UFC 254 - Full Card Breakdown & Predicitons
When is UFC 254? Saturday 24th September, 2020 - 17:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 254? Flash Forum, Fight Island, Abu Dhabi (UAE)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 254? No tickets are available as this event will take place
What channel is UFC 254 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC 254? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
KHABIB NURMAGOMEDOV VS JUSTIN GAETHJE
Khabib Nurmagomedov (28-0) makes his entrance on Fight Island protecting his crown and incredible unbeaten record, a record that is unlikely to ever be matched. He is one of the best and most dominant fighters in MMA history, but this is only his third title defence. He collected the belt in the circus that was UFC 223 earning a unanimous decision over Al Iaquinta and then submitted Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier in his title defences. He is building one of the greatest lightweight title runs but now faces his toughest match-up stylistically.
Justin Gaethje’s (22-2) skill set on paper, at least in our opinion, has provided the biggest threat to Nurmagomedov for years and after his back-to-back knockout losses to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier, Gaethje has added a cerebral facet to his game that has turned him into a title contender. He proceeded to walk through James Vick, Edson Barboza, Donald Cerrone and most impressively, Tony Ferguson who he pummelled for five rounds, snapping his 12-fight winning streak and notching his 19th knockout.
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PREDICTION
The question with every Nurmagomedov fight is, can his opponent defend the takedown and the answer is always no. But what separates Gaethje from other lightweights is his elite wrestling as a Division 1 All American and although we have barely seen any of it in the UFC, it is still in his locker. It will not be enough to defend the takedown or spring straight back up for the whole fight, but it may help him keep the fight standing long enough to unleash his own threat.
Gaethje is not reckless anymore executing the strategies Trevor Wittman create while being more patient and getting out of unnecessary danger. Gaethje has already outlined his strategy for Nurmagomedov and that is to keep his back off the fence and disable him with a few of his monster leg kicks.
A couple takedowns defended, a couple leg kicks and a couple bombs to the dome could put Nurmagomedov in waters he has never been before but the key is for Gaethje to stay in the middle of the octagon at all costs. Gaethje is ready but even though Nurmagomedov is predictable, his grappling is an unstoppable force and if he can get near the cage, Gaethje’s energy bar will wither away under relentless ground-and-pound and submission attempts.
Gaethje has the best chance of dethroning the champion but it does not mean he is immune to another mauling. Nurmagomedov will struggle to break Gaethje but he is unlikely to take any risks as he rabidly hunts the takedown, smothering him, and forcing a late submission or a hard-fought decision.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov via Submission
ROBERT WHITTAKER VS JARED CANNONIER
Robert Whittaker (21-5) is back on Fight Island with that new fire burning in his belly. After that crushing knockout loss to Israel Adesanya, losing his first fight as a middleweight and handing over his title, Whittaker did some soul searching to rekindle his love of the game. He returned in July on Fight Island to take on Darren Till and came out victorious in a unanimous decision proving he is still one of the very best middleweights in the world.
Promised a title shot with an impressive win, Jared Cannonier (13-4) has begun blazing a trail in the middleweight division. His success has coincided with streamlining his physique. He started his career as a chubby heavyweight and went 1-1 in the UFC. He dropped to light heavyweight going 2-3 but his losses were to Glover Teixeira, Jan Blachowicz and Dominick Reyes which proved to be priceless experience. He then dropped to 185 lbs and clearly maintained his power knocking out David Branch, crushing Anderson Silva’s leg and now coming off a knockout over Jack Hermansson.
PREDICTION
Cannonier is a former heavyweight and Whittaker is a former welterweight, but they are both natural middleweights. Cannonier has more power, particularly in his hands but Whittaker makes up the difference with the technique, in his striking and in his wrestling.
Cannonier at 185 lbs is scary and his new speed combined with his knockout power is clearly his biggest threat. Whittaker is tried and tested against explosive strikers, but we are only just realising what Cannonier is capable of in the division. Whittaker’s 50 minutes with Yoel Romero and 25 with Till is very valuable here but he inevitably ate shots and there is only so many you can consume against Cannonier.
