UFC Fight Island 5 - Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Island 5? Saturday 10th October, 2020 - 23:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Island 5? Flash Forum, Fight Island, Abu Dhabi (UAE)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Island 5? No tickets are available as this event will take place without spectators
What channel is UFC Fight Island 5 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC Fight Island 5? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
MARLON MORAES VS CORY SANDHAGEN
‘Magic’ Marlon Moraes makes his first outing since his biggest career win over Jose Aldo back in December last year. It was a split decision that could have gone either way but that win over the former featherweight king has kept his bantamweight title dreams alive. After a ruthless four-fight win streak, he took on Henry Cejudo for the vacant title, started very strong but as his gas tank emptied, Cejudo capitalised and ended handing him his first TKO loss in 11 years.
Cory ‘The Sandman’ Sandhagen flew in under the bantamweight radar for a while but it was only after he earned decisions over John Lineker and Raphael Assuncao last year that people began to take notice. The UFC were clearly fully aware of his talents as they handed him Aljamian Sterling but the UFC vet snapped his seven-fight win streak with a flawless performance and first round submission which will be a valuable learning curve for Sandhagen.
PREDICTION
If Moraes can keep up his first/second-round pace, he can get past anybody but that is easier said than done when you are so explosive. What he has to do is measure his attacks to remain dangerous for five rounds if he wants to be a champion especially as Sandhagen will bring a fast and consistent pace until the bell.
Sandhagen does not have the knockout power of Moraes but he can wear him down with a variety of precise strikes from either stance and he will be able to cover the range well with his extra three inches of reach and five in height.
This is a great style against Moraes who uses his power and technique so clinically to finish the fight whether that is on the feet or the floor. The Brazilian can easily find a knockout and if he can knock him to the ground, a submission is also there.
Sandhagen will only get stronger as the rounds go on while wearing Moraes down with a high output and if he can get out the first couple rounds like Cejudo did, a decision or late finish is there for him. However, Moraes made some good adjustments for the Aldo fight and if he paces himself well enough, he can pick up a win in any method.
Prediction: Moraes via KO/TKO
EDSON BARBOZA VS MAKWAN AMIRKHANI
Some of Edson Barboza’s talents are unmatched but his heart to fight anybody has created a large dent on his record lately losing five of his last six fights. He has fought absolute killers in the lightweight division with some great wins, but he has not had that feeling in a while. He lost to wrestlers Khabib Nurmagomedov and Kevin Lee before brutalising top contender Dan Hooker but has gone on to get knocked out by Justin Gaethje and narrowly miss out on a decision in his rematch with Paul Felder. This led to him trying his hand down at featherweight and took on Dan Ige but was robbed in another split decision.
Makwan Amirkhani is his next featherweight test and what a stern test it is. He is 6-2 in the UFC with losses to Arnold Allen and Shane Burgos but when he has won, he has looked exceptional. He responded to his split decision loss to Allen with a split decision of his own against Jason Knight and then submitted Chris Fishgold. He got finished by Shane Burgos but is now coming off the 11th submission win of his career with a first-round anaconda choke over Danny Henry.
PREDICTION
These guys are very well-rounded, but their strengths are so potent that it will create more of a striker vs grappler contest. Barboza’s striking is on a different level to most fighters and his kicking game is arguably the best in the UFC. Amirkhani’s ground skills are as slick as they come so the obvious game plan for him is to get the Brazilian down to the mat and avoid his weapons.
If Amirkhani can get Barboza down he is in trouble, but the Brazilian’s takedown defence is phenomenal. It is 80% in the UFC, but he has grappled with the likes of Lee and Nurmagomedov who is the best MMA wrestler of all time. He lost those fights, but years of experience in defending the takedown and that time in the cage against more powerful fighters than Amirkhani put him in good stead to keep the fight on the feet.
If Barboza can keep the fight on the feet for any length of time he churn Amirkhani up like a wood chipper and with his leg kicks and his extra power may help him secure a late finish.
Prediction: Barboza via KO/TKO
BEN ROTHWELL VS MARCIN TYBURA
‘Big’ Ben Rothwell has found a groove again after winning his last two fights. He will never find that juicy form we saw before his drugs ban which saw him knock out Brandon Vera, Alistair Overeem and then submit Matt Mitrione and Josh Barnett but he is on the way up after three straight losses and time off. He managed to walk away with a knockout over Stefan Struve when he was losing the fight and is coming off a hard-fought split decision over Ovince Saint Preux giving him an unwelcome introduction to the division.
