UFC 256 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC 256? Sunday 13th December, 2020 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 256? UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 256? No tickets are available as this event will take place without spectators
What channel is UFC 256 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 256? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO VS BRANDON MORENO
With the help of some young raw talent, Deiveson Figueiredo (20-1) has put the flyweight division back on the map. He wrecked one of the best 125ers of all time, Joseph Benavidez twice and made his first title defence only three weeks ago at UFC 255 where he also wrecked Alex Perez. Perez filled in for Cody Garbrandt and got submitted by the finishing machine who now ties flyweight ‘GOAT’ Demetrious Johnson for the most finishes in the division with seven.
Brandon Moreno (18-5-1) lost his opponent Perez at UFC 255 but he still got to fight Brandon Royval and vowed to make a statement after getting overlooked. Royval is one of the hottest prospects in the division and unfortunately dislocated his shoulder leading to a TKO win for Moreno but the Mexican looked exceptional. He looked at his thuggish and had the confidence to go toe-to-toe with the submission wizard on the mat and looked more dangerous. Now unbeaten in five, he gets his deserved title shot.
PREDICTION
It’s great to see both fighters make a quick turnaround. We know they are in great shape, full of confidence and stylistically, this is a fascinating match-up.
Figueiredo has looked dominant on his five-fight win streak and has showcased his unique finishing ability in his biggest fights but Moreno has all the physical and mental tools to give the Brazilian his toughest fight.
Moreno has a slight height and reach advantage and has never been finished in his career. He is extremely durable and will make it a scrap on the feet and as long as he avoids Figueiredo’s power shots, he has the skill on the floor to hang with the Brazilian.
Moreno’s route to victory is weathering the first two rounds and testing Figueiredo’s gas tank as he has never gone past the third round. The champion is just a level above in every area apart from stamina and if the fight goes into the championship rounds, you have to back Moreno who will finish stronger.
So, if the fight goes to the bell, Moreno can easily earn the decision to pull off the upset but surviving the early rounds against someone of Figueiredo’s finishing ability is easier said than done. Both men are in their prime and a Moreno decision or even a late submission is possible if Figueiredo gases out, but we back him for another finish.
Prediction: Figueiredo via KO/TKO
TONY FERGUSON VS CHARLES OLIVEIRA
We have seen Tony ‘El Cucuy’ Ferguson (25-4) take some damage over the years, but Justin Gaethje dished out a beatdown no one was quite expecting back at UFC 249. Gaethje snapped Ferguson’s record breaking 12-fight win streak to deny him his long-awaited shot against Khabib Nurmagomedov and it seems we will never get to see that fight. It was surprising to see Ferguson lose the way he did, but it would be more surprising to him lose his confidence and tenacity.
Charles ‘Do Bronx’ Oliveira (29-8(1)) is the man assigned for his comeback and what an opponent he is. He is a veteran with the most finishes and submissions in UFC history and has never looked better riding a seven-fight win streak with two knockouts and five submissions. His most recent victim was Kevin Lee who he guillotined in the third round back in March to finally earn a top contender.
PREDICTION
These guys are two of the most entertaining fighters in the UFC and have 28 performance bonuses between them to prove it. Seven of Oliveira’s 17 UFC wins were at featherweight and since his move back up to lightweight in 2017 he continued his domination on the mat but has also displayed some knockout power recently.
Ferguson is a lunatic in the cage and he will not be deterred by Oliveira’s grappling skills or sniping power in the slightest. He will be happy to spark scrambles and tussle on the ground as well as engage in an unorthodox brawl where he is most confident.
Ferguson did get a beating in his last fight, but Oliveira has nowhere near the same power as Gaethje although very few lightweights do. So, if ‘Do Bronx’ tries to slug it out with Ferguson, he will make it a war but may get a painful reminder of how ‘El Cucuy’ became one of the most feared fighters in the division.
Oliveira has to try and get the fight to the ground and let’s hope he does because Ferguson is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He is not quite on the same level as Oliveira, but he has the awkwardness and aggressiveness to make it an epic scrap on the ground.
Oliveira has every chance of another submission if he can lock Ferguson down, but Ferguson is good enough to scramble out of the takedown attempts to keep the fight on the feet and slice Oliveira up with an onslaught of punches, knees, elbows and kicks. In a five rounder, a finish would be likely, but we could see a three-round war with Ferguson coming out on top.
