UFC Vegas 16 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 16? Sunday 6th December, 2020 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 16? UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 16? No tickets are available as this event will take place without spectators
What channel is UFC Vegas 16 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 16? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
JACK HERMANSSON VS MARVIN VETTORI LOWDOWN
The MMA Gods have given Jack Hermansson (21-5) the runaround for UFC Vegas 16 and he is on his third scheduled opponent. His preparations have to change but hopes the outcome will not as he hunts down a title shot against Israel Adesanya. He was well on course after an impressive four-fight win streak including submissions over Gerald Meerschaert and David Branch and a unanimous decision over Jacare Souza but, Jared Cannonier ruthlessly stopped him in his tracks with a second round TKO. However, he picked himself back up in July with one of his biggest wins to date and submission over former title challenger Kelvin Gastelum.
First, Darren Till pulled out with injury and then Kevin Holland fell victim to COVID-19 so up steps Marvin Vettori (15-4-1). The Italian made his feelings loud and clear as he struggled to find a willing opponent. He finally managed to entice Souza in, but now he has stepped up for an even bigger opportunity, heading to the APEX a week earlier than expected to take on the #4 ranked middleweight. It is hard to say he does not deserve it coming off a dominant submission win over Karl Roberson to make it three wins in a row after taking Adesanya to a split decision.
PREDICTION
Two of Europe’s finest MMA talents will showcase their world class skills in a very intriguing match-up as they are so well-rounded.
They are both slick on the mat with 15 submission wins between them and they will be very-evenly matched if they decide to grapple although Vettori will have to be wary of Hermansson’s guillotine or ‘Jokertine’ as he calls it.
Their grappling skills may cancel each other out to begin with, forcing a stand-up battle which will also be a thrilling contest. Hermansson has a slight height and reach advantage and will try to unsettle Vettori with his awkward and aggressive style, wearing the Italian down with leg kicks.
However, Vettori is very durable and could get the better of Hermansson with his volume especially if he can maintain his 67% strike defence. If he does, it will accelerate Hermansson’s takedown attempts where he will look to get Vettori to the mat backing his jiu-jitsu.
He struggled to control Cannonier and caught an uppercut shooting in but Vettori does not have the same power and Hermansson will be relentless once he decides to take the fight to the floor.
Wherever the fight goes, expect an intense, gritty battle that will be fiercely contested. If there is a finish, a submission is your best bet, but a decision is most likely with Hermansson’s aggression and diverse output swaying the judges.
Prediction: Hermansson via Decision
OVINCE SAINT PREUX VS JAMAHAL HILL
Ovince Saint Preux (OSP) (25-14) walks out for his 23rd UFC fight. He is 13-9 in the UFC and is not quite at ‘gatekeeper’ status yet as he is still knocking fighters out such as Alonzo Menifield. He met the prospect back in September and clapped the knockout artist unconscious with a beautifully timed left hook. This came after losing a close split decision with Ben Rothwell up at heavyweight and although OSP has struggled to form any winning streaks of late, he has proven he is still one of the most dangerous fighters in the division.
The veteran welcomes another prospect to the APEX in the form of Jamahal Hill (7-0 (1)). We last saw him in May at the first event held at the APEX facility (UFC on ESPN 9) where he took on Klidson Abreu and churned him up like a woodchipper, finishing him early with knees and punches. That second UFC win extended his unbeaten record to 8-0 but as Hill tested positive for marijuana, the win was later overturned to a ‘no contest’.
PREDICTION
They are both tall and rangy southpaws with OSP possessing all of the experience and Hill all of the youth and momentum. They both use their range well, especially Hill with his jabs and the timing of his knees.
He did well against Darko Stosic on his UFC debut, but the worrying sign is that Stosic was able to take him down in six of his nine attempts. OSP will be confident on the feet and knocking Hill out but he has a significant advantage in the grappling department and if he does not test his ego on the feet, a win is there for him.