Marcin Tybura is another man who has been very inconsistent in the cage. He had a spell losing four in five fights including a decision against Fabricio Werdum and knockouts courtesy of Derrick Lewis, Shamil Abdurakhimov and Augusto Sakai failing to establish himself at the top of the division. However, he is also coming off two much-need wins earning unanimous decisions over Sergey Spivak and Maxim Grishin.
PREDICTION
These large lads have a similar frame and identical reach, but Rothwell will have a weight advantage which he is likely to use in the clinch to wear Tybura down. The problem is, Tybura also enjoys this tactic and if they decide to tie up we could see an uneventful and boring clinch contest against the cage.
Let’s hope they create some space between them and let their hands go but this is likely to be a slow-paced decision that can go either way.
Prediction: Rothwell via Decision
MARKUS PEREZ VS DRICUS DU PLESSIS
After arriving to the UFC unbeaten and fresh off a submission over Ian Heinisch for LFA, Markus Perez has gone on to lose one, win one in all his UFC fights so far taking his record to 12-3. Both his wins were submissions over James Bochnovic and Anthony Hernandez and all his losses were unanimous decisions to Eryk Anders, Andrew Sanchez and then Wellington Turman in his last fight back in November last year.
Dricus Du Plessis makes his long-awaited UFC debut filling in for Rodolfo Vieira and sits proudly on a record of 14-2. He is the former EFC and KSW middleweight champion with his only losses being title fights. He has cleaned up on the African (EFC) and Polish (KSW) scene finishing all of his wins (five knockouts and nine submissions) and he would love nothing more to start his UFC career with another.
PREDICTION
The South African has never been involved in a decision and if he wants to continue that trend with a win, he will have to hand Perez the first knockout or submission of his career.
Even though Du Plessis is only 26 years old, he has amassed a lot of experience and had his first title fight at just 20 years old. Despite the losses, Perez’ UFC experience will be priceless and this is set up to be a great fight.
Du Plessis has all the tools, started out with judo at just five-years old and then kickboxing 10 years later. He is a weapon with phenomenal jiu-jitsu and Muay Thai added to his repertoire and he will no doubt look for the finish against Perez.
Perez’s confidence will be crucial as if he allows Du Plessis to conduct the pace, it will be a long night. He has to be aggressive and keep the fight standing to unleash his own Muay Thai. If the fight goes to the floor, it will be a competitive scramble.
Wherever this goes, it should be a spectacle, but the damage will be done on the feet first and if Du Plessis can put that three-inch reach advantage to use, he could walk away with a dream debut.
Prediction: Du Plessis via KO/TKO
TOM ASPINALL VS ALAN BAUDOT
One on Britain’s brightest prospects, and Darren Till’s training partner, Tom Aspinall (8-2) heads back to Fight Island for his second UFC appearance. He got his UFC career off to a perfect start, dispatching Jake Collier in the first round and then had Sergey Spivak lined-up next but unfortunately, he has had to pull out. Aspinall is undeterred as he just wants to rack up the bodies to make it five wins and five knockouts in a row.
Spivak dropping out has given the Frenchman, Alan Baudot (8-1) the opportunity to make his debut who also carries some hype but in the light heavyweight division. The only loss on his record came in a title fight for EFC against Dalcha Lungiambula where they traded wild shots from the bell but Baudot was the one that got caught clean. He bounced back with a knockout over Yuto Nakajima and then got submitted by Todd Stoute but it was later overturned to a disqualification and win for Baudot.
PREDICTION
Baudot has a lot of potential but more so in the division below. Aspinall is a genuine heavyweight standing at 6’5” and 250 lbs but also moves like a light heavyweight. He looks like the real deal and Tyson Fury picked him out to spar for a reason. He is great on the feet from a boxing and Muay Thai background with one-punch knockout power but what separates him from most up and coming heavyweights is that he can also grapple as a strong wrestler and black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Baudot is dangerous but if Aspinall can avoid getting caught on the chin, he has too much size and power for the Frenchman and the technique to get a knockout or submission.
Prediction: Aspinall via KO/TKO
YOUSSEF ZALAL VS ILIA TOPURIA
Youseff Zalal makes his fourth outing of 2020 and is hoping to make it four wins out of four in the UFC. The 24-year-old’s only two losses came in 2019 for LFA but has responded with four wins. He ended Jaime Hernandez with a flying knee for LFA and proceeded to pick off Austin Lingo, Jordan Griffin and Peter Barrett with unanimous decisions.
He takes on the unbeaten debutant, Ilia Topuria who has snatched the opportunity after Seung Woo Choi had to pull out. The submission ace has choked out seven of his eight victims and is coming off the first knockout of his career finishing Stephen Goncalves in the first round for Brave CF.
