UFC Vegas 14 - Full Card Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 14? Saturday 14th November, 2020 - 22:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 14? UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 14? No tickets are available as this event will take place without spectators
What channel is UFC Vegas 14 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 14? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
PAUL FELDER VS RAFAEL DOS ANJOS
If we needed any more reasons to appreciate Paul Felder (17-5), ‘The Irish Dragon’ puts down the headset and steps up on five days’ notice to replace Islam Makhachev saving the UFC Vegas 14 card. Dana White will be more grateful than anyone as this weak card now has a mouth-watering main event. Felder is coming off his war with Dan Hooker where he flew to New Zealand and took the Kiwi to a split decision. The fight was exactly what was prescribed but unlike his battle and rematch with Edson Barboza, he just fell on the wrong side of a decision but both fights could have gone either way.
Rafael dos Anjos (29-13) has still got a fight and it is a much more compelling one for him. His last five fights have all been against strong wrestlers getting out grappled to unanimous decisions in four of them. Colby Covington and Kamaru ragdolled him but he went on to pull off a phenomenal arm-triangle on Kevin Lee. He then succumbed to Leon Edwards and Michael Chiesa who proceeded to grind out decisions.
PREDICTION
So, dos Anjos now has a completely different match-up. Instead of preparing for another wrestler in Makhachev who in all likelihood would have wrestled his way to a decision, the Brazilian has a battle-hardened weapon who is going to stand in front of him and throw down.
Dos Anjos drops down to lightweight for the first time since his title fight with Eddie Alvarez back in 2016 but he has had a lot of time to make weight. Felder on the other hand is a huge 155’er and it would usually be impossible to make weight in five days.
However, he has been training for a triathlon so is in great shape and a lot leaner than usual but will surely still have a lot of weight to cut. They both have a 70-inch reach, but Felder will have three inches in height over dos Anjos and should even have a slight power advantage if the cut goes smoothly.
Felder has a dangerous clinch and ground game and although dos Anjos is a high-level black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, he has been out muscled by more powerful wrestlers. In all likelihood this fight is going to be technical striking battle with heavy exchanges and a lot of leg kicks from both men.
You would back a fully prepped Felder in a stand-up contest but with just five days to prepare against an established welterweight and former lightweight champion, the odds are stacked against him. As the fight is still five rounds, their conditioning will be a big factor. Felder is in great nick but dos Anjos is conditioned for a five-round fight. He also has not been finished since the Alvarez fight, so, expect Felder to come out strong hunting the chin on the feet.
As the fight goes on and they begin to tire we could see takedown and clinch attempts from either man. Dos Anjos is the better all round grappler but Felder's ground game is very underrated and if he can assume top control he can put dos Anjos in a world of trouble keeping all his weight on in him while raining down brutal ground-and-pound. The Brazilian is too good to get submitted but Felder’s heavy top game could earn him the rounds piling on the damage.
Despite beginning to accept retirement, Felder has the skills and heart to earn an incredible win but dos Anjos’ preparations physically and mentally swing this in his favour.
Prediction: Dos Anjos via Decision
ABDUL RAZAK ALHASSAN VS KHAOS WILLIAMS
The knockout machine, Abdul Razak Alhassan (10-2) returns after a miserable showing back in July. He made his first appearance in over two years but missed weight and then got outclassed on the feet by UFC newcomer, Mounir Lazzez who earned the unanimous decision. This broke his streak of three first-round knockouts, and he will no doubt be looking to start a new streak in the same fashion.
He takes on Khaos Williams (10-1) who is riding a seven-fight win streak and is coming off a dream start to his UFC career. He debuted against Alex Morono back in February and swarmed him from the bell. He must have had a train to catch as he put everything into getting the early knockout and succeeded.
PREDICTION
As impressive as Williams’ debut was, if he approaches Alhassan the same way, he will be leaving in an ambulance. He was reckless and left his head wide open and that is exactly what Alhassan wants. He is an explosive specimen and knows he only needs one connection between his leather and his opponents chin to put them to sleep.
In his two losses, he was out grappled by Omari Akhmedov and outclassed on the feet by Lazzez. Williams does not have the technique of Lazzez but he does have the range and if he can mix in short combinations with wrestling, he can set up a knockout blow or get Alhassan to the ground.
However, Williams’ tendency to square-up and rush into the pocket upright, leaving his chin exposed could spark an abrupt end to his streak.