Hill is the favourite here with a knockout most likely, but if OSP decides to clinch and take him down, he has the power to keep him there and the technique to pull off the ninth submission of his career and even another Von Flue or Saint Preux choke.
Prediction: OSP via Submission
MONTANA DE LA ROSA VS TAILA SANTOS
Montana De La Rosa (11-6) is in the unfamiliar territory of losing two of her last three fights. She racked up four submission wins in a row before losing a unanimous decision to Andrea Lee but bounced back well with a dominant decision of her own over Mara Romero Borella. She is coming off another unanimous decision loss to flyweight prospect Viviane Araujo and just wants to get back in the cage as she fills in for Maryna Moroz on short notice.
Taila Santos (16-1) has an impressive looking record and entered the octagon at 14-0 but her 14 opponents had 14 wins between them with Estefani Almeida earning seven of them. On her debut, she somehow lost a split decision to Borella who has since been cut losing four in a row. So, she was the heavy underdog when she took on Molly McCann back in July, but she looked exceptional. She dominated her on the feet and took her down five times earning a dominant decision.
PREDICTION
Santos really announced herself on the big stage against McCann, but De La Rosa is a completely different fighter. Santos dominated the stand-up specialist, but De La Rosa is a grappler – a strong wrestler with great jiu-jitsu. Santos also has not had long to prepare as Moroz pulled out only a couple weeks ago.
So, Santos has gone from preparing for a striker to an established grappler and this will all come down to her takedown defence. If she can stuff the majority of De La Rosa’s takedowns or pose enough of a submission threat in the scrambles, she can control the fight and earn a decision with her output on the feet.
Prediction: Santos via Decision
ROMAN DOLIDZE VS JOHN ALLAN
Roman Dolidze (7-0) returns after his perfect UFC debut. The Georgian arrived to the octagon sitting on a perfect record but had not fought in 19 months. He took on Khadis Ibragimov and caught him with a vicious knee leaving the Russian unaware what year it was. He now makes his second UFC appearance hoping for an active run and to prove he is UFC calibre.
John Allan (13-5(1)) also makes his second UFC appearance but after a debut he was not quite hoping for. He managed to pick up a unanimous decision win over Mike Rodriguez, but it was later overturned to a ‘no contest’ after testing positive for tamoxifen. That was in July last year and now he is ready to return after serving his ban.
PREDICTION
Dolidze has come to the UFC late in his career and has not had many MMA fights but there is no arguing his pedigree as an accomplished jiu-jitsu practitioner with knockout power.
Despite Dolidze’s grappling credentials, he will try and get the job done on the feet. Allan is a dangerous striker as well as having the youth on his side, but he does not have the same speed and pop Dolidze possess and you have to back the Georgian to win the stand-up battle.
He also has a clear route to victory on the ground if he decides to take it there, but he will most likely hunt the knockout and land a blow to set up a submission.
Prediction: Dolidze via Submission
MOSVAR EVLOEV VS NATE LANDWEHR
The former M-1 bantamweight champion Mosvar Evloev (13-0) makes his second outing of the year and is coming off three unanimous decision wins in his first three UFC fights. He met Seung Woo Choi on his debut taking him down five times and then took on Enrique Barzola down four times to bag the points. He then met his match in elite wrestler Mike Grundy and the Brits’ freestyle technique enabled him to take Mosvar down six times and almost submitted him, but the Russian weathered everything and stole the decision with his output on the feet.
Nate ‘The Train’ Landwehr (14-3) is coming off his noisy and triumphant performance against UFC veteran Darren Elkins where he earned a unanimous decision in a great battle. It was an excellent response to his UFC debut where Herbert Burns snapped his seven-fight win streak with a ferocious knee to the dome.
PREDICTION
Landwehr is a mad man and he will give Evloev everything he has got, but it may not be enough. Landwehr is well-rounded with decent takedown defence but Evoloev’s wrestling is on such a level that he is expected to take Landwehr down at will. He will do well to finish Landwehr and, in all likelihood, Evloev will walk away with another unanimous decision.