PREDICTION
This is far from a striker vs grappler match-up despite what it looks like on paper as they are both very well-rounded. Topuria is clearly an animal on the mat with lightening quick guillotines but his hands are also improving and Zalal has to respect that. The same can be said for Zalal’s ground game which is already at a high-level.
All in all, this fight will be thrilling wherever it goes, and we could see a bit of everything. A tangle on the ground will be a fascinating contest but if the majority of the fight takes place on the feet, the Moroccan will use his dynamism and technique, switching stances, continuously offloading to sway the judges but anything can happen here.
Prediction: Zalal via Decision
TOM BREESE VS KB BHULLAR
One of the unluckiest men in the game, Tom Breese has been riddled with injury for his entire UFC career which has seen him only make the walk to the octagon six times in five years. Fortunately, he has been able to get some grappling matches under the belt, but he has so much potential in MMA and time is slipping away to fulfil that. He won his first three UFC fights before losing a split decision to Sean Strickland in 2016. He returned in 2018 up at middleweight and turned back the clock with a brilliant first round knockout over veteran Dan Kelly. He then was forced out for two more years but returned against a beastly Brendan Allen who got the first round TKO to peg his record back to 11-2.
He takes on KB Bhullar who got the call-up on short notice to take on Breese but has had to wait a little longer to make his UFC debut. They were scheduled to fight last week on the Fight Island 4/UFC on ESPN 16 card but it was rescheduled. Bhullar cannot wait to make his debut and sits proudly on an unbeaten record of 8-0 coming off four wins for his local promotion in Edmonton, Canada – Unified MMA.
PREDICTION
Breese has fought most his career at welterweight, but middleweight is his more natural weight class now. Him and Bhullar are very rangy standing at 6’3” and 6’4” respectively and this will be an exciting scrap.
This really depends on where Breese is at mentally and physically. He has the experience and has all the skills on the mat and on the feet so if his training and preparations have gone smoothly you have to back him for a win and potentially a finish. The money is with Bhullar as the underdog, but he will have his hands full if Breese is on point.
Prediction: Breese via KO/TKO
CHRIS DAUKAUS VS RODRIGO NASCIMENTO
Fresh off his triumphant UFC debut, Chris Daukaus (9-3) returns for his second fight of the year. He took on Parker Porter and put on a beating finishing him in the first round to notch his eighth knockout from his nine wins.
Rodrigo Nascimento (8-0) is also fresh off his debut win in the UFC making his second appearance of the year. After four submissions is a row including an arm-triangle over Michal Martinek on Dana White’s Contender Series, Nascimento made it five choking Don’Tale Mayes back in May.
PREDICTION
Daukaus will no doubt hunt the knockout as he has great hands and Nascimento will be aware of how heavy they are so his game plan is likely to remain the same and that is to throw some shots but ultimately get Daukaus down and look for the submission.
However, the sooner the Brazilian can get the takedown the better. He has the ability to get the knockout himself but his easiest route to victory is the submission.
Prediction: Nascimento via Submission
IMPA KASANGANAY VS JOAQUIN BUCKLEY
Impa Kasanganay (8-0) fills in for Abu Azaitar looking to build more momentum and continue his unbeaten streak. We first saw him on Dana White’s Contender Series earning a unanimous decision over Kailan Hill in 2019. He returned a year later on the series earning another unanimous decision over Anthony Adams which gave him an opportunity two weeks later at UFC Fight Night 175 where he continued the UD run against Maki Pitolo.
Joaquin Buckley (10-3) also made his debut in August, but it did not go to plan. He met Kevin Holland who eventually finished Buckley in the third round, but he gave a great account of himself against the established middleweight.
PREDICTION
Buckley proved how game he is against Holland which was an incredibly tough debut. Both men are physical specimens and shape-up very similarly with Kasanganay only boasting one inch in height and reach.
That will not make a difference but what will is Kasangany’s grappling. He is a solid striker but knows he cannot afford to trade with Buckley for too long so expected to subdue him and wear him down for three rounds.
Prediction: Kasanganay via Decision
ALI ALQAISI VS TONY KELLEY
Ali AlQaisi (8-4) heads to Fight Island to make amends for his debut loss back in August. Riding a healthy five-fight win streak including three submissions and two unanimous decisions fighting under the Phoenix FC and Brave CF banners, AlQaisi stepped up for his UFC debut against Irwin Rivera but narrowly missed out losing a split decision.
