UFC Vegas 17 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 17? Saturday 19th December, 2020 - 22:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 17? UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 17? No tickets are available as this event will take place without spectators
What channel is UFC Vegas 17 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 17? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
STEPHEN THOMPSON VS GEOFF NEAL
37-year-old Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson (15-4-1) heads to the APEX for his 16th UFC fight and first outing of the year. That outing was with Vicente Luque which was an incredible striking battle with the decorated kickboxer coming out on top in a unanimous decision. That fight was over a year ago but came in response to his unanimous decision loss to Darren Till and spectacular knockout loss to Anthony Pettis.
He takes on the bogeyman of the division, Geoff Neal (13-2). No one wants to fight him and it is understandable as he is not a big name yet but one one of the most dangerous fighters in the division. He is on a seven-fight win streak and steamrolled through all five of his UFC opponents. Belal Muhammad had to make him work for a unanimous decision but Neal went on to knock out Niko Price and crack the granite chin of Mike Perry with a devastating head kick a year ago.
PREDICTION
Both men have been out for a while with Neal recovering from pneumonia which forced him out of his fight with Neil Magny in August. This is such a compelling fight as Wonderboy is technically one of the very best strikers in MMA with championship experience whereas Neal is the dark horse in the division with endless potential and knockout power to stiffen anyone on the division.
The question will be if Wonderboy’s masterful movement and timing will be enough to avoid the power of Neal. If Neal wins, you have to expect it to be a brutal knockout catching Wonderboy off guard like Pettis did and if Wonderboy wins you have to expect it to be a patient and strategic point fight and decision. Either is likely but as this is now five rounds, Wonderboy gets the nod.
Prediction: Thompson via Decision
JOSE ALDO VS MARLON VERA
Jose Aldo (28-7) has lost his last three fights, but they were to Alexander Volkanovski who is now the featherweight champion on a 19-fight win streak, Marlon Morae who he arguably beat in a split decision after dropping down to bantamweight and Petr Yan in a title fight who is on a 10-fight win streak. Aldo has received a lot of punishment in recent years and is past his best, but he is still an absolute weapon, especially at 135 lbs.
Marlon ‘Chito’ Vera (16-6-1) heads to the APEX hoping to pile on more misery to the former featherweight king. He has only lost once in his last seven fights which was a controversial unanimous decision loss to Song Yadong back in May. However, he responded brilliantly coming up against the hottest prospect in the division, Sean O’Malley and spoiled the show with a quick TKO sparked by a pinpoint calf kick.
PREDICTION
This should be a technical and violent battle on the feet. They have virtually the same height and reach but Aldo is the more powerful striker, and that power will be more lethal over three rounds with less time to empty the tank. He has only lost to the best suffering in the championship rounds but that is not due to cardio but instead just getting overpowered by younger monsters.
Vera has the skill and power to cause Aldo problems, but he will have to start quickly knowing how dangerous Aldo is over three rounds. Vera has proven he is one of the best fighters in the division but if Aldo’s weight cut goes smoothly again and is motivated, he should have too much speed, too much power and ultimately too much experience for Chito and if he does not get a late knockout, he will earn a decision.
Prediction: Aldo via Decision
MICHEL PEREIRA VS KHAOS WILLIAMS
The performer, Michel Pereira (24-11-2) returns to the cage for the third time this year. He has had a topsy-turvy time in the UFC. He started with a highlight reel, flying knee knockout over Danny Roberts but then got embarrassed by the smaller Tristan Connelly, then dominated Diego Sanchez but got disqualified due to an illegal knee and is now coming off a normal fight by his standards – a submission and ‘performance of the night’ against Zelim Imadaev.
Khaos Williams (11-1) is no stranger to the highlight reel himself and has added to his knockout compilation in his first two UFC fights. He entered the UFC riding a six-fight win streak and extended it to eight with to brutal knockouts. Firstly, against Alex Morono in February and then an absolute starching of fellow knockout artist Abdul Razak Alhassan last month.
PREDICTION
Pereira is a huge welterweight and usually boasts the size and power advantage, but Williams has a long reach and will have four inches on Pereira. This will be important in the exchanges, but Pereira can navigate around that reach with his movement and dynamism although he will have to pace himself.