Prediction: Alhassan via KO/TKO
JULIAN MARQUEZ VS SAPARBEK SAFAROV
Julian ‘The Cuban Missile Crisis’ Marquez (7-2) has been out for over two years and it is great to see him back. We last saw him in July of 2018 where he lost a razor thin split decision to Alessio Di Chirico which snapped his five-fight win streak. So, despite the talent, he has not won for nearly three years when he submitted Darren Stewart.
Saparbek Safarov (9-3) arrived to the UFC unbeaten finishing all of his victims. However, he has experienced to steep rise in competition of the UFC and is 1-3 in his four fights. He got knocked out by Gian Villante and then submitted by Tyson Pedro before earning a unanimous decision over Nicolae Negumereanu. He then decided to drop down to middleweight, but the UFC did not do him any favours in handing him the submission wizard, Rodolfo Vieira who wrapped him up in the first round.
PREDICTION
Marquez can wrestle and has submissions in the locker, but he will try and keep the fight on the feet and hunt the knockout. The Contender Series alum has been out for a while, but he is a big middleweight with knockout power, so he will not need much time to find his feet.
Safarov will be well aware of this and although he loves to strike banking on his own knockout power, he is better off calling upon his top tier wrestling and sambo. He has to get his hands on Marquez, tie him up and try and get him to the ground.
If Safarov tests his ego and decides to stand and trade with Marquez, he has every chance of toppling him especially if he has any ring rust but Marquez’ power should be the difference here as he only needs one clean crack of the chin.
Prediction: Marquez via KO/TKO
KAY HANSEN VS CORY MCKENNA
Kay Hansen (7-3) started her career fighting for Invicta and has hovered between strawweight and flyweight amassing some great experience. She has a lot of potential and got her UFC career up and running with the biggest win by submitting Jinh Yu Frey back in June. This stretched her streak to three after submitting Nicole Caliari and outpointing Liana Pirosin.
Another prospect from Wales, Cory McKenna (5-1) makes her debut with a fledgling record but turned professional after winning all seven of her amateur fights. Her sole loss came in her third fight, but it was a very close split decision with Micol DiSegni. She went on to finish her next two fights (all for Cage Warriors) to earn the opportunity on Dana White’s Contender Series three months ago and she bagged the unanimous decision over Crystal Demopoulos to get this spot on the big stage.
PREDICTION
Both ladies are 21 but are very experienced for their age. They have their promising careers ahead of them and they clash hoping an impressive win will fast-track them up the strawweight division.
Hansen has a five-inch reach advantage over McKenna, but she is likely to have a game plan of shooting in for the takedown early, maintaining position and setting up submission attempts. She is a very strong wrestler making her the heavy favourite, but McKenna is a good grappler herself and she will make it a very tough night for Hansen.
A decision for Hansen is most likely but do not be surprised if we see an upset with a submission. McKenna has great jiu-jitsu and her well-rounded skill sets are only getting sharper training at Team Alpha Male and with Olympian wrestler Sara McMann.
Prediction: Hansen via Decision
ERYK ANDERS VS ANTONIO ARROYO
Eryk Anders (13-5) fills in for Andreas Michailidis hoping to bounce back from his unanimous decision loss in May. He was gaining some much-needed momentum after losing three on the bounce by knocking out Vinicius Moreira and earning a tight decision over Gerald Meerschaert but Krzysztof Jotko stopped Anders in his tracks with a great performance.
UFC 247 could not have gone worse for Antonio Arroyo (9-3), falling ill on the day of weigh ins and he is looking to make up for it nine months later. This is not the start he was hoping for his UFC career after losing his debut to Andre Muniz and he is desperate to display the form that got him to the UFC when compiled a five-fight streak including four finishes.
PREDICTION
We know what to expect from Anders who has solid wrestling and waits in his southpaw stance to uncork his huge left bomb. We have only seen Arroyo once in the UFC where he got out grappled but he is a strong grappler himself and hits like a truck so this will be a thrilling contest.
If Anders decides to wrestle, he will have to be wary of Arroyo’s submission threat but in all likelihood, this should be a stand-up war. Anders is expected to set up his left hand with level changes, threatening the takedown and clinch but will have to be fluid on the feet.
Arroyo gives up two inches of reach but he fights long and has a Thiago Santos about him, with monstrous leg kicks, popping in and out of range. He is also very powerful in the clinch so Anders will struggle to control him.
Their grappling should cancel each other out and if they maintain the range, we will see some violent exchanges with either man capable of a knockout. If Arroyo can chop Anders down with leg kicks and kicks to the body, he can set up a finish or bank the first two rounds, but he has to watch out for that left hand.
