UFC Vegas 15 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 15? Sunday 29th November, 2020 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 15? UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 15? No tickets are available as this event will take place without spectators
What channel is UFC Vegas 15 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 15? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
CURTIS BLAYDES VS DERRICK LEWIS
Curtis Blaydes (14-2 (1)) returns to the APEX obsessed with getting a title shot but with Stipe Miocic not planning to return anytime soon and Jon Jones now in the picture, he has no choice but to keep active and cement his place behind Francis Ngannou in the contender queue. Ngannou is the only man that has beaten Blaydes and after his second burial in 2018, Blaydes has won four on the trot and is coming off two dominant performances. He knocked out Junior dos Santos on the feet shockingly and wrestled Volkov for five rounds in an uneventful unanimous decision.
Derrick Lewis (24-7(1)) does not have the same title aspirations but instead happy to just slay and get paid. He is on a three-fight win streak and managed to earn narrow decisions over Blagoy Ivanov and Ilir Latifi but he is coming off a more vintage performance against Alexey Oleynik where he collected his 11th knockout in the UFC breaking the heavyweight record.
PREDICTION
The game plan for both men is clear and that is for Lewis to defend the takedown and find the knockout whereas Blaydes will try and take Lewis down as soon as possible, unleash ground-and-pound hoping for a knockout but settling for a decision.
We know Lewis has one-punch knockout power and if he is on his feet, he is a threat until the final seconds as we saw in his fight with Volkov. Blaydes managed to knock dos Santos out on the feet but do not expect that here. Although Lewis is hard to take down, Blaydes is expected to get the big man to the ground and keep him there for as long as he likes. He will beat Lewis up on but will most likely sign the night off with another decision.
Prediction: Blaydes via Decision
ANTHONY SMITH VS DEVIN CLARK
Anthony Smith (33-16) replaces Shamil Gamzatov who could not make the trip due to visa issues. He steps up hoping to get back in the win column after losing three of his last four fights however, they were against absolute juggernauts. He got a well-earned title shot against Jon Jones after finishing Rashad Evans, Shogun Rua and Volkan Oezdemir but was outclassed by the champion. He bounced back with the most impressive win of his career and submission over Alexander Gustafsson but is coming off a beating and TKO loss to Glover Teixeira and a unanimous decision to Aleksandar Rakic.
Devin Clark (12-4) now heads to the APEX to take on his biggest name. He is a solid light heavyweight but has not shown enough to break the upper echelon. He is 6-4 in the UFC but is coming off two wins and unanimous decisions over Dequan Townsend and Alonzo Menifield. He has been finished in all of his losses but three of them were to the current champion Jan Blachowicz, Rakic and Ryan Spann so has gained valuable experience despite the losses.
PREDICTION
Clark is a powerful beast, but he is a welcomed step down in competition for Smith who is coming off tough battles with top contenders. All Clark’s UFC wins have come via decisions. He is not going to submit Smith and a knockout is unlikely.
Clark’s best to victory is sticking to his strengths by wrestling Smith for three rounds, wear him down, get him on his back to pour on some ground-and-pound.
Smith makes a quick turnaround after his mauling by Teixeira which is a worry, but we expect him to show his old heart and bounce back like he has done in the past. He is a better striker and can knock Clark out or at least knock him down to set up a submission with his exceptional jiu-jitsu, but a decision is most likely.
Prediction: Smith via Decision
JOSH PARISIAN VS PARKER PORTER
Josh Parisian (13-3) makes his UFC debut after racking up his sixth TKO in a row. He has been very active and made it on to the Contender Series riding a five-fight win streak and three months ago he put Chad Johnson away starting the assault with a vicious knee in the clinch.
He takes on Parker Porter (9-6) who is coming off the wrong end of a similar assault. He was coming off a submission over Kevin Ray Sears and a knockout over Dirlei Broenstrup for CES MMA and met Chris Daukaus on his debut. However, it did not go to plan after Daukaus ended the night early with a knee and flurry of punches.
PREDICTION
Both rotund figures are expected to throw heavy bombs until someone falls. Porter has more of a submission threat, but this is likely to end on the feet with Parisian coming out on top. He is more dynamic and will boast a four-inch reach and height advantage which will key in the exchanges and landing the killer blow.
Prediction: Parisian via KO/TKO
MIGUEL BAEZA VS TAKASHI SATO
Miguel Baeza (9-0) walks out for his second outing of the year looking to extend his unbeaten record. After earning a dominant unanimous decision over Victor Reyna on the Contender Series, he got the call-up and took on Hector Aldana on his debut. He got back to his knockout ways by crumpling him with a leg and finishing him in the second round and followed it up with the biggest win of his career and TKO over veteran Matt Brown.
He takes on fellow knockout artist, Takashi Sato (16-3) who also kicked off his UFC career with a TKO. He mercilessly finished veteran Ben Saunders to earn a shot at Belal Muhammad but felt the rise in class with a rear-naked choke. However, he bounced back in true Sato fashion, knocking out Jason Witt in the first round back in June.
