UFC Fight Night 168 - Auckland Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Night 168? Saturday 22nd February, 2020 - 22:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 168? Spark Arena, Auckland, New Zealand
What channel is UFC Fight Night 168 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 168? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ which can you sign up to here!
Are tickets still available for UFC Fight Night 168? https://www.ufc.com/tickets
Paul Felder vs Dan Hooker
The UFC heads to Auckland for the third time and is graced by a slobberknocker of a main event with Auckland’s own Dan ‘The Hangman’ Hooker hosting Paul ‘The Irish Dragon’ Felder.
Hooker fights on home soil for the first time since 2017 when he buried Ross Pearson with a knee and the Kiwi went on to finish a host of lightweight talents. He choked out Marc Diakiese and then knocked out Jim Miller and Gilbert Burns before meeting an absolute weapon in Edson Barboza, takong a three-round beating eventually finished with a body shot. However, Hooker bounced back immediately by knocking out James Vick and he is coming off a superb performance and unanimous decision win over Al Iaquinta.
Interestingly, Felder has danced with Barboza twice and is coming off a split decision win to avenge his loss back in 2015. He displayed his abundance of striking skills and that infamous toughness which has seen him only lose once in his last six. That was to Mike Perry but ‘The Irish Dragon’ fought to a split decision up at welterweight with a broken arm. Now he is coming off a unanimous decision over James Vick and that extremely close rematch with Barboza.
PREDICTION
This is a great match-up as both are savages on the feet with polished ground games and the pair always look for the finish. That said, their toughness could force this to a decision. They are both huge lightweights and Felder will have the strength advantage which we will see if they clinch up, but Hooker has the range.
Felder had two close fights with Barboza and just earned the decision in their rematch whereas Hooker got brutalised by the Brazilian. However, we know MMA maths doesn’t add up and this can go either way. What we do know, is that this will be a technical war.
If Felder can keep the fight at a close boxing range to be able to clinch up Hooker will be in trouble, but ‘The Hangman’ can continually hurt Felder if he pops in and out of range and strikes from a distance. With home advantage, Hooker just gets the nod, but this is a toss-up.
Winner: Hooker via Decision
Jimmy Crute vs Michel Oleksiejczuk
Jimmy Crute hops over to Auckland from Australia as he takes on Michal Oleksiejczuk from Poland with both fighters coming off rare losses.
Crute suffered the first loss of his career in his last fight after submitting Paul Craig and finishing Sam Alvey with a TKO. He took on the submission wrestling champion, Misha Cirkunov and it was a great fight, but he got caught with a fantastic Peruvian Neck Tie. Cirkunov showed his class but he had to work very hard for the win. It was a valuable lesson for the Aussie that will make him a better fighter.
Oleksiejczuk is also in unfamiliar territory after losing his first fight in 12 outings, to Ovince Saint Preux five months ago. His streak included nine knockouts but it succumbed to Saint Preux’s fourth Von Flue choke. Like Crute, this was a valuable lesson in making the step-up to the top tier of the division and he now hopes to continue where he left off in knocking out Gian Villante and Gadzhimurad Antigulov before the loss.
PREDICTION
These youngsters are explosive finishers and rarely reach decisions. Crute will be most threatening on the ground as a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu complimented by his ground-and-pound whereas Oleksiejczuk will look to keep the fight on the feet as he has a kiss of death in his hands. He has one-punch knockout power and can easily catch Crute early, but the Aussie is expected to wear Oleksiejczuk down with his grappling to set up a late finish.
Winner: Crute via Submission
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Yan Xiaonan
Karolina Kowalkiewicz is desperate to prevent losing four times in a row but her fights don’t get any easier as Yan Xiaonan flies over to New Zealand smelling blood.
Before Kowalkwiewicz’ title fight with Joanna Jedrzejczyk back in 2016 she was unbeaten, but crossing paths with the best strawweights in the world has led her to go 2-5 since. She lost that title fight and then went on to get submitted by Claudia Gadelha. After out-pointing Jodie Esquibel and Felice Herrig, she received one of the biggest strawweight knockouts we have ever seen from Jessica Andrade and then went on to lose two decisions to Michelle Waterson and Alexa Grasso.
The UFC matchmakers have not been kind as Kowalkiewicz has been assigned another very dangerous fighter in the shape of Xiaonan. She has not fought the same level of competition, but she is unbeaten in her last 10 fights and has cruised past Kailin Curran, Viviane Pereira, Syuri Kondo and Angela Hill with unanimous decisions.