Prediction: Ferguson via Decision
MACKENZIE DERN VS VIRNA JANDIROBA
The jiu-jitsu phenom Mackenzie Dern (9-1) is back snatching limbs after suffering the first loss of her career. She walked through her first seven opponents including two UFC fights but ran into fellow prospect Amanda Ribas getting a rich taste of humble pie. She expected to take Ribas down and make her another victim but Ribas was a class above on the feet and even took Dern down twice herself controlling the submission wizard on the ground. However, Dern bounced back with two ‘performance of the night’ bonuses submitting Hannah Cifers and Randa Markos.
The matchmakers have paired her up with Virna Jandiroba (16-1) who is arguably the most dangerous jiu-jitsu practitioner in the division outside Dern. She stormed her way to 14-0 with 11 submissions to earn a debut against Carla Esparza but was not quite ready for the former strawweight champion losing a decision. However, like Dern, she has bounced back from her first loss with two more submissions who were against Mallory Martin and Felice Herrig.
PREDICTION
Grappling lovers will hope this fight takes place solely on the ground but MMA does not work that way. Any grappling exchanges will be a fascinating contest, but the difference could end up being on the feet where they are also evenly matched.
Dern has had a full camp and has been working with Jason Parillo who is one of the best striking coaches in the game and his nous could be the deciding factor. We should see some striking and some grappling attempts with their jiu-jitsu cancelling each other out forcing a decision but we expect Dern to enter the APEX a more well-rounded fighter.
Prediction: Dern via Decision
RONALDO JACARE SOUZA VS KEVIN HOLLAND
Jacare Souza (26-8(1)) has a change of opponent after Vettori stepped up to fight Jack Hermansson last week. He drops back down to middleweight after his unsuccessful outing over a year ago. He decided to try his hand up at light heavyweight after a unanimous decision loss to Hermansson but matched up with Jan Blachowicz who is now the champion. He took him all the way to a close split decision and it may be a blessing in disguise, fast-forwarding his light heavyweight title fate especially at 41 years of age.
You cannot keep Kevin Holland (20-5) out of the cage who makes his fifth appearance of the year. He is one of the most active fighters on the entire roster and has fought 12 times since 2018 only losing to Thiago Santos who he fought on short notice and Brendan Allen who submitted him a year ago. Since he has won four on the bounce knocking out Anthony Hernandez, Joaquin Buckley and Charlie Ontiveros who he slammed after earning a razor thin split decision over Darren Stewart.
PREDICTION
Jacare has lost five of his last nine and there is no doubt he is coming to the end of his career but that said, he is still at the top of the food chain when it comes to jiu-jitsu, he has knockout power and experience Holland does not have.
The question will be whether he has enough to halt the momentum and youth of Holland who is getting better with each fight. He will boast a significant nine-inch reach advantage and if he can keep the fight on the feet, he should win the exchanges and test the granite chin of Jacare.
The 54% takedown defence will wet the appetite of Jacare who is expected to shoot in once Holland starts to land clean. Jacare will make this a dog fight but the longer it stays on the feet the more chance Holland has in getting the knockout or winning the rounds. Holland is the favourite but if Jacare takes him down, a submission will be waiting for him.
Prediction: Jacare Souza via Submission
JUNIOR DOS SANTOS VS CIRYL GANE
Junior dos Santos (21-8) keeps walking back into the lion’s den to take on the most dangerous fighters in the UFC. He still has the class and technique as we saw on his terrific three-fight win streak where he earned a unanimous decision over Blagoy Ivanov and knocked out Tai Tuivasa and Derrick Lewis. However, he then ran into the paths of Francis Ngannou, Curtis Blaydes and Jairzinho Rozenstruik getting finished in every fight.
He now crosses paths with the hottest prospect in the division Ciryl Gane (6-0). He has only had six pro fights, but he has the skill to match his raw power and athleticism. He has had three UFC bouts submitting Raphael Pessoa and Don’Tale Mayes and last fought a year ago earning a unanimous decision over Tanner Boser. Since then, he has had cancelled fight after cancelled fight and although he has had to wait too long, the former heavyweight champion has stepped up with an opportunity to fast-track him right to the top of the division.
PREDICTION
Dos Santos has all the experience, he is the former champion with some of the best boxing and takedown defence in the division. He has shared the cage with absolute monsters, but his chin has racked up so many miles on the clock now and has taken a significant amount of damage.