Prediction: Evloev via Decision
GABRIEL BENITEZ VS JUSTIN JAYNES
Gabriel Benitez (21-8) is healthy again after his bout of COVID-19 and his 10th UFC bout is back on a month later here at UFC Vegas 16. He has struggled in the UFC going 5-4 but has picked up good wins including a unanimous decision over Jason Knight following it up with that memorable slam knockout on Humberto Bandenay. However, he is coming off two losses – firstly, a TKO courtesy of Sodiq Yusuff and a unanimous decision to Omar Morales in May.
Justin Jaynes (16-5) also contracted COVID-19 but now is eager to get his UFC career going. He made his debut off the back of four straight wins where he won and defended the Warrior Xtreme Cagefighting lightweight title. He met veteran Frank Camacho and marked his debut spectacularly with a first-round knockout. However, he made a quick turnaround to meet Gavin Tucker but got submitted snapping the five-fight streak.
PREDICTION
Benitez has more UFC experience, but he has been rather inactive only fighting three times in three years with his last win coming in May 2018 whereas Jaynes has been very active making his fifth appearance of the year.
This should be a stand-up war with Benitez possessing a slight height and reach advantage. They will both bring everything to the table but especially Jaynes who will have his terminally ill father in his corner. It will be a very emotional night for him which could work in is favour or put more pressure on him.
Either way, expect Jaynes to burst out the gate starting very quickly. If Benitez can weather the early storm you should back him to earn a decision, but Jaynes will be very dangerous in the first round.
Prediction: Benitez via Decision
LOUIS SMOLKA VS JOSE ALBERTO QUINONEZ
This pairing was originally slated for UFC Vegas 14 three weeks go but after a botched weight cut by Smolka, he pulled out just before the event but thankfully they have been rescheduled for UFC Vegas 16.
Louis Smolka (16-7) was once a prospect, but inconsistency has really hampered his career. Sitting on 11-1, he went on a four-fight skid and was forced to regain his confidence outside the UFC. After three wins, he returned in 2018 and has gone 2-2 coming off a submission loss to Casey Kenney but he has shown glimpses of his old self.
Jose Alberto Quinonez (8-4) returns after that first-round dismantling Sean O’Malley inflicted upon him in March. He is now 5-3 in the UFC having streaks cut down by prospects. Nathaniel Wood submitted him after his first four UFC wins but he did respond with a unanimous decision win over Carlos Huachin and he hopes to do the same at the APEX.
PREDICTION
Despite Smolka’s seven submission wins and Quinonez having ‘jiu-jitsu’ tattooed on his chest, they have shown holes in their ground game, but it will be a great contest if they decide to grapple. However, the majority of this fight is likely to be played out on the feet which will be very competitive.
They are both rangy bantamweights with high volume striking. Quinonez will cause problems from is southpaw position but Smolka should call upon his experience and mix in wrestling when needed to earn the decision.
Prediction: Smolka via Decision
MATT WIMAN VS JORDAN LEAVITT
The veteran Matt Wiman (16-9) makes his 18th UFC appearance nearly 15 years after making his debut for the organisation. He is a true ‘OG’ of the sport and after his unanimous decision win over Isaac Vallie-Flagg in 2014 we thought we might have seen the last of him with injuries forcing a long hiatus. However, he dusted off the gloves and made his comeback last year against Luis Pena. It did not go as planned suffering a third round TKO and he returned six months later to redeem himself against Joe Solecki but lost again in a unanimous decision making it six years since his last win.
Jordan Leavitt (7-0) hopes to keep that baron run going and extend his unbeaten record in the process. He has fought three times already this year and is coming off a submission win over Jose Flores on the Contender Series and has now been given a huge opportunity on the big stage.
PREDICTION
Wiman is the heavy underdog as he has not proven he still has what it takes to compete at the highest level. He has all the experience, but his prime was a long time ago and Leavitt has all the youth, momentum and hunger to start his UFC career with a bang.