He takes on Tony Kelley (6-2) who also suffered a debut loss back in August. He took on Kai Kamaka at UFC 252 and lost a unanimous decision, but it was one hell of a battle. His previous loss came in 2016 for LFC but that was a close split decision to Kevin Aguilar who has now established himself in the UFC. He returned three years later wrapping up a guillotine on Andy Brossett but really needs another win to gain some momentum.
PREDICTION
Neither fighter poses much of a knockout threat and they both have solid submission games, so a decision is very likely here. So, this will come down to their striking where based on their lasts fights, we should see a closely contested scrap.
However, Kelley looks smoother on his feet with great defence and head movement which may force AlQaisi to shoot in for takedowns. He also has more techniques in the locker switching up his stance with good kicks and is expected to land more to seal the decision.
Prediction: Kelley via Decision
GIGA CHIKADZE VS OMAR MORALES
Giga Chikadze (10-2) is riding a five-fight winning streak and is looking forward to fighting someone he has actually trained for. He made his debut a year ago earning a hard-fought split decision over Brandon Davis who stepped up on short notice replacing Mike Davis. The Georgian went on to earn another split decision over Jamall Emmers and was scheduled to fight Mike Davis again, but another drop out led to him fighting Irwin Rivera earning a more convincing decision. The UFC then lined up Alex Caceres in August but Chikadze then dropped out catching COVID-19.
Omar Morales (10-0) flies to Fight Island with a pop in his step as he makes his second outing of the year. The Venezuelan has won his first two UFC fights extending his unbeaten record. He earnt earnt a unanimous decision over Dong Hyun Ma in December last year and bagged the points again in May against Gabriel Benitez.
PREDICTION
This is a great fight tucked into the prelims. They are both well-round and rangy featherweights and this should be an exciting stand-up battle with heaps of technique on show.
Expect Chikadze to try and keep Morales at the end of his range with kicks whereas Morales will try and get close enough to throw his thunderous leg kicks and hunt the jaw with his right hand.
This fight will be close, but we are backing Morales who just has more strings to his bow and finishing ability. He will do well to land clean on Chikadze who has great defence, but he should land enough damage to get the job done.
Prediction: Morales via Decision
TRACY CORTEZ VS STEPHANIE EGGER
It’s great to see Tracy Cortez (7-1) back as the 26-year-old has a lot of potential and the bantamweight division desperately needs some new talent coming through. We first saw her on Dana White’s Contender Series outpointing a much lighter Mariya Agapova and her last outing was nearly a year ago where she picked up another unanimous decision over Vanessa Melo to make it seven wins in a row. This was her UFC and bantamweight debut after fighting her whole career at flyweight.
She was originally scheduled to fight Bea Malecki but the Swede has had to withdraw giving Stephanie Egger (5-1) the opportunity to make her debut. She is completely unproven at this level, but she is an exciting fighter finishing all but one of her wins. She is coming off a TKO over Eeva Siiskonen, a unanimous decision over Reina Miura and a submission over Cinja Kiefer a month ago but the rest of her fights have spanned over five years.
PREDICTION
Egger has less pressure making her debut and will be the longer fighter, but Cortez will be the favourite here. She is expected to call upon her grappling to tie Egger up on the ground and look for a submission. Egger is a good grappler herself and her judo skills will not make it easy for Cortez, but she is expected to get three rounds in the bank and potentially a submission.
Prediction: Cortez via Submission
BRUNO SILVA VS TAGIR ULANBEKOV
Bruno Silva (10-4-2 (1)) is still without a UFC win after two tough fights and it does not get any easier for the Brazilian. He made his debut in October last year against Khalid Taha, but he received a taste of his own medicine getting submitted in the third round. Although, this was later overturned to a ‘no contest’ as Taha failed a drugs test which turns out, was a banned substance called furosemide within some anti-inflammatory medicine. Silva then met likely future title contender David Dvorak in March losing a unanimous decision.
He takes on the flyweight prospect Tagir Ulanbekov (10-1) who makes his UFC debut. The Russian has had to wait a little longer as this was originally scheduled last month at UFC Vegas 10, but travel restrictions related to COVID-19 have forced this on to Fight Island. Ulanbekov has won his last three fights which were for the Gorilla Fighting Championship boosting his submission tally up to five.
PREDICTION
Ulanbekov is a submission specialist and although Silva got submitted in his last bout, he is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. If Ulanbekov can sap all the energy out of him, another submission may be possible especially as the Russian is a training partner of Khabib Nurmagomedov so he will bring a furious pace to the cage.
Do not expect a knockout here but Ulanbekov could easily announce his arrival with a dominant grappling display and potential late submission.