Gane has knockout power and is also a beast on the mat. He is unlikely to take dos Santos down who is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, so a submission will be as a result of a knock down and the fight will already be over.
So, this will be a stand-up fight which is dos Santos’ domain, but it is hard to see his chin holding up. The Brazilian can knock Gane out and outclass him in a decision but Gane has the power and reach to knock him out early. The fact that Curtis Blaydes knocked dos Santos out on the feet puts the writing on the wall.
Prediction: Gane via KO/TKO
CUB SWANSON VS DANIEL PINEDA
We have not seen fan favourite Cub Swanson (26-11) for over a year where he bounced back from a four-fight skid to hand Kron Gracie his first loss and lesson in MMA. He stumbled against killers – Brian Ortega (submission), Frankie Edgar (unanimous decision), Renato Moicano (submission) and Shane Burgos (split decision) but the veteran reminded everyone of his class against the jiu-jitsu wizard. He showcased his own jiu-jitsu skills a month later competing at the Quintet Ultra but tore his ACL tangling with Jake Shields. However, he has made a quick recovery and back in action.
Daniel Pineda (27-13(2)) welcomes him back to the octagon who received his own welcome back from Herbert Burns back in August. He got cut in 2013 after going 3-4 in the UFC but then went 9-2(2) fighting for the likes of the Legacy Fighting Alliance, Bellator, Fury Fighting Championship and the Professional Fighters League. He resigned for the UFC who tested him with Burns who was on a five-fight win and finishing streak, but Pineda put on a great performance capped off with a savage TKO in the second round.
PREDICTION
Pineda has looked great recently, particularly in his last fight although Burns did have a botched weight cut and did not look himself. Swanson has the experience and unpredictable technique to give any featherweight problems, but it was a bad knee injury at Quintet Ultra and his style is all about footwork and movement, so we are not sure how well he has recovered.
They are very similar physically and very well-rounded thriving on high volume striking. If Pineda tries to win this fight on the feet, he will be entering Swanson’s wheelhouse and may struggle to keep up with his pace. This promises to be a very close fight and likely to end in a decision and if Swanson’s knee is 100% he should sway the judges landing more significant strikes.
Prediction: Swanson via Decision
RENATO MOICANO VS RAFAEL FIZIEV
Renato Moicano (14-3-1) is coming off a successful comeback and debut at lightweight. The former featherweight prospect ran into Jose Aldo and Chan Sung Jung getting finished on the feet but returned almost a year later in March against Damir Hadzovic and looked back to his best submitting the Bosnian in the first round.
Rafael Fiziev (8-1) put every lightweight notice with his last performance. He took on fellow striker Marc Diakese and put on a clinic outclassing the Englishman to earn a unanimous decision. That made it two on the bounce with his decision over Alex White after his debut loss and memorable knockout to Magomed Mustafaev.
PREDICTION
On paper, this looks like a classic grappler vs striker match-up between Moicano the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with zero knockouts and Fiziev the Muay Thai and kickboxing specialist with five knockouts, but they are both well-rounded.
Fiziev will be desperate to keep the fight on the feet where he has the ability to avoid any damage and knock Moicano out. His limbs are like weapons and he throws with a lot of power as well as technique.
The Brazilian is a good boxer with dangerous leg kicks but he should not waste any time in shooting in for the takedown. He looked great in his last fight and is certainly a more natural lightweight, so we expect him to look even better here.
This all depends on the takedown defence of Fiziev who has not been taken down in the UFC yet. The longer the fight stays on the feet the more you have to back Fiziev but if Moicano gets him pinned on the mat, he will be in trouble.
This is a very tough fight to call and Fiziev is the favourite, but we are backing Moicano who only needs one opportunity to take the back.
Prediction: Moicano via Submission
GAVIN TUCKER VS BILLY QUARANTILLO
Gavin Tucker (12-1) is starting to build some momentum again after Rick Glenn handed him the first loss of his career in a decision back in 2017. He returned from injury in July last year and got back to old ways with a submission over Seung Woo Choi and then we had to wait another year to see him again, but it was like he never left securing another third-round rear-naked choke, this time over Justin Jaynes.
Billy Quarantillo (15-2) has been far more active recently making his third outing of the year. After a successful debut and submission over Jacob Kilburn, he put on a show with Spike Carlyle earning a unanimous decision. He followed that up with a spectacular win in September, knocking Kyle Nelson out right at the start of the third round.
