UFC 251 - Fight Island Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC 251? Sunday 12th July, 2020 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 251? Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, UAE
What channel is UFC 251 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 251? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ which can you sign up to here!
Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal
Gilbert Burns rose out of the pile of welterweight contenders to fight the champion Kamaru Usman, but Covid-19 took the Brazilian down. Thankfully, Jorge Masvidal has stepped up to the plate on short notice to take the shot that should have been his in the first place.
With Burns, Masvidal, Leon Edwards and Colby Covington all in the mix for Usman at some point and being the first crop of fighters heading into the searing head on fight island, preparations have not been ideal but Usman is a real champion and has remained available throughout. He is also the 4th most in form fighter in the UFC winning his last 15 and finishing Covington on his first title defence in his last outing.
Masvidal probably has the highest stock in the UFC right now and his popularity is only soaring higher after taking this fight on short notice. He is coming off three super high-profile knockouts over Darren Till, Ben Askren and Nate Diaz and has a very high form score considering he has only won six of his last 10 fights.
PREDICTION
Masvidal is the man right now and defending your belt against him on short notice after moving training camps to train for Burns is as dangerous as it gets. Despite this, the odds are stacked against Masvidal as Usman is a terrible match-up for him. ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ is at the top of the food chain when is comes to endurance and wrestling and the heat will only make it harder to survive his pressure.
Masvidal has a clear striking advantage and considering how hard it will be to endure the championship rounds, he may have to take a similar approach to the Askren fight.
Usman’s biggest threat could be his own ego if he thinks he can stand up with Masvidal. The longer the fight stays on the feet, the more likely it is he will fall into one of Masvidal’s traps and get knocked out but Usman will try and close any distance and is likely to take him down as soon as possible in each round to grind out a decision.
Winner: Usman via Decision
Alexander Volkanovski vs Max Holloway
After three defences of his featherweight title, Max Holloway was finally dethroned with an immaculate performance by Alexander Volkanovski. They now head to fight island to settle who is the king of the division.
Volkanovski crept his way up the division and it was only when he finished Chad Mendes and outpointed the former king of the division, Jose Aldo that people really began to take notice of the Aussie. Then, sitting on a 17-fight winning streak, he deservedly earnt a title shot but was still the underdog against Holloway. However, he put on a clinic to become the champion and is now the #7 ranked most in form fighter in the UFC right now.
Becoming a champion is one feat but defending the belt consecutively is the hardest feat in the sport as Holloway found out. Every fight, you are coming up against someone in their prime with an archive of footage to study on you and after moving up to lightweight and losing to Dustin Poirier, moving back down and beating Frankie Edgar, Volkanovski was a hurdle too high for the Hawaiian. Despite losing two of his last three, Holloway is still the third most in form fighter in the division with eight wins over top 10 opponents.
PREDICTION
In the first fight, Volkanovski beat up Holloway with leg kicks timing his attacks and defensive slips to perfection. He was expected to start strong, but Holloway always comes into his own after the second round but to his surprise, so did Volkanovski and he did not step off the gas for a minute.
Volkanovski executed a perfect game plan and will bring the same tools to the table so Holloway is going to have to change things up to get the win and this will have start with his defence. If he is not able to defend/check the leg kicks he will be on the back foot again.
He is a champion and elite striker so we should expect him to be able to adapt and do enough to snap the crazy streak of Volkanovski but it is worrying to hear that he has not sparred and been unable to train properly for this fight.
Winner: Volkanovski via Decision
Petr Yan vs Jose Aldo
Coming off a loss on his bantamweight debut, ‘The King of Rio’ Jose Aldo meets Petr Yan for the vacant title left by Henry Cejudo.
Yan has earnt this shot compiling an impressive nine-fight winning streak which has seen him rise to #2 in the bantamweight form table. After earning impressive decisions over John Dodson and Jimmie Rivera, Yan met Urijah Faber at the perfect time. ‘The California Kid’ came out of retirement and pulled off a shock knockout over Ricky Simon which got everyone talking. Yan then saw an opportunity to add a legend to his record and displayed his superiority in putting the ageing veteran away in the third round.
