UFC on ESPN 11 - UFC Vegas 3 Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC on ESPN 11? Sunday 21st May, 2020 - 00:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC on ESPN 11? UFC APEX Facility, Las Vegas, Nevada
What channel is UFC on ESPN 11? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC on ESPN 11? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ which can you sign up to here!
Curtis Blaydes vs Alexander Volkov
With no clear route to the heavyweight title, Curtis Blaydes settles for a fight with Alexander Volkov.
Blaydes is hunting that title shot but with Stipe Miocic and Daniel Cormier struggling to make a date and the man that has handed Blaydes his two losses – Francis Ngannou – waiting for the winner, he has little choice but to remain active. After the his second knockout loss to Ngannou back in November 2018, Blaydes has steamrolled Justin Willis (unanimous decision), Shamil Abdurakhimov (TKO) and is coming off his biggest win in knocking out one of the best strikers in the division in former champion Junior dos Santos.
Former Bellator champion Volkov is a dangerous assignment for anyone as he is a phenomenal striker standing at 6’7” with an underrated grappling game. After an impressive six-fight winning streak, he was on the cusp of making it seven when he was cruising to a decision over Derrick Lewis but a lapse in concentration led to Lewis finding his only path to victory and landing his monster right hand with only 11 seconds left of the fight. However, he responded with a decision win to the late replacement Greg Hardy in his last outing.
PREDICTION
Although Volkov was preparing for Dos Santos and dealt with Hardy, it was not an impressive performance whereas Blaydes has looked like a savage in recent fights. Dubbed as just a wrestler, he has clearly added dangerous striking to his game as not many fighters can put Dos Santos away on the feet.
This will only make his wrestling more dangerous against Volkov as the Russian will be more respectful of his striking which will create more opportunities for the takedown. Blaydes is expected to get the takedown with punches and level changes.
Volkov is more than capable of landing a knockout and dismantling Blaydes at the end of his jab and kicks. However, do not expect Blaydes to search for another knockout on the feet as he is fully expected to take Volkov down as soon as possible and unleash his ground-and-pound to set up a finish on the mat.
Winner: Blaydes via KO/TKO
Josh Emmett vs Shane Burgos
Two absolute weapons making a dent in the stacked featherweight division clash as Josh Emmett and Shane Burgos eye up the top five.
After quickly dispatching Ricardo Lamas, Emmett received a taste of his own medicine by getting mercilessly knocked out by Jeremey Stephens. But after patching his jaw back together, he has got back to his own ruthless ways in knocking out Michael Johnson and Mirsad Bektic.
Burgos is also looking more dangerous with each fight. He suffered his first defeat after Calvin Kattar knocked him out in the third round back in January 2018, but he has responded brilliantly with three wins. He submitted Kurt Holobaugh, earned a split decision over Cub Swanson and finished Makwan Amirkhani with a third round TKO back in November.
PREDICTION
This is expected to be a fast-paced scrap. Both men are well-rounded, but this will most likely take place on the feet with Emmett’s one-punch knockout power and Burgos’ cardio and output being the deciding factor.
Burgos has an ungodly engine on him which will be complimented by a significant height and reach advantage and, if he can avoid the power of Emmett, he can out-work and really turn it on in the third round to clinch the decision and even a late finish if he puts everything together.
Winner: Burgos via Decision
Raquel Pennington vs Marion Reneau
Two powerful bantamweights in the shape of Raquel Pennington and Marion Reneau support the main event at UFC on ESPN 11.
Pennington’s record is unflattering but that is what happens when you fight the majority of your career at the top of a UFC division. She has not quite looked the same after her hunting accident on an ATV although she has come up against Amanda Nunes and Germaine de Randamie and was outclassed. However, she squeaked out a decision against the up-and-coming Irene Aldana but suffered another loss in her last fight and rematch with Holly Holm.
The high school teacher has been in the UFC since 2015 and has a UFC record of 5-4-1, never quite making it to the top level. However, a win over Pennington would be huge for the 42-year-old but she has not fought for over a year and comes off two unanimous decision losses to Cat Zingano and Yana Kunitskaya.
PREDICTION
These are two of the strongest women in the division but stylistically this will not get the fans off their seat which is just as well as there won’t be any. Pennington will look to smother Reneau in the clinch and try to set up a takedown. Reneau is extremely tough and an excellent Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner but Pennington is likely to out-wrestle here and grind out a decision.
Winner: Pennington via Decision
Belal Muhammad vs Lyman Good
A quality fight takes place in the welterweight division as Belal Muhammad takes on Lyman Good.
After three fights last year, Muhammad finally graces 2020. The first of those three fights was his first loss since 2016 but it was against the bogeyman of the division – Geoff Neal who everyone is avoiding right now. That snapped an impressive four-fight winning streak and he is now building another responding to that decision loss with a decision over Curtis Millender and a submission over Takashi Sato.
Good arrived to the UFC with high hopes and when he has won, he has looked phenomenal. He cleaned up Andrew White on his debut but missed out on a split decision against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. He then starched Ben Saunders but met the jiu-jistu beast, Demian Maia suffering his first submission loss. However, he responded in spectacular fashion again with a TKO of Chance Recountre.
PREDICTION
Muhammad has only been knocked out once in his career which was in 2015 to Vicente Luque but if Good can find his chin, he will be in serious trouble. Good is ferocious on the feet and is dangerous at all ranges, especially in the clinch.
Muhammad has all the skills in the locker, but he will surely try and close the distance quickly to nullify Good’s threats and smother him with his grappling. Training with Paul Felder will put him in good stead and if he can get him on his back, he should walk away with a decision but one mistake will lead to a 12th knockout of Good’s career.
Winner: Muhammed via decision
Jim Miller vs Roosevelt Roberts
Roosevelt Roberts is back in action after his heroics three weeks ago at UFC on ESPN 9 but now takes on the UFC veteran Jim Miller.
Miller walks out for his 35th UFC fight with Donald Cerrone the only man to make the walk more times. He has a UFC record of 20-13-0 (1) which is exceptional considering he has duked it out with a plethora of prodigies and legends in the most stacked division in the organisation’s history and he is still a threat, especially on the ground as he recently submitted Jason Gonzalez and Clay Guida but he is coming off a decision loss to Scott Holtzman.
The next up-and-comer in Miller’s path is Roberts and he has all the makings of being a top contender very soon. He only has one blip on the record so far which was a decision to Vinc Pichel who displayed all his experience in out-wrestling Roberts but he has bounced back with a decision over Alexander Yakovlev and a brilliant submission over Brok Weaver.
THE PREDICTION
Miller has all of the experience but what he doesn’t have is experience fighting in front of no crowd at the APEX facility, which Roberts has. Miller is rarely deterred but this difference will only make Roberts more confident which will be key to getting past the vet.
Roberts needs to get off to a quick start and be aggressive on the feet. He clearly has a huge submission threat but Miller is a master on the ground. If Roberts can utilise his speed and power on the feet, he can walk away with a decision at least.