Prediction: Arroyo via Decision
BRENDAN ALLEN VS SEAN STRICKLAND
The COVID-19 hammer struck again forcing Ian Heinisch out of his fight with Brendan Allen (15-3) last week. Thankfully, Allen still gets a fight and another opportunity to prove he is becoming a serious threat in the division. The former Legacy Fighting Alliance middleweight champion is on a seven-fight win streak including three impressive hard-fought UFC wins. He submitted Kevin Holland, knocked out Tom Breese and is coming off a recent unanimous decision over Kyle Daukaus.
Sean Strickland (21-3) is the man stepping up fresh after his win over Jack Marshman only two weeks ago at UFC Vegas 12. It was his first fight in two years after suffering that devastating motorcycle crash which required knee surgery. It must have been a satisfying return earning a unanimous decision but mainly just to be back in the octagon slugging it out.
PREDICTION
This is a catchweight bout at 195 lbs as it is a short notice fight and they match-up very similarly physically. Strickland looked great up at middleweight and outstruck Marshman who is an excellent boxer by 106 to 48 strikes. He walked him down and overwhelmed him with his output and that is exactly what he will try and do to Allen.
They match up very similarly physically and Allen is also a dangerous striker but there is a very low chance he is going to stand and trade in front of Strickland for very long. Strickland is a decent wrestler with good jiu-jitsu but Allen is just a level above and if he can get Strickland down he will work tirelessly to inflict the first submission loss of Strickland’s career.
Prediction: Allen via Submission
ASHLEY YODER VS MIRANDA GRANGER
Ashley Yoder (7-6) is 2-5 in the UFC which is more of a marker of how competitive the strawweight division is rather than her talent. That said, she is unlikely to ever break the top 10 with her only wins coming against Amanda Cooper and Syuri Kondo. After those back-to-back wins she has suffered back-to-back losses – a split decision a year ago against Randa Markos and a unanimous decision against Livia Renata Souza which came back in August.
Miranda Granger (7-1) got her UFC career up and running last year arriving to the octagon with an unbeaten record. She extended it on her debut by earning a unanimous decision over fellow debutant Hannah Goldy, but she is coming off the first loss of her career. She took on Amanda Lemos in December last year and received a taste of her own medicine getting submitted in the first round.
PREDICTION
Granger’s preparations for her loss to Lemos went badly and she has been out since after suffering blood clots in both lungs. Her fight with Nadia Kassem also got cancelled back in August but now she is ready and raring to go. We expect her to give a much better account of herself against Yoder, opening up with a consistent output and prepared to take the fight to the ground.
Yoder has better experience sharing the cage with better fighters and continues to evolve. She is also an excellent grappler and confident on the feet and we expect her to just about sway the judges. Every one of her UFC fights have gone to the bell and this could easily be a split decision.
Prediction: Yoder via Decision
ALEX MORONO VS RHYS MCKEE
Alex Morono (17-6 (1)) is coming off that crushing loss to Khoas Williams who is also on this card. Williams rushed out the gate swarming Morono with strikes eventually finding the knockout blow. It could not have gone much worse as Morono did not get a chance to get going and display the form that helped in string together three good wins in Song Kenan (unanimous decision), Zak Ottow (TKO) and Max Griffin (unanimous decision).
Rhys McKee (10-3-1) is also coming off a crushing loss and beating. He was fed to Khamzat Chimaev and did not even get a strike off as the prospect took him down and clobbered him until the TKO. Considering Chimaev’s stock, this is almost like a debut for McKee, starting afresh and getting a chance to display that finishing ability that saw him knock out Jefferson George, Hakon Foss and submitting Perry Goodwin for Cage Warriors before joining the UFC.
PREDICTION
Morono is not Chimaev but he is a very tough fight for McKee. He is very experienced with some good wins in the UFC. Like McKee, Morono also has a dangerous submission game but he is expected to keep the fight on the feet pursuing the knockout which is exactly what McKee will welcome.
McKee does not have that one-punch knockout power, but he is a sniper with his range and will have a six-inch reach advantage over Morono. The American is a durable heavy hitter and his experience makes him the favourite but McKee can frustrate him with his jab keeping him at the end of his range. If McKee settles and increases his output as the fight goes on he could lure Morono in and counter attack with his accuracy. It would be the biggest win of his career but he could just pull off the upset and a flawless performance would see him get a late knockout.
Prediction: McKee via KO/TKO
JOSE ALBERTO QUINONEZ VS LOUIS SMOLKA
Jose Alberto Quinonez (8-4) returns after that first-round dismantling Sean O’Malley inflicted upon him in March. He is now 5-3 in the UFC having streaks cut down by prospects. Nathaniel Wood submitted him after his first four UFC wins but he did respond with a unanimous decision win over Carlos Huachin and he hopes to do the same at the APEX.