Although he lost, Cannonier’s fights with Blachowicz and Reyes will give him confidence as well as having a four-inch reach advantage so Whittaker’s defence and awkward combinations will be crucial to winning the exchanges. He is unlikely to call upon his wrestling so this is going be a violent battle, slow-paced but with fiery exchanges which could easily end in a knockout either way.
Cannonier is the real deal at middleweight but if the best version of Whittaker turns up, he has the fight IQ, technique, durability and cardio to finish stronger and only fighting three rounds will allow him to display it all.
Prediction: Whittaker via KO/TKO
ALEXANDER VOLKOV VS WALT HARRIS
Alexander Volkov (31-8) is back and with a fresh tat. He is coming off a loss in June suffering the same fate many suffer against Curtis Blaydes. Over the course of five rounds, he was taken down 14 times and controlled for nearly 20 minutes of the bout. Very frustrating for the striker but now he has a willing slugger to dance with on Fight Island.
Walt Harris (13-8(1)) is also coming off a loss. He returned after the tragic death of his stepdaughter showing incredible courage just to make it through a training camp and enter the octagon. To make things more difficult he took on the legend, Alistair Overeem and almost put him away but the crafty veteran called upon all of his skills to eventually get the finish in the second round.
PREDICTION
Volkov will not enjoy his usual substantial reach advantage but will still have three inches on Harris which will be important. Volkov is very technical and uses his reach well. He can easily outclass Harris on the feet, but his skills will count for nothing if Harris connects with one of his bombs.
Expect Harris to be patient waiting to explode into range and unleash on Volkov’s jaw. The Russian will have to approach this the same way as his fight with Derrick Lewis but could do with out getting sparked with 10 seconds remaining. He controlled the fight for three rounds, picking Lewis apart and avoiding his right hand and we are backing him to do the same against Harris but not making the same mistakes and even walking away with a late knockout.
Prediction: Volkov via KO/TKO
JACOB MALKOUN VS PHIL HAWES
Jacob Malkoun (4-0) makes his UFC debut and what an occasion, UFC 254 on Fight Island where his training partner, Robert Whittaker graces the co-main event with Jared Cannonier. Malkoun is clearly highly thought of by the UFC, handing him a debut on the main card after just two amateur and four professional fights. He has fought for different promotions and coming off a unanimous decision win over Sebastian Temesi for Eternal MMA a year ago.
He takes on another UFC debutant, Phil Hawes (8-2) who was awarded the contract after folding Khadzhimurat Bestaev like laundry last month on Dana White’s Contender Series. That impressive win made it four-in-a-row for Hawes continuing his 100% finish rate of six knockouts and two submissions displaying a skill set that could be a real problem in the middleweight division.
PREDICTION
Malkoun is obviously not very experienced but he has three wins as a professional boxer and is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt winning the ADCC Asia Trials last year. He has a lot of pedigree and training with one of the best middleweights in the world will only help. He is very well-rounded, and he will be happy to stand with Hawes and ideally get the fight to the mat to unleash his ground-and-pound and even look for a submission.
Like Malkoun, Hawes is unproven at this level, but he is an absolute beast and athletic specimen. He is also well-rounded with ferocious hands and explosive wrestling. He mixes his striking in with his wrestling seamlessly but may ignore his wrestling considering Malkoun’s ground skills.
This is a hard fight for both men and it will be a fascinating battle wherever it goes. We are backing Hawes’ speed and power to catch Malkoun to set up a finish, but this is a tough one to call.
Prediction: Hawes via KO/TKO
LAUREN MURPHY VS LILIYA SHAKIROVA
Lauren Murphy (13-4) is coming off two of the biggest wins of her career. After losing a unanimous decision to Sijara Eubanks, she bounced back with a brilliant late finish and knockout over Mara Romero Borella and made it three-in-a-row by earning a split decision over Andrea Lee and a unanimous decision in her last outing over Roxanne Modafferi.