PREDICTION
Baeza does not have any submissions on the record but he is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu who has simply fallen in love with his hands which is understandable with the seven knockout wins. He is expected to approach this fight in his usual manner in recklessly hunting the chin of Sato.
As dangerous as Baeza’s hands are, he cannot afford to rush in, leaving his chin exposed against Sato. The Japanese native has serious knockout power of his own and the technique to exploit the holes in Baeza’s defence.
Sato also has a black belt in judo with brutal ground-and-pound, but he is expected to back his hands to get the job done so, this will be a stand-up battle that is very unlikely to go the distance.
Baeza is the favourite and we back him for another knockout as he has so much firepower, but all the value is on a Sato knockout. Baeza’s only weakness is his technique/defence and Sato can easily catch him with a counter.
Prediction: Baeza via KO/TKO
SPIKE CARLYLE VS BILL ALGEO
The main card for UFC Vegas 15 kicks off in style with Spike Carlyle (9-2) returning with a full training camp behind him. He fought Billy Quarantillo back in May at a catchweight of 150 lbs and it was a war. They put on a great show but Quarantillo eventually came out on top in a unanimous decision which broke Carlyle’s impressive five-fight win streak.
Bill Algeo (13-5) also heads to the APEX coming off a unanimous decision loss. He stepped up two weeks after outpointing Tim Dooling for the Cage Fury Fighting Championships as a replacement for Ryan Hall. However, UFC veteran Ricardo Lamas was his match and was outclassed in his swansong. A tough way to start your UFC career but it is all good experience and now he hopes to build on that win over Tim Dooling.
PREDICTION
This is a very exciting match-up to start the card as both men should bring a furious pace. Although this is Algeo’s second UFC fight, he has some great experience fighting high calibre fighters. We expect him to make another good account of himself and will be a threat on the feet with a slight height and reach advantage, but Carlyle’s output, power and wrestling is likely to make the difference earning a decision.
Prediction: Carlyle via Decision
ASHLEE EVANS-SMITH VS NORMA DUMONT
Considering Ashlee Evans-Smith (6-4) made her debut all the way back in 2013, it is wild that she has only had 10 professional fights. She is 3-4 in the UFC and only fought twice in the last three years. These outings came after two losses in 2017 losing a decision to Ketlen Vieira and getting submitted by Sarah Moras. She returned in 2018 with a decision over Bec Rawlings but is coming off another decision loss to Andrea Lee 21 months ago.
Norma Dumont (4-1) appeared on the scene to try and pad out the hollow featherweight division. She made her UFC debut after only four professional fights and took on the established 145er Megan Anderson. It was a step-up too far and she got knocked out in the first round.
PREDICTION
Bantamweight is a more natural weight class for Dumont and we will get a better chance to see her talent here. The Brazilian is a national sanda champion so is very competent on the feet as well as having takedowns in her locker.
Although Evans-Smith has been inactive, her experience fighting much more accomplished fighters will be crucial and why she is the favourite. She moves up from flyweight, but they are very similar physically.
Expect Dumont to open up with heavy leg kicks threatening the takedown but she will have to be careful in not ending up on her back as Evans-Smith has dangerous ground-and-pound.
Evans-Smith is the sensible pick as Dumont has only had five fights and not won against anybody of note, but we have a feeling her leg kicks and grappling may enable her to pull off a big upset.
Prediction: Dumont via Decision
MARTIN DAY VS ANDERSON DOS SANTOS
Martin Day (8-4) heads to the APEX looking to pick up his first UFC win. He arrived to the UFC at 8-2 off the back of three wins in 2018 and a knockout over Brady Huang in the Universal Reality Combat Championship but he lost a split decision on his debut against Pingyuan Liu. He returned 20 months later at UFC 251, but it could not have gone worse after getting flatlined by Davey Grant.
He takes on Anderson dos Santos (20-8) who is also without a win after his two UFC bouts. He compiled a decent looking record on the regional scene but has experienced the step-up in UFC competition. He took on Nad Narimani in 2018 and Andre Ewell last year but lost unanimous decisions in both fights.
PREDICTION
There is a lot of pressure on both men as a third loss in a row could be curtains for their UFC career. That said, we fully expect them both to bring a fast pace with a lot of volume. The majority of the fight should be on the feet and it will be a closely contested scrap, but Day will have the edge. He has a height and reach advantage and his output is likely to be the deciding factor, landing more significant strikes to seal a decision or even pull off a late knockout.
Prediction: Day via Decision
GINA MAZANY VS RACHAEL OSTOVICH
Gina Mazany (6-4) continues her second stint in the UFC gunning for her second win on the big stage. She made her debut in 2017 but experienced a baptism of fire facing Olympic wrestler Sara McMann in just her fifth pro fight. She got submitted but bounced back brilliantly earning a unanimous decision over Wu Yanan but got cut after losing against Lina Lansberg and Macy Chiasson. She returned to action nearly a year later for King of the Cage making short work of Valerie Barney at lightweight finishing her via TKO in the first round and then got the call-up again but got paired with another bantamweight beast in the form of Julia Avila getting finished herself before the fight really begun.