Leavitt is a beast on the ground and all but two of his wins have come via submission. He is heavily favoured to pick up a win but would need a flawless performance to get the submission as Wiman has never been submitted and should have too much experience to make a mistake against the youngster.
Prediction: Leavitt via Decision
JIMMY FLICK VS CODY DURDEN
Jimmy Flick (15-5) gets the call-up after his successful showing on the Contender Series. He met Nate Smith in September off the back of two impressive submissions over Jesse Bazzi (Freestyle Cage Fighting) and Greg Fischer (Legacy Fighting Alliance) and made it three subs in a row with a beautiful arm-triangle back in September.
Cody Durden (11-2-1) is coming off a draw on his UFC debut. He was riding an extremely impressive seven-fight win streak finishing every fight (four knockouts and three submissions) so was given a tough debut. He was paired with Chris Gutierrez who was coming off three impressive UFC wins in a row and they fought to a draw in a quality scrap.
PREDICTION
Durden drops down to flyweight which is very interesting especially as the division is really hotting up now. On paper, this is a very exciting contest. Both fighters bring a furious pace and always look for the finish especially on the ground with their grappling prowess.
Flick makes his UFC debut, but he is an established flyweight fighting good competition. Durden looked exceptional in the early stages of his fight with Gutierrez and if the weight cut goes well, he will be very dangerous at 125 lbs.
This fight should have a mix of everything and it is very tough to call but we give Flick the nod to earn a decision.
Prediction: Flick via Decision
ILIA TOPURIA VS DAMON JACKSON
Ilia Topuria (9-0) returns after his magnificent debut in October. He arrived to the UFC with a lot of hype submitting his first seven victims and then displayed his power by starching Stephen Goncalves for the Brave Combat Federation. He took on the highly touted Yousseff Zalal for his debut who was riding a four-fight win streak but put on a great performance earning a unanimous decision.
Damon Jackson (18-3-1(1) is also coming off a win marking his return to the UFC with an excellent performance. Coming off the 13th submission of his career, choking out Mauro Chaulet for the Legacy Fighting Alliance, Jackson met Mirsad Bektic in September. It was a step up in competition, but Jackson pulled off an incredible submission after getting wrestled for three rounds.
PREDICTION
This should be a great battle between two submission wizards. Jackson has a wealth of experience and is certainly UFC calibre but Topuria looks like the real deal and is a bright prospect in the featherweight division at only 23 years old.
There should be more striking than their previous bouts respecting each other’s skill on the ground but Topuria is still likely to shoot in for the takedown and will be spurred on by the ease in which Bektic took Jackson down.
It will be interesting to see how Topuria copes with Jackson’s threat off his back and how aggressive he will be hunting his own submission. Ultimately, Topuria is expected to edge the stand-up battle but will rely more on his takedowns. Jackson is good enough to prevent the submission but will do well to last three rounds on his back.
Prediction: Topuria via Decision
GIAN VILLANTE VS JAKE COLLIER
Besides knocking out Corey Anderson in 2015, Gian Villante (17-12) has failed to make an impact and fulfil his potential. He is 7-9 in the UFC and decided to move up to heavyweight after getting folded by a liver punch from Michael Oleksiejczuk. We thought we may see his explosive power but gave another limp performance against Maurice Greene who wrapped up a submission in the third round.
Jake Collier (11-5) is another strange case. He was the former Resurrection Fighting Alliance middleweight champion and went 3-3 in the UFC including a fight at light heavyweight. However, we did not see him for two and a half years where he returned completely out of shape up at heavyweight. He made it to Fight Island but had a terrible match-up in Tom Aspinall who made inevitably quick work of him with a first round TKO.
PREDICTION
Both fighters are out of shape and have not given a decent account of themselves in years. Back in the day, they could have put on a great fight with a finish but now you have to expect lacklustre performances. A Villante decision is most likely but if Collier is in the same nick as his last fight, we may even see a late Villante TKO.