UFC 249 during COVID-19 - Breakdown & Predictions

When is UFC 249? Sunday 10th May, 2020 - 01:00 start (UK)

Where is UFC 249? VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, Florida

What channel is UFC 249 on? BT Sport 1

Where can I stream UFC 249? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website

For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ which can you sign up to here!

Are tickets still available for UFC 249? https://www.ufc.com/tickets

Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje

UFC 249 has been a circus with Dana White battling with COVID-19 and the authorities to make an event. We don’t have a lightweight title fight with Khabib Nurmagomedov but we do have Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje headlining one of the deepest cards the UFC have ever put together.

You can call it brave or stupid, but Ferguson is risking everything for his long-awaited title shot. He is on the longest winning streak in lightweight history (12) and there isn’t a fighter who deserves this shot more yet he has accepted the challenge of Gaethje who is one of the biggest threats in the division. Let’s just hope ‘El Cucuy’ is getting paid handsomely for this.

The showstopper is back to his ruthless winning ways after suffering his first two losses to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier. He dispatched James Vick, Edson Barboza and Donald Cerrone which seemingly earnt him the ‘red panty night’ with Conor McGregor but this opportunity has arisen in the wildest of circumstances.

PREDICTION

Ferguson’s decision to finish his weight cut a couple PF weeks ago may be deemed as a ‘boss move’ but it makes no sense and can’t be healthy.

Ferguson will be the faviourite but with Gaethje’s skill set, he has every chance of stealing his number one contender spot. He has superb wrestling and vicious one-punch knockout power that can easily catch Ferguson in the scrambles. He also fights more cerebrally, conserving his energy. However, his best bet may be to throw caution to the wind and hunt an early knockout.

Ferguson’s cardio is arguably the best in the UFC and a fight-ready Ferguson is a different animal. His offence will be unpredictable with elbows, trips, rolls, submission attempts etc all at a relentless pace and the damage will build up and up. So, Gaethje has got to find the chin early which could force a brawl.

In a brawl anything could happen but Ferguson is often the last man standing in these circumstances.

Winner: Ferguson via KO/TKO

Henry Cejudo vs Dominick Cruz

The bantamweight title picture is about as chaotic as the current pandemic. Former featherweight Jose Aldo skipped the queue of contenders off the back of a loss and now Dominick Cruz emerges from the sidelines with the same fast-track pass.

The likes of Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling will feel hard done by but just thinking about how Cejudo matches up with former featherweight champion Aldo and the former bantamweight champion Cruz, and you can see why the UFC made these fights.

Cejudo has not fought for nearly a year but has garnered attention by calling people out and making cringy social media posts. That said, when your last three fights are wins over Demetrious Johnson, TJ Dillashaw and Marlon Moraes and you are a two-division champion, he can do what he wants.

A man of many achievements but no luck is his challenger. Cruz is the most dominant bantamweight champion of all time, but his career has been massacred by injuries. His last appearance was back in December 2016 which was his first loss since 2007. He got a taste of his own medicine and was outclassed and almost embarrassed by Cody Garbrandt but Cruz was suffering from plantar fasciitis at the time. His latest injury required surgery to his shoulder and he is back earlier than expected to walk straight into the coveted title shot against Cejudo.

PREDICTION

Cejudo has put on phenomenal performances to earn his two belts. He put Dillashaw away early but suffered a lot of adversity against Johnson and Moraes early in the fights and if he can show that same heart, he can easily rack up another huge name.

However, it all depends on what shape Cruz is in. He is so tough but who knows how healthy he actually is right now. If you compare these two over the last four years it looks like a complete mismatch and any physical weaknesses will be exposed by Cejudo.

However, if Cruz is anywhere near full fitness, he will use his movement and speed to exploit his height and reach advantage and dominate Cejudo on the feet just like Moraes did but actually keep it up for five rounds. Cruz has the tools and mentality to get his belt back, but it is tough to back against Cejudo right now. This is a toss-up.

Winner: Cruz via Decision

Francis Ngannou vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Two of the most dangerous strikers in the UFC lock horns as Francis Ngannou takes on Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

It is hard to argue that Ngannou is not the hardest hitting striker in the UFC and MMA. Despite two blips on the record where he was outclassed by Stipe Miocic which sapped his confidence for the Derrick Lewis fight, the Cameroonian has left a trail of heavyweight bodies and legends. He is on a three-fight streak, taking the scalps of Curtis Blaydes, Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos with a title shot within reach if Stipe Miocic and Daniel Cormier ever settle on their next fight.

Rozenstruik does not quite have the same calibre of names on the record as Ngannou but he has gone about business in the same way. Nine of his 10 wins has come via knockout and the last two names on the victim sheet are Andrei Arlovski and Alistair Overeem.

PREDICTION

This will be one of those encounters so intense that one touch of leather will lead to a head slamming off the canvas. Rozenstruik has the edge in technique as the accomplished kickboxer but Ngannou’s unholy power can neutralize any credential.

His fight with Lewis where he was too hesitant to pull the trigger will encourage him to fire in this one and although he has to respect the skills of the Suriname native, if he is aggressive and works on his defence, the first ‘L’ on Rozenstruik’s record will come in devastating fashion.

Winner: Ngannou via KO/TKO

Jeremy Stephens vs Calvin Kattar

UFC 249 is stacked from head to toe as veteran Jeremy Stephens and Calvin Kattar add extra spice with a technical tear-up.

Stephens is suffering his worst patch of form at the moment but when you have been slugging it out in the UFC for 13 years and frequently coming up against the cream of the crop, winning streaks are hard to come by. He was finished by the former champ Jose Aldo and then lost a decision to top prospect Zabit Magomedsharipov and Yair Rodriguez after their first clash was written off early due to an eye poke.

Kattar suffered the same fate against Magomedsharipov as he was handed his second UFC loss. However, if that fight was a five-rounder he could have easily derailed the Russian. Kattar has an engine on him but it is his boxing and power that makes him so threatening and if he wants to continue where he left off in dispatching Chris Fishgold and Ricardo Lamas we are going to have fireworks as few people relish a brawl as much as Stephens.

PREDICTION

Stephens is only a year younger than Kattar but he has a lot of miles on the clock which may easily take its toll if the fight spills out into a brawl. Either way this is going be a very gritty and violent stand-up war.

Both men are very durable, but their power will accumulate to potentially create a late finish. Whoever can land more with a consistent output will get the job done and Kattar gets the nod as we have not quite seen the best of him yet and this is a good match-up to illustrate his potential.

Winner: Kattar via KO/TKO

Greg Hardy vs Yorgan de Castro

After five fights in 2019, Greg Hardy looks to continue his momentum and takes on the rotund slugger from Cape Verde - Yorgan de Castro.

The controversial former NFL star is coming off his second loss but the most important fight of his career. He stepped up on late notice to fight Alexander Volkov who is in a different league to all of his opponents so far, but he hung in there for three rounds against the elite and long striker, which is a priceless learning curve.

De Castro has only had six pro fights but fought three times last year. His last outing was back in October and it was his UFC debut which he marked in spectacular fashion. He took on fellow heavy-hitter Justin Tafa in Australia and short circuited him with a devastating right hand.

PREDICTION

What both men lack in technical ability, they make up for in raw power. If either of them connect clean, one of them is getting put to sleep. Hardy has the athletic edge and is continuing to evolve drastically at American Top Team.

Do not be surprised if de Castro catches Hardy to extend his unbeaten record but Hardy has a fire under him as he pursues his new career and is expected to enter the octagon with more tools which may include getting de Castro to the ground and finishing him with strikes.