PREDICTION
This could easily be a ‘fight of the night’ contender and will be fiercely contested. They are both well-rounded finishers with 10 knockouts and 11 submissions between them, but their durability could push this to the bell.
Quarantillo has all the momentum riding an eight-fight win streak and although this is destined to be an absolute scrap, Tucker’s defence is not quite good enough to withstand Quarantillo’s pressure combined with a four-inch reach and height advantage, but this could go either way.
Prediction: Quarantillo via Decision
TECIA TORRES VS SAM HUGHES
Fortunately, Tecia Torres (11-5) still gets to throw down at UFC 256 after Angela Hill dropped out a week ago with COVID-19. She was on the brink of losing her job dropping four unanimous decisions in a row but met Brianna Van Buren back in June and fought like she had something to prove. She completely outclassed Van Buren snapping her four-fight win streak with a dominant, aggressive display.
Sam Hughes (5-1) replaces Hill on short notice snapping up the chance to make her UFC debut. She is at the start of her MMA career and had three fights for the Legacy Fighting Alliance. She earnt a unanimous decision over Lisa Mauldin before suffering her first loss getting caught in Crystal Demopoulos’ triangle, but she bounced back in October putting Danielle Hindley to sleep in a guillotine.
PREDICTION
Hughes has nothing to lose stepping up on short notice against the veteran. She is athletic with a dangerous submission game, but this is still a mismatch.
Torres lost four fights in a row, but one was to the surging Marina Rodriguez who dwarfed her in size and the other three were to current and former UFC champions: Weili Zhang, Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Jessica Andrade.
There was also a different feel about Torres in her last fight and despite the change in opponent she will come out the same. She will be more aggressive and in immense condition to put on a furious pace for three rounds. She will go for the finish but is expected to overwhelm Hughes in a decision
Prediction: Torres via Decision
SERGEY SPIVAC VS JARED VANDERAA
Sergey Spivac (11-2) is 2-2 in the UFC and is desperate for a win in attempt to make an impression in the heavyweight division. He had a tough out on his debut getting mauled and finished by Walt Harris but responded with a great submission over Tai Tuivasa. He slipped again in a decision with Marcin Tybura but bounced back again with a great win over Carlos Felipe earning a more dominant decision than the judges suggested and now hopes for his first back-to-back wins in the UFC.
Jared Vanderaa (11-4) gets his wish after calling out Spivac for his first UFC fight. He finished Harry Hunsucker via TKO on the Contender Series and brazenly made the call-out before stepping under the bright lights. The UFC like that attitude though and he has a huge opportunity to make in three wins in a row on his debut.
PREDICTION
These guys match-up very similarly physically and although Vanderaa makes his UFC debut, he is very confident and packs a lot of power posing a serious threat with his hands.
That said, Spivac’s experience swings this in his favour. The stand-up battle will be competitive but Spivac should come out on top with the superior grappling to call upon when needed.
Prediction: Spivac via Submission
CHASE HOOPER VS PETER BARRETT
The Chase Hooper (9-1-1) hype train got truly derailed back in July. Unbeaten in 10 fights, the unassuming Hooper built up a head of steam with his grappling prowess coming off a dominant debut and TKO over Daniel Teymur. He met Alex Caceres for his second fight who was seemingly fed to the prospect to get taken down, but the veteran displayed all of his class and experience humbling Hooper by keeping the fight on the feet and peppering him for three bruising rounds.
Peter Barrett (11-4) is a more appropriate step down for Hooper, but he is no slouch at all. He earnt a UFC contract by beating Sang Hoon Yoo via unanimous decision on the Contender Series back in April last year, but he was handed a very tough UFC debut. He took on Youssef Zalal at UFC Fight Night 174 and became part of Zalal’s four-fight win streak.
PREDICTION
Hooper had a poor night against Caceres, but it should prove to be a steep and valuable learning curve for the youngster. Barrett is an aggressive and hard-hitting southpaw who is dangerous with all limbs. He will be a significant threat to Hooper on the feet, particularly with his knees as Hooper shoots in for the takedown.
Hooper is the heavy favourite, so he still has a lot of hype behind him. If he is prepared and takes Barrett seriously avoiding any damage when shooting in, he should secure the takedown and waste little time in cinching up a submission, but this is not a given and all the value is on Barrett to pull off the upset.