavyweight form table, he is trying his hand up at heavyweight which is exactly what his career needs.
Villante has a huge test however, as Greene is a genuine heavyweight standing at 6’7”. He is also struggling for form after losing a decision to Sergei Pavlovich and then getting submitted by Alexey Oleynik in his last fight, but he does have decent wins over Michel Batista, Jeff Hughes and Junior Albini.
PREDICTION
It is going to be very interesting to see Villante at heavyweight. With no weight to cut he is going to be even more powerful and explosive and without a camp focusing on the cut, he can put all his energy in finding a strategy to win.
Villante eats a lot of shots and cannot afford to eat many from a 265-pounder. He has the speed to negate that significant reach advantage of Greene but if he does not tighten up his defence, it will be a painful night for the New Yorker.