Pereira also has the grappling advantage and considering Williams’s one-punch knockout power he may be wise to swallow his ego and take the fight to the floor. That is hard to see happening as Pereira is a proven assassin on the feet.
So, this depends on Pereira’s game plan. If he executes a thought-out strategy, he should win but if he trades blow for blow with Williams he is likely to get knocked out. A tough one to call but we are backing Williams and if he does not land an early knockout, he will finish stronger to earn a decision.
Prediction: Williams via Decision
MARLON MORAES VS ROB FONT
Marlon Moraes (23-7-1) is done licking his wounds after Cory Sandhagen’s spinning wheel kick clipped his dome sparking the end of a spectacular finish. Moraes was gunning for another title shot after he managed to pick up a razor thin decision over Jose Aldo. However, Sandhagen scuppered those plans to march towards the bantamweight belt now held by Petr Yan.
Rob Font (17-4) has only fought twice in two years last fighting a year ago but is still ranked #11 in the stacked division. He has earnt the spot after earning unanimous decisions over Sergio Pettis and Ricky Simon which came in response to coming off the wrong end on a unanimous decision in his fight with Rapahel Assuncao in 2018.
PREDICTION
This is good matchmaking with Font making his return against a big name who is coming off a loss and this is a tough fight for Moraes but an impressive win will put him back towards title contention.
Font has been inactive recovering from ACL surgery and hopefully he is 100% as he will have to be against Moraes. There is a lot of pressure on the Brazilian as another loss will see him slip right down the pecking order.
Font is very durable, experienced and will have a slight height and reach advantage. He will keep up a great pace for a full three rounds and has the grappling to call upon to wear Moraes down. The value is with Font, but it is easy to sleep on Moraes with his recent losses and we expect him to look back to his best with his lightening fast kicks and combinations. Three rounds also suits him and we back him to earn a decision at least.
Prediction: Moraes via Decision
GILLIAN ROBERTSON VS TAILA SANTOS
Gillian Robertson (9-4) had her fight with Andrea Lee scrapped last week at UFC 256 after Lee broke her nose but thankfully has another talented flyweight is available amid all the recent dropouts. Robertson has already fought twice this year stringing impressive back-to-back wins. She submitted Cortney Casey in June and then followed it up with a unanimous decision over Poliana Botelho in October on Fight Island.
Taila Santos (16-1) is available after Montana De La Rosa had to pull out just before UFC Vegas 16 as one of her cornermen tested positive for COVID-19. Santos goes into her third scheduled fight with an impressive looking record and entered the octagon at 14-0 but her 14 opponents had 14 wins between them with Estefani Almeida earning seven of them. On her debut, she somehow lost a split decision to Borella who has since been cut losing four in a row. So, she was the heavy underdog when she took on Molly McCann back in July, but she looked exceptional. She dominated her on the feet and took her down five times earning a dominant decision.
PREDICTION
Preparations for both ladies have been far from ideal so hopefully their weight cuts go smoothly. Robertson is a similar opponent to De La Rosa, but Santos still has not had much time to prepare.
Lee is also well-rounded like Santos and Robertson’s game plan is unlikely to change. She will try and take Santos down, control her on the mat and look for a submission. So, this is likely to depend on the Brazilian’s takedown defence.
If she can stuff the majority of Robertson’s takedowns or pose enough of a submission threat in the scrambles, she can control the fight and earn a decision with her output on the feet. However, besides Robertson’s early knockout loss to Maycee Barber, she has succeeded in taking down all her opponents in the UFC.
This should be a very close fight and the longer it stays on the feet, the more chance Santos’s has in winning but if Robertson can take her down, she has the top game to control her long enough to steal the rounds or even a notch her seventh career submission.
Prediction: Robertson via Decision
MARCIN TYBURA VS GREG HARDY
After losing four in five including three knockouts, Marcin Tybura (20-6) is experiencing a slight resurgence winning three unanimous decisions in a row. After consecutive knockout losses to Shamil Abdurakhimov and Augusto Sakai, Tybura bounced back with wins over Sergey Spivak, Maxim Grishin and Ben Rothwell marking a very successful year and he would love nothing more than to to make it 4-0 for 2020.