PREDICTION
Kowalkiewicz is under heaps of pressure. A fourth loss in a row could be terminal to her UFC career and she is fighting a beast who is also a very talented striker. So, this should be a very attritional and technical battle on the feet with both fighters looking to prove they are the better striker. Xiaonan is more explosive but Kowalkiewicz' experience will be crucial in pacing herself and finishing strong to steal the rounds, although a decision could fall either way.
Winner: Kowalkiewicz via Decision
Ben Sosoli vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Marcos Rogerio de Lima is back in action after a year and takes on ‘The Combat Wombat’ Ben Sosoli who is looking for a result after two ‘no contests’.
Sosoli’s first ‘no contest’ occurred when he got a shot on Dana White’s Contender Series. He took on Dustin Joynson but after an accidental eye poke in the first round, Joynson could not continue. A huge anti-climax for Sosoli but a couple months later he got a dream opportunity to fight Greg Hardy, filling in for Jarjis Danho. He took Hardy to a decision for the first time in his career but lost with a unanimous verdict. However, Hardy inexplicably used an inhaler in between rounds - which is illegal - meaning the win had to be overturned.
De Lima appears for the first time since his submission loss to Struve. De Lima has had an ‘up and down’ time of it in the UFC and that is not just switching between heavyweight and light heavyweight. After winning his first two UFC fights, he has consecutively lost and won so he is hoping that sequence continues and he bounces back with another win, at least for this fight.
PREDICTION
The Brazilian will be thankful his counterpart will be willing to stand and trade as opposed to grapple their way to a submission. This should be a tense battle and with their power a knockout could come in any round.
Sosoli has great hand speed and power but De Lima has the experience. He is a lot more comfortable and explosive at heavyweight and if he fights with relative caution and watches out for Sosoli’s overhand right he should be able to wait for openings and exploit them, with Sosoli’s chin pushing this to the bell.
Winner: De Lima via Decision
Magomed Mustafaev vs Brad Riddell
Brad Riddell gets his hometown bout for his second UFC fight but has a tremendously tough assignment in the shape of Magomed Mustafaev.
After suffering the first loss of his career back in 2016, to Kevin Lee via a rear-naked choke, Mustafaev took some time off but blitzed his way back into action in April last year. The Russian made up for lost time by dispatching Rafael Fiziev in the first round with a spinning back kick.
Riddell made his UFC debut in October last year in Australia on the UFC 243 card. He extended his winning streak to four by earning a unanimous decision over Jamie Mullarkey. It was a good fight that ended with a thrilling round and Riddell is hoping to continue the punishment in front of his home fans.
PREDICTION
This should be a striking battle of utter class. Riddell dominated his local kickboxing scene and Mustafaev proved he is still a beast despite the time off with that spinning back kick.
Take Riddell’s fight stats with a pinch of salt as they are only based on his fight with Mullarkey. That said, he will be one of the best strikers Mustafaev has faced. If he can keep the fight standing he has a good chance but Mustafaev is an absolute weapon who has finished all of his wins and will be most dangerous in the first round as his cardio is his only question mark. If Riddell can avoid any early damage, he has the stamina to deliver more output and more damage in the final two rounds.
Winner: Riddell via Decision
Kevin Aguilar vs Zubaira Tukhugov
A featherweight scrap kicks off the main card in Auckland featuring Kevin Aguilar and Zubaira Tukhugov.
Aguilar is coming off the second loss of his career after Dan Ige broke his nine-fight winning streak with a unanimous decision which came after Aguilar’s first two UFC appearances. He won those by earning his own unanimous decisions against Rick Glenn and Enrique Barzola.
Tukhugov was riding his own nine-fight winning streak which included three UFC wins over Douglas Silva de Andrade, Ernest Chavez and Phillipe Nover but he then met Renatio Moicano where he lost a tight split decision. He then got popped for a banned substance and was suspended for two years and, after his part in the post-fight melee between Conor McGregor and his training partner Khabib Nurmagomedov, Tukhugov did not return until September last year. He took on Lerone Murphy and fought to a draw.
PREDICTION
Tukhugov landed an early knockdown and six takedowns over the course of the fight but he ran out of gas which left the door open for Murphy to get back into the fight. If his cardio has improved, he has the grappling prowess to control Aguilar for three rounds.
That said, the Russian is well-rounded and will back his striking, but this is exactly what Aguilar wants. He will want to keep the fight standing and put his knockout power to use. Tukhugov has a good chin and if he can keep up a pace for three rounds, his wrestling should be enough to steal the decision.
Winner: Tukhugov via Decision
Striking and grappling stats sourced via FightMetric.