UFC 246 - Red Panty Night Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC 246? Sunday 19th January, 2020 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 246? T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, Nevada
What channel is UFC 246 on? BT Sport Box Office (19.95)
Where can I stream UFC 246? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ which can you sign up to here!
Are tickets still available for UFC 246? https://www.ufc.com/tickets
Conor McGregor vs Donald Cerrone
Conor McGregor is back, and the man rewarded with the ‘red panty night’ is Donald Cerrone which is fully deserved and creates a thrilling match-up.
‘The Notorious’ one is finally back in action after his grudge match defeat to Khabib Nurmagomedov. That loss was his only MMA fight since becoming the first ever simultaneous two-division champion back in 2016 when he put on a boxing clinic to dust off Eddie Alvarez. Controversies outside the octagon and a hand injury have kept McGregor out but now the UFC have their biggest star back to jack up the pay-per-view numbers.
Fan-favourite and the UFC record holder for the most wins, most finishes, most knockdowns and tied most bouts in UFC history – ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone is the man assigned to create the spectacle and the fight will be at welterweight which should favour the veteran as the bigger man. However, he is coming off two beatings - a doctor’s stoppage loss against Tony Ferguson and another knockout loss to Justin Gaethje only four months ago but this is business as usual for ‘Cowboy’.
PREDICTION
Out of all the fights available for McGregor, this is such a good pairing as we should see both men in their element, hunting a knockout with masterful technique. Cerrone is a better grappler but McGregor’s perceived lack of grappling skills is exaggerated and Cerrone’s ego is likely to keep the fight standing anyway to hunt the finish.
We expect vintage McGregor to show up at UFC 246. He appears to be more motivated and hungry whereas Cerrone is cashing in after two brutal losses. That said, you can never count ‘Cowboy’ out with his skill set. Cerrone needs to start quickly and not let McGregor settle and download the data he needs to dictate the distance. Cerrone is worth a bet as the underdog but this is a good stylistic match-up for McGregor despite the size difference.
With all of the tape on Cerrone, Conor is expected to set a series of traps to set up his left hand and we know he has the power to finish with one combination.
Winner: McGregor via KO/TKO
Holly Holm vs Raquel Pennington
The rematch between Holly Holm and Raquel Pennington is back on after Holm had to pull out of UFC 243 with an injury. Thankfully she is healthy to duke it out with fellow UFC veteran and support the main event between Conor McGregor and Donald Cerrone.
Holm took home the spoils in their first fight which was her welcome party to the UFC. The champion boxer was handed the stern test with the powerful grappler and although it was a split decision, she passed it with flying colours defending every takedown attempt.
Since then, Holm has had a storied UFC career going 5-5 including five title fights. She unforgettably head kicked Ronda Rousey out of ‘Goddess’ status but has struggled to replicate that feat coming up against some of the best female fighters in MMA history including Miesha Tate, Valentina Shevchenko, Germaine de Randamie, Cris Cyborg and Amanda Nunes who just handed her the first knockout of her career in devastating fashion.
Pennington has an unflattering record of 10-7 but that’s what happens when you fight the majority of your career in the UFC. Since suffering serious injuries outside the cage she has struggled to match the performance she pulled off against Miesha Tate although she was pitted against Nunes and De Randamie on her return. However, she got back to winning ways in her last fight against Irene Aldana with a split decision.
PREDICTION
Although their first fight was all the way back in 2015 and both fighters have improved considerably since, it is difficult to see this going a different way. Pennington has a clear grappling advantage and Holm has a clear striking advantage so it will all come down to Holm’s takedown defence which has got even better since their first fight.
Holm is expected to keep the fight on the feet and leverage her impeccable movement and cardio to outwork and out-strike Pennington with her durability dragging the fight to another decision.
Winner: Holm via Decision
Alexey Oleynik vs Maurice Greene
Alexey Oleynik and Maurice Greene will be as thankful as anyone to be on the same card as Conor McGregor and Donald Cerrone but their main focus is to get back on winning track after knockout losses.
Oleynik is coming off two knockouts in fact. Firstly, to Alistair Overeem and recently to Walt Harris. These losses came after the 44th and 45th submission wins of his career so surely, he will rely on his bread and butter against another dangerous striker.
Greene’s recent loss is the first knockout loss of his career which came courtesy of Sergei Pavlovich who was just too powerful for him on the night. The Ultimate Fighter alum racked up three wins prior but will have to be at his best to make it four UFC wins.
PREDICTION
Greene only has a two-inch reach advantage, but he can accentuate it with his height. He should look to keep Oleynik at a distance with his jab and set up powerful counters and connect when Oleynik shoots in for a takedown.
However, Oleynik will be dangerous with his unorthodox striking and will use all his experience to find a way to get the fight to the ground where Greene is highly skilled but there is still a gulf in class.
Winner: Oleynik via Submission
Claudia Gadelha vs Alexa Grasso
Claudia Gadelha and Alexa Grasso lock horns at UFC 246 hoping to progress up the rankings in a division that has become excitingly stacked.
Gadelha was originally scheduled to fight Cynthia Calvillo at UFC on ESPN 7 but was forced out with a bad ankle injury. However, she has made a quick return and hopes to string two wins together after outclassing Randa Markos in response to losing a decision against Nina Ansaroff.
Grasso is looking to bounce back after a loss herself. She was out-grappled by former champion Carla Esparza which has stifled her rise. Her three losses have come to top-tier wrestlers, but she continues to evolve and looked like a future title contender with her stand-up performance against Karolina Kowalkiewicz which she will help to build upon in this one.
PREDICTION
If the fight remains on the feet, we should expect Grasso to enter as an even more finely tuned striker and use her excellent timing, speed and movement to pepper Gadelha at will.
However, Gadelha is one of the best grapplers in the division and even has a win over Esparza. If the Brazilian is healthy, she is expected to take the fight away from the Mexican by keeping the fight on the mat. Grasso is capable of surprising, but this is not a god match-up for her.
Winner: Gadelha via Decision
Anthony Pettis vs Carlos Diego Ferreira
Anthony ‘Showtime’ Pettis moves back down to lightweight but no glamour match-up this time. Instead, an incredibly tough fight against Carlos Diego Ferreira.
Pettis has had a topsy-turvy time in the UFC. The former lightweight champion has not had one easy fight and duked it out in the featherweight and welterweight division. After submitting Chiesa and losing a bloody war against Tony Ferguson, he moved up to welterweight to take on one of the best technical strikers in the sport – Stephen Thompson. Pettis proceeded to live up to his nickname with an electrifying ‘superman punch’ to hand Thompson his first ever knockout loss. However, he was brought back down to earth with a dominant decision loss to Nate Diaz.
Ferreira has flown completely under the radar in the stacked division. He is on a five-fight winning streak but although there are no Hollywood names on the streak, they were all tough opponents. He earned a decision over Olivier Aubin-Mercier and then two years later knocked out Jared Gordon and Kyle Nelson. He is coming off two more unanimous decisions against beast grappler Rustam Khabilov and monster striker Mairbek Taisumov breaking their impressive winning streaks.
PREDICTION
This fight will depend on what Pettis turns up. He has the skills to beat most lightweights on his day but if he does not treat Ferreira the same way as his previous elite opponents, he will be in for a shock.
Like Pettis, Ferreira is a phenomenal Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner and also dangerous on the feet. So, although there is little to gain for Pettis, he has to be motivated for this one. On the biggest stage, on a Conor McGregor card and the biggest name Ferreira has faced, motivation for him will be in abundance.
Winner: Ferreira via Decision
Striking and grappling stats sourced via FightMetric.