Greg Hardy (7-2(1)) is still keeping as active as ever making his third outing of the year after five appearances last year. At the end of 2019 he stepped up on short notice to take on Alexander Volkov which was very bold as the Russian is a class above in every area. He went on to lose but put up a great fight, taking him to a decision. He returned to earn his own unanimous decision over Yorgan de Castro and is coming of a TKO win over Maurice Greene.
PREDICTION
Tybura has the superior technique in every area. He is the better striker and is a different class on the ground as a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. However, Hardy has that explosive power that can nullify any technique.
The former NFL defensive end is evolving at some speed, but he needs to stick to his strengths and rely on his raw power and athleticism and go for the knockout. He just needs to land once to drop Tybura and get a finish.
That said, we back the momentum and experience of Tybura to leverage his technique to slow the fight down, make it ugly and grind out a decision.
Prediction: Tybura via Decision
ANTHONY PETTIS VS ALEX MORONO
The former UFC and WEC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis (23-10) is back at welterweight again after his glamour fight and unanimous decision win over Donald Cerrone. That win made it 10-9 in the UFC fighting a who’s who’ of killers and former champions but he is still prepared to take on lesser-known names as he continues to float between divisions.
Alex Morono (18-6) does not have the same name-power as most of Pettis’ opponents but he is very dangerous and experienced which makes this an odd fight for Pettis to take. He is 7-3(1) in the UFC and is also coming off a dominant win earning a unanimous decision over Rhys McKee. This was in response to that brutal knockout loss dished out by Khaos Williams snapping an impressive three-fight win streak.
PREDICTION
This is a great fight to kick-off the main card. Morono has everything to gain with a win over Pettis and It could kickstart a great run in the division. He is the underdog, but he has all the tools to win. Pettis has much more valuable experience but he has taken a lot of damage in recent fights and a loss could push him into ‘gatekeeper’ status.
We should expect a fast-paced battle on the feet and Morono has the power to cause a lot of problems. However, despite Pettis being past his prime, his technique has not gone and he has more weapons to get the win.
He should win the stand-up battle over the course of three rounds and also has a superior ground game to call upon if needed.
Prediction: Pettis via Decision
KARL ROBERSON VS DALCHA LUNGIAMBULA
COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc with Karl Roberson (9-3) getting struck down just before UFC 256. Fortunately, the fight has only been moved a week later for UFC Vegas 17 to beef up the prelims even further. Roberson was thrown right in the deep end fighting Ryan Spann on the Contender Series in just his fifth professional fight. He knocked him out displaying his potential but has gone 4-3 in the UFC. However, two of those losses were to top light heavyweight contender Glover Teixeira and top middleweight contender Marvin Vettori who handed him his third submission loss back in June.
Dalcha Lungiambula (10-2) drops down to middleweight after getting his six-fight win streak spectacularly snapped. He ran into the path of elite striker Magomed Ankalaev over a year ago and the Russian unleashed a beautiful front kick to hand him his first knockout loss.
PREDICTION
Roberson was very unwell leading up to his last fight with Vettori which forced their first scheduling to be postponed after his weight cut. He attempts to cut down to 185 lbs again so let’s hope he has a healthy cut and the same goes for Lungiambula who makes the cut from 205 lbs for the first time in the UFC.
If they are both energized and in good shape, we will see a very intense scrap with both fighters looking for a finish on the feet. They are both explosive strikers and a knockout could fall either way.
Roberson does not have to worry about the submission threat here and if his preparations have gone smoothly, we expect him to put on a great performance with him to be hell-bent in putting this bad year behind him with a good win.
Prediction: Roberson via KO/TKO
SIJARA EUBANKS VS PANNIE KIANZAD
Sijara Eubanks (6-5) makes her fourth appearance of the year and hopes to bounce back from her unanimous decision loss to Ketlen Vieira on Fight Island. The odds were stacked against her fighting twice that month. She had Macy Chiasson and Karol Rosa both pull out of a fight at the start of the month and ended up fighting Julia Avila picking up a great decision win. Vieira was then left without an opponent two weeks later and Eubanks stepped up but Vieira is a beast in the division and outpointed Eubanks in the end but she showed a lot of character to take that fight.