Louis Smolka (16-7) was once a prospect, but inconsistency has really hampered his career. Sitting on 11-1, he went on a four-fight skid and was forced to regain his confidence outside the UFC. After three wins he returned in 2018 and has gone 2-2 coming off a submission loss to Casey Kenney but he has shown glimpses of his old self.
PREDICTION
Despite Smolka’s seven submission wins and Quinonez having ‘jiu-jitsu’ tattooed on his chest, they have shown holes in their ground game, but it will be a great contest if they decide to grapple. However, the majority of this fight is likely to be played out on the feet which will be very competitive.
They are both rangy bantamweights with high volume striking. Quinonez will cause problems from is southpaw position but Smolka should edge the stand-up battle calling upon his experience and mixing in wrestling when needed to earn the decision.
Prediction: Smolka via Decision
RANDA MARKOS VS KANAKO MURATA
Randa Markos (10-9-1) steps in for Livia Renata Souza who pulled out with injury hoping to pick up a much-needed win. She paved the way with the first crop of UFC fighters, but the talent just keeps pouring in. She has picked up some great wins including a decision over Carla Esparza and submission over Angela Hill, but she is coming off two losses. Firstly, a dominant decision to Amanda Ribas and then walked right into the den of Mackenzie Dern getting submitted with ease by the jiu-jitsu champion.
She takes on a UFC debutant for a change in the form of Kanako Murata (11-1). She is a very intriguing prospect from Japan who is a national judo champion and has medalled in the Asian Wrestling Championships. Her sole loss came in 2016 in the Rizin Grand Prix getting submitted by Rin Nakai but she has since stormed to seven straight wins and won the vacant Invicta title in her last fight a year ago by beating Emily Ducote via split decision.
PREDICTION
Interestingly, Markos is the underdog here, perhaps after deciding to take Dern to the ground. She is a huge step-up in competition for Murata and she has been sharing the cage with the best strawweights in the world for years.
That said, Murata’s skills are undeniable and her grappling is strong enough to take Markos down and keep her there. Markos is a good grappler but her takedown defence will be a worry so she will be wise to keep the fight standing. She may have the confidence to go toe-to-toe with Murata in the grappling exchanges but cannot afford to end up on her back.
This will be very competitive, but we are backing Markos and her experience to pull off the upset with a finish being very unlikely.
Prediction: Markos via Decision
GERALDO DE FREITAS VS TONY GRAVELY
We have not seen Geraldo de Freitas (12-5) since August 2019 where he agonisingly got his seven-fight win streak snapped by Chris Gutierrez who got the nod in a split decision. This came after his unanimous decision win over Felipe Colares on his debut
Tony Gravely (19-6) has also been licking his wounds after getting a seven-fight win streak snapped. After knocking Ray Rodriguez on Dana White’s Contender Series, he finally made his UFC debut in January this year but got submitted in the third round by Brett Johns.
PREDICTION
Gravely is the favourite but his five submission losses will wet the appetite of the Brazilian. Gravely’s losses were to studs including Ricky Bandejas and Manny Bermudez as well as taking Merab Dvalishvili to a decision but he has a lot of potential.
Gravely is very explosive with solid wrestling and will be dangerous on the feet. De Freitas has the clear advantage on the ground, but he is also a decent striker using his range well. He will have a slight height and reach advantage and will look to set up takedowns by mixing in strikes. If he avoids getting caught and eventually gets the fight to the ground, you have to back him to pull off the upset with a submission.
Prediction: De Freitas via Submission
DON’TALE MAYES VS ROQUE MARTINEZ
Don’Tale Mayes (7-4) is desperate to get his first UFC win after getting submitted in his first two outings in the octagon. The heavy hitter arrived to the UFC 7-2 but was given terrible match-ups in the form of top prospect, Ciryl Gane and submission specialist Rodrigio Nascimento.
He takes on Roque Martinez (15-6) who is also looking for his first UFC win after a terrible match-up on his UFC debut. Coming off a couple knockouts over Seigo Mizuguchi and Hideki Sekine, he walked out onto the big stage with Alexandr Romanov who threw him around the cage before submitting him.
PREDICTION
Both seismic sluggers will be grateful they are not up against grapplers and we should see these guys throw until someone drops. It will be a slow fight they both do not need many strikes to turn the lights out. Martinez can easily catch Mayes, but Mayes’ nine inch reach and eight inch height advantage will help him land until he connects with the final blow to land the fifth knockout of his career.