Liliya Shakirova (8-1) makes the trip from her native Uzbekistan to make her UFC debut filling in for Cynthia Calvillo who had to pull out after testing positive for COVID-19. She has accrued her record under a variety of promotions with her only loss coming to Julia Borisova in 2018. She is also now on a three-fight win streak and coming off her third knockout which came against Aygul Abduvakhid a year ago.
PREDICTION
Murphy is the clear favourite against the debutant stepping up on short notice. Shakirova is solid on the feet with the ability to comfortably switch stances but her main strength is her wrestling with dangerous ground-and-pound.
However, she will not bring anything to the table Murphy has not seen before. The durability of Shakirova will make it hard work for Murphy but she has the striking, grappling and experience to control the fight and walk away with a decision at least.
Prediction: Murphy via Decision
MAGOMED ANKALAEV VS ION CUTELABA
UFC 254 is hoping to prove this fight is not cursed. This rematch scheduling is fourth time lucky for Magomed Ankalaev (14-1) and Ion Cutelaba (15-5(1)) after their controversial scrap back at UFC Fight Night 169. Ankalaev pulled out of UFC 249 due to travel restrictions related to COVID-19 and then Cutelaba ended up testing positive prior to UFC 252. Cutelaba then tested positive again on the day of UFC Vegas 8 but now hopefully they get to settle the score.
Ankalaev walked away with the first round TKO win in their original clash in February but it was a very controversial stoppage. They quickly engaged and Cutelaba played possum, pretending to be hurt to lure Ankalaev in. However, referee Kevin MacDonald fell for Cutelaba’s acting and stepped in to stop the fight feeling he was preventing the Moldovian from sustaining more damage. It was a shame which has been compounded by the rescheduling so let’s hope they make it to the octagon as it is guaranteed fireworks.
PREDICTION
The first fight started as expected with both men wasting no time in pursuing the knockout. Although it ruined the fight, Cutelaba playing possum was a plan to force the brawl where he thought he would come out on top. Considering Ankalaev’s striking credentials this was a good idea.
Cutelaba obviously will not risk the same mistake this time but he is expected to try and get the fight in a phone booth i.e close the distance and throw heavy leather in the pocket. However, the problem is that Ankalaev is a cool, calm and calculated killer who can attack from various angles and if Cutelaba loiters in the pocket for too long, the Russian will be waiting to explode with that left kick.
Ankalaev should also be more patient this time around but that does not mean he is safe from Cutelaba. If Cutelaba can come in with a different strategy and even shoot in for takedowns in between throwing his powerful combinations, his monster overhand right has more chance of landing.
Cutelaba is always worth a bet when his opponent is happy to stand but Ankalaev’s sambo and wrestling should allow him to dictate where the fight goes countering Cutelaba’s takedowns and eventually finding the knockout.
Prediction: Ankalaev via KO/TKO
STEFAN STRUVE VS TAI TUIVASA
After picking up the 18th submission of his career wrapping Marcos Rogerio de Lima up in an arm-triangle, Stefan Struve (29-12) fulfilled his contract and flirted with retirement. Fortunately, after a few months off, he signed a new deal and fought Ben Rothwell back in December. Unfortunately for him, he got knocked out losing his fourth fight in his last five. The heavyweight division can be brutal and it does not get any easier.
Tai Tuivasa (9-3) has tasted that brutality losing his last three fights. Prior to this, he was undefeated coming off a win over Andrei Arlovski, but he then met the former champion Junior dos Santos getting knocked out in the second round. He then got outpointed by Blagoy Ivanov and submitted by Sergey Spivak via arm triangle which will wet the lips of Struve.
PREDICTION
Most Struve fights leave you scratching your head as to why he does not make the most out of his reach. He will have a nine-inch arm and 10-inch height advantage, but you would still back Tuivasa in the stand-up battle.
The Aussie is deceptively quick and his explosiveness will allow him to burst into the pocket and offload on Struve’s chin. Struve could keep Tuivasa at a distance with his jab but his best chance is to get the fight to the floor. His length combined with his technique will tie Tuivasa up like putty but he has to get him off his feet first.