Pannie Kianzad (13-5) steps out for the second time this year and is coming off the two best wins of her career. Bouncing back from a unanimous decision loss to Avila in July last year, she notched two unanimous decisions of her own over Jessica-Rose Clark and Bethe Correia.
PREDICTION
Kianzad is another bantamweight that will have the size and power advantage over Eubanks. The route to victory for Kianzad is to use her weight advantage by tying Eubanks up in the clinch and taking her down and maintaining enough control to steal the rounds.
However, Eubanks has very underrated jiu-jitsu and will be a threat off her back. She is also the better boxer so if she can keep the fight standing, she will win the exchanges and steal the rounds herself.
Kianzad is still expected to get her hands on Eubanks but she will not be able to submit her. She will need to take her down early in each round to earn a decision, but Eubanks should hold her own in the clinch, defend the takedown and snatch a decision with more significant strikes on the feet.
Prediction: Eubanks via Decision
DERON WINN VS ANTONIO ARROYO
Deron Winn (6-2) is back after serving his nine month ban for taking amphetamines which he tested positive for after his loss to Gerald Meerschaert. They did not help him as he got submitted in the third round. He is unfamiliar territory now losing his first two fights in a row with the first being a split decision to Darren Stewart.
At this point, Antonio Arroyo (13-2) just wants to get in that APEX cage and throw down after numerous bouts falling through. He was scheduled to fight Andreas Michailidis but Eryk Anders had to fill in, only to to pull out after weighing in, cancelling another bout for Arroyo. The Brazilian has stayed ready and now steps in for Antonio Braga Neto hoping to redeem himself for his UFC debut loss to Andre Muniz over a year ago.
PREDICTION
There is no doubting Winn’s talent as a decorated wrestler, but the man just needs to go on a diet to be a threat at welterweight. Instead, he struggles to make the 185 lb mark at 5’6”. He is completely undersized for the middleweight division and despite his wrestling pedigree, there is only so far he can go and Arroyo could be another fighter to exploit that.
Arroyo is a very strong and explosive striker who will boast a seven-inch height and three-inch reach advantage and the fact that this is a catchweight bout at 195 lbs will suit him even more. He got outgrappled in his last fight, but Muniz is also a strong middleweight and is not only a very strong grappler like Winn, but he is also a high level black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
We expect Winn to strike to begin with but shoot in for the takedown as soon as he spots an opportunity. However, Arroyo has the power and athleticism to defend the takedown and if he can create enough space, he will chop Winn down with heavy leg kicks and keep overwhelming him with powerful strikes to seal a decision or late finish.
Prediction: Arroyo via KO/TKO
JIMMY FLICK VS CODY DURDEN
These two flyweights have a new date after their original scheduled fight was scrapped two weeks ago just before UFC Vegas 16 as Cody Durden had conjunctivitis and thankfully not COVID-19.
Jimmy Flick (15-5) gets the call-up after his successful showing on the Contender Series. He met Nate Smith in September off the back of two impressive submissions over Jesse Bazzi (Freestyle Cage Fighting) and Greg Fischer (Legacy Fighting Alliance) and made it three subs in a row with a beautiful arm-triangle.
Durden (11-2-1) is coming off a draw on his UFC debut. He was riding an extremely impressive seven-fight win streak finishing every fight (four knockouts and three submissions) so was given a tough debut. He was paired with Chris Gutierrez who was coming off three impressive UFC wins in a row and they fought to a draw in a quality scrap.
PREDICTION
Durden drops down to flyweight which is very interesting especially as the division is really hotting up now. On paper, this is a very exciting contest. Both fighters bring a furious pace and always look for the finish especially on the ground with their grappling prowess.
Flick makes his UFC debut, but he is an established flyweight fighting good competition. Durden looked exceptional in the early stages of his fight with Gutierrez and if the weight cut goes well, he will be very dangerous and 125 lbs.
This fight should have a mix of everything, and it is very tough to call but we give Flick the nod to earn a decision.