Rachael Ostovich (4-5) is back in action after USADA detected Ostarine in a supplement eight months ago. The suspension is over and now hopes to build on her unflattering record and put her miserable time outside the octagon behind her. After her showing on The Ultimate Fighter in 2017 she submitted Karine Gevorgyan on her debut, but she has only fought once a year since without a win. She got submitted by Montana De La Rosa in 2018 and then Paige VanZant last year
PREDICTION
Both ladies have not exactly set the world alight with their skill and another poor showing could see the UFC reconsider their contracts. Ostovich is a decent grappler but she has been completely outclassed on the ground by the likes of Andrea Lee, De La Rosa and VanZant but fortunately for her, Mazany does not have their grappling prowess.
Mazany is a better striker and she will be the bigger woman with a six-inch reach and three-inch height advantage. If she can use her extra weight and size to defend the takedown and keep it a striking battle, you have to back her to get a decision but if Ostovich gets the takedown she could dominate the rounds and even pull off a submission.
Mazany has had a rough time in the octagon but her opponents have been a considerable level above Ostovich. She also has a full training camp behind her as opposed to the few days preparation she had against Avila and we are backing her to pick up a decision and even a TKO with a flawless performance,
Prediction: Mazany via Decision
JONATHAN PEARCE VS KAI KAMAKA
After losing three fights in a row, Jonathan Pearce’s (9-4) future looked uncertain, but he bounced back defiantly making his first two appearances for Bellator submitting Damir Ferthatbegovic and knocking out Omar Johnson. He strung three more wins together to earn a dream opportunity fighting Joe Lauzon in the UFC, but the veteran handed out a lesson knocking him out in the first round.
He was originally scheduled to fight Sean Woodson, but he has dropped out giving Kai Kamaka (8-2) his second cap in the UFC. He has quietly compiled a six-fight win streak against some decent opposition in King of the Cage and Bellator but appeared on the featherweight radar after his unanimous decision win over Tony Kelly back at UFC 252 in August.
PREDICTION
Based on their last outings, this should be a comfortable night for Kamaka. Pearce had a miserable night falling victim to Lauzon’s first knockout in four years whereas Kamaka looked great against Kelley putting on a ‘Fight of the Night’ performance. That’s said, Kamaka moves up a division and has to respect Pearce’s power.
Pearce is the heavy underdog but has a great chance in causing an upset. However, we back Kamaka’s technique on the feet to avoid the knockout threat while winning the exchanges and he also has his grappling to call upon if required to secure a decision.
Prediction: Kamaka via Decision
SU MUDAERJI VS MALCOLM GORDON
After Su Mudaerji (12-4) made his debut off the back off a loss, he suffered another setback in losing to Louis Smolka. He got submitted by Haobin Ma in the Wu Lin Feng promotion in China and then Smolka marked his return to the UFC by making it two submission losses in a row for Mudaerji. That was two years ago and he returned nearly a year later to get his UFC career up and running earning a unanimous decision over Andre Soukhamthath. However, that was in August 2019 and we have not seen him since.
Malcolm Gordon (12-4) welcomes him back and also hopes to be more active. After four wins in a row including three submissions under the TKO banner, the Canadian’s streak was snapped over a year later back in July. After several bouts that fell through, Gordon finally made his UFC debut, but it did not go to plan falling in Amir Albazi’s triangle in the first round.
PREDICTION
The first stats that jump off the page are Mudaerji’s four submission losses and Gordon’s six submission wins. This will be a factor if the fight goes to the floor but, the more important factor is likely to be Mudaerji’s power. All but two of his wins have come via knockout and he will be the bigger man stepping down to flyweight. He should have too much on the feet for Malcolm whose chin has been tested a lot already in his career.
Prediction: Mudaerji via KO/TKO
LUKE SANDERS VS NATHAN MANESS
We have not seen Luke Sanders (13-3) for a hot minute having not fought for 21 months where he took on Renan Barao. He ruthlessly finished the former bantamweight king in an exceptional performance, but it was part of a limp ending to the Brazilian’s career losing his last five fights. That win made it 3-3 in the UFC for Sanders and he hopes for an impressive win to make any kind of impression on the bantamweight division.
He takes on featherweight Nathan Maness (12-1) who will cut to 140 lbs for a catchweight bout. He is coming off a successful UFC debut against Johnny Munoz earning a unanimous decision with the help of a point deduction back at UFC Fight Night 173. This was his second win in a row after suffering the first setback of his career against Taylor Lapilus for the TKO promotion.
PREDICTION
As impressive as Sanders’ knockout over Barao’s knockout was, we cannot read too much into it as Barao is a shadow of his former self. That said, he is still the favourite going into the fight and the key for him will be his wrestling.
Maness will be the bigger fighter and will have a five-inch reach and four-inch height advantage, but he can only make use of it if he stays on his feet. His takedown defence will be tested but he is now dedicating all of his time to MMA after quitting his job and we are backing him to pull off the upset.