It makes no sense for Aldo to get this title shot. After losing to Alexander Volkanovski, he moved down to bantamweight but lost another decision to Marlon Moraes which has seen his form score plummet. However, it was a controversial decision and Aldo looked brilliant against Moraes and with everything the Brazilian has accomplished in his career, he thoroughly deserves to be an exception and earn a title shot off the back of two losses.
PREDICTION
Yan does not have the resume of Aldo but on paper, he has the skills to be a legend in his own right. What he lacks in UFC experience, he makes up for in talent and stylistically this has the makings of an epic battle.
They are both monsters on the feet and two of the hardest hitters in the division with technique to match their power. The biggest difference is experience and miles on the clock. Aldo has spent the last decade only fighting top contenders, usually in five-round fights but Yan has the youth and has not taken much damage at all.
Their conditioning could be an interesting factor as Yan has only gone past the third round once in his career and will be be very hot inside the arena. If the gruelling weight cut goes as smoothly as last time for Aldo, expect him to call upon his championship experience to feel out the first couple rounds and then begin to overwhelm Yan, timing his power combinations.
Aldo can cement his legacy here, but he has to respect Yan's power and wealth of amateur boxing experience. He will need a flawless performance and the return of his vintage leg kicks would be helpful to slow Yan down. Aldo is the underdog and we may have seen the best of him, but we have not seen the best of Yan and the sky is the limit for the Russian. A knockout or decision either side is possible here.
Winner: Yan via Decision
Jessica Andrade vs Rose Namajunas
Jessica Andrade and Rose Namajunas head to fight island to reschedule their rematch which fell through at UFC 249.
Andrade took home the spoils and Namajunas’ belt back in May last year in spectacular fashion. She was losing the fight rather convincingly on the feet but managed to pull off a thunderous slam, living up to her nickname by pile driving Namajunas into the canvas. She meets Namajunas again but without the belt as she failed to defend against Weili Zhang in China, which has seen the former champion slip to the #4 spot in the strawweight form table.
That loss which derailed a lot of momentum. After dethroning the strawweight queen, Joanna Jedrzejczyk and beating her again in the rematch, Namajunas continued that momentum against Andrade, but that one mistake in holding on to a kimura for too and adding a couple recent deaths in the family related to the Covid-19 pandemic has really hit her off track but now she is determined to get back on the train and a win will see her catapult back up to the top of the form table.
PREDICTION
Namajunas was winning the first fight with her technique, movement and reach enabling her to pepper the Brazilian on the feet. She also defended the first slam attempt by attacking with a submission so you have to feel Namajunas will have a clear and confident strategy if she gets tied up again.
So, expect Namajunas keep the distance by moving laterally, jumping in and out of range while popping Andrade with her jab while respecting that Andrade’s power can change the fight in an instant.
The difference here is that Namajunas will know what to avoid and what works against Andrade and she is expected to cruise three rounds with a hefty output. This is also only three rounds which will create a faster pace despite the heat on Yas Island.
Winner: Namajunas via Decision
Amanda Ribas vs Paige VanZant
Amanda Ribas and Paige VanZant finally have their date after VanZant has recovered from her arm fractures but Ribas moves up to flyweight hunting another scalp.
Ribas has looked exceptional and impresses more with each appearance. After serving a reduced ban for a tainted supplement she met and submitted Emily Whitmire on her UFC debut and then schooled elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner – Mackenzie Dern, handing her, her first loss. She then went on to earn another unanimous decision against UFC veteran Randa Markos in her last outing to rise up the strawweight form table to #5.
Despite submitting Rachael Ostovich in her last fight, VanZant has slipped down the flyweight form table due to her inactivity and losing three of her last five. The win over Ostovich was a great response after losing to Michelle Waterson and Jessica-Rose Clark but her injuries have really stifled any momentum and she is desperate to prove she has more skills in the cage than she does on social media.
PREDICTION
VanZant is a great grappler but Ribas will have the advantage in this department despite moving up from strawwweight. She is a black belt in Judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu but it was her wrestling that enabled her to control the best female submission artist in the UFC for three rounds.
So, VanZant needs to get to work on the feet where she is very talented. Her knockout over Bec Rawlings was sensational but she does not have any notable wins on the record. She is very tough and has the speed and movement to give Ribas problems but the Brazilian just looks a step above in every area at the moment and has her grappling to call upon if she senses any danger on the feet.