If the fight goes to the floor you have to back Struve for a submission but Tuivasa knows he just needs to avoid the takedown and his dynamism should allow him to stay on his feet and break the range of Struve to deliver a flurry and vintage knockout.
Prediction: Tuivasa via KO/TKO
NATHANIEL WOOD VS CASEY KENNEY
One of the brightest prospects coming out of England is Nathaniel Wood (17-4) who is primed to make a march up the bantamweight division after suffering his first loss in the UFC. He had a lot of hype around him sitting on an eight-fight win streak and winning his first three UFC fights all via submission. However, he was handed UFC veteran and former title challenger, John Dodson and got derailed suffering a TKO in the third round. However, he dusted himself off and came to Fight Island in July to get back in the win column with a unanimous decision over John Castaneda.
He takes on another bantamweight prospect in the shape of Casey Kenney (15-2-1). His only loss in his last nine fights was to Merab Dvalishvili and in his run up to the UFC he won the LFA interim bantamweight championship with a unanimous decision win over Brandon Royval. He is already on Fight Island and fresh off his unanimous decision win over Heili Alateng three weeks ago to add to his impressive collection of UFC scalps already, including Ray Borg, Manny Bermudez and Louis Smolka.
PREDICTION
This is a catchweight bout at 140 lbs and it is a fascinating match-up on paper. Wood is a natural striker who has added a very dangerous ground game whereas Kenney is a natural judoka and wrestler who has added striking to his game.
As good as Wood is on the ground with his submission threat, he will not want to risk being smothered under Kenney, so he is likely to try and keep the fight standing and look for the knockout. He has better technique on the feet and the speed to light Kenney up, so he will be wise to stick to his strengths and wrestle.
This is a very close fight to call and if it plays out on the feet you have to back Wood and he also possesses the submission threat on the ground. Kenney may have paid attention to Wood’s second round with Dodson where the American subdued him in the clinch. Kenney has the wrestling to nullify Wood’s threats to grind out a decision but if he backs his striking it will be a long night for him.
Prediction: Wood via Decision
ALEX OLIVEIRA VS SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV
Alex Olveira (22-8-1(2)) steps in for Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos who will be on the side lines for a while requiring knee surgery. Oliveira is always game and is coming off two much-need wins. The vet lost three in a row to: Gunnar Nelson (submission), Mike Perry (unanimous decision) and Nicolas Dalby (unanimous decision) which is unknown territory for the Brazilian who had not even lost two in a row before. However, he has responded with a split decision over Max Griffin and a unanimous decision over Peter Sobotta which both came this year.
No one is more grateful for Oliveira stepping up than Shavkat Rakhmonov (12-0) as he still gets to make his UFC debut. A long-awaited debut as he has blitzed through all of his opponents so far finishing all of them (seven knockouts and five submissions). The majority of his fights have under the M-1 banner and he is coming off knockouts over Danila Prikaza and Tiago Varejao Lacerda both last year.
PREDICTION
Oliveira has all the experience and fought twice this year including his last fight on Fight Island whereas Rakhmonov makes his debut on the big stage and has not fought for 16 months. There is a lot of hype around Rakhmonov but this is a huge test for him.
Oliveira is a seasoned weapon on the feet and a very strong grappler, dangerous everywhere. Rakhmonov is a beast and unknown entity in the UFC which makes him very dangerous and if Oliveira is complacent, he will have a rude awakening.
Rakhmonov is also a dangerous striker and has a slick submission game so this will be a compelling battle wherever it goes. Oliveira is the slight favourite, but we are backing Rakhmonov to shine on his debut. He has finished all of his opponents, but Oliveira has only been knocked out once and only submitted by high-level black belts. A finish would be incredible, but a decision would still be the biggest highlight of his career.
Prediction: Rakhmonov via Decision
DA UN JUNG VS SAM ALVEY
Da Un Jung (13-2) flies to Fight Island while flying on a 12-fight win streak. The South Korean arrived to the UFC with question marks about whether he can transfer his performances in the regional scene to the upper echelon of the UFC and so far he has passed with flying colours. He met Khadis Ibragimov who was unbeaten at the time for his debut and guillotined him in the third round and now he is coming off a ruthless knockout over Mike Rodriguez back in December.
