UFC 240 - Canada Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC 240? Sunday 28th July, 2019 – 01:00 (UK)
Where is UFC 240? Rogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
What channel is UFC 240? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 240? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ which can you sign up to here!
Are tickets still available for UFC 240? https://www.ufc.com/tickets
Max Holloway vs Frankie Edgar
Third time lucky for Max Holloway and Frankie Edgar who have had two scraps pulled due to injuries. This is also third time lucky for Edgar who has patiently waited for his third featherweight title fight and, in the meantime, Holloway has gone about his business in attempting to clean out the division.
A 13-fight winning streak saw Holloway march up the ranks, dethrone the featherweight king Jose Aldo, finish him again in a rematch and then defend the belt for a second time against Brian Ortega to stake his own claim as the best featherweight of all time. However, he is coming off a loss after stepping up to lightweight for a chance to win the interim title but was outclassed by a prime Dustin Poirier.
We haven’t seen Edgar for over a year when he claimed the 12th decision win of his career against Cub Swanson, which was in response to the first knockout loss of his career against Ortega. That match with Ortega was supposed to be against Holloway and the Hawaiian’s injury could not have worked out worse for Edgar. However, the past achievements of the legend have granted him this opportunity and we all know never to count out ‘The Answer’.
PREDICTION
Edgar is the underdog; he is past his prime and up against a young and dominant champion but that means nothing as he has the heart to overcome any odds. Holloway dwarfs Edgar but that is business as usual for the New Jersey native and he also only gives up a one-inch reach advantage which will be important when Edgar sets up his takedowns with jabs and level changes.
‘The Answer’ knows he has to take the fight to the floor and you just have to revisit Holloway’s dismantling of Aldo and Ortega to see why. ‘Blessed’ may submit the odd takedown but he has the ability to spring straight back up and get back to his bread and butter which will be harvesting his opponent on the feet.
There will be scrambles but Holloway is expected to control to majority of the fight with his expert distance control, getting better as the fight grows and piling on the damage with his hands. Edgar’s heart is likely to pull him to a decision but don’t be surprised by a late finish.
Winner: Holloway via KO/TKO
Cris Cyborg vs Felicia Spencer
Cris Cyborg returns after that infamous knockout loss to Amanda Nunes. Her future is unclear with one fight left on her contract and she travels to Canada to be welcomed by Felicia Spencer who has only had one UFC fight but boasts an unblemished record.
This is unknown territory for Cyborg after Nunes stopped off at featherweight to knock her out in the first round and walk away with her belt. This was her first loss in 22 fights but we know she is still a monster who simply crossed paths with the greatest female fighter of all time.
After winning the vacant Invicta featherweight title by submitting Pam Sorenson, the UFC gave Spencer an opportunity to fight Megan Anderson in New York. Flying in under the radar, she put on one hell of a performance, finishing Anderson with the fourth rear-naked choke of her career.
PREDICTION
The game-plan for Spencer is clear and that is to take Cyborg down and search for a submission. This would be great to see as we have not had a chance to witness Cyborg’s ground skills yet.
However, the discrepancy on the feet will be clear. Spencer has not experienced power like Cyborg’s before and this power should prevent her from being controlled on the floor or in the clinch. This should create enough space for Cyborg to unleash her devastating striking arsenal and she only needs a couple of clean strikes to knock the wind out of the Canadian and set up a finish.
Winner: Cyborg via KO/TKO
Geoff Neal vs Niko Price
Two explosive middleweights are ready to light up Rogers Place and continue their rise up the division. Geoff Neal is looking for six wins on the bounce but Niko Price is confident of snapping the streak fresh off his knockout win over Tim Means.
Neal has achieved what few fighters have achieved so far and that’s looking better after stepping up to UFC competition. He was 8-2 pre-UFC but has gone on to submit Brian Camozzi, defeat Frank Camacho and earn a unanimous decision over Belal Muhammad.
Despite getting submitted by Vicente Luque and put to sleep by Abdul Razak Alhassan, Price has made a habit of finishing established middleweight contenders. In fact, he has only gone to a decision once in his career and all of his UFC wins have been super impressive submissions and knockouts.
PREDICTION
Only four out of their combined 29 fights have gone to a decision and it’s unlikely this will be a fifth. They are as skilled as they are athletic and have fight-ending power that will last for the three rounds.
Whoever has the best defence on the feet is likely to come out on top in this one. They are going to come out aggressive and hunt each other’s jaw and, considering their power, it could be over in a flash. This can so easily go either way but Price gets the nudge on account of his experience.
Winner: Price via KO/TKO
Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Arman Tsarukyan
The Canadian Gangster makes his third appearance in a row on home soil and is desperate to prevent a third loss but his matchups do not get any easier as Arman Tsarukyan flies over to spoil the party.
Aubin-Mercier strung four very impressive wins together prior to his two recent losses. He beat Thibault Gouti, Drew Dober, Rocco Martin and Evan Dunham but went on to lose decisions to Alexander Hernandez and Gilbert Burns.
As for Tsarukyan, he was unbeaten going into his UFC debut with Islam Makhachev. It was a baptism of fire as Makhachev, who trains with Khabib Nurmagomedov, is championship calibre but Tsarukyan surprised everyone with an excellent performance despite losing the decision. The Russian was expected to ragdoll Tsarukyan but he held his own in the grappling exchanges and even became the first fighter to take Makhachev down.
PREDICTION
Tsarukyan proved he is an exceptional talent and this will be a tremendously hard task for Aubin-Mercier. Tsarukyan proved he is a beast of a grappler but he also made a name for himself with his striking and knockout power.
The Canadian’s bread and butter is his grappling, in particular his Judo, so the grappling battle will be fascinating. Although Tsarukyan’s stats look woeful, bear in mind these are based off his fight with Machachev and Aubin-Mercier will be well aware of the threat on the feet.
Aubin-Mercier needs to have a solid game plan and call upon his experience to subdue his counterpart, but we feel Tsarukyan is the dark horse in the division and may surprise a lot of people on the night.
Winner: Tsarukyan via Decision
Marc-Andre Barriault vs Krzysztof Jotko
Marc-Andre Barriault makes his second UFC walk and it will be on home soil again as the Canadian looks to bounce back from a loss but he faces the experienced Krysztof Jotko who looks like regaining his old form.
Barriault was gutted to lose his UFC debut but it was an important lesson. He took on the talented grappler Andrew Sanchez who did well to subdue the powerful striker as he claimed a unanimous decision.
Jotko prevented a four-fight losing streak in his last fight as he won a unanimous decision of his own against Alen Amedovski. No one predicted Jotko would go on a three-fight skid as he only had one loss to his name going into those fights as he lost to David Branch, Uriah Hall and Brad Tavares.
PREDICTION
This is a very tough fight to call especially as we did not see Barriault at his best in his UFC debut. He is a monster on the feet with knockout power and needs to fight his natural way against Jotko.
Jotko does not have the power of the Canadian but he is also an exceptional striker and his experience will be a huge factor. Jotko will fancy himself in the striking exchanges but cannot afford to make any mistakes so if his defence is on point he will earn a much-needed win.
Winner: Jotko via Decision
Striking and grappling stats sourced via FightMetric