He now has a UFC veteran to get past in the form of Sam Alvey (33-14(1)). He walks out for his 19th UFC fight, but he is on a lonely four-fight skid. After starching Marcin Prachnio and outpointing Gian Villante, Alvey got knocked out by Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Jimmy Crute before losing close decisions to Klidson Abreu and Ryan Spann.
PREDICTION
Alvey has all the experience but the pressure is on him to prevent losing five in a row which could be terminal to his UFC career. Unfortunately for him this is not a great match-up either.
Alvey will stand and trade with anyone but Jung is durable and has serious power in his hands. We are all aware of the power Alvey possesses in his hands but if he decides to exchange with Jung, it will not pretty.
Alvey needs to keep moving and mix things up to try and set up a knockout blow as Jung is lethal at close range. He is also extremely dangerous on the floor with heavy ground-and-pound with a submission threat.
Alvey will make it difficult for the South Korean but the odds are stacked against him here.
Prediction: Jung via KO/TKO
LIANA JOJUA VS MIRANDA MAVERICK
After bouncing back after her first loss in six fights, Liana Jojua (8-3) is hungry to get a run going. She lost her UFC debut back in September last year eventually getting finished by Sarah Moras in the third round. However, she got back to winning ways by notching the sixth submission win of her career which came against Diana Belbita in July.
Miranda Maverick (7-2) heads to Fight Island to make her UFC debut. She has made her name for Invicta FC in similar fashion to Jojua by racking up the submissions and is coming off three wins on the bounce. Her last loss was to DeAnna Bennett losing a unanimous decision but responded by cinching Heather Walker-Leahy in a guillotine and then getting revenge over Bennett by submitting her with a brutal neck crank. She then went on to pick up another big win by outpointing Pearl Gonzalez back in February.
PREDICTION
We have two submission specialists so it would be great to see them scrap on the mat. However, we could see an uneventful striking battle if they respect each other’s ground skills. Someone will need to take the initiative and be the aggressor.
The grappling exchanges will be fiercely competitive but if they decide to keep the fight standing, do not expect a knockout with Jojua squeaking out a decision
Prediction: Jojua via Decision
JOEL ALVAREZ VS ALEXANDER YAKOVLEV
Joel Alvarez (17-2) flies to Fight Island for the second time with the whole of Spain behind him. He has only lost once in his last 13 fights but that was against Damir Ismagulov who is currently on a 14-fight win streak. Not the kindest of UFC debuts but the Spaniard showed what he is capable of in his next fight against Danilo Belluardo, knocking him out in the second round. He then followed it up on Fight Island back in July by picking off Joe Duffy and ruthlessly finishing him with a guillotine.
Alexander Yakovlev (25-10-1) has not quite had the same success in MMA as other martial arts but he is still a multi-skilled beast. He went 2-4 in the UFC including losses to Demian Maia and Kamaru Usman and then took two and a half years off after a submission loss to Zak Cummings in November 2016. He came back in April last year and returned to lightweight and ended up submitting Alex da Silva Coelho but then lost his fifth UFC fight to Roosevelt Roberts with a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
Yakovlev talents are undeniable in the likes of Sambo and wrestling, but we have not seen any consistency in the UFC. He has also floated between different weight classes fighting as heavy as light heavyweight. He strips back down to 155 lbs for this one where he is very rangy for the division.
However, so is Alvarez. They both stand at 6’3” but Alvarez will boast a three-inch reach advantage. This is a great match-up on paper but the consistency and momentum of Alvarez swing this in his favour.
Yakovlev is the stronger all-round grappler but Alvarez’ ground skills are no joke and the Russian will have to be cautious getting tied up on the mat as Alvarez' submission skills are lethal, even off his back. His striking is also improving with each fight and if he uses his range and movement while avoiding Yakovlev’s left high kick, he can find a damaging blow to